Venezuela Update

ngatimozart

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The Russians have to build a decent size carrier and amph force. During the coming decades, Russia will be exporting far more goods by sea than today. A Russian carrier group and a decent sized amph force off Venezuela would basically stop any attempted American led conflict.
Russia only has one carrier and is not really in the position to build another at the moment. It's carrier would not project enough force in the US back yard to warrant the risk. However if it was part of a very strong CGN focused battle group with strong SSN & SSK support, then such a force would be another story. However, I don't think that Russia has the wherewithal to sustain such a force, far from home waters, over a long period of time.
I believe Russia's main exports are natural resources and its reserves dwarf those of Venezuela. What is it Russia needs to protect in Latin America? Most Russian trade is to the west and south of Russia on the continent. Russia’s Top Trading Partners

Why would Russia attempt to sustain a carrier battle group off Venezuela? I don't see the link between any export growth by sea or land and a naval expedition to an area of dubious relevance....
And @vonnoobie it's not so much trade or resources but geopolitical, very much so. I think that both Russia and China are working together on this because they both have dogs in this fight. China holds the mortgages on the Venezuelan oil fields and Russia has long had a political and strategic interest in both Venezuela and Cuba.
The hypothetical task force would also have an ocean going tug.

Regards S :)
Probably more than one :D
 

Traveller

Member
ngatimozart, correct me if I am wrong, but Russia lost interest in the political lemon of Cuba in the same decade I was born. Detente.... the USSR pulled its missile intentions from Cuba and the USA did the same in Turkey, though western history books concentrate on the former. Apart from selling Venezuela aircraft it cant maintain, what is the current Putinesque interest?
 

ngatimozart

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Since Venezuela is in the news again might as well resurrect this thread for anything related to it.
 

ngatimozart

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ngatimozart, correct me if I am wrong, but Russia lost interest in the political lemon of Cuba in the same decade I was born. Detente.... the USSR pulled its missile intentions from Cuba and the USA did the same in Turkey, though western history books concentrate on the former. Apart from selling Venezuela aircraft it cant maintain, what is the current Putinesque interest?
Nope Russia still supports Cuba diplomatically, especially since Putin has been the tsar of all the Russias. When the USSR fell off it's perch, Russia couldn't and wasn't able to support Cuba economically. However since Tsar Vladimir the Putin came to power, Russian interest in Cuba has increased because of it's location. One does not look a gift horse in the mouth.
 

Traveller

Member
One also is wary of Greeks bearing gifts....Cuba is a political and economic basket case. The proximity to the USA is tempting but can you really perceive Cuba as did Khrushchev? Unless Putin plays a 50 year old card and plays Cuba vs NATO expansion, I don't get it.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
With all the cash China has been throwing around elsewhere, I would think they might be the longer term problem for Western interests in certain parts of South and Central America. They certainly can offer a range of competitive military kit along with consumer goods, the latter which is something the Russians can't match.
 

Traveller

Member
Mate, for now you are right, but China's Belt and Road may not be the great investment it was intended to be. But then if you give Communists a bunch of cash...don't expect capitalism. B&R investments in Africa are not all doing so well. I don't have family in South America so I dont follow news there...but...
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
China would be more interested in South American debt traps than investment successes. A naval base resulting from a debt trap located in South or Central America would be a prize as good as one in the South Pacfic.
 

Traveller

Member
China would be more interested in South American debt traps than investment successes. A naval base resulting from a debt trap located in South or Central America would be a prize as good as one in the South Pacfic.
You get a choccy frog. That is exactly what some African commentators are saying about the Belt and Road investments. The return may not be financial as was expected by the borrowing party, but a debt trap to secure critical infrastructure. (Plenty on this in the Zambian news pages).
 

Feanor

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Nope Russia still supports Cuba diplomatically, especially since Putin has been the tsar of all the Russias. When the USSR fell off it's perch, Russia couldn't and wasn't able to support Cuba economically. However since Tsar Vladimir the Putin came to power, Russian interest in Cuba has increased because of it's location. One does not look a gift horse in the mouth.
But in a fairly limited manner, and not with any large quantities of money. Russia will happily sell Cuba goods, and support Cuba politically, but I doubt they will spend serious money on them.
 

weaponwh

Member
I don't think Russia need large navy, consider all its trading partner are EU and China. but with China and Russia been partners, both share some interest
 

ngatimozart

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It appears that Venezuela has a significant quantity of arms, that it's senior military commanders are corrupt, and that it has been actively funnelling arms to various guerrilla groups and criminal gangs within the region. Now concerns are that if the current govt collapses, said generals will sell off these arms to all and sundry creating significant security concerns for the region and beyond.

Venezuela Is Armed to the Hilt
 

Feanor

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  • #36
It appears that Venezuela has a significant quantity of arms, that it's senior military commanders are corrupt, and that it has been actively funnelling arms to various guerrilla groups and criminal gangs within the region. Now concerns are that if the current govt collapses, said generals will sell off these arms to all and sundry creating significant security concerns for the region and beyond.

Venezuela Is Armed to the Hilt
It's worse then that. They have a giant national militia that has loads of small arms and is loosely organized, consisting of Chavez/Maduro supporters. So even if the opposition manages to take power in the capital, they could be facing a civil war with the poor masses on the side of the chavistas. On top of that they have "armed collective" groups affiliated with the Maduro government but able to act with plausible deniability.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Disenfranchised militias with few prospects, seems we have seen a lot of this before in the ME. Very troubling for this vulnerable region.
 

Feanor

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Disenfranchised militias with few prospects, seems we have seen a lot of this before in the ME. Very troubling for this vulnerable region.
It's a mess, really. Under the reign of Chavez-Maduro, the government has made efforts to improve the lot of the impoverished masses. On the flip side Maduro isn't a particularly capable leader, and between the steep drop in oil prices and western sanctions, he's done a piss-poor job of managing the economy. This has re-invigorated the opposition. But then neither Chavez nor Maduro were/are dictators. There has always been an opposition, and they even get a significant presence in parliament. The chavistas are populists, and retain power on the backs of support from the lower classes, in exchange for which they throw some of the nation's oil wealth in their direction. Chavez had serious problems with military coups during his reign, which led to purges of the military leadership and officer corps, replacing many with people from those lower classes, as well as the establishment of a giant national militia with small arms and basic combat and insurgency training. This meant that even if an army coup succeeded, the army would immediately face massive opposition not only from within its own ranks but also from this parallel structure. Thus today the army remains loyal to Maduro, and he is enjoys enough popular support to mount massive counter-demonstrations against the opposition. If not for consistent US backing, I think the opposition would have folded already. Even as it stands, their chances don't look good, and a government backed by foreign bayonets can't be particularly desirable or particularly stable for Venezuela or their neighbors.

Some photos from the recent events.

Венесуэла.
Коротко по Венесуэле. 30.04.2019

EDIT: To make matters even more interesting, it appears that the US is claiming that tens of thousands of Cubans and hundreds of Russians have taken over the Venezuelan government. While I have no doubt that advisers from both are present (and were present in the past), this claim doesn't look particularly credible, to me at least.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ys-zero/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.57841cb419d7
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
It’s starting to look like 2003 all over again. The real question is whether the US’s press is going along this time. Clearly, Russia and Cuba have Tripp’s there, but tens of thousands? Not likely. If the US press remains silent, we will use force.

Art
 
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