War Against ISIS

STURM

Well-Known Member
Yes, it's not exactly the same, my point is that like the USSR, the Saudis are in a quagmire in their own backyard.
We can safely say that Saudi would not have embarked on its Yemen conflict without first informing Uncle Sam and getting Uncle Sam's approval. The Saudis would have explained that the whole point of them going to Yemen would have been to stop Iran from creating more trouble - this would have been music to the ears to some in U.S. government. It remains to be seen how long will Saudi and its allies be willing to stay in Yemen if there's no end in sight. Them packing their bags and leaving without achieving their objectives would be a major loss of face and would be a victory to Iran.

Same thing in Syria; if Assad is still firmly in power in 2-3 years from now will the U.S. still sing the same tune or will it change its policy? Will it acknowledge that Assad is there to stay and that U.S. backed rebels have failed to produce the desired results? How much influence will Saudi play in determining how the U.S. carries its policies towards Syria and Iran? If there is indication that the U.S. is willing or is forced to seek some level of accommodation with Iran [based on realpolitik and logic] will Saudi and its allies - together with Israel - create mischief?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
..Yemen can be supplied by sea & via Oman which is friendly to Iran.
No chance. Qaboos isn't stupid. He'll be carefully avoiding any involvement. What's worse than a war the other side of your border? A war spilling across that border. The Omanis have tried to keep good relations with both sides & be in a position to broker a peace.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... I didn't imply that US wanted to seize all of Korea in 1871. Even a limited objective was too risky.
In all of the Nineteenth Century, this was the largest U.S. military force to land on foreign soil outside of Mexico and Canada until the "Spanish American" War in 1898.
.
Mr Willson has had to jump through hoops to get that 'largest'. Firstly, he limits the geographical scope, excluding the main (by far) US military actions outside its borders. Then he plays a little rhetorical trick by counting only the landing party, as if it was all that mattered. It was far from the biggest military expedition the USA sent outside North America in that time, & did not fight anywhere near the biggest battle.

A polemic by a campaigner against US military action is probably not the most reliable source.

A limited objective wasn't too risky, but the Koreans surprised the Americans by their willingness to fight, however much it cost them. It was therefore deemed impractical to try to intimidate the Koreans with the small US force present. If the wrecking of their forts with heavy Korean & minimal US losses wasn't enough, then it was unlikely that anything such a small force could do would be. Doing more would be pointless slaughter.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
From their long military history, Koreans learned to resist & stand their ground, be it fighting each other, Jurchens, Chinese, Manchus, Mongols, & Japanese well before the event of 1871. BTW, their long resistance delayed the Mongols & saved Japan as the planned 2nd invasion was postponed & later wrecked by a typhoon. To them, "the ends justify the means". Otherwise, they would've been subjugated & assimilated by China &/Japan a long time ago.
Update: Turkey plans to establish buffer zone in Idlib with Russian co-operation in co-ordination with Syrian government offensive
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Since there's so much mention of Iran here given its relevance to the Syrian conflict; I've posted this here rather than open a new thread. A very interesting report on the state of Iran's ground air defence network.

TRISHUL

There's info on stuff bought during the years of the Shah [more than a thousand MIM-23 Hawks, more than 2 thousand Rapiers as well as 100 ZSUs from Russia and 200 pre owned ones] as well as what has been sourced more recently [including a reported buy of S300s from Croatia and various purchases from Russia and China including radar jamming and deception systems; radars, Tor-M1Es, HN-5As, QW-1s and QW-2s], info on a OTHR facility that ''provides 360-degree coverage of all Iran as well as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, Turkey and Pakistan'' and various rarely seen pics. For defence against cruise missiles there is the Chinese produced 23mm cannon. I had no idea that Iran obtained 128 RIM-66 Standards in the 1970's and later provided some to Russia and China which respectively reverse engineered it into Buk-M1E/3S90E Shtil-1 and LY-80. The Iranian version is called ''Sayyad-2'' with there also being a naval variant ''Mehrab''.

http://www.janes.com/article/29817/iran-rolls-out-another-medium-range-sam
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I had no idea that Iran obtained 128 RIM-66 Standards in the 1970's and later provided some to Russia and China which respectively reverse engineered it into Buk-M1E/3S90E Shtil-1 and LY-80.
What sad nonsense is this? Buk is the further development of the Kub system which was itself and upgrade of the Kvadrat.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
No arguments there. Was just quoting what was mentioned in the article. What I really don't get is the report of Croatian S300s to Iran. Both Russia and Ukraine wave denied supplying Croatia with S300s and Croatia selling it to Iran would have got in in trouble with the U.S.
 

