War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
- Start date
supercomrade
Member
Great updates Feanor. It's still early but everything I been seeing suggests that the majority of the targets were SAA
Here is something that someone sent me:
Update #Syria/n Pantsir-S1 was destroyed in Al Mazzeh AB The system was moving to reload while it was hit (the system launched all of its missiles and had to reload) One of the operators unfortunately martyred The #Israel/i missile hit the operating cabin directly.
This is one that truly puzzles me. Isn't Russia trying to win influence points over Iran? Putin pretty much gave the green light for this.
I mean, if I was Assad, I probably would have said f*** Putin at least 100 times in my head since this has happened. I can't understand their reasoning for doing this. To USA, the Russians tried to say that they will retaliate if it strikes Syria. To Israel they just give a green light, and actually allow them to do far more damage(from the early reports) than both of the US/NATO Tamahawk strikes.I get that the context is different, and the Tamahawk strikes were for "chemical weapons attacks" but still, it's puzzling.
Again, doesn't this move only push Assad even closer to Iran...the thing Russia does not want?
Outside of getting to sell Syria more Pantsir-S1 systems, Russia lost major points for allowing this IMO.
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the concerned
Active Member
You have to wonder is Iran actually in Syria to provide support for Assad or is it there to provide support for Hezbollah.
A lot of the targets appear to have been air defense sites, suggesting that Syrian air defense hasn't been as inept as one would think.
I can't say I agree with this interpretation. I think that first off Assad has to serve two masters, Russia and Iran. Despite their involvement often being overlooked, Iran did a lot to save the Assad regime, including putting considerable boots on the ground for frontline fighting, something Russia has tried to avoid. Second off Assad is allowing Iran to set up considerable infrastructure in Syria, and isn't doing anything to stop or protect from Israeli strikes. Russia on the other hand it not making him a target, and yet has put in time and effort upgrading his air defenses, as well as being the source of his most successful high-end Pantsyr systems. Assad has some thinking to do about who is more likely to save his ass and keep him in power, and who is likely to simply make him a target.
EDIT: Footage of the destruction of a Pantsyr-1S system.
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The New York Times writes:
"Five senior Islamic State officials have been captured, including a top aide to the group’s leader, in a complex cross-border sting carried out by Iraqi and American intelligence, two Iraqi officials said Wednesday.
The three-month operation, which tracked a group of senior Islamic State leaders who had been hiding in Syria and Turkey, represents a significant intelligence victory for the American-led coalition fighting the extremist group and underscores the strengthening relationship between Washington and Baghdad.
Two Iraqi intelligence officials said those captured included four Iraqis and one Syrian whose responsibilities included governing the Islamic State’s territory around Deir al-Zour, Syria, directing internal security and running the administrative body that oversees religious rulings.
Iraq’s external intelligence agency published a statement confirming the arrests, but did not mention any details of the role played by the Americans or the Turks. The two Iraqi intelligence officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details that had not been made public."
One of the men was a close aid to the Islamic State's still unaccounted for kingpin Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi:
"Mr. Ithawi, described by the Iraqis as a top aide to the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi, had been in charge of fatwas, or religious rulings, in the Islamic State’s so-called caliphate. He was also in charge of the education curriculum, and was a member of the body that appointed security and administrative leaders for the Islamic State’s territory, which had included large parts of Iraq and Syria.
He had been living in Turkey with his Syrian wife under his brother’s identity, one of these officials said."
The answer is obvious. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy. Iran is there because Syria has been its only Arab ally for decades [including the 1980's when the Gulf Arabs and the West supported Saddam] and if Syria falls; Iran will not only lose an ally but would be weakened and isolated. Another factor is that IS and groups like it are Iran's natural enemies. Just like how the U.S. waged the ''War On Terror'' [how I detest the term] to prevent terrorists from reaching U.S. shores; Iran seeks to defeat IS and groups like it before they get closer to home. It is often forgotten that Iran too faces terrorism issues at home.
The question should be : is Hezbollah there because of Iranian urging/pressure? Sure Hezbollah is a natural Syrian ally but its main focus is preparing for war with Israel. Sustaining troops/fighters in Syria severely weakens it at home. Hezbollah was also committed in Iraq.
'In the Middle East right now, all sides in this complex battle are staring at each other with increasing concern'
''So are the Israelis. Their earlier attack on Iranian forces in Syria – of which there appear to be far fewer than the West imagines, although there are many pro-Iranian Hezbollah fighters still in the country – came suspiciously close to the Trump announcement reneging on the US nuclear agreement with Iran. And an Israeli statement that the Iranians had missiles in Syria was surely made in concert with the Trump administration – it came within hours, and coincidences don’t run that close in the Middle East.''
