I though that we could have a little discussion upon the topic of President Trumps election & its possible impacts on NZ defence policy. Before we get started just a reminder about the rules regarding politics.
In his campaigning for the election Trump stated that he expected other nations to pay for their defence and that allies and friends would have to pay for the cost of US forces in their territory or said US forces would pack up and leave. If other nations are not willing to pay for their defence then Trump said why should the US expend treasure and blood in doing so. However apart from that Trump has given very little in the way of policy so we don't know what kind of foreign and defence policy direction that he is going to take. He has also said that he will put 45% tariffs upon Chinese imports into the US which will thrill Beijing no end, not. Another and more important point is who and how good his advisers are and more importantly will he listen to them and heed their advice or will he ignore them and will it be his way or the highway?
Bringing this to a NZ context, Trump is anti trade so basically the TPPA is dead in the water as far as the US context is concerned, plus NZ imports into the US could expect significant tariffs being placed upon them. He also says that he is unilaterally going to withdraw from trade deals like NAFTA, which will be bad for Mexico and the Canadians. Also the Aussies might find that their FTA with the US is sunk as well. All of this creates economic uncertainty which impacts upon the NZGs revenue.
Historically the NZGs have a record for being somewhat stingy on defence, especially when they have had a large nation as a backstop. The UK when we were part of the British Empire until 1945 and after the WW2 the US until 1986. In 1991 Ruth Richardson delivered her "Mother of All Budgets" which drastically reduced defence expenditure from around 2% GDP to around 1.4 - 1.6% GDP which was a reduction of 23%. The Jim Bolger National Party govt was on an across the board govt cost cutting spree and they were using the gas axe and chain saw methodology. As the decade progressed and the Labour govt was elected in 1998 defence funding allocations gradually decreased as a % of GDP. Starting in 1991 and since then each decrease and subsequent refusal to increase has always been because the country can't afford it, which is a fallacy used as a political expedient in order to pursue ideological goals.
So now we have a US that may turn inward and become somewhat isolationist requiring other countries to take greater, if not, full responsibility (read financial i.e., pay for) for their defence and security requirements which will be anathema to Treasury and NZ pollies. The question is will this be enough of a jolt to encourage the NZG to return to properly funding NZDF; minimum the NATO standard of 2%GDP? Or will they be like the ostrich and bury their head in the sand?
In his campaigning for the election Trump stated that he expected other nations to pay for their defence and that allies and friends would have to pay for the cost of US forces in their territory or said US forces would pack up and leave. If other nations are not willing to pay for their defence then Trump said why should the US expend treasure and blood in doing so. However apart from that Trump has given very little in the way of policy so we don't know what kind of foreign and defence policy direction that he is going to take. He has also said that he will put 45% tariffs upon Chinese imports into the US which will thrill Beijing no end, not. Another and more important point is who and how good his advisers are and more importantly will he listen to them and heed their advice or will he ignore them and will it be his way or the highway?
Bringing this to a NZ context, Trump is anti trade so basically the TPPA is dead in the water as far as the US context is concerned, plus NZ imports into the US could expect significant tariffs being placed upon them. He also says that he is unilaterally going to withdraw from trade deals like NAFTA, which will be bad for Mexico and the Canadians. Also the Aussies might find that their FTA with the US is sunk as well. All of this creates economic uncertainty which impacts upon the NZGs revenue.
Historically the NZGs have a record for being somewhat stingy on defence, especially when they have had a large nation as a backstop. The UK when we were part of the British Empire until 1945 and after the WW2 the US until 1986. In 1991 Ruth Richardson delivered her "Mother of All Budgets" which drastically reduced defence expenditure from around 2% GDP to around 1.4 - 1.6% GDP which was a reduction of 23%. The Jim Bolger National Party govt was on an across the board govt cost cutting spree and they were using the gas axe and chain saw methodology. As the decade progressed and the Labour govt was elected in 1998 defence funding allocations gradually decreased as a % of GDP. Starting in 1991 and since then each decrease and subsequent refusal to increase has always been because the country can't afford it, which is a fallacy used as a political expedient in order to pursue ideological goals.
So now we have a US that may turn inward and become somewhat isolationist requiring other countries to take greater, if not, full responsibility (read financial i.e., pay for) for their defence and security requirements which will be anathema to Treasury and NZ pollies. The question is will this be enough of a jolt to encourage the NZG to return to properly funding NZDF; minimum the NATO standard of 2%GDP? Or will they be like the ostrich and bury their head in the sand?
Last edited:
Of course the large sledgehammer is the Ministry Of Works (now extinct) repair tool Number 3.
