War Against ISIS

Toblerone · May 23, 2016

Syria Direct

That was the article I was talking about.

I think partitioning Syria would be the best longterm plan but who can do it? The only thing in the minds of the powerful people is to create a federation state which they can control, then pay them ... excuse me I meant train and equip to fight the jihadis, loan them money for reconstruction and they basically own them. Has anyone shown the courage to talk about partitioning?

Noone wants to admit a nation should correspond to a certain demographic, which should be the strong majority. Native citizens of european countries will be the next ones to realise what they had and what they gave up imo.

Muukalainen · May 24, 2016

Iraq denies using live fire against Green Zone protesters | Reuters

Iraq cannot stand without the support of Shiites, and even if the Abadi government is telling the truth about using live rounds, it is still creating a dangerous rift between the government and the supporters of arguably the most influential Shiite leader. Abadi needs to gain real control over his people before he attempts any aggression against IS. If the Falluja offensive fails, it could be his and his government's death blow.

gazzzwp · May 24, 2016

IS attack on Russian/Syrian airbase:

Syria conflict: IS 'destroyed helicopters' at T4 base - BBC News

I'll try and find out more. Is this evidence of re-arming, and covert support for IS?

Rimasta · May 24, 2016

Feanor said:
Both Iran and Russia have only committed limited deployments, of ground forces, but the pattern has been for both parties' deployments to grow. Note how during the recent offensive in Khan Tuman, the Iranians stood their ground against the rebels and took significant losses only retreating when the position became untenable, while the SAA/NDF fled rapidly, putting the Iranians in an untenable position in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the Russian casualties stemmed from the fact that the ground forces they're supporting didn't do a good job of securing an area.

I must say, sounds an awful lot like mission creep to me, and if the SAA is as reliable as you say, it also sounds reminiscent of the U.S. militaries experiences working with the ARVN. I guess the question then becomes, how many Russian lives is Syria worth to Russia?

ngatimozart · May 25, 2016

Operation 'Break Terrorism', the battle to retake Falluja, started yesterday (Monday). The city is now surrounded with no obvious escape routes for Daesh. The Iraqi army has warned all civilians to leave prior to the battle but if they can't to fly a white flag above there locale. A lot depends upon how Daesh decides to defend the city - a fight to the death or try and slink away.

In northern Syria, Kurdish forces, backed by Coalition air strikes, have launched a major operation against the Daesh held areas north of Raqqa. The Kurds have stated that this is not an operation to liberate Raqqa. This operation also has Russian support.

Feanor · May 25, 2016

ngatimozart said:
Operation 'Break Terrorism', the battle to retake Falluja, started yesterday (Monday). The city is now surrounded with no obvious escape routes for Daesh. The Iraqi army has warned all civilians to leave prior to the battle but if they can't to fly a white flag above there locale. A lot depends upon how Daesh decides to defend the city - a fight to the death or try and slink away.

In northern Syria, Kurdish forces, backed by Coalition air strikes, have launched a major operation against the Daesh held areas north of Raqqa. The Kurds have stated that this is not an operation to liberate Raqqa. This operation also has Russian support.

Sorry, I've been busy lately, but here's some materials on the Fallujah battle. Anyone else getting cognitive dissonance from images of BMP-1s and Humvees assaulting together?

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Toblerone · May 25, 2016

I've seen iranian tomcats, iraqi abrams and endless convoys of jihadists in pristine Toyotas, I can handle it

I like that the two operations are synchronised, if some successes start pouring in, I am sure there are a LOT of opportunists in IS ranks that will defect. Also, there will probably be more terrorist atacks in Europe...

I don't know what has been promised to the Kurds, but good for them. Erdogan must be steaming.

STURM · May 25, 2016

Rimasta said:
I guess the question then becomes, how many Russian lives is Syria worth to Russia?

The question really should be : if Assad falls and Syria disintegrates because the various rebel factions are too busy fighting each other; how damaging would it be for Russia's national interests and for long term stability in an already volatile Middle East?

