t68
Well-Known Member
Thanks I didn't know that, it seems China may have put pressure regarding the issue.
Debt trap seems their answer for the string of pearls.
Pacific Islands - Polynesia and Melanesia.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
- Start date
Thanks I didn't know that, it seems China may have put pressure regarding the issue.
Debt trap seems their answer for the string of pearls.
There is actually a very simple way Australia can aid the situation and it isn't even with direct hand outs.
The development benefits of expanding Pacific access to Australia’s labour market
Allowing increase in Pacific Island work visas with longer stays can have some dramatic impacts on their economies in a great way. A capped program would actually deliver more benefits to them then our current aid budget for them. The uncapped model delivers even more.
In the grand scheme of things its a simple process (once systems put in place) that will assist there budgets and keep them out of China's sphere of influence keeping our own backyard secured all the while our rural communities are befitting from it. Literally a win win win proposition.
Personally prefer the capped program, Not because dont want Australia filling up because by 2040 under the modeling they would make up all of 900,000 persons in an estimated population of 36 million give or take, drop in the bucket but rather to prevent brain drain in there nations which just leaves them back in the same situation and hating us for prospering off there backs.
The development benefits of expanding Pacific access to Australia’s labour market
Allowing increase in Pacific Island work visas with longer stays can have some dramatic impacts on their economies in a great way. A capped program would actually deliver more benefits to them then our current aid budget for them. The uncapped model delivers even more.
In the grand scheme of things its a simple process (once systems put in place) that will assist there budgets and keep them out of China's sphere of influence keeping our own backyard secured all the while our rural communities are befitting from it. Literally a win win win proposition.
Personally prefer the capped program, Not because dont want Australia filling up because by 2040 under the modeling they would make up all of 900,000 persons in an estimated population of 36 million give or take, drop in the bucket but rather to prevent brain drain in there nations which just leaves them back in the same situation and hating us for prospering off there backs.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #83
Should be a combined AU-NZ policy.
Indonesia beefing up disputed Papua border force in bid for minerals | Asia Pacific Report
Basically the Indonesians have grabbed a chuck of the disputed border between PNG and Irian Jaya province. The discovery of Thorium in the disputed area has been the sole driver for Indonesians to land grab this territory.
Basically the Indonesians have grabbed a chuck of the disputed border between PNG and Irian Jaya province. The discovery of Thorium in the disputed area has been the sole driver for Indonesians to land grab this territory.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #85
Maybe it's time for Australian and NZ to provide a public guarantee of PNG sovereignty.
t68
Well-Known Member
That would take a commitment of permanent troops and martial equipment in the area and bring about konfrontasi 2.0
And more than just a rotation of a rifle company, it would require a significant commitment
Australia already has a defacto public guarantee as described in the 2016 DWP
“The secondStrategic Defence Interest is to support the governments of PNG, Timor L’Este and of the Pacific Island countries to build and strengthen their security.”
Australian governments of both stripes work very hard on the relationship with Indonesia and they regard that as the most important bi lateral relationship across the spectrum of trade, defence, tourism and culture. Although the US is our security guarantor at the moment that position will eventually change. Indonesia has a wealthy middle class that is greater in number than the entire Australian population, a fact oft forgotten in this world of terrorism islamiphobia, they will become an economic powerhouse in a very short few years.
There is also that niggling concern that a potential exists for Indonesia to be captured by fundamentalism and change direction. I believe this is unlikely, the economic development is serving the interests of her people in a much more benign fashion than the possibility of a return to the factions of the 1960s.
The eastern archipelagos of Indonesia are only 200 nms from DARWIN, Not known or ignored by many of our citizens.
Our interests are best served by nurturing Indonesia not confronting her.
Last edited:
Australia can publicly give a guarantee of sovereignty to Papua New Guinea and Indonesia wouldn't mind. Like, if Australia signs a mutual defense treaty with Papua New Guinea, well, the usual rabble-rousers will make noise but the Indonesian government as a whole would go "eh, whatever" and go on with life. A permanent stationing of Australian troops in Papua New Guinea though, with or without a guarantee of sovereignty, is going to be seen as a potential threat. Because rather than being seen as Australia trying to protect PNG, it will be seen as Australia preparing to invade West Papua instead.
Cross-checking the news article, the writer seems to be an alarmist, reading ill-intent everywhere.
Does the Indonesian Army assign soldiers to the PNG-Indonesia border? Yes, every year. It's part of the regular rotation. Malaysian-Indonesia and Timor Leste-Indonesia borders get the same treatment. Indonesia does not have a separate border patrol agency. That task falls under the armed forces' remit instead. Complicating the issue was the discovery of marijuana farms deliberately placed at the border and incidents of marijuana smuggling at the border. West Papuan rebels have also used the border as a safe zone, since the two countries do not have a "hot-pursuit"agreement. So I would not be surprised if there are soldiers patrolling the border and if there are watch posts being erected.
