War Against ISIS

STURM

Well-Known Member
Are they eager to demonstrate that they have closed the gap with the US stealth fighters?
To me, the only way to do that if it were to take part in actual ops as part of an integrated network involving other assets.

In this case perhaps it's intended for it to perform CAS or a standoff strike role using PGMs but does the aircraft actually have these capabilities yet?
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
To me, the only way to do that if it were to take part in actual ops as part of an integrated network involving other assets.

In this case perhaps it's intended for it to perform CAS or a standoff strike role using PGMs but does the aircraft actually have these capabilities yet?
Somewhere (sorry I can't remember where) I have read the canon and the ability to drop 'dumb' bombs has been tested and integrated. I suspect this is mainly a marketing exercise, especially wrt India, but it also may be to put it up the Yanks after the recent event. Not an exercise without risk.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Somewhere (sorry I can't remember where) I have read the canon and the ability to drop 'dumb' bombs has been tested and integrated. I suspect this is mainly a marketing exercise, especially wrt India, but it also may be to put it up the Yanks after the recent event. Not an exercise without risk.
That info might be dated. It was spotted testing PGMs, and the recent statement released was that the aircraft is ready for experimental exploitation, this is the equivalent of IOC.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What would be of immense interest is Russia's position on the new base.
I think Russia would be wise to stay out of the Israeli-Iranian quarrel. On the one hand Russia clearly has a certain relationship with Israel that it would be important to preserve. On the other hand a stronger Iran is objectively better for Russia because it distracts the US from dealing with Russia, and helps share the burden of keeping Assad in power.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I think Russia would be wise to stay out of the Israeli-Iranian quarrel. On the one hand Russia clearly has a certain relationship with Israel that it would be important to preserve. On the other hand a stronger Iran is objectively better for Russia because it distracts the US from dealing with Russia, and helps share the burden of keeping Assad in power.
I would agree. Any increase in conflict within the region is going to have greater impact upon Russia than the US, just because of the geography. The geopolitical problems that the US has within the region have been basically self inflicted.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
What would be of immense interest is Russia's position on the new base.
True but it would also be important for confirmation to be provided that Iran actually has missiles in that base. Is there a possibility [if there actually missiles there] that the missiles are Syrian?

There is also the question of whether Russia is encouraging Iran to bolster its presence in Syria. Russia has important ties with Israel but it also has important ties with Iran and on top of everything; Russia's priority is to keep Assad in power and to maintain its presence in the country. I highly doubt that Iran would deploy missiles to Syria without the agreement of the Syrians and the Syrians would not agree to it without first securing Russian approval.

I also find it hard to believe that Iran would actually place missiles there in the knowledge that they would be soon detected soon and would be very vulnerable to Israeli strikes. Of course things would be much more complicated if we found out that there are indeed Iranian missiles there and the area is protected by Russian SAMs.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would agree. Any increase in conflict within the region is going to have greater impact upon Russia than the US, just because of the geography. The geopolitical problems that the US has within the region have been basically self inflicted.
Russia's presence in the region is also far more tenuous, with two medium-sized bases in Syria, and that's about it. It's a good start, and if they can hold on to it then it will serve as a solid foothold for decades to come, but jeopardizing their position there through a spat with Israel would be unwise in the extreme. I would even say that Russia might be glad Israel is striking Iranian targets in Syria, though they certainly wouldn't admit it publicly.

I also find it hard to believe that Iran would actually place missiles there in the knowledge that they would be soon detected soon and would be very vulnerable to Israeli strikes. Of course things would be much more complicated if we found out that there are indeed Iranian missiles there and the area is protected by Russian SAMs.
The opposite has been true so far, with Russia explicitly not interfering with Israeli airstrikes. It would represent a huge shift in the nature of the conflict and I doubt Russia is willing to marry their Middle Eastern policy to something as flimsy as Iranian missile bases in Syria. Also there's the fact that Russia doesn't have that many SAMs in Syria overall. They have a solid grid over Khmeimeem and a decent one over Tartus but little more than that.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Russia's presence in the region is also far more tenuous, with two medium-sized bases in Syria, and that's about it.
I suppose there's also the factor that should the worst happen and Russia and the U.S. engage in open hostilities; Russian forces in Syria will be cut off as the USN will be able to interdict Russian shipping in the Mediterranean.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I suppose there's also the factor that should the worst happen and Russia and the U.S. engage in open hostilities; Russian forces in Syria will be cut off as the USN will be able to interdict Russian shipping in the Mediterranean.
If things were to get to such a point, there would be a real nightmare scenario as that could lead to direct conflict between Russia and the US/NATO.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If things were to get to such a point, there would be a real nightmare scenario as that could lead to direct conflict between Russia and the US/NATO.
It rather depends on how the conflict gets started. Remember, NATO was all too willing to disown Turkey when they shot down a Russian jet over the Syrian-Turkish border. I'm sure there is a set of circumstances here where NATO would not back the US, in a limited conflict in Syria.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
It rather depends on how the conflict gets started. Remember, NATO was all too willing to disown Turkey when they shot down a Russian jet over the Syrian-Turkish border. I'm sure there is a set of circumstances here where NATO would not back the US, in a limited conflict in Syria.
And a direct conflict between Russia and the US (without NATO support) would be any better, because why?