More than a 100 were killed in bomb blast at various locations 2 days ago in Syria.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...d-government-strongholds-160523090721925.html

ngatimozart · May 30, 2016

Iraqi forces have started to enter Fallujah after an artillery bombardment. It is facing fierce resistance and there is concern about 50,000 civilians believed trapped within the city. The assault is supported by artillery and coalition airpower. This could turn into a very bloody drawn out fight that will tax the Iraqi determination to win and the Daesh will to survive. Ultimately it will come down to the courage and discipline of the Iraqi soldier and the Daesh fighter.

bdique · May 31, 2016

ngatimozart said:
Operation 'Break Terrorism', the battle to retake Falluja, started yesterday (Monday). The city is now surrounded with no obvious escape routes for Daesh. The Iraqi army has warned all civilians to leave prior to the battle but if they can't to fly a white flag above there locale. A lot depends upon how Daesh decides to defend the city - a fight to the death or try and slink away. [...]

ngatimozart said:
Iraqi forces have started to enter Fallujah after an artillery bombardment. It is facing fierce resistance and there is concern about 50,000 civilians believed trapped within the city. The assault is supported by artillery and coalition airpower. This could turn into a very bloody drawn out fight that will tax the Iraqi determination to win and the Daesh will to survive. Ultimately it will come down to the courage and discipline of the Iraqi soldier and the Daesh fighter.

There's one thing I don't understand. The city was completely surrounded, with all escape routes for Daesh cut off. From my understanding, giving the enemy no escape pretty much forces them to make a last stand or die trying - basically making them highly motivated \. I have zero sympathy for Daesh, but wouldn't this also mean running the risk of high Iraqi casualty rates?

Of course unless I'm missing something i.e. the whole op is about sending a message/Daesh morale in Fallujah has hit rock bottom/the strategy to retake is attrition. In any case, I'm hoping this op ends with Daesh eradicated from Fallujah, and minimal casualties to the Iraqi Army/civilians.

ngatimozart · May 31, 2016

bdique said:
There's one thing I don't understand. The city was completely surrounded, with all escape routes for Daesh cut off. From my understanding, giving the enemy no escape pretty much forces them to make a last stand or die trying - basically making them highly motivated \. I have zero sympathy for Daesh, but wouldn't this also mean running the risk of high Iraqi casualty rates?

Of course unless I'm missing something i.e. the whole op is about sending a message/Daesh morale in Fallujah has hit rock bottom/the strategy to retake is attrition. In any case, I'm hoping this op ends with Daesh eradicated from Fallujah, and minimal casualties to the Iraqi Army/civilians.

The idea is to eliminate Daesh, not to give them a light tap with a wet bus ticket. The Iraqis cannot afford for the Daesh terrorists to escape and create mayhem elsewhere.They have left routes open for non combatants but these are being checked as they leave. The thought being put forward by MSM is that Daesh is preventing the non combatants from leaving and will use them as human shields. That does not surprise in the slightest.

bdique · May 31, 2016

ngatimozart said:
The idea is to eliminate Daesh, not to give them a light tap with a wet bus ticket. The Iraqis cannot afford for the Daesh terrorists to escape and create mayhem elsewhere.They have left routes open for non combatants but these are being checked as they leave. The thought being put forward by MSM is that Daesh is preventing the non combatants from leaving and will use them as human shields. That does not surprise in the slightest.

Fair enough, looks like annihilation of Daesh in Fallujah is indeed one of the key military objectives. Having Daesh remnants flee to fight another day would make victory ring hollow, given their ability to reorganise themselves.

Re: Civilian human shields. Yeah, that thought sickens me to no end. I'm just glad that the RoEs for coalition aircraft are pretty tight. The last thing you'd want to see is a situation where civilian casualties get exploited by Daesh as a propaganda /recruitment tool.

STURM · May 31, 2016

Efraim Halevy talking about medical aid given by the Israelis to al-Nusra men. Sometime ago, Vice News had footage of rebels being treated in an Israeli hospital after managing to enter Israel from the Golan. Reminds me of Palestinian fighters who crossed the Jordon River into Israel during Black September to escape the Jordanian army.

Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - Al Jazeera English

This is interesting - ''Halevy also says he would not support the treatment of wounded Hezbollah fighters because Israel had been targeted by Hezbollah, but "not specifically targeted by al-Qaeda". True, Israel has not ''specifically been targeted by al-Qaeda''; as the main aim of Al Qaeda was overthrowing the Gulf monarchies and ridding Muslim lands of Western troops but it still sees Israel as an enemy. Also, despite its insistence that it does not deal with terrorists; Israel has dealt with Hamas and Hezbollah in the past; regarding cease fires and the exchange of prisoners.

bdique said:
The last thing you'd want to see is a situation where civilian casualties get exploited by Daesh as a propaganda /recruitment tool.

