OK, what's your alternative to diplomacy? Specifics would be nice.
North Korean Military.
- Thread starter F-15 Eagle
- Start date
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Some updates....
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
https://nos.nl/artikel/2191307-zuid-korea-ziet-nieuwe-raketactiviteiten-in-noorden.html
After the sixth nuclears test and many missile tests it is still not enough for NK.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
https://nos.nl/artikel/2191307-zuid-korea-ziet-nieuwe-raketactiviteiten-in-noorden.html
After the sixth nuclears test and many missile tests it is still not enough for NK.
The problem of North Korea is hugely overblown. It is also easy to solve.
First, forget about forcing Kim to abandon nukes. Not gona happen.
But look it’s not gona happen with India or Pakistan and few people losing sleep about it. After all the only country humane enough to use nukes was… the beacon of democracy and freedom.
Second, remove all sanctions from NK. Engage it into international trade and cooperation as deeply as we could. This will create effect similar to the one in China. That is new class of well off even wealthy people will arise. Kim will not be able to stop this force of nature. They will demand (softly but strongly) to have a say.
Third, start talking seriously about peace accord with SK, guaranty safety and security to NK, make it feel relaxed and secure. Nothing unite population around dictator as feeling of danger and isolations. Take it from Kim.
That is all what requires, assuming one truly want to solve the problem. I personally starting to suspect that such assumption is unjustified.
First, forget about forcing Kim to abandon nukes. Not gona happen.
But look it’s not gona happen with India or Pakistan and few people losing sleep about it. After all the only country humane enough to use nukes was… the beacon of democracy and freedom.
Second, remove all sanctions from NK. Engage it into international trade and cooperation as deeply as we could. This will create effect similar to the one in China. That is new class of well off even wealthy people will arise. Kim will not be able to stop this force of nature. They will demand (softly but strongly) to have a say.
Third, start talking seriously about peace accord with SK, guaranty safety and security to NK, make it feel relaxed and secure. Nothing unite population around dictator as feeling of danger and isolations. Take it from Kim.
That is all what requires, assuming one truly want to solve the problem. I personally starting to suspect that such assumption is unjustified.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This will never happen because this is not in the Kim family's interest. A new class of people rising..that's a death sentence for these mutts. If Mao had a family tree like the Kim family China would still be a third world country with a food supply problem.
The US have to engineer or overplay a threat to US assets, then escalate the situation one final time, trying to turn this into a US vs N.Korea showdown and leaving the allies and third parties out of the picture. Then a US carrier force will unleash a barrage of missiles and airstrikes, while US forces in South Korea will not take part. Until S.Korean soil is attacked, of course, which I expect will be
immediate.
Meanwhile the US will start negotiations with the Chinese on the installation of a chinese-controlled regime on a basis of total denuclearisation, with only chinese military presence in N.Korea, lift of the sanctions to help the rebuilding process, no border changes and no Korean unification. Ignore the russians on this matter and appease them with regards to Syrian affairs in exchange.
Really? That's your solution, a preemptive strike that could devastate the peninsula and leave countless dead including hundreds of thousands of US citizens in SK and Japan?
I think you've fundamentally misunderstood the nature of the North Korean state system.
It's a very old-fashioned system. There is a divine ruler, someone who is officially regarded as above human beings. The official press tells North Koreans that wild animals & birds acknowledge the rule of the Kims, that the weather recognises major events in their lives by cessation of storms & the like, & that they have other superhuman characteristics, such as being able to excel at anything they choose to. For example, tt was officially stated that the one & only time Kim Jong Il played golf (to inaugurate the first golf course in N. Korea, IIRC) he was officially stated to have made 18 holes in 34 shots, including five holes in one. Achievements in rocketry, nuclear explosives, etc. are due to the Kims telling the scientists & engineers how to solve their technical problems, after a mere glance at the hardware.
It is inconceivable that someone at the head of such a system would agree to give people outside the leadership a say. That would destroy the myth. Fat boy would, & probably rightly, fear that abandoning his status as God-King would swiftly be followed by a humiliating as well as painful death at the hands of the disillusioned populace.
Don't forget that this is a man who does not hesitate to kill his own family if they're insufficiently servile. He had his uncle executed, reportedly by anti-aircraft gun (& is reported to have gleefully watched), & his brother poisoned in Malaysia.
