Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates

With the selection of 40mm for the OPVs I noticed that the Leonardo Oto Marlin 40 mm specified is small and light enough to potentially replace the 25mm Typhoon on a number of other RAN platforms. There are already programable fused 40mm rounds and I suspect a course corrected / guided option would not be far away, this system could be a game changer in self defence capability for RAN minor and auxiliary platforms.

Add in BAEs Adaptable Deck Launcher Adaptable Deck Launcher (ADL) | BAE Systems | United Statesand ESSMs compatibility with the Armys new LAND 19 Phase 7B Ground Based Air and Missile Defence project and integrated Australian CEA AESA sensor technology into the baseline NASAMS and there is serious potential to affordably increase the self defence capability of virtually every RAN surface platform (LHDs have it easy they could just tie down a 16 AD troop to the flight deck)

For a more out there suggestion.

With the planned continuous build programs we can expect to see orders for new ships to continue at regular intervals to maintain the building facilities in Adelaide and Henderson. There have already been additional hulls added to the OPV build for mine warfare and I can foresee the type eventually cascading into Customs service, replacing the Capes.

What I have wondered is, if the strategic continues to deteriorate, will the government begin upgrading the OPVs with weapon systems the design has space and weight for, or even replacing the OPVs (rerolled to mine warfare, Hydrographic and Customs) with more capable and survivable corvettes. With the selection of the Arrowhead 140 for the RNs Type 31e requirement, I wonder whether such a ship would be much more expensive to procure and operate than a high end corvette?

Personally I would be happier to see the status quo maintained on the minor warfare side and any extra money going to getting a transformational capability such as the F-35B to sea on a purpose built light carrier (or two / three), which would probably work out cheaper than moving from OPVs to Corvettes or light frigates (or the WA Mafias dream of Austal built Independence Class FFs). All fanciful at this point but Australia did try to build a battleship in 1939 (delusional but it was government policy in the prewar panic) and we did try to acquire carriers during the war (HMS Hermes was sunk before she could be transferred, early Colossus class CVLs were offered and there was even a plan for the RAN to crew commission and operate HMS Implacable and Indefatigable as part of the British Pacific Fleet). Far more realistic in this day and age to see Australian government investing in capability before it was too late and hopefully deterring war (just look at the transformation over the last twenty years, under three different governments, despite ideological differences they all invested in increased , more rounded capability).

Australia will probably always have a requirement for lightly manned and cheap to operate patrol vessels. If we did acquire a new class of patrol frigate or corvette I think it would be a new capability and not a direct replacement for our current OPVs.

Having said that I think that over the coming decades we could see the Australian navy being further expanded with a new class of small frigate/corvette sized warships.

alexsa said:

Dubbo went to Vanuatu and Micronesia (escorting a Pacific Class PB to its new owner). .... then we went to Guam .... so yep, they got about.

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HMAS FREMANTLE sailed from builders, Brooke Marine, Lowestoft, UK to Australia in1980 (with a number of stops along the way).

A number of ACPBs have deployed singly and in pairs into the Sulu Sea and along the Sulu Archipelago since 2017, conducting combined maritime security patrols and training activity with the Philippine Navy. Units have also replenished at Cebu.

OldNavy63 said:

HMAS FREMANTLE sailed from builders, Brooke Marine, Lowestoft, UK to Australia in1980 (with a number of stops along the way).

A number of ACPBs have deployed singly and in pairs into the Sulu Sea and along the Sulu Archipelago since 2017, conducting combined maritime security patrols and training activity with the Philippine Navy. Units have also replenished at Cebu.

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HMAS MAITLAND participated in Exercise Milan with the RNZN and several regional navies in vicinity of Port Blair in the Andaman Islands in 2008.

http://www.defence.gov.au/Publications/NewsPapers/Navy/editions/5102/5102.pdf

hauritz said:

Australia will probably always have a requirement for lightly manned and cheap to operate patrol vessels. If we did acquire a new class of patrol frigate or corvette I think it would be a new capability and not a direct replacement for our current OPVs.

Having said that I think that over the coming decades we could see the Australian navy being further expanded with a new class of small frigate/corvette sized warships.