Very true but the thing to bear in mind - especially in places such as Raqqa - large parts of the population are actually IS supporters. Making use of civilians for propaganda purposes is certainly not beyond IS but I suppose it would depend on the level of support it gets from locals in a particular area. In some areas controlled by IS the civilians apparently support IS not so much because they share the same ideology but because they distrust the Shias and are worried about what will happen if the Shia dominated Iraqi army and militias liberate the areas.

Unfortunately, whilst we often hear of civilian casualties in Syria and Iraq; we hear less of civilian casualties in Yemen; caused by strikes performed by Saudi and its allies.

Toblerone · May 31, 2016

People like to think of ISIS as some terrorist group that has taken over some cities and is terrorizing the people, keeping them hostage.

I believe there are a lot of supporters in the main areas under their control, like Fallujah. They had years to get away but did not. They stayed there and are helping ISIS economically and of course shielding them in a way.

I've seen a lot of videos from this conflict. I've seen kids with ak-74s, I've seen IS beheadings in front of big cheering crowds ... at this point it's all a grey area IMO.

EDIT:
The syrians lost a helo over Deir Ezzor, both crew dead:
http://www.syriahr.com/en/2016/05/31/46588

STURM · Jun 1, 2016

Toblerone said:
People like to think of ISIS as some terrorist group that has taken over some cities and is terrorizing the people, keeping them hostage.

That's indeed the case in some areas; people unable to leave and having no choice but to be seen to support IS. In other areas however IS has genuine support; not necessarily by people who share IS's ideology but dues to various reasons including dissatisfaction or distrust with the Shias. We saw the same in Afghanistan; in that the Talibs had genuine support; by people who might not have shared the Talibs ideology but because they were against the presence of Western troops or saw the Kabul government as corrupt and inefficient.

Atasas · Jun 1, 2016

........

Feanor · Jun 2, 2016

gazzzwp · Jun 2, 2016

Russia considers sending in special forces ground troops.

Russian ground operation in Syria 'under discussion' - AJE News

8 months after the start of their air campaign the war rages on and the regime is still no closer to regaining the country.

I was just wondering about the US special forces operating in the north and what this could mean in terms of US/Russian co-operation.

Any thoughts?

surpreme · Jun 2, 2016

gazzzwp said:
Russia considers sending in special forces ground troops.

Russian ground operation in Syria 'under discussion' - AJE News

8 months after the start of their air campaign the war rages on and the regime is still no closer to regaining the country.

I was just wondering about the US special forces operating in the north and what this could mean in terms of US/Russian co-operation.

Any thoughts?

The SAA have taken some areas back if you remember 8 months ago they were on the run. Russia already have a small number of special forces unit there. But putting more specialize unit will make big change in the war. I don't have to remind forum member how tough Spetsnaz are if they are deployed. I'm here to tell this U.S. Special Forces are making a big different with the Kurds. The Kurds are benefitting from there assistance. The Russian will not tell us that the Spetsnaz are in Syria until a member is killed or someone tell on them so we won't know anyway when they are in Syria.

Toblerone · Jun 2, 2016

The SAA sometimes are making two steps forward and one step backwards but generally I believe they are much more powerful and can dictate the future of Syria in a big way. Before the russian involvement they were collapsing.

Also, the main threat to Assad was the emergence of a western-backed rebel faux-coalition, that they could use to topple him for good. This whole plan failed, the so-called FSA are now a joke, many of them joined the ISIL racks after they weren't being paid enough. And they are suffering huge defeats like now in Azaz.

The USA train & equip program with those "moderate rebels" failed and now they rely on the SDF which is mostly kurds. The Turks tried to take the spotlight away from the kurds but their efforts backfired:
First Turkey-backed operation against IS becomes a fiasco

The russians and the regime keep bombing whoever they want and controlling where the humanitarian aid is going, the rebels bled themselves dry with infighting and are being finally dislodged from Damascus, they are surrounded tightly in many important areas...

Sure, ISIS are still powerful but they aren't as much of a direct threat to Assad. So, in the long term it will be the SAA with russian/iranian/hezbollah assistance and the strong kurds with USA assistance that will be the most powerful actors. Not some rebels in Idlib or in small pockets of resistance and not the sunni jihadists, whose fate is sealed.

I hope Turkey doesn't use the Azaz crisis to perform a military intervention.

EDIT: This is just the way I personally see things at this point, I am willing to be convinced otherwise.

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