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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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from an email alert scrape that hits my inbox.....

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that former national security adviser Michael Flynn has agreed to discuss ties between the Trump campaign and the Russian government in exchange for immunity. Flynn resigned from his position in February after it was revealed that he had met with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, allegedly discussing US sanctions against the country, before Trump was inaugurated as president, and failed to disclose these meetings to other members of the campaign or federal authorities. (Flynn has previously denied discussing sanctions during the meetings.) Flynn has apparently made the offer to testify to both the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, as well as the FBI, though so far has not received any formal invitations.
 

colay1

Member
So he should provide weapons to the corrupt government of Ukraine and escalate the situation in a deadlocked conflict in order to prove he is not in bed with Putin?

How about focusing on the live conflicts like Iraq and Syria? Or the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan?
Afghan troops withdraw from key area in Taliban fight - CNN.com

You should not let the mainstream media get into your head and dictate the priorities.
So just ignore what's happening in Ukraine? How convenient. The US, Russia and the UK were signatories to the Budapest Memorandum which recognized the independence and sovereignty of the Ukraine and extended to it security assurances. Russia has blatantly violated the agreement. The US should recognize it's responsibility to the Ukraine to put up a credible military response.
 

colay1

Member
from an email alert scrape that hits my inbox.....

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that former national security adviser Michael Flynn has agreed to discuss ties between the Trump campaign and the Russian government in exchange for immunity. Flynn resigned from his position in February after it was revealed that he had met with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, allegedly discussing US sanctions against the country, before Trump was inaugurated as president, and failed to disclose these meetings to other members of the campaign or federal authorities. (Flynn has previously denied discussing sanctions during the meetings.) Flynn has apparently made the offer to testify to both the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, as well as the FBI, though so far has not received any formal invitations.
Potentially a big development. I suspect there are a lot of nervous tummies in Washington as he was a constant companion to Trump in the months leading up to the election which should not be covered by Executive Privilege. Nothing much to chew on right now.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Potentially a big development. I suspect there are a lot of nervous tummies in Washington as he was a constant companion to Trump in the months leading up to the election which should not be covered by Executive Privilege. Nothing much to chew on right now.
True, but things may speed up a bit now, though the investigators will need to make sure they dot the i's and cross the t's. Should see a few more rats jumping ship, some may squeal. Sen Rubio is saying he suffered attempted hacks at least twice by 'the Russians' and Clint Watts, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute Program on National Security at George Washington University, told the committee that the Russians damaged the campaign of the senator

“Russia’s overt media outlets and covert trolls sought to sideline opponents on both sides of the political spectrum with adversarial views toward the Kremlin,”

Looks like the Putinbots were working overtime as has Mr Putin it seems, tying up the loose ends in Moscow. Follow the money and the trail of 'dead Russians,' expert urges senators - LA Times
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
So just ignore what's happening in Ukraine? How convenient. The US, Russia and the UK were signatories to the Budapest Memorandum which recognized the independence and sovereignty of the Ukraine and extended to it security assurances. Russia has blatantly violated the agreement. The US should recognize it's responsibility to the Ukraine to put up a credible military response.
The year is 2017, the window of opportunity has passed. What credible military response could there be? There was some NATO buildup near the russian border, what else? As a citizen of a NATO country I have no interest in seeing war reignite in that region. To what end?

I am vastly more interested in the situation in the Middle East because that affects me directly through the refugee waves. It would be just great if my (EU) money didn't go to feeding and housing hundreds of thousands of afghan refugees. And I don't want to see ISIS pop its ugly head in Afghanistan, like an undying hydra.

So USA needs to fix the mess it created. Libya is also USA's responsibility. You break it, you own it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So just ignore what's happening in Ukraine? How convenient. The US, Russia and the UK were signatories to the Budapest Memorandum which recognized the independence and sovereignty of the Ukraine and extended to it security assurances. Russia has blatantly violated the agreement. The US should recognize it's responsibility to the Ukraine to put up a credible military response.
One could argue that the Minsk Accords supercede the Budapest Memorandum which is defacto dead. But either way, there's very little chance that the US will pull the plug on Ukrainian support, leaving them dead in the water, and there's very little chance that the US will get involved in a Ukrainian adventure to recapture Donetsk. So realistically the most likely outcome is that the current outcome drags on until Ukraine hits an existential crisis of some sort. The kind that will redefine the future of Ukraine.

At this point the biggest problem Ukraine faces is not Russia, but it's own national elite. With poverty over 50% and rising, the economy still in an acute recession, the population fleeing in droves, and the national elites more interested in embezzling foreign credits (because there really isn't much else left to embezzle) then in rebuilding the national economy, Putin is just not as big of a threat by comparison.