Lcf

Member
No arguments there. Was just quoting what was mentioned in the article. What I really don't get is the report of Croatian S300s to Iran. Both Russia and Ukraine wave denied supplying Croatia with S300s and Croatia selling it to Iran would have got in in trouble with the U.S.
They only received a few parts of the system (launch tube?) which were later displayed in military parade in Zagreb. They got it from Ukraine which was publicly admitted by Croation officials along with the fact that it wasn't a full system, it wasn't functional/usable and that they got conned.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
In the 1980's they also got conned. The first batch of TOW or Hawks [can't remember which] delivered from Israel were inspected by the Iranians and were found to be older missiles, not what was originally promised - this is mentioned in ''Every Spy a Prince'' [Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman]. The problem however was later sorted out but of course there were several other cases where the Iranians didn't get what was promised due to them - out of desperation - having to procure stuff from various ''back channel'' sources.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
An interesting take on Macron, Assad and the Syrian conflict. Whilst I agree with a lot the writer says I have to question his assertion that : ''Syria will never be at peace as long as Assad remains in power''. No doubt Assad is a huge part of the problem but will there really be peace with him gone? After so many years of war what will a future Syria look like; will all the various sides be able to put away their differences [and guns] towards rebuilding the country? Will the outside powers allow a post Assad Syria to chart its own course?

[Why Macron Is Wrong About Assad]
Why Macron is wrong about Assad | Europe | Al Jazeera

''Syria will never be at peace as long as Assad remains in power. Over half of Syria's population will be unable to return home for fear of reprisal (and why wouldn't Assad seek and destroy his enemies, since he has learned that there is literally no crime that he cannot get away with).''

''Macron says he rejects neoconservative interventionism; but he needs to be just as leery of "realist" lack of imagination. It was the pursuit of "stability" after all that gave us the Mubaraks, Saddams and Assads. The aggravating dissonance will persist until the West learns to side with citizens instead of their oppressors''.

On another note after meeting Putin, Trump has said that it ''is time to work constructively with Russia '' but the US ambassador to the UN says that ''the US can't trust Russia and won't ever trust Russia'' and that ''talking to Russia should never mean that the US take our eyes off the ball". It's unclear if the Syrian issue was discussed at the Putin/Trump meeting.

[Donald Trump: Time To Work More Constructively With Russia]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40549475
 

Lcf

Member
In the 1980's they also got conned.
What I meant was, the Croatians got conned by the Ukrainians since that procurement too was a murky one. And given the chaos that reigned in both countries in the early 90s it's no wonder. It's been stated that parts of the S-300 ended up in some 3rd country, weather that's Iran or not it's anyone's guess.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Yes I know what you meant. I appreciate the info. Was just pointing out that it wasn't the first time the Iranians got conned :]
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
An interesting take on Macron, Assad and the Syrian conflict. Whilst I agree with a lot the writer says I have to question his assertion that : ''Syria will never be at peace as long as Assad remains in power''. No doubt Assad is a huge part of the problem but will there really be peace with him gone?

''Macron says he rejects neoconservative interventionism; but he needs to be just as leery of "realist" lack of imagination. It was the pursuit of "stability" after all that gave us the Mubaraks, Saddams and Assads. The aggravating dissonance will persist until the West learns to side with citizens instead of their oppressors''.
"The west must side with citizens instead of their oppressors"
Geezz..I guess for many 'Journalist/Writer' in the west..the Awalits is not part of Syrian citizens ?

Assad is fighting for his own power is nothing to be doubt..but in process his fight is also the fight for the Awalits and the Syiah..
Syria will have to be accepted to be partition at least 3 sides..The Awalits and Syiah part (where Assad will still be in power)..The Arab Sunni part, and the Kurdish part..as a nation..Syria as it was before is gone..
If the west tried to demand Syria without Assad..and it's same thing demanding Syria without Awalits and Syiah..like it or not the Awalits and Syiah in Syria already betting their safety with the survival of Assad regime..
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
IS has been dealt a severe blow in Iraq and it's hoped that the conditions that led to the rise of IS in Iraq will not be repeated. Hopefully the Iraqi government will go to great lengths to win over the Sunni population who feel marginalised at the hands of the Shia dominated government. A major problem in the past was that Sunni residents in areas recaptured/liberated from IS were treated harshly; seen by Shia army and paramilitary units as IS collaborators. Failure to win over the Sunnis will just result in continued support for IS.

