I wish Ron Mark well in getting this over the line as it is the right decision. If he gets the P-8A signed off it will be his finest hour.
Royal New Zealand Air Force
- Thread starter Lucasnz
- Start date
If acquired this is what I think a Kiwi P-8 could look like.
The image is from Flight Simulator X using a repainted texture of mine.
A nice piece of artistic licence but I have a trivial question; does the Kiwi on the fuselage roundels look forward on both sides or what's the convention?
yep
Thanks and yes it does look forward on both sides of the fuselage, and on the wings it's head is forward with it looking inwards.
40 deg south
Well-Known Member
No disagreement and I am far from a fan of Mr Mark. However, there are a couple of peculiar points in the Stuff article.
Defence Minister Ron Mark one step closer to replacing old military planes
It's pretty clear to everyone he hasn't started 'from scratch', given the US provided a FMS quote almost two years ago. And there shouldn't be any speculation about whether the previous government took a paper to Cabinet - he merely has to ask his officials who can give him a definitive answer. The article makes it appear he doesn't realise a Cabinet paper is the end point of a huge body of work, not a stand-alone task.
Cabinet committees
For those curious about the distinction between a Cab Committee and Cabinet proper, this DMPC link gives a good explanation. In most cases, if a paper is passed by the appropriate Cab Committee, full Cabinet essentially rubber-stamps it without much debate. Because of the sums involved, this one may get more scrutiny than usual.
(GOV) Cabinet Government Administration and Expenditure Review Committee
Presumably because of the sums involved, this Cab Committee paper went (yesterday, if the media are correct) to GOV rather than ERS, which normally handles defence and diplomacy. The GOV membership (at the link) is huge, including a couple of Greens ministers, and it is chaired by the Min Finance.
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The big question in regard to the P8 buy will be will Winston support it. While NZ 1 has a pro defence policy Winston is not himself pro defence and has in the past derailed defence projects. I would go as far as saying that he shows little interest in defence and does not show any understanding of defence, apart from what political gain that he thinks he can be make. The lack of priority placed on defence in the coalition agreement and the demotion of RM in the NZ1 are not good signs for the future. Time will tell and I hope my fears are groundless.
The other problem in my view is that 4 is simply not enough, 5 would be more realistic and by the time we find this out it will be too late to correct the problem.
The other problem in my view is that 4 is simply not enough, 5 would be more realistic and by the time we find this out it will be too late to correct the problem.
40 deg south
Well-Known Member
I'd be much more concerned about what Grant Roberson thinks of it. He is chair of GOV, Finance Minister and the power (not very far) behind the throne while Winston is acting PM. In fact, he acts as Deputy PM in all but name even when Jacinda is on deck.
Under normal circumstances Ministers rarely announce when things are going to Cab Committee, preferring to hold their tongue until the paper is ready for full Cabinet (and a quick stamp of approval). That way if the Cab Committee turns them down or makes them rework the paper, the public is none the wiser.
If the Committee rejects the paper, Ron is going to look like a prize pillock who can't even convince his own colleagues of a course of action, let along win over the country. Normally a Minister wouldn't make public statements about an upcoming paper unless he was very very sure of support. On the other hand, we are talking about NZ First here, so idiocy is not out of the question. Given that National can be relied on to support the purchase, my guess is that it will go through over the 'principled objections' of the Greens.
Agree that four airframes isn't enough, but considerably better than none!
King Air 350i NZ2353 has undertaken a trip to Cairns, QLD, from Ohakea via Dunedin, Hobart and Tamworth. Cairns was where it had extensive maintenance at Hawker Pacific, prior to delivery to Ohakea, so it could be headed back there for modification to the ACO training role.
Interesting flight plan. Dunedin to Hobart is just a 1100 mile hop which reduces over water time to a minimun.
I remember back in the 1990's that Winston sank the third frigate deal which had been publicized as almost a done deal. From memory I think it was in return for supporting other legislation, or to put it another way, threatening not to support that legislation unless he got his way. Given that National is not in cabinet their support is irrelevant.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Hobart to Tamworth 1861Ks, Tamworth to Cairns 2026Ks, as close to halfway as you are going to get.
