It appears Turkey is heading
towards another conflict with Greece involving the Cypriot question and both nations EEZs.
View attachment 46907
This map shows the EEZs at the moment. Turkey isn't a signatory to UNCLOS unlike Greece and it may not work in Turkey's favour because it means that it cannot appeal to the ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) or ICJ (International Court of Justice) for arbitration. This has been an ongoing issue for years and Turkey is seeking to change the status quo to its favour. Apparently in the Adriatic their control of local Muslim populations has ensured the
permanent stationing of a naval squadron in Bulgaria, so one wonders if Edorgan is following Xi Jinping's play book. Turkey also has the Greek island of Kastellorizo
one mile off its south coast,
View attachment 46908
which the map above shows, and that creates problems for Turkey because Greece is determined to assert full control over its EEZ including all of its islands, which it is doing so in conjunction with the EU. Apparently the EU is also running a concentrated drilling program so that it reduces its dependence upon foreign energy imports. This could be the forerunner of a dedicated EU EEZ. Because there are numerous overlapping EEZ boundaries that Turkey has with Greece, Cyprus, the tensions are ever present because Turkey is aggrieved that it isn't receiving what it believes is an equitable access to the resources of the Eastern Mediterranean out to 200 nm.
View attachment 46909
The map above shows the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially around Cyprus and Turkey already sent two exploration and two drilling ships into Cypriot waters,
defying EU sanctions. It's also been
warning Greek Cypriots not to sign contracts with international companies, which legally the Turks can't do anyway, so it's bullying.
View attachment 46911
However, Turkey has made an agreement with the UN recognised Libyan govt which has not only upset
Greece, but also Cyprus, and Egypt. The map above shows the EEZs boundary and it being a Turkish map
omits a few Greek islands. Turkey also claims that it
has a maritime border with Egypt and does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus, nor does it recognise and Turkish Cypriot EEZ claims.
Turkey may just be picking a fight it can't hope to win. If it gets into strife with Greece over the EEZ and gas fields that escalates to warshots, then the EU will side with Greece and NATO may a well. It has upset the US so it may find itself sanctioned by the US, especially Congress so Trump probably won't be able to help his mate Erdogan out, hence unable to replenish arms and support existing weapons systems. The EU will definitely sanction it, probably severely and it may just find itself evicted from NATO. Erdogan already had the hard word in London and had to swallow a dead rat by withdrawing his holding out on agreement to a NATO East European / Baltic defence plan.
Egypt is also quite annoyed with Turkey over this and the Turks had a big falling out with Israel a while back, or it could've been the other way around. The Egyptians and Israelis do work together on occasion and this could be where they may see a mutual opportunity. Also, the Saudis and some other Gulf nations may take the opportunity to help the Egyptians to spike the Turks guns so to speak. Erdogan is quite stubborn, so we will just have to wait for the next instalment.