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They would certainly provide a welcome layer in surface capability: Tier 1 DDGs and FFGs, Tier 2 Corvettes with SSM and helo and Tier 3 OPV some of which could be adapted to carry two or four UAV-cued SSM to further complicate an adversary’s planning.

hauritz said:

Australia will probably always have a requirement for lightly manned and cheap to operate patrol vessels. If we did acquire a new class of patrol frigate or corvette I think it would be a new capability and not a direct replacement for our current OPVs.

Having said that I think that over the coming decades we could see the Australian navy being further expanded with a new class of small frigate/corvette sized warships.

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I hope so. I'd love to see an expansion of the RAN.

You know China just launched it's 9th 052D destroyer this year? That's 1 a month!

When China has 1000 ships by 2040, 12 in 2040 Hunter's ain't gonna cut it. Pretty sure crew shortage won't be a problem by then!

Calculus said:

Posted this on the RCN thread as well, but this should be of equal interest to Australia - an excellent description of the T26 propulsion system: Powering the stealthy submarine hunter – Type 26 frigate propulsion system in focus | Save the Royal Navy

Apparently, you will be happy to note, Australia is getting 12 ships now, and not the 9 everyone was expecting (see under the heading "Happy motoring", about half way into the article). Would be great if it was true, but obviously an editorial error. Or, maybe that includes 3 for the RNZN!

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I would say that it's either a typo or wishful thinking by the pommy author. AFAIK the CoA hasn't announced an increase of the initial order, and the RNZN was just starting the project to replace the ANZAC frigates about 6 months ago, but since the DCP2019 put their replacement on the back burner by about 6 - 8 years, I would think that the RNZN project team may have been stood down.

ngatimozart said:

I would say that it's either a typo or wishful thinking by the pommy author. AFAIK the CoA hasn't announced an increase of the initial order

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Its wildly expect that the AWD replacement will follow on from the hunter class and be based off an evolved Type 26 hull. While physical contracts and exact specifications don't exist in public, its widely circulated by ASC/BAE and by the government that they will be built. With ASC being handed back at 2042 (in theory, in reality there would likely be a new class after some sort of selection which may or may not be BAE but will be designed and built by ASC most likely under BAE control, most likely type 26 based. However it may not have the exact same propulsion, as a 30+kt on a bigger hull(?), it isn't assured that all hunters will have the same propulsion either).

Volkodav said:

With the selection of the Arrowhead 140 for the RNs Type 31e requirement, I wonder whether such a ship would be much more expensive to procure and operate than a high end corvette?

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I think it will be key to looking at crewing differences. It wouldn't be a big stretch to jump from a high end corvette to an arrowhead 140, the boost in capabilities would be significant. Same with newer capabilities. It would be really nice to know how the RAN planning is for its crewing.

That is at least 7 federal election away - the same distance in time as the pre 9/11, “peace dividend” world. Before the 2000 WP and the intent to build LHDs and AWDs. In an economic sense, it takes us back to before the GST. How much is going to change in the next 20 years? What will be the best ship to build then? There is absolutely no certainty that more than the planned 9 Hunter will be built, or that the next class will be based on them. It might be wish fulfilment for ASC and/or BAE, but that’s about it at this stage, with not one T26 or derivative yet in the water, let alone with any service experience.

True. But I would assume something will be built post 2038 to replace the AWD (one of which isn't even in service yet).

Personally I don't see the Type 26 powertrain lasting past the first 3 hunters unchanged. I would assume some sort of IEP evolution will happen at some point. I assume hull 9 is going to look very different to hull 1.

By 2040 China's population will have decrease to 800 million so highly likely they would have experienced 10 years of decreasing GDP. The working population will have had a significant shrink by that stage. India's population will be around 1.6 1.7 billion, so around twice that of China's. Its highly likely by 2040, trade between Australia and China will look significantly different, with minimal thermal coal/LNG exports. I can assume the threats will wildly change over the next 20 years.

Given previous history, in 7 elections time we will be up to our near 30th prime minister for that period.