There is a map purporting to show that Indonesia shifted the border 12 km into PNG's side, but there is no mention of it in the article. What are we supposed to take from that? It's ridiculous to anyone who knows how the border was established. North of the Fly River bend, the border is defined as 141 E meridian. There are markers to mark the line, but the markers do not define the line. So north of the Fly River, if there is doubt over where the border is all anyone need to do is check whether the place is west or east of the 141 E meridian. (South of the Fly River the border line is slightly different.) I'm kinda surprised to hear this from a Papua New Guinean person though. Usually it's Indonesia and Malaysia who are accusing each other of moving the border markers, and that's because the Malaysian-Indonesian border isn't defined as a straight line following a certain longitude. I repeat, there is NO disputed territory between PNG and Indonesia because all one needs to determine the border is a good GPS, or in case of the Fly River bend, a good eye to see where the river is.
Next, thorium is the reason? Really? Oh boy, this is like that guy in the Philippines who insists that there is deuterium in Benham Rise and somehow managed to persuade even the Marcoses to put money into mining it because deuterium is fuel for nuclear fusion.
Look, thorium is not actually that rare. The term "rare earth" is a misnomer given because back in the 1800s the chemists had no idea how to separate them and thus only discovered a very small amount of those elements. But with modern chemistry and radiology, we can detect thorium even at concentrations not worth exploiting. And it turns out Indonesia has quite a bit of them. But whether it's worth mining is another thing. The largest proven deposit of thorium in Indonesia is in the monazite sands of Bangka Island in western Indonesia. It's the byproduct of PT Timah's tin mining and refining. PT Timah has over four hundred thousand tonnes of monazite that they don't know what to do with, since they are forbidden to release it due to its radioactivity and they can't process it because there is no thorium market. It just sits there in huge warehouses. The only demand for thorium is for research purposes, and that demand is miniscule. I'm talking global demand here. Yes, in theory thorium can be processed into nuclear fuel, but right now there are ZERO operating nuclear power plant that uses thorium. Now, Indonesia (with international help) is building a very small 10 MW reactor that in theory can use thorium, and they do plan of doing a proof-of-concept experiment with thorium in addition to the usual uranium, but yes, they do have a pilot plant capable of refining several kg of thorium and if it all works out they'll go to a 100 MW demonstration plant (all this is public data, the Indonesia submits updates of their nuclear energy plans to IAEA regularly), but to claim that this causes the Indonesian Army to go to the PNG border to seize the deposits there is ridiculous. There is a small but vocal group of Indonesians pushing for thorium-based nuclear power plants, but if you dig down into the technical documents, you will see that it's a. not going to be soon, b. envisions a dual-fuel reactor that will use uranium at first, and c. going to use the already available Bangka Island deposit. Again, public docs. There is no reason why Indonesia will need to go the the Indonesia-PNG border to get thorium. Thus I have no idea why the writer claims that thorium is the sole reason for this supposed... invasion? Theft of land? Infiltration? No idea.
Lastly, like, seriously, guys. You guys know Indonesia. Does any of you think that Indonesia can mastermind a plan to wrest a chunk of territory in order to build a vast mining operation and somehow keep it a secret? A secret so tight that no one in Indonesia and Australia know about it until a smart and observant Papua New Guinean connected all the dots together?
Cross-checking the news article, the writer seems to be an alarmist, reading ill-intent everywhere.
Does the Indonesian Army assign soldiers to the PNG-Indonesia border? Yes, every year. It's part of the regular rotation. Malaysian-Indonesia and Timor Leste-Indonesia borders get the same treatment. Indonesia does not have a separate border patrol agency. That task falls under the armed forces' remit instead. Complicating the issue was the discovery of marijuana farms deliberately placed at the border and incidents of marijuana smuggling at the border. West Papuan rebels have also used the border as a safe zone, since the two countries do not have a "hot-pursuit"agreement. So I would not be surprised if there are soldiers patrolling the border and if there are watch posts being erected.
There is a map purporting to show that Indonesia shifted the border 12 km into PNG's side, but there is no mention of it in the article. What are we supposed to take from that? It's ridiculous to anyone who knows how the border was established. North of the Fly River bend, the border is defined as 141 E meridian. There are markers to mark the line, but the markers do not define the line. So north of the Fly River, if there is doubt over where the border is all anyone need to do is check whether the place is west or east of the 141 E meridian. (South of the Fly River the border line is slightly different.) I'm kinda surprised to hear this from a Papua New Guinean person though. Usually it's Indonesia and Malaysia who are accusing each other of moving the border markers, and that's because the Malaysian-Indonesian border isn't defined as a straight line following a certain longitude. I repeat, there is NO disputed territory between PNG and Indonesia because all one needs to determine the border is a good GPS, or in case of the Fly River bend, a good eye to see where the river is.