Basically Trump may have wanted to change the nature of US involvement in the region, dealing with Putin and Co to make a deal that the US could profit from. But he's mostly locked in to continuing the Obama era policy. Unless of course he's prepared to look like he's selling Ukraine down the river. So it's mostly a moot point. His own party, the US Congress, and a large establishment currently in place, will all kick and scream, and scratch and bite, before they let Trump do a 180 on Russia.
 
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Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The year is 2017, the window of opportunity has passed. What credible military response could there be? There was some NATO buildup near the russian border, what else? As a citizen of a NATO country I have no interest in seeing war reignite in that region. To what end?

I am vastly more interested in the situation in the Middle East because that affects me directly through the refugee waves. It would be just great if my (EU) money didn't go to feeding and housing hundreds of thousands of afghan refugees. And I don't want to see ISIS pop its ugly head in Afghanistan, like an undying hydra.

So USA needs to fix the mess it created. Libya is also USA's responsibility. You break it, you own it.
What a delightfully interesting, and IMO ignorant and shallow, view to have.

As an example, IIRC, a total of 17 nations outside of Libya took part 13 as a part of NATO. Incidentally, four nations conducted operations prior to NATO taking command, these would be France, Canada, the UK and the US. Incidentally, France was among the most involved, taking action prior to the US, as well as carrying out the largest amount of strikes. Placing responsibility on the US and not on the other nations involved is quite rich IMO, especially since the US was neither the most involved in combat, or the lead instigator in getting involved.

As for ignoring the Ukraine and focusing instead on the Mideast and/or Afghanistan... That makes perfect sense. After all, what harm could possibly come to Europe from Russian involvement in the affairs of former Soviet and satellite/client states, or Cold War era opponents?

EDIT: Additional comment here. IIRC a number of the NATO nations were so active carrying out strike missions in Libya that they exhausted some of their respective munitions warstocks and the US had to ship them replacement munitions. Not exactly what I would consider evidence of the US being directly involved in place of other nations.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Gent's..as an Asian I would to ask this simple things..is there anyone that matter in West that 'still' really care with Ukraine future ?

Why I asked this, is simply, if the West does not care with Ukraine, and nobody else care..certaintly no one in Asia..Ukraine have 'tiny/miniscule' importance to Asian commerce..not much of technological resources that Ukraine can offer..the Chinese and Indian if they have some 'residual' attraction to Ukraine perhaps only to Ukraine gas turbine tech, that something still might be interested to both China and India..
But off course that will not 'moved' their possition compared to Russian importance..

What I'm getting at..if the west not going to do anything with Russia over Ukraine..then no one else will..
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The year is 2017, the window of opportunity has passed. What credible military response could there be? There was some NATO buildup near the russian border, what else? As a citizen of a NATO country I have no interest in seeing war reignite in that region. To what end?

I am vastly more interested in the situation in the Middle East because that affects me directly through the refugee waves. It would be just great if my (EU) money didn't go to feeding and housing hundreds of thousands of afghan refugees. And I don't want to see ISIS pop its ugly head in Afghanistan, like an undying hydra.

So USA needs to fix the mess it created. Libya is also USA's responsibility. You break it, you own it.
Cobber, you need some attitude adjustment regarding your opinion of outsiders. I have an uncle buried in a Commonwealth War Graves cemetery in Athens who died trying to prevent the Nazis from overrunning Greece. He is a long way from home because he sailed all the way from New Zealand to North Africa, then to Greece with the Second New Zealand Division. There are many of our people who died, wounded or taken prisoner trying to stem the Nazi advance through Greece. Our people didn't have to sail half way around the world to do that, but they did because to them it was the right thing to do. So I strongly suggest that you reappraise your attitude.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Cobber, you need some attitude adjustment regarding your opinion of outsiders. I have an uncle buried in a Commonwealth War Graves cemetery in Athens who died trying to prevent the Nazis from overrunning Greece. He is a long way from home because he sailed all the way from New Zealand to North Africa, then to Greece with the Second New Zealand Division. There are many of our people who died, wounded or taken prisoner trying to stem the Nazi advance through Greece. Our people didn't have to sail half way around the world to do that, but they did because to them it was the right thing to do. So I strongly suggest that you reappraise your attitude.
Did you just compare Greece's and allies resistance to the nazis with the ethnic russian separatists in Donetsk and the russian meddling in that conflict? That's not an argument.