Don’t underestimate Iraq’s historic victory against Isis – though the human cost was great | The Independent

''The crass response of the leaders of the US-led coalition who orchestrated the attack on west Mosul shows that we are back in the Vietnam era when American officers were happy to volunteer that they were destroying populated areas in order to save them''

''The decisive nature of what has just happened needs to be emphasised, because the likelihood of continuing violence in Iraq may give the mistaken impression that nothing much has radically changed. Iraq also has a long tradition of over-confident rulers declaring victory, such as President George W Bush in 2003, only to see their supposed gains evaporating within a few months or years.''
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Syrian forces have closed a large pocket in Suweida, surrounding rebel fighters. Fighting also continues around Akerbat, in Hama.

РеÑафа и Сувейда - Colonel Cassad

An interesting piece on the flow of ISIS fighters from the Balkans.

Inside Kacanik, Kosovo's jihadist capital - Telegraph

Russian helos providing CAS in Eastern Hama province.

Вертолеты ВКС РФ в ВоÑточной Хаме - Colonel Cassad

US light armor moving around Raqqa.

ССО СШРперебраÑывают бронетехнику к Ракке: diana_mihailova

Pro-Turkish fighter in Hama, Homs, and Idlib, are looking to negotiate with Russia, Syria, and Iran, on a potential move against al-Nusra. This comes at the same time as some of the US-backed fighters are refusing to go along with the US-Russia deal on de-escalation. This isn't won't be the first time the US fails to honor commitments due to its lack of control over the various armed groups in Syria.

Протурецкие боевики хотÑÑ‚ договоритьÑÑ Ñ Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸ÐµÐ¹ и РоÑÑией - Colonel Cassad
Боевики отказываютÑÑ ÑƒÑ‡Ð°Ñтвовать в американо-роÑÑийÑкой Ñделке - Colonel Cassad

A terrorist attack hit a Syrian Navy base in Latakia, a stark reminder that victory on the front and stability at home are different things.

ТеррориÑÑ‚Ñ‹ "ХайÑÑ‚ Тахрир аш-Шам" произвели взрыв на базе ВМС Сирии в Ð Ð°Ñ Ð¨Ð°Ð¼Ñ€Ðµ к Ñеверу от Латакии: diana_mihailova

It appears the UAE is behind the leak of Qatar documents that caused the current crisis. While it's bad taste to gloat, I can't help but feel a certain amount of satisfaction.

Meanwhile Qatar claims that the Saudis supported ISIS directly.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: The Washington Post: ÑØÀ áîëüøå íå âèíÿò ðîññèéñêèõ õàêåðîâ â êàòàðñêîì êðèçèñå. Êîíôëèêò ñïëàíèðîâàëè ÎÀÝ

Some photos of Russian troops in Syria.

Лучшее ÑредÑтво Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð²Ð¸Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии - Военно-политичеÑкий дневник Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‡ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾

Another Russian military adviser was killed in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîãèáøåãî â Ñèðèè âîåííîãî ñîâåòíèêà ïîõîðîíèëè â îðåíáóðãñêîì Ñîëü-Èëåöêå

The S-300V4 in Tartus, Syria.

С-300Ð’4 на позиции в ТартуÑе: diana_mihailova

Meanwhile the US is building an airbase in southern Syria near At-Tanf.

СШРÑтроÑÑ‚ авиабазу в Южной Сирии неподалеку от ÐÑ‚-Танфа (ФОТО): diana_mihailova

Russian BM-27 MLRS near Arak.

"Ураганы" под Ðраком - Colonel Cassad
 

gazzzwp

Member
U.S., Russia and Iran Battle to Build Bases in Syria as ISIS Falls
Next, there'll be a de-facto, if not de-jure, formal division of Syria into several distinct areas.
If I were Israel I would be very reassured by increasing US presence in the region. Balance through military capability, size of forces and territory occupation is the only way to force peace in the region.

The US is now one of three not one on it's own. Take a look at this eye watering CNN article. China is projecting a Navy of 500 ships to dwarf the US fleet. Very sobering indeed.

China's navy expands reach: Ships in Baltic for drills with Russia - CNN.com

You can bet that China is contemplating a permanent presence in the region.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Question....how is USA building bases in Syria?

Better questions is how they currently have bases in Syria?

I thought Assad does not want USA there?
Through the SDF proxy organisation they have created and through a much smaller proxy force in the south, they have access to syrian territory and are building bases. In fact, the good NATO ally Turkey disclosed the locations of some of them for the whole world to see.

Turkey's state-run news publishes locations of previously unknown US bases in northern Syria
 
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