North Korean Military.

On a side note, how would one would a win a war against NK?

What I mean by this is, if a coalition invaded them, at what point do they stop fighting?

I do not see any scenarios where NK waves a white flag like a normal country that is getting beat, and does not want to take anymore losses.

Even if coalition forces kill the leader Kim, would NK give up?

Sorta curious how you get them to surrender as an entire country.
 

colay1

Member
Some promising technologies that could mitigate the BM threat. No doubt technical challenges remain but at this point it would appear that the basic technology is understood and it's just a matter of harnessing the political will to realize them.

BPI to target BMs during ascent when they are most vulnerable. MOKV-tipped GBI and SM-3 to target incoming clusters of warheads and decoys during the mid-course phase and FEL and EMRGs for terminal BMD.

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proc...oost-phase-could-counter-north-korea-part-two

Research performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was conducted to determine the feasibility of deploying a boost phase intercept (BPI) system on board a medium-to-large-sized UAV. The use of the remotely-piloted MQ-9 Reaper, the infrared Multi-Spectral Targeting System C (MTS-C) sensor, and a notional airborne hit-to-kill interceptor for conducting long-range intercepts of ballistic missiles was analyzed. These systems were selected because they had reached an adequate technology readiness level to create a BPI capability in the near- to mid-term. The MQ-9 Reaper has an extensive demonstrated operational capability in multiple theaters. A Missile Defense Agency test had already successfully integrated the MQ-9 and the MTS-C to successfully track a ballistic missile from boost into mid-course.




Pentagon Accelerates Work on Multi-Warhead Interceptor - Defense One


The Missile Defense Agency, or MDA, is accelerating the development of an interceptor that can take down several incoming warheads — or one warhead and several decoys — simultaneously. While MDA officials say the move is not a response to any specific threat, one prominent defense watcher notes that North Korea is likely working hard on missiles that can fire decoys to confuse interceptors...


The developed airborne BPI system engaged the threat missiles in a series of simulations. Two MQ-9 Reapers utilized notional MTS-C sensors to track the ballistic missiles in boost phase, with one aircraft launching the interceptor. Two aircraft were necessary, as the MTS-C is a passive sensor that requires triangulation to generate timely tracks. One aircraft remained stationary and only provided a second sensor for tracking, while the aircraft that launched the interceptor moved across a programmed grid in a series of engagements. Both aircraft maintained station sufficiently far from enemy territory to avoid notional antiair threats. The engagement simulation calculated the required performance of an interceptor launched from each location, considering the key performance metrics of interceptor time of flight and the magnitude of the necessary change in velocity required to home the interceptor to the target. Successful intercepts indicated the interceptor design provided the necessary velocity for the intercept trajectory and arrived at the threat before the threat burned out for a given launch location and threat trajectory.

The analysis demonstrated that the Reaper-based interceptor is capable of intercepting missiles in the boost phase given a feasible area of operations against both ICBMs and IRBMs. The analysis did show the Reaper-based interceptor was ineffective against the MRBM, whose short burn time and low burnout altitude precludes intercept during boost phase with this system.

This analysis shows that readily available technology could be combined to field a UAV-based system capable of a boost-phase kill against threats to both the American U.S. BPI capability.



https://www.wired.com/2011/02/unexpectedly-navys-superlaser-blasts-away-a-record/

The free-electron laser is one of the Navy's highest-priority weapons programs, and it's not hard to see why. "We're fast approaching the limits of our ability to hit maneuvering pieces of metal in the sky with other maneuvering pieces of metal," says Rear Adm. Nevin Carr, the Navy's chief of research. The next level: "fighting at the speed of light and hypersonics" – that is, the free-electron laser and the Navy's Mach-8 electromagnetic rail gun...

Currently, the free-electron laser project produces the most-powerful beam in the world. If it gets up to its ultimate goal, of generating a megawatt's worth of laser power, it'll be able to burn through 20 feet of steel per second. Just add electrons.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
On a side note, how would one would a win a war against NK?

What I mean by this is, if a coalition invaded them, at what point do they stop fighting?

I do not see any scenarios where NK waves a white flag like a normal country that is getting beat, and does not want to take anymore losses.

Even if coalition forces kill the leader Kim, would NK give up?

Sorta curious how you get them to surrender as an entire country.

that would depend on circumstance, historically we know what may come there way as you are invading the north and not pushing them back across the 38 parallel as the intension of 1950 and then MacArthur miss calculating. China has already stated what they intended to do.

https://www.qt.com.au/news/china-will-defend-north-korea/3211438/

Basically a re-run of 1950, but will china stop at the 38 or try at take the whole peninsula?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not one of of his fans but he can't do worse than some of the dip$hit negotiators the US has used in the past (e.g. Richardson).
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
On a side note, how would one would a win a war against NK?

What I mean by this is, if a coalition invaded them, at what point do they stop fighting?

I do not see any scenarios where NK waves a white flag like a normal country that is getting beat, and does not want to take anymore losses.

Even if coalition forces kill the leader Kim, would NK give up?