The leadership in China chose to open up. The Kim kingdom has not made that choice. It does not want openness. It wants control above all else. The poverty of the people is of no importance to the Kim dynasty. It's a bit like Orwell's vision in 1984: a small privileged group, an outer semi-privileged group (one of the privileges of which, for example, is living in Pyongyang), & semi-slave proles. All legal foreign trade (almost all with China) is controlled by the state. It could, if it so chose, open up to China & Russia. It refuses to.
gazzzwp
Member
Putin and Xi have hinted at some mutual agreement with regard to how to deal with NK. No specifics appear to have been made public yet.
https://www.rt.com/news/401882-putin-xi-north-korea-deal/
I'm just wondering whether they would go as far as to try and foil any US military action say by installing missile defenses or flying their own aircraft near the borders? That is in an attempt to stop what they may see as reckless US action creating havoc in their respective backyards?
https://www.rt.com/news/401882-putin-xi-north-korea-deal/
I'm just wondering whether they would go as far as to try and foil any US military action say by installing missile defenses or flying their own aircraft near the borders? That is in an attempt to stop what they may see as reckless US action creating havoc in their respective backyards?
I think it is highly likely that they might install further defenses, in 2009 Russia installed a S400 system to protect from NK missile launches.
https://sputniknews.com/military/20090826155930246/
It appears recently the have mobilised more in that area.
Russian missiles spotted moving by North Korea as US edges towards war | World | News | Express.co.uk
It would seem China is doing the same.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-150000-troops-north-korea-xi-trump-2017-4?r=US&IR=T
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...an-border-kim-jong-un-donald-trump-xi-jinping
One of North Korea's launches actually was heading towards Russia.
North Korea fires missile that lands in sea near Russia | Reuters
Neither Russia nor China is going to fly into NK airspace without an open invitation from NK, which is highly unlikely. NK will want both Russia and China at a distance.
Russia and China will be flat out trying to convince NK that they should be focused on the US. Mutual strategy to deal with NK may not mean what those in the west hope it to mean (resolution).
Given that now the Russia and China have less influence on North Korea, their concerns about dealing with NK are valid, but different from the US. They want the regime intact and looking across the pacific. Not intact and looking towards their direction.If the US is unwilling to negotiate on basically anything, then NK will likely mount pressure on Russia and China.
China stopping oil supplies to NK is going to make for one unhappy regime. Russia is in a weaker position to strike at the regime than the US (or China) is.
When diplomacy fails and the stakes are high, it is time for war. USA has been at war non-stop for generations, don't act too surprised. Also, not sure how you expect hundreds of thousands of US citizens in SK and Japan to die. You think China will just launch nukes, even though they get the assurances I mentioned? To protect Fat Boy Kim after he has spit on their face so many times?
No, they want a puppet regime to act as a buffer zone and they will get it after Pyongyang's obliteration. Nice balance of power, clear-cut borders and nuclearisation. And it will set a precedent with regards to smaller countries acquiring nuclear arms to trump US military supremacy. We can't have that, can we?
Of course, the easiest way out is to do nothing and pass the (now bigger) problem on to the next administration.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The above has worked out so well so why not.
Unfortunately, the kick the can to the next administration is the likely outcome. An invasion of the north 16-20 years ago was the solution.
gazzzwp
Member
Saying of the boxer Joe Louis (aka The Brown Bomber):The above has worked out so well so why not.
Unfortunately, the kick the can to the next administration is the likely outcome. An invasion of the north 16-20 years ago was the solution.
"It wouldn't have been too late if it had started earlier".
2007yellow430
Active Member
Those that advocate action that encompass the death of hundreds of thousands of people, when not in self defense, aren't right in the head. I'm sorry for the opinion, and apologize if it impacts any poster.
Art
Art
You are dead right Art and no need to apologise.
I also agree with that.
SK, Japan and others lived under the nuclear NK threat for some years now (and in the case of SK also a considerable conventional threat). But now that the US mainland may be in reach of nuclear tipped ICBMs a war should follow according to some posters here.
Such a war would devastate the Korean peninsular and kill tens if not hundreds of thousands. Add to that the very real threat of Japan catching a nuke or two and the risk of this boiling over into a hot conflict with China and I for one can't see how one could seriously propose to go to war preemptively.
Ring them with ABM systems, stare them down with the US nuclear triad and punish them with the highest possible degree of sanctions. But don't shot first and don't try to go into a pi**ing contest about who has the most high pitched rethoric.
The NKs mastered this diplomacy by crazy threats and a thousand little actions for more than half a century by now.
SK, Japan and others lived under the nuclear NK threat for some years now (and in the case of SK also a considerable conventional threat). But now that the US mainland may be in reach of nuclear tipped ICBMs a war should follow according to some posters here.