Next, thorium is the reason? Really? Oh boy, this is like that guy in the Philippines who insists that there is deuterium in Benham Rise and somehow managed to persuade even the Marcoses to put money into mining it because deuterium is fuel for nuclear fusion.
Look, thorium is not actually that rare. The term "rare earth" is a misnomer given because back in the 1800s the chemists had no idea how to separate them and thus only discovered a very small amount of those elements. But with modern chemistry and radiology, we can detect thorium even at concentrations not worth exploiting. And it turns out Indonesia has quite a bit of them. But whether it's worth mining is another thing. The largest proven deposit of thorium in Indonesia is in the monazite sands of Bangka Island in western Indonesia. It's the byproduct of PT Timah's tin mining and refining. PT Timah has over four hundred thousand tonnes of monazite that they don't know what to do with, since they are forbidden to release it due to its radioactivity and they can't process it because there is no thorium market. It just sits there in huge warehouses. The only demand for thorium is for research purposes, and that demand is miniscule. I'm talking global demand here. Yes, in theory thorium can be processed into nuclear fuel, but right now there are ZERO operating nuclear power plant that uses thorium. Now, Indonesia (with international help) is building a very small 10 MW reactor that in theory can use thorium, and they do plan of doing a proof-of-concept experiment with thorium in addition to the usual uranium, but yes, they do have a pilot plant capable of refining several kg of thorium and if it all works out they'll go to a 100 MW demonstration plant (all this is public data, the Indonesia submits updates of their nuclear energy plans to IAEA regularly), but to claim that this causes the Indonesian Army to go to the PNG border to seize the deposits there is ridiculous. There is a small but vocal group of Indonesians pushing for thorium-based nuclear power plants, but if you dig down into the technical documents, you will see that it's a. not going to be soon, b. envisions a dual-fuel reactor that will use uranium at first, and c. going to use the already available Bangka Island deposit. Again, public docs. There is no reason why Indonesia will need to go the the Indonesia-PNG border to get thorium. Thus I have no idea why the writer claims that thorium is the sole reason for this supposed... invasion? Theft of land? Infiltration? No idea.
Lastly, like, seriously, guys. You guys know Indonesia. Does any of you think that Indonesia can mastermind a plan to wrest a chunk of territory in order to build a vast mining operation and somehow keep it a secret? A secret so tight that no one in Indonesia and Australia know about it until a smart and observant Papua New Guinean connected all the dots together?
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
Stuff NZ is reporting the Chinese investment in Niue and possibly the Cook Islands as part of the Belt and Road initiative. Part of the offer to the Cook Islands is a deep water port.
Mainland China is reaching into the backyard and offering NZ citizens, in the islands, cash for infrastructure.
Where is Winstons Billion $$$$ to sweeten the pot so China doesnt get to buy a foot hold in the region?
Had to happen sooner or later. Those here on this forum have seen it coming and have been very vocal about the impact Chinese investment can have as a way to set up military facilities in time.
Distances are getting shorter. Maybe as the report states that some in NZ have truly been rattled by these events.
Unlikely to warrant an increase in military expenditure as really what amount of money would be required to pose a realistic threat to the PLAN?
Mainland China is reaching into the backyard and offering NZ citizens, in the islands, cash for infrastructure.
Where is Winstons Billion $$$$ to sweeten the pot so China doesnt get to buy a foot hold in the region?
Had to happen sooner or later. Those here on this forum have seen it coming and have been very vocal about the impact Chinese investment can have as a way to set up military facilities in time.
Distances are getting shorter. Maybe as the report states that some in NZ have truly been rattled by these events.
Unlikely to warrant an increase in military expenditure as really what amount of money would be required to pose a realistic threat to the PLAN?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #90
Don't know, but Winston had a history of being very anti Chinese immigration, until genetics proved that us Maori and the rest of the Polynesians originated from a particular part of Taiwan. That shut him up for a short time. However the current Defence Policy Statement mentions the Chinese by name as destabilising the SCS region and Winston will not be happy with their latest foray into our backyard. This maybe the wake up call that NZ needs regarding defence and security, especially if the Cook Islands follow Niue. Unfortunately further down the track both nations have a high risk of ultimately defaulting on their loans and then the hard side of PRC loans will become evident. Fortunately the Australian govt has forestalled one Chinese strategic play, by agreeing to upgrade the Manus naval base in PNG. Manus is the best sheltered deep water anchorage in the South West Pacific.