''The latest overnight Israeli air strikes, supposedly at Iranian forces in Syria after a supposed Iranian rocket attack on Israeli forces in Golan – and it’s important to use the “supposed” and not take all this at face value – must have been known to the Americans in advance. The Russians, too. And it’s clear that any Israeli plans to create a “security zone” (ie occupation zone) inside Syria and along the border of Golan – along the lines of the “security zone”, equally occupied and patrolled by local militias, in southern Lebanon until the year 2000 – would meet with American approval.''
Israel has no real desire to go to war against Iran, but Trump might lead the US into battle
''The bellicose threats against Iran coming from Israel and Saudi Arabia may be leading to a misunderstanding. Leaders in both countries may be eager for the US to have a military confrontation with Iran, but they would prefer to cheer on Mr Trump from the sidelines rather than become involved in a war themselves.''
''No doubt the revived sanctions will be devastating for the Iranian economy, but Iran has survived a more onerous economic siege in the past while, this time round, ordinary Iranians will be more likely to blame the intransigence of the US rather than that of their own leaders.''
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gazzzwp
Member
Breaking News. Explosions at Hama air base. Not clear at this stage whether it was another Israeli strike or an accident. Planes reported damaged and weapons depots blown up. Four successive explosions which could have been a chain reaction.
ILTV.TV - Daily Newscast from Israel
More detail here:
11 said killed, dozens hurt in blasts at Syria’s Hama air base, cause unclear
ILTV.TV - Daily Newscast from Israel
More detail here:
11 said killed, dozens hurt in blasts at Syria’s Hama air base, cause unclear
gazzzwp
Member
Israel officially admits for the first time F-35's have carried out successful strikes.
Israel says it is the first country to use U.S.-made F-35 in combat
Israel says it is the first country to use U.S.-made F-35 in combat
Update.
Yarmuk has fallen to SAA forces with the last ISIS fighters getting evacuated to the desert east of Deyr-ez-Zor where small bands of ISIS fighters continue to roam.
Ярмук освобожден
Another UAV raid on Khmeimeem has been fought off by Russian air defense, with Russian sources indicating there was only 1 UAV. With the recent upgrades to the base in the form of Tor-M2 systems, these kinds attacks are less likely to succeed then before.
БПЛА пытались атаковать авиабазу Хмеймим
Возле российской авиабазы Хмеймим в Сирии сбили неизвестный беспилотник
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2046546.html
There is a report of a Kornet ATGM striking a target at over 7kms away in Syria, marking the first combat use of the new Kornet-D variant.
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/827931.html
Iranian C-130s airdrop supplies to SAA enclaves in Idlib.
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/732200.html
Shayrat airbase satellite photos with 2 MiG-21bis and 6 L-39 jets.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2068839.html
Satellite imagery of T4 airbase show 4 Su-25s, and 9 attack helos, including 3 Ka-52s. Likely the 4th Ka-52 is the one that was shot down.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4199383.html
The US is cutting funding to Syrian rebels in Idlib.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4199432.html
Explosions at a SAA base in Hama, possibly an Israeli airstrike. A surviving Ka-28 observes the damage.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4200389.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2069059.html
The OPCW investigation has concluded that chlorine was likely used in Saraqib, Idlib province, a conclusion that Russia calls unwarranted. The second link is an informative bellingcat article regarding this investigation and its implications.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2057320.html
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...lorine-attack-tells-us-douma-chemical-attack/
There are reports of Russian MPs beating SAA officers caught looting, as well as urging locals to report incidents of misconduct by the SAA directly to Russian MPs.
http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/34238/Regime_Soldiers_Beaten_Russia_Military_Police_Over_Looting
An interesting article on how US supplied weapons and equipment ended up in the hands of extremists. While I'm loathe to link to fox news, some of the details in the article are worth reading.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/0...a-chaotic-us-effort-to-arm-syrian-rebels.html
There is a report of group of Norwegian right wingers fighting on the side of the Assad regime, possibly sponsored by Russia.
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3198514.html
Muqtada al-Sadr won the elections in Iraq. For those of us who have forgotten, he is a radical cleric whose private army fought against the US at times.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/19/middleeast/iraq-elections-parliament-intl/index.html
US pickup trucks used by the Assad regime.
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/05/blog-post_67.html
Yarmuk has fallen to SAA forces with the last ISIS fighters getting evacuated to the desert east of Deyr-ez-Zor where small bands of ISIS fighters continue to roam.