Such a war would devastate the Korean peninsular and kill tens if not hundreds of thousands. Add to that the very real threat of Japan catching a nuke or two and the risk of this boiling over into a hot conflict with China and I for one can't see how one could seriously propose to go to war preemptively.
Ring them with ABM systems, stare them down with the US nuclear triad and punish them with the highest possible degree of sanctions. But don't shot first and don't try to go into a pi**ing contest about who has the most high pitched rethoric.
The NKs mastered this diplomacy by crazy threats and a thousand little actions for more than half a century by now.
It's quite remarkable how isolated Trump is in his " the time for talk is over" stance. Lindsey Graham favors using force and finds "thousands" of casualties acceptable. I bet he'd sing a different tune if he lived in Seoul. And to paraphrase Nikki Haley, the US has kicked the can down the road all these years and they've reached the end of the road. And NK is 'begging for war'. KJU doesn't have to beg anyone for permission and he knows well enough that starting a war will end badly for him. So the onus is squarely on the US if it will give in to fear and war-mongering and initiate hostilities.
On the other side of the fence, world leaders are unanimous on the need for continued dialogue and diplomacy. Even Secs. Mattis and Tillerson reject Trunp's position. New ways to kick the can may yet be found to buy time to explore other possible approaches.
On the other side of the fence, world leaders are unanimous on the need for continued dialogue and diplomacy. Even Secs. Mattis and Tillerson reject Trunp's position. New ways to kick the can may yet be found to buy time to explore other possible approaches.
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Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I will play devil's advocate here, BTW no argument from me about my being "right in the head..."
If N Korea has gotten to the point where they have an ICBM capable of hitting the mainland/lower 48 US states, even if is just the closest major city like Seatle, WA, that is ~8,262 km... That would also mean the ICBM's could reach major cities in Central and parts of Western Europe like Berlin at 7,927 km or Oslo at 7,517 km. OTOH if a N Korean ICBM had an actual range sufficient to reach Los Angeles in SoCal at ~9,300 km, then basically every major or capital city in Europe except Lisbon would also be within range, as would every major population centre in Australia, India, etc. Basically the list of nations N Korea would have the ability to directly threaten would have expanded dramatically.
Now one area I disagree with that I consider absolutely has to be considered is the potential worst case scenario of an engagement with N Korea. So far people have mentioned casualty figures which have reached into the hundreds of thousands. IMO that is inaccurate and overly optimistic unless an engagement remained strictly conventional, and even then... Honestly I would anticipate worst case casualties numbering in the millions.
A potentially very dangerous gamble has to be made on what will lead to a better outcome. Act now or in the very near future, with the potential for millions of casualties in Korea, China, Japan, and/or Russia, or wait and see if better methods or opportunities present themselves in the future. A potential issue with waiting for future chances is that N Korea may soon go from being able to threaten millions of people, to having the ability to strike at over 5 bil. people. Basically having enough range to reach all of Asia, Europe, as well as portions of western North America and northern and eastern Africa.
It is also unlikely that the correct solution will be known, until after the issue is settled one way or another.
Factoring out robust BMD capabilities. Like the one currently being set up in Europe or the one already deployed around Moscow.
The argument might be that technological and military progress will make their nascent ICBM capability irrelevant.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Worst case scenarios would typically mean systems like BMD have minimal impact, if they are even functional.
While having BMD systems (providing they are at least partially effective) is certainly better than not having them, it also comes down to whether they are positioned where needed, and if they can be overwhelmed. If N Korean ICBM's can be limited to single digit numbers, with a single warhead, then BMD systems could be effective.
OTOH if it turns out N Korea has (or can steal/develop) MIRV capabilities, and/or it able to manufacture more ICBM's than the rest of the world expects... a perfectly functioning BMD system might only be able to limit or reduce the damage.
I hope BMD is more effective against NK ICBM's. They seem to be all basically scud variants and upgrades. This is likely to make them slower to accelerate, less reliable and have nice large returns.
BMD certainly isn't a magical bullet. NK isn't likely to have built up a large stockpile of longer range and nuclear capable missiles. It's going to be hard to pick out the really dangerous ones. NK has over 700 scud or better missiles.
But they do have a lot of smaller older missiles. Many are likely to be short range and conventionally armed. But time would be against us. Each passing day arguably they make more progress.
Once you have perfected putting an effective nuclear weapon on an ICBM then they will be much harder to catch. After that, the effort to develop MIRV and decoys is fairly trivial.