Realistically if the two nations start engaging in ongoing direct conflict in Syria, that conflict will spread as both sides would attempt to neutralize the other's forces in Syria, as well as attempting to interdict/neutralize support and reinforcements prior to them getting into Syria.
 

the concerned

Active Member
With US forces operating in Syria on anti Isis missions. I take it this mission is backed by NATO. So if their forces are attacked by other national groups would that entitle the US to trigger article 5.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The thing is, IS has been largely evicted from Syria; which raises questions as to what the U.S. is aiming to achieve. We know what the Russians want but apart from wanting Assad gone and ensuring Iran doesn't gain more influence there; what does the U.S. hope to achieve? Irrespective of Article 5; it really remains to be seen if the rest of NATO would be so eager or quick to get involved should the U.S. and Russia engage in open hostilities.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
With US forces operating in Syria on anti Isis missions. I take it this mission is backed by NATO. So if their forces are attacked by other national groups would that entitle the US to trigger article 5.
As Feanor has suggested by way of the Turkey example (shooting down a Russian jet), the article 5 trigger probably won't be pulled for certain events. Can't see NATO ever supporting Turkey over that incident and now even less so given recent events there. Syria, IMO, is similar. A possible Russian-American confrontation in Syria is really about Assad. Most Euro members, unlike the US apparently, see Assad as least worst alternative.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Most Euro members, unlike the US apparently, see Assad as least worst alternative.
I'm not so sure. If Assad was behaved and provided certain guarantees; the U.S. might be wiling to let him stay on. Similarly with Israel, if Assad downgraded his ties with Iran, the Israelis might be 'friendlier'.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
With US forces operating in Syria on anti Isis missions. I take it this mission is backed by NATO. So if their forces are attacked by other national groups would that entitle the US to trigger article 5.
The US Forces inside Syria may not be backed by NATO. Their deployment looks like a unilateral decision. Article 5 states:

Article 5

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.


Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

Therefore upon the face of it, any attack on US Forces in Syria by Russian Forces would not trigger Article 5. However Article 6 states:

Article 6

“For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:


  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”
  1. Article 6 has been modified by Article 2 of the Protocol to the North Atlantic Treaty on the Accession of Greece and Turkey.
  2. On January 16, 1963, the North Atlantic Council modified this Treaty in its decision C-R(63)2, point V, on the independence of the Algerian departments of France.
  3. Documents on Canadian External Relations, Vol. 15, Ch. IV.
Source: Collective defence - Article 5
The Economist states that:

Much NATO effort is now going into ensuring that it can respond in a practical way, militarily and politically, to appeals for help. All the strength of the world's mightiest military alliance will not amount to much if its members cannot agree when an aggressor has actually stepped over the line. (My emphasis)​

This appears to mean that if the US invokes Chapter 5 in Syria, then NATO may not respond as the US would like because of possible disagreement amongst member nations about the response. Whilst NATO agreed to combat terrorism, it could be argued by some that once Daesh is defeated in Syria and Assad reestablishes full control over the Syrian nation, the US has no grounds to stay within Syria especially as it wasn't invited in by the Syrian government.

That's my take on it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
And a direct conflict between Russia and the US (without NATO support) would be any better, because why?

Realistically if the two nations start engaging in ongoing direct conflict in Syria, that conflict will spread as both sides would attempt to neutralize the other's forces in Syria, as well as attempting to interdict/neutralize support and reinforcements prior to them getting into Syria.
Better than what? Then a conflict that involves NATO? Well presumably a smaller war is better then a bigger war...

You're correct on the potential for escalation, but how that escalation proceeds and who it involves would depend on the scenario.
 
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