Sorta curious how you get them to surrender as an entire country.
What would happen if the NK government was decapitated is a huge unknown. Is the NK population so brainwashed they would follow Kim into oblivion, who knows? Realistically and unfortunately, any conflict would likely go nuclear and render this question moot, there won't be anyone left to fight on.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Worst case scenarios would typically mean systems like BMD have minimal impact, if they are even functional.

While having BMD systems (providing they are at least partially effective) is certainly better than not having them, it also comes down to whether they are positioned where needed, and if they can be overwhelmed. If N Korean ICBM's can be limited to single digit numbers, with a single warhead, then BMD systems could be effective.

OTOH if it turns out N Korea has (or can steal/develop) MIRV capabilities, and/or it able to manufacture more ICBM's than the rest of the world expects... a perfectly functioning BMD system might only be able to limit or reduce the damage.
Well it's an interesting question. At 2 interceptors per missile, a system like the A135 should be able to handle ~10-15 ICBMs, with future systems having greater capabilities. Are we thinking the DPRK has dozens of ICBMs ready any time soon? Even China has a relatively small number of ICBMs.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Well it's an interesting question. At 2 interceptors per missile, a system like the A135 should be able to handle ~10-15 ICBMs, with future systems having greater capabilities. Are we thinking the DPRK has dozens of ICBMs ready any time soon? Even China has a relatively small number of ICBMs.
There is also the very real possibility that all eyes are on the skies for inbound missiles when some could be approaching on completely different vectors...
 
Another question is, in a scenario where NK does launch an ICBM, does Russia attempt to shoot it down along with the US?

Or would they sit back and watch?
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
The problem is also that no system is 100 % reliable or perfect. Getting a 5-10% failure rate to intercept missile in a conventional scenario is quite good. But NK firing 10 nuclear tipped SRBM/MRBM/ICBM each at Seoul, Tokyo and LA just one 150kt warhead coming through is a huge blow.

Thus a credible nuclear deterrence is a must have. And we should hope that SK and Japan feel safe under the US umbrella as especially Japan with it's tech level, warehouse full of fission material and space program could advance from no nukes to MIRVs with H-bombs tipped ICBMs in record time.

The Chinese would freak out and the world wouldn't get any safer.
 

the concerned

Active Member
I hope you understand that this is just a idea but one way you coùld potentially defuse this peacefully is for South Korea and the United States to do a deal with China to station a small contingent of soldiers on the North/South border on the South side. I know this sounds crazy but with that if North Korea tried to attack it would have to do so with the knowledge that it is attacking China.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I hope you understand that this is just a idea but one way you coùld potentially defuse this peacefully is for South Korea and the United States to do a deal with China to station a small contingent of soldiers on the North/South border on the South side. I know this sounds crazy but with that if North Korea tried to attack it would have to do so with the knowledge that it is attacking China.
So you think that they should be part of the UN Command Military Armistice Commission (UNCMAC) which monitors the border? Or do you want them as a strictly PLA force separate to the UNCMAC? I think that the former may be more acceptable politically to the South Koreans, US and other nations who make up the force.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... And we should hope that SK and Japan feel safe under the US umbrella as especially Japan with it's tech level, warehouse full of fission material and space program could advance from no nukes to MIRVs with H-bombs tipped ICBMs in record time.

The Chinese would freak out and the world wouldn't get any safer.
Ignoring the big liquid-fuelled rockets . . .
.
SS-520 sounding rocket: 140 kg to 1000 km altitude. How much range does that give? Enough to hit North Korea? That's a fairly small (2.6 ton) rocket. Mobile single warhead missile?

Epsilon satellite launcher: up to 1.2 tons in orbit. Three stage solid rocket. Just the first stage plus a warhead would do, I think.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
How would that address the issue of NK having ICBMs with nukes? That's what triggered this latest frenzy.
Well NK having nukes and ICBMs is fact now so are moot. No point throwing a massive hissy fit or starting a war that will generate horrendous casualties. The tasks now would be to reach a peaceful diplomatic arrangement.
 

colay1

Member
Well NK having nukes and ICBMs is fact now so are moot. No point throwing a massive hissy fit or starting a war that will generate horrendous casualties. The tasks now would be to reach a peaceful diplomatic arrangement.
Hissy fit is right. If only Trump can accept reality. James Clapper says the US should acknowledge the NK capability as a prelude to talks.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
As expected.... Just a little bit more new sanctions... https://nos.nl/artikel/2192537-nieuwe-maar-niet-al-te-strenge-vn-sancties-tegen-noord-korea.html
And after the 7th and 8th nuclear tests...again a couple of new weak sanctions...

Maybe South-Korea will perform a military exercise with not four or five but even six F-15s dropping free fall bombs!!
How will Kim Jong Un react to this? Methinks his ego will require him to make a bold statement in reply. He's wearing out the patience of the PRC and how they enforce the sanctions will be a gauge of their patience. The overlying factor is that sanctions are really the only option short of war, which would be catastrophic, not just for the Korean Peninsula, but China, Russia, Japan and other nations within the region. It will also drag, the US, Australia, New Zealand and any other currently active members of the UNC (UN Command in Korea) into the conflict whether they like it or not. Technically the UNC is still at war with North Korea and any currently active member of the UNC that refuses to honour its obligation will become an international pariah.
 
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