Also, I do not subscribe to the idea that Russia is dangerous to NATO/EU and I want to look at things more pragmatically. I do not believe that because they are meddling in some territories next to their border in the former soviet countries, the big bad bear will invade into Europe. These are local conflicts that do not interest me in the slightest. (Besides, USA/NATO can obliterate Russia militarily in a widespread conflict and everyone knows that. No need to fake fear.)

We all made our thoughts on the matter clear. Now let's sit back and watch what happens. A whole lot of nothing probably. Widespread russophobia and sensationalistic ideas of Ukraine's sovereignty can be used as shallow arguments but will change nothing in reality.


What a delightfully interesting, and IMO ignorant and shallow, view to have.
This is the USA thread. USA has the biggest voice in the UN by far and the UN voted to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya in order to stop the army's operations against rebels. That's a de facto declaration of war. Maybe it was the right call to make, I won't say it's an error. But USA carries a big part of the responsibility.

Obama has admitted that the way the Gaddafi regime was toppled without any planning for the future was the worst mistake of his presidency.
President Obama: Libya aftermath 'worst mistake' of presidency - BBC News
So I insist that USA has a burden with regards to Libya. Other countries, too. But we were focusing on USA.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Also, I do not subscribe to the idea that Russia is dangerous to NATO/EU and I want to look at things more pragmatically. I do not believe that because they are meddling in some territories next to their border in the former soviet countries, the big bad bear will invade into Europe. These are local conflicts that do not interest me in the slightest. (Besides, USA/NATO can obliterate Russia militarily in a widespread conflict and everyone knows that. No need to fake fear.)

We all made our thoughts on the matter clear. Now let's sit back and watch what happens. A whole lot of nothing probably. Widespread russophobia and sensationalistic ideas of Ukraine's sovereignty can be used as shallow arguments but will change nothing in reality.
Of course Russia is no danger to NATO and/or the EU, after all, it is not like Russia can take any action against either group and/or their constituent member-states. Oh wait, Russia already has, and is.

One of the very large problems dealing with Russia, is that while NATO can likely defeat Russia in a conventional military sense, Russia knows this and has alternatives. A key one being a nuclear response, in which there are no victors, just losers and perhaps those who manage to survive (they might in fact actually be the worst off of the lot). Then there is this form of hybrid warfare which they seem to have utilized in part of the conflict with Georgia, and certainly against the Ukraine. Then of course there is the cyber and information conflicts which has appeared.

Speaking of the cyber and information conflict, it appears that it impacted the US 2016 Presidential election at several levels. Early on, there were Russian-led efforts which impacted which candidate ended up being nominated for the Republican party at the national level. There were then more efforts directed at building up the candidate Russia had preferred from the Republican party, while also denigrating the Democratic party candidate, additional effort was also directed into influencing the confidence US citizens had in the electoral process. While the world does not know the entire scope of the effort, or the impact, it does appear quite clear that Russia managed to achieve at least some of their desired goals.

There has also been evidence that Russia is carrying out similar actions again EU and NATO members. The manufactured story about German troops raping an underaged Lithuanian girl while deployed for the NATO Exercise Hunter deployment comes to mind. As do the campaigns currently underway to influence German and French elections by building up the respective far-right national candidates and parties, while attempting to tear down, weaken, or otherwise damage their respective opponents. An EU or NATO that is filled with discord has a much more difficult time conducting a unified response to current or future Russian actions, be they overt, covert, or a hybrid.

This is the USA thread. USA has the biggest voice in the UN by far and the UN voted to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya in order to stop the army's operations against rebels. That's a de facto declaration of war. Maybe it was the right call to make, I won't say it's an error. But USA carries a big part of the responsibility.

Obama has admitted that the way the Gaddafi regime was toppled without any planning for the future was the worst mistake of his presidency.
President Obama: Libya aftermath 'worst mistake' of presidency - BBC News
So I insist that USA has a burden with regards to Libya. Other countries, too. But we were focusing on USA.
The UNSC has five (5) permanent members, all with veto power. Any one of which could have exercised their veto and blocked the UN resolution authorized the no fly zone. Clearly, none did. Going further, three of those permanent UNSC members actually conducted combat operations against Libyan ground forces, being France, the UK, and the US. Again, France took action before the US did, since the US was reluctant to involve itself without there also being involvement by Mideast Arab states, with France also carrying out the largest number of overall strikes and sorties IIRC. Now I do believe that the US shares some responsibility, a shared responsibility is not at all what you posted about previously.

TSo USA needs to fix the mess it created. Libya is also USA's responsibility. You break it, you own it.
No mention, not even an allusion, to the involvement of other nations in the events which led up to the situation in Libya being what it currently is.