Ярмук освобожден
Another UAV raid on Khmeimeem has been fought off by Russian air defense, with Russian sources indicating there was only 1 UAV. With the recent upgrades to the base in the form of Tor-M2 systems, these kinds attacks are less likely to succeed then before.
БПЛА пытались атаковать авиабазу Хмеймим
Возле российской авиабазы Хмеймим в Сирии сбили неизвестный беспилотник
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2046546.html
There is a report of a Kornet ATGM striking a target at over 7kms away in Syria, marking the first combat use of the new Kornet-D variant.
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/827931.html
Iranian C-130s airdrop supplies to SAA enclaves in Idlib.
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/732200.html
Shayrat airbase satellite photos with 2 MiG-21bis and 6 L-39 jets.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2068839.html
Satellite imagery of T4 airbase show 4 Su-25s, and 9 attack helos, including 3 Ka-52s. Likely the 4th Ka-52 is the one that was shot down.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4199383.html
The US is cutting funding to Syrian rebels in Idlib.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4199432.html
Explosions at a SAA base in Hama, possibly an Israeli airstrike. A surviving Ka-28 observes the damage.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4200389.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2069059.html
The OPCW investigation has concluded that chlorine was likely used in Saraqib, Idlib province, a conclusion that Russia calls unwarranted. The second link is an informative bellingcat article regarding this investigation and its implications.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/2057320.html
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...lorine-attack-tells-us-douma-chemical-attack/
There are reports of Russian MPs beating SAA officers caught looting, as well as urging locals to report incidents of misconduct by the SAA directly to Russian MPs.
http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/34238/Regime_Soldiers_Beaten_Russia_Military_Police_Over_Looting
An interesting article on how US supplied weapons and equipment ended up in the hands of extremists. While I'm loathe to link to fox news, some of the details in the article are worth reading.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/0...a-chaotic-us-effort-to-arm-syrian-rebels.html
There is a report of group of Norwegian right wingers fighting on the side of the Assad regime, possibly sponsored by Russia.
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3198514.html
Muqtada al-Sadr won the elections in Iraq. For those of us who have forgotten, he is a radical cleric whose private army fought against the US at times.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/19/middleeast/iraq-elections-parliament-intl/index.html
US pickup trucks used by the Assad regime.
http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2018/05/blog-post_67.html
spikehades
Member
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,410
It looks like Deraa will fall soon enough, and the SAA will at Israel and Jordan's border. It will actually be a net territorial gain for Assad as he will occupy some off the buffer zone abandoned by the U.N.
As the war is moving towards its end game, it sill be interesting to see how Assad deals with Idlib And the Turkish issue...
As the war is moving towards its end game, it sill be interesting to see how Assad deals with Idlib And the Turkish issue...
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
It appears that the US, Canada, UK, and Israel are working towards evacuating some members of the White Helmets and their families from portions of southern Syria. As part of this, it appears the plan is to resettle the evacuees in Europe and/or Canada.
US, allies set to evacuate Syrian aid workers from southwest
Israel Is Evacuating Hundreds of White Helmets Rescue Workers From Syria
These stories do seem to seriously counter some of the previous suggestions by pro-Assad/Russian sources that the White Helmets are terrorists and/or affiliated with daesh, since elements that are being evacuated have been trapped between pro-Assad and pro-Islamic State forces, and the border with Israel.
US, allies set to evacuate Syrian aid workers from southwest
Israel Is Evacuating Hundreds of White Helmets Rescue Workers From Syria
These stories do seem to seriously counter some of the previous suggestions by pro-Assad/Russian sources that the White Helmets are terrorists and/or affiliated with daesh, since elements that are being evacuated have been trapped between pro-Assad and pro-Islamic State forces, and the border with Israel.
I'm not sure they make the picture any clearer. Assad has been willing to re-integrate former rebel fighters, granting fairly wide amnesty to non-ISIS fighters who didn't personally participate in atrocities. The White Helmets, even more so, should have been able to stay, and this sort of effort to evacuate them strongly suggests that they have significantly greater ties to the west then merely a popularized civil defense force in rebel-held areas. It also raises some questions. Are these all of them? What happened to the White Helmets elsewhere in Syria? Did they all flee from advancing government forces? If not, were any of the other ones evacuated?
Adding to the messy picture is the fact that Israel evacuated 4 rebel commanders, who allegedly blew up one of their own munition stockpiles prior to leaving. The claim is that these "Syrian rebels" had been agents of Israeli intelligence.
