While it's clear we should continue to conduct the FON operations we have to date (which I understand are outside the 5nm ring around the militarized islands), there are two issues with pushing it further at this time.
One you have implicitly recognized. Any Chinese party considering the use of kinetic force against a ship inside the ring must consider the reaction of the owners country of that ship. In the case of the US, that might include overwhelming retaliatory action against what would be regarded as a clear act of war. In the case of Australia it would be... nothing. There would be nothing we could do. Travelling with a US ship might (but only might) help that but then adds little to their own FON operation.
The other of course is economic pressure to which Australia is uniquely vulnerable.
Our best course would seem to be to continue to push our luck on the issue within the reasonable approach we have being doing, make our position resolutely clear but just not get around to taking the extra step of going inside the 5nm ring.
A fair and level headed post. We are certainly pushing our luck. I think we have to. But it is fair to give other contributors to the thread some insight into the overall situation and thus provide understanding of exactly how bold the action is that I have proposed. Let's look at what we are up against.
Hopefully I can get the link right this time.
http://https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3G1EyvRZmOs
Martin Jacque isn't right on all points, in my opinion, but the value in his presentation is the way he challenges the contemporary western perspective on China. He didn't mention the saying 'there are no flies in China'. That was an episode from the '50's that illustrated Chinese determination and collective action. He makes good points on the power of the Chinese state and how its legitimacy differs from Western ideas. And also the competence of the state. In fact NE Asia governments have repeatedly demonstrated the effectiveness of centralised planning. Our own government looks somewhat ineffective in comparison.
A very important point he makes but isn't developed so much, is the idea of Chinese cultural superiority. The Middle Kingdom was the centre of humanity in the minds of Chinese over many centuries. Much of the desire to reassert the primacy of the Middle Kingdom and humiliate those associated with humiliating Chinese civilisation is about regaining that traditional dominance. So there is a good deal of ethnocentrism combined with revanchism fuelling China's foriegn policy.
He also points out rightly that America can't stop the tide of history. Ultimately they will fail to maintain their place of dominance. Not just China, but all of Asia is huge. The American economy must shrink in relative terms. And military power is built on economic power. I don't think the Americans yet realise what they are facing.
One point to disagree with Martin is that all Chinese accept the current political hierarchy in Chinese. That is self evidently not the case. Western Modernity has irreversibly changed China. The fact they are going out into the world to trade and to build naval power in itself shows the effect Western ideas have influenced China. But they haven't yet changed enough for us. Martin points out the West must change but really both China and West need to change to find accomodation.
And then there is little Australia and New Zealand. On the frontier of West and East. As the late Robin Williams described us, 'English Good Old Boys', sitting on the fulcrum of civilizational change. Well, for us the real issue is not whether we become part of Asia but rather on whose terms will we be intergrated. The trick for us is to be intergrated as much as possible on our own terms rather than someone else's terms. Bare in mind this is not new. Japan threatened Australia in WWII, which I believe was the first time a Western nation had been threatened with invasion by a non-Western power since the second siege of Vienna. It is not a surprise that we are the first Western nation to feel the full strenght of China's rise to power.
Today Beijing thinks this should happen on their terms. And they will rub it in our face. Already we are being threaten and insulted. We could roll over. This would suit a few well placed among us but won't be so good for most. We would have to accept being inferior and we would lose much opportunity to define our own future. Or we could stand up to them and demand to be respected. The later is the gutsy approach but it will involve a lot of pain. It would be best to succeed in the later rather that the former, but we might not succeed in the later. I guess it depends on how braves one is.
I should also mention the point I made in an earlier post, small countries can drag two large rivals into war. We probably don't want to drag the US and China into war. So how to stand up to them and make them respect us?
FONOP would be provocative. There will be retribution. If Australians aren't brave enough to face up to that, then we shouldn't do it. But we can't accept insults and intimidation. So I think we should do it. And what's more, the crew should bring mission specific equipment in the form of 191 pairs of cosplay style cats ears for the crew to wear on return to port. Just to make the point....