Whilst the current Parliament is sitting, Winston has a significant amount of control over the govt and he is no friend of the PRC. However comrade Jacinda is another story, but Winston has managed to outfox her so far. I think that he could be able to convince the current govt that such PRC influence in Niue, the Cook Islands and other Pacific Islands, would constitute a clear and present danger to NZ at many levels. My worry would be the current opposition who when govt bought in quickly to the PRC one belt one road initiative and were a trade at all costs and monetarist govt, spurred on by a MFAT who prioritise trade at all costs above all else. When they return to the Treasury benches I hope that they will have will be aware of the wider ramifications and pitfalls in their trade at all costs policy, especially with regard to the PRC and Russia.
Novascotiaboy
Active Member
So maybe NZ foreign aid money could build the deep water port in the Cooks and an IPV could be rotated through to provide a local presence.
As to Niue the cost to fix roads and other infrastructure has to be less than what the implications of the PRC getting a toe hold in the South Pacific.
As to Niue the cost to fix roads and other infrastructure has to be less than what the implications of the PRC getting a toe hold in the South Pacific.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #92
Yep, but from what I understand NZ Aid money was only spent on feel good things like getting people better etc., and not on basic infrastructure like roads water and energy. Secondly the aid budget is under funded and not seen as a priority along with the rest of the South Pacific and defence and security. Now those chooks are coming home to roost. I cannot see any logical reason why NZ couldn't fund the deep water port in the Cook Islands and rotate an IPV up there. The port funding could come out of the foreign aid budget which needs to be increased vis a vis the South Pacific. Australia could also regularly rotate a PB / OPV through there as well, showing the flag and maybe the USCG a cutter on port visits.
AU & NZ should rotate IPVs / OPVs on a very regular basis through Cook Islands, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, PNG and Solomon Islands ports and EEZs working with those countries all the time, not just now and again or on an ad hoc basis. It should be a permanent full year program that is reassessed say every five years. Expensive yes, but cheaper than trying to leverage unwanted villains out later on in the piece.
All those PI nations you discuss are also recipients of the Pacific Island Patrol Boat programme so extra RAN and RNZN deployments leverage the effectiveness of their sovereign patrol activity.
I can only hope the illegal immigrant boat activity stays low so that RAN resources, particularly the Cairns based OPVs/ACPBs get to deploy to the Pacific regularly.
Are they not already almost beaten to death, being used at an unexpectedly high tempo, in conditions and at ranges well in excess of that planned when they were purchased? Wasn't that part of the justification for larger more capable *steel* OPVs in their place as soon as practicable?
Oldsig
They are too complex for the limited sustainment capabilities of the PI nations.
They are fitted with some military equipment whereas the PIPBS and the replacements Guardian class are all COTS.
t68
Well-Known Member
China's mighty orbit in South Pacific threatens to leave Australia in spin
The power play to try and keep the Pacfic nations within our sphere of influence
The power play to try and keep the Pacfic nations within our sphere of influence
tongan_yam
New Member
No mention in that article of our closet Pacific neighbour Tonga, which has significant debt issues with China resulting from the Capital Nuku'alofa riots in 2006.
Like most 3rd world countries in the Pacific, Tonga does prostitute itself to the highest bidder in aid funding. My take on that has been that this stance is more driven by an economic pragmatism than sound foreign policy.
That would be something that both USA/AUS/NZD would be best to leverage in their talks. Also remembering that these are culturally very strong Pride/Shame cultures that don't react well to being told what to do by the 'whiteman'.
Tonga PM fears asset seizures as Pacific debts to China mount | Reuters
Like most 3rd world countries in the Pacific, Tonga does prostitute itself to the highest bidder in aid funding. My take on that has been that this stance is more driven by an economic pragmatism than sound foreign policy.
That would be something that both USA/AUS/NZD would be best to leverage in their talks. Also remembering that these are culturally very strong Pride/Shame cultures that don't react well to being told what to do by the 'whiteman'.
Tonga PM fears asset seizures as Pacific debts to China mount | Reuters
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #99
Maybe Winston needs to undertake some midnight koha from Shane Jones Regional Development Fund and sort out Tonga's debt to Beijing. Both of them, like me, being Far North Maori will fully understand the concept.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #100
Interesting take on Chinese behaviour at the recent APEC in PNG, with accusations of dummy spitting and bullying by Chinese officials. I noticed all the flags and photos of Xi around the place on the news coverage and it does speak somewhat of Chinese arrogance. I remember an incident earlier in the year at the South Pacific Forum in Nauru, where a Chinese official spat the dummy and threw his toys out of the cot, when he was put in his place by the Forum Chair for speaking out of turn and bullying at the opening of the forum. There is also an ongoing situation in NZ where a leading academic has been targeted by China because of her work on Chinese influence campaigns in foreign countries. Her office and home have been burgled with laptops and phones taken but other valuables left behind. Since then her car has been tampered with. NZ is also a target for Chinese interference and it may be upping the ante. Unfortunately Kiwi pollies, especially the current PM, are to gutless to do anything about it. They have their heads stuck down the proverbial dunny.