Those figures are by road but it gives you a pretty general idea. The closest ADF Air Base to Tamworth is Willy Town over 350ks away and in a much busier area. All they needed was to refuel and probably o'nite accomodation.Tamworth can easily provide that(except for late Jan, unless you love Country Music stay away)
40 deg south
Well-Known Member
You are correct about the third frigate - Winston threatened to pull support from National if they ordered the third ANZAC frigate, which would have brought down the government.
While National aren't in Cabinet and the purchase decision doesn't need a vote in the House, this is still a factor the Government will consider. If National wanted to stop the P-8 purchase, it could direct a lot of Parliamentary Questions challenging the process and the decision, and attempt to use it's public platform to undermine public confidence in the decision. Given a fair slice of the NZ population is opposed to military spending of any kind, Labour would be concerned about bleeding support to the Greens, who can be guaranteed to oppose the purchase. Not a huge factor, but one the government strategists will definitely consider.
40 deg south
Well-Known Member
Boeing’s MPA agenda advances in Asia-Pacific
South Korea to procure MPA through Foreign Military Sales route | Jane's 360
Boeing gets one step closer to landing two more Poseidon customers
It appears Korea has beaten NZ to the P-8 party!
The reports above differ on the number of airframes (4 vs. 6) but agree on a budget of US$1.7 billion. That compares to the NZ FMS quote of US$1.46 billion for four airframes. I always had the impression that the RNZAF was surprised by how high this price was, and thought it could somehow be lowered through negotiation.
If Minister Mark has any sense, he will publicise this widely as vindicating his preference, given Korea has also evaluated the alternative choices. In reality, this means he is unlikely to ever mention it in public.
South Korea to procure MPA through Foreign Military Sales route | Jane's 360
Boeing gets one step closer to landing two more Poseidon customers
It appears Korea has beaten NZ to the P-8 party!
The reports above differ on the number of airframes (4 vs. 6) but agree on a budget of US$1.7 billion. That compares to the NZ FMS quote of US$1.46 billion for four airframes. I always had the impression that the RNZAF was surprised by how high this price was, and thought it could somehow be lowered through negotiation.
If Minister Mark has any sense, he will publicise this widely as vindicating his preference, given Korea has also evaluated the alternative choices. In reality, this means he is unlikely to ever mention it in public.
I suspect the price difference has a lot to do with the level and detail of support package listed.
Of course the sticker shock in NZ can be played down in a public messaging sense if the "invoiced" gross weapon system price of the four aircraft were was focused on as opposed to the all up "ownership" package involving other contracts.
Next cab off the rank is the C-130H replacement.
Germany has recently ordered a three C-130J-30 and three KC-130 mix for $1.4B. The contract is fairly comprehensive and ticks a number of capability boxes for Germany and would be very useful in a NZ context.
Germany – C-130J and KC-130J Aircraft | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency
All six will have MX-20HD Electro-Optical/Infrared Imaging Systems as per the P-8A, LINK 16 and AN/ALR-56M RWR.
Germany has recently ordered a three C-130J-30 and three KC-130 mix for $1.4B. The contract is fairly comprehensive and ticks a number of capability boxes for Germany and would be very useful in a NZ context.
Germany – C-130J and KC-130J Aircraft | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency
All six will have MX-20HD Electro-Optical/Infrared Imaging Systems as per the P-8A, LINK 16 and AN/ALR-56M RWR.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
It doesn't do much for Airbus's hopes of selling the A400 to NZ either if yet another original A400 customer has to buy C-130s to prop up their Airlift as well.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Yep, actions speak loader than words. Not unreasonable to assume some customers still awaiting deliveries must have some concerns about the program.
Defence Force Basic Flying Training has been done out of Tamworth by BAE for some years - moves to Victoria next year if my memory is correct. Probably not as yokelish place as you seem to imagine
oldsig