All of this still leads me to believe that you have an ignorant, shallow view. Being either unable, or unwilling, or perhaps both, so see the linkage between disparate causes and their near and long-term effects. More specifically, how the actions of an outside power, left unchecked, can impact how one lives.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Trump's candidacy when it started off was treated as a publicity stunt. Almost noone took him seriously and most thought he would drop off the race at any moment. And you want me to believe that russian intelligence kept propping him up from so early on until he won the elections? There is a more plausible explanation than Putin's hand: populism and the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton.

I am sure russian intelligence is actively at work in foreign countries but you overstate their success and influence. I will only reconsider my opinion if concrete evidence of russian manipulation being successful surfaces. So far, absolutely nothing substancial has been revealed. And you know it full well but still say that it's clear that Russia achieved their goals. I am sure they wanted Trump to win but that doesn't mean they had a significant influence.

Your attempts to appeal to russophobia with a potential nuclear confrontation or "hybrid warfare" are directed to the wrong person. In my previous post I explained I do not see any danger to NATO/EU countries or what we call the West. There will not be any widespread confrontation and certainly no nuclear war. A desperate argument. Putin may be ruthless against his opponents but is a stable and logical geopolitical actor. Proven many times in many crisis situations, like the su-24 shootdown.

I am sorry that through my phrasing about the Libyan conflict I put all responsibility on the US. Force of habit because of their constant meddling in the Middle East, I wasn't following that situation at that time. My thinking was that the EU is swarmed with immigrants from Africa through Libya and Italy. If you care about the EU you should want that conflict resolved in a positive way. Because the political situation in Italy may lead to an anti-EU government very soon. And no it will not be Putin's hand again ...
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
I want to make a second post to address your last point about powers being left unchecked. Russia is absolutely *not* left unchecked. There have been costly sanctions, support of Ukraine, a military buildup, threats upon threats, all kinds of meddling in Russia's politics etc. Putin knows the limits and stays within them, also taking advantage of plausible deniability heh. Russia is not left unchecked, annexing a russian majority region where they had military bases and unofficially supporting russian separatists right at their backyard is within the "limits" of a global power. Whether it's painful for you or not, there could not and should not have been a widespread conflict with some NATO intervention.

Just like China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and building up reefs into naval bases, with USA reduced to freedom of operation exercises. Another global power pursuing its interests and setting its own "limits". What can the USA do about it? Not much.

Do you know why? Here comes the punchline: Because USA also has its own limits and is not "unchecked". Maybe this never crossed your mind. But this is why we are discussing, to provide food for thought.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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The issue of checking Russian behaviour from your comments appears to be based on symmetrical outcome or around traditional reciprocity - the game has changed as those sanctions imposed on Russia might have an effect on the direct focus/target of intent - but the Russians have responded in a hybrid manner

the russians have actually countered those checks by reverting to more sophisticated assymetrical options

the issue of russia trying to manouvre and create new vectors in warfare has been demonstrated time and time again - and I can tell you that as someone who used to work in a cyber area, we used to see attack vectors streaming out of russia and china designed to interfere or probe into critical and sensitive modes in blocks of seconds, if not milliseconds due to sheer volume. The russians started doing this from a concentrated model level circa 2010

and I'd argue that in absolute terms, they run pretty close to china on cyber capability - and as for using this as an attack vector, they are in a league of their own

the way that you seek to blame the US and/or Europe for some of your arguments has lacked merit and ignores the history around those events

However - and this is the big "However"

This is a military forum, there is a reason as to why we minimise international political debate and we've learnt that from bad experiences on here approx 10 years ago

If there is a desire to talk about american (or european) politics on the basis of military and geopolitical decisions then that's fine - it it migrates to an issue of turning the thread into a punching bag to experess personal ideology - or a vehicle to articulate personal discontent, then those posts will be scrubbed pretty quickly

there's an "animal farm" metaphor which can be used here - so pause and think about it


There is no more appetite and goodwill left for this thread to continue down the path its been recently taking.
 
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Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Had a thought bubble following the recent decision by the US Congress to permit ISP's to sell customer browsing data without informing or receiving consent from customers.

The potential data mining value of such information is likely clear to most from a commercial perspective, but what about from an intel perspective? From my POV, removing a protection on, or increasing the potential dissemination of end-user data, is almost begging for hostile interests to exploit such a change.

Does anyone have a different opinion?
 

colay1

Member
Certainly there is potential for embarrassing information in one's browsing history to be used to attack/coerce. I'm scratching my head trying to reconcile this with all the brouhaha about government collecting metadata. Apparently privacy rights don't matter if there's a buck to be made.
 
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