Вывоз агентуры в Израиль
More hostile then he has been to actual rebel fighters? I find this hard to swallow. White Helmet leadership - maybe. But rank and file rescue workers from the local communities? (assuming this is what the bulk of the White Helmets consist if) I rather doubt it. Some elements of the rebel forces are actually being re-integrated into the Syrian government as armed militia. In other words some of the rebel groups aren't even truly disarming. Compared to this level of tolerance (likely prompted by Russia in light of their experience in Chechnya), I can't help but wonder about what's happening with the White Helmets. It looks strange, and the information we have is awfully fragmented.
I agree with swerve, Assad has deliberately targeted them and the hospitals that they operated. Such actions are against the rules of war and can be classified as crimes against humanity.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
If one looks at the propaganda campaign that seems to have been getting waged against the White Helmets, attempting to have people associate White Helmets/their membership with that of the Islamic State, and/or attempting to get people to believe that the White Helmets are assets of foreign military or intelligence agencies (but not Russian or Iranian military/intelligence) then the animosity is clearly visible.
Consider the insinuations (including within this very thread) made when Syrian cinematographer Khaled Khateeb was denied entry to the US to attend the 2017 Academy Awards where his short documentary film The White Helmets won an Oscar. Or consider a very common fallacious argument which pro-Assad allies tend to make against the White Helmets, which is that because they operate in areas outside of Assad governmental control and within areas controlled by what the Assad gov't considers rebels/terrorists, the White Helmets themselves are rebels/terrorists.
As for why members of a non-military rescue organization might consider an autocratic gov't a threat to themselves and their families, one of the things the White Helmets would be in a position to do would be to provide first person accounts of deliberate targeting of civilians, civilian population centres, and infrastructure like hospitals, the targeting of which is normally considered either a war crime or a crime against humanity.
One possible reason is that they exemplify civil society independent of the regime. When protests against the Assads & their government began, the first opposition groups they moved against weren't Sunni extremists or violent rebels, but democratic groups, whether secular or moderately religious.
The strategy was to force dissidents to choose between the relative tolerance of the Assads & extremists such as IS, by destroying anything in between. It worked. The democratic opposition within the areas which stayed under Assad control shut up & knuckled down, because by smashing any democratic movements which openly opposed him & leaving extremists to establish themselves, Bashar had left their supporters with alternatives to him which were all worse.
That is why the White Helmets could only work in opposition controlled areas (& not all of them: IS & some others didn't tolerate them, for the same reasons as Bashar). To Bashar Assad, peaceful citizens groups working outside state control are a bigger long-term threat than armed rebels. They represent an idea which is antithetical to authoritarian government. Non-government armed groups trying to impose their ideas by force are rivals: the White Helmets are enemies. Rivals can be turned, incorporated into the system & given rein to exercise power, within limits. Civil society groups don't fit into that structure.
I expect that Bashar was taken by surprise by how successful some of the extremists were, but I don't recall him changing the strategy.
Perhaps, these are good arguments. Maybe Assad has it out for the White Helmets to the point where no reintegration into Syrian society is possible for them (though I still have my doubts). None the less it doesn't answer the rest of the questions. Are these all of the White Helmets? The entire organization? Somehow I doubt that, just geographically White Helmets from besieged Aleppo aren't likely to have made it all the way to the Golan Heights. So what has happened to the rest of them? Was any effort made to evacuate the rest? Are there any reports that anyone is coming after them? What makes this group of White Helmets special enough to earn a coordinated rescue effort, while the rest were seemingly abandoned?
Between shitty intelligence, inaccurate dumb bombs, pilot error, and a rebel force that doesn't wear uniforms and often blends in with the civilian populace, it would be a hard case to make. Add to that, in some cases abandoned medical facilities being used by the rebels as strong points or bases (a certain hospital in Aleppo comes to mind) and it becomes even murkier. Though common sense and a look at some of the information coming out strongly suggests that you're right. I think that much greater crimes against humanity will likely being once the war ends, and Assad is solidly in power. I suspect that many of those who are currently taking the amnesty and laying down their arms will not fare well in the medium term. Personally I wouldn't trust the government's word on that.
EDIT: Completely unrelated to the White Helmets, but an interesting read on the impact the Syrian campaign is having and will likely have on Russian military thought and planning.
https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/rnv_109_adamsky_moscow_syria_campaign_2018.pdf
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Todjaeger
Potstirrer
The targeting of functioning hospitals is not a particularly difficult case to make. Nor is the use of heli-bourne chemical weapons and dispersal systems.