StingrayOZ said:

Does the new 5" come with rubber mats to protect the deck? Do the shells actually ding the metal or just take off the non-slip?

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This should answer your question, see the 5" firing at around the 0.39 second mark:


The old style rope mats are down around the mount, but the shell casings are missing and ending up on the deck.

Cheers,

StingrayOZ said:

Its wildly expect that the AWD replacement will follow on from the hunter class and be based off an evolved Type 26 hull. While physical contracts and exact specifications don't exist in public, its widely circulated by ASC/BAE and by the government that they will be built. With ASC being handed back at 2042 (in theory, in reality there would likely be a new class after some sort of selection which may or may not be BAE but will be designed and built by ASC most likely under BAE control, most likely type 26 based. However it may not have the exact same propulsion, as a 30+kt on a bigger hull(?), it isn't assured that all hunters will have the same propulsion either).

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Yes, but the AWD replacement is years down the track, so any talk about replacements is pure airy fairy stuff. A lot of water will pass beneath keels between now and then, and a lot will change. It's like me saying that the current NZ govt is going to acquire F-35Bs for the RNZAF and fly them off a RNZN LHD. Lol.

ngatimozart said:

Yes, but the AWD replacement is years down the track, so any talk about replacements is pure airy fairy stuff. A lot of water will pass beneath keels between now and then, and a lot will change. It's like me saying that the current NZ govt is going to acquire F-35Bs for the RNZAF and fly them off a RNZN LHD. Lol.

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Mate, I disagree with your analogy/comparison of the future DDG replacement and NZ acquiring LHD/F-35Bs.

Yes certainly there will be a lot of water pass under keels between now and when the DDGs are due to be replaced, but there is the matter of the Government's continuous Naval Shipbuilding Plan to consider.

Assuming (and yes assuming makes an ass out of oneself), but assuming that future Governments (of either the Left or Right), don't screw with the NSP, then that is a pretty good reason to assume that 'something' will be built following the completion of the Hunter class.

Putting to aside that the end product of the NSP is in fact ships for the RAN, politically its mostly about jobs, especially in electorates that could make the difference between being re-elected or ending up on the Opposition benches.

It will be a brave (or stupid?) future Government than dumps the NSP.

Cheers,

John Newman said:

Mate, I disagree with your analogy/comparison of the future DDG replacement and NZ acquiring LHD/F-35Bs.

Yes certainly there will be a lot of water pass under keels between now and when the DDGs are due to be replaced, but there is the matter of the Government's continuous Naval Shipbuilding Plan to consider.

Assuming (and yes assuming makes an ass out of oneself), but assuming that future Governments (of either the Left or Right), don't screw with the NSP, then that is a pretty good reason to assume that 'something' will be built following the completion of the Hunter class.

Putting to aside that the end product of the NSP is in fact ships for the RAN, politically its mostly about jobs, especially in electorates that could make the difference between being re-elected or ending up on the Opposition benches.

It will be a brave (or stupid?) future Government than dumps the NSP.

Cheers,

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Cobber, probably wrong analogy, but was aimed specifically at the T26 hull claims for AWD replacement. Yes, definitely AWD replacements will be built after the Hunter Class builds are completed, but anyone claiming that the T26 is going to be the odds on favourite for the AWD replacement is way off base at the moment, because the RAN won't even be considering it at the moment.

Volkodav said:

With the selection of 40mm for the OPVs I noticed that the Leonardo Oto Marlin 40 mm specified is small and light enough to potentially replace the 25mm Typhoon on a number of other RAN platforms. There are already programable fused 40mm rounds and I suspect a course corrected / guided option would not be far away, this system could be a game changer in self defence capability for RAN minor and auxiliary platforms.

Add in BAEs Adaptable Deck Launcher Adaptable Deck Launcher (ADL) | BAE Systems | United Statesand ESSMs compatibility with the Armys new LAND 19 Phase 7B Ground Based Air and Missile Defence project and integrated Australian CEA AESA sensor technology into the baseline NASAMS and there is serious potential to affordably increase the self defence capability of virtually every RAN surface platform (LHDs have it easy they could just tie down a 16 AD troop to the flight deck)

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A lot of talk about the new OPV's intended role.
I'd suggest they may well be called upon to do a lot more over the next thirty years of their service than our currently stated expectations of the Arafura Class.
While we will never turn them into a battle ship, it may be prudent to explore their military potential sooner rather than later.
Crawl, walk, run and all that!

Regards S

StingrayOZ said:

True. But I would assume something will be built post 2038 to replace the AWD (one of which isn't even in service yet).

Personally I don't see the Type 26 powertrain lasting past the first 3 hunters unchanged. I would assume some sort of IEP evolution will happen at some point. I assume hull 9 is going to look very different to hull 1.

By 2040 China's population will have decrease to 800 million so highly likely they would have experienced 10 years of decreasing GDP. The working population will have had a significant shrink by that stage. India's population will be around 1.6 1.7 billion, so around twice that of China's. Its highly likely by 2040, trade between Australia and China will look significantly different, with minimal thermal coal/LNG exports. I can assume the threats will wildly change over the next 20 years.

Given previous history, in 7 elections time we will be up to our near 30th prime minister for that period.

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"By 2040 China's population will have decrease to 800 million"
Really? A decrease of 43% in 21 years? That's an annual rate of decrease of 2.6%. Last year there were 15.2 million births & 9.9 million deaths. A 2.7% decrease would be a fall in population of 38.3 million next year, in a population that grew by over 5 million last year. How is that going to happen?

Yes, the number of deaths will increase, as the larger birth cohorts age & start dying off, but that won't fully kick in until after 2040. The number of people old enough to die in the next 20 years isn't big enough. Even in no babies are born in the next 20 years, the population should still be more than 800 million in 2040.

Current projections are that the working age (not total) population of China in 2040 will be around 900 million or a little less, & total population will be roughly the same as now.

China does have a demographic problem but not quite as severe as StingrayOZ suggests. The estimated 300 million smokers and an ageing population will create budget pressures in the future though and there is the male/female ratio problem as a result of Mao's one child policy. The huge populations in Asia make this region vulnerable to future pandemics so depending on where and how fast a new pandemic can be contained might shift the population distribution. If such shifts were to occur, the geopolitical consequences will be significant.

China does face a demographic problem that will certainly hit home around the 2030s to the 2040s. I am not sure how this will affect the rest of the region. It could have the effect of starving the military of funds as their work base shrinks and the cost of dealing with an ageing population sucks up the rest of their funding. In that case the Chinese military threat might just go away of its own accord.

swerve said:

"By 2040 China's population will have decrease to 800 million"
Really? A decrease of 43% in 21 years? That's an annual rate of decrease of 2.6%. Last year there were 15.2 million births & 9.9 million deaths. A 2.7% decrease would be a fall in population of 38.3 million next year, in a population that grew by over 5 million last year. How is that going to happen?

Yes, the number of deaths will increase, as the larger birth cohorts age & start dying off, but that won't fully kick in until after 2040. The number of people old enough to die in the next 20 years isn't big enough. Even in no babies are born in the next 20 years, the population should still be more than 800 million in 2040.

Current projections are that the working age (not total) population of China in 2040 will be around 900 million or a little less, & total population will be roughly the same as now.

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First a misquote, the data I had said 880 million not 800 million. My Bad.

Its a prediction, so it depends on who you talk to and how you calculate it. But there is a huge coming issue.
Given its an Australian centric thread, this is the sort of out look Australia sees happening in China.



China's Demographic Outlook | Bulletin – June Quarter 2016

The dependency ratio also also a bit of hidden issue too. Are young dependents under 18 as much as burden as older dependents?
So around 2040 many feel China will have its own domestic problems due to this. Currently retirement ages in China is 60 and 55, which it has been since the 50's. Raising it to 70 would mitigate some of this.

The actual population is less of a concern as the dependency ratio. The fact that people won't just die off is going to be part of the problem. If the population stays stable that is likely to be more of a problem than if it shrinks.

So getting back on topic. Building a 1000 ship navy and all the other things, while heading into a massively decreasing budget and GDP situation is likely to have significant complications.