War Against ISIS

Feanor · Feb 24, 2016

At Hanasser, south of Aleppo, the ISIS offensive has been halted, and an SAA counter-offensive is about to re-establish control of the road. But this came at the price of relocating the Tiger Force south from the Safir planes. It's excellent timing that the Kuweiris pocket was closed and cleared shortly prior to this.

However for now the road remains cut.

Ð¥Ð°Ð½Ð°ÑÑÐµÑ€ 24.02 - Colonel Cassad
Ð¥Ð°Ð½Ð°ÑÑÐµÑ€ 23.02. - Colonel Cassad

Dave__ · Feb 25, 2016

Syrian regime forces have retaken Khanaser today.
The road is still blocked by Daesh, however.
Interactive map here: https://stratreview.wordpress.com/2016/02/25/assads-forces-retake-khanaser/

Feanor · Feb 26, 2016

The road to Aleppo has been deblockaded. The ceasefire is about to start but Russia will continue to fight against al-Nusra, Daesh, and a few of the other groups including Islamists, and those who refuse to abide by the ceasefire. I'll try to make a bigger update post today or tomorrow.

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Toblerone · Feb 26, 2016

I don't understand why the kurds and the SAA at Aleppo don't link up. At one point it's like 2 kms distance between them, right?

Come to think of it, can the rebels use that road to get to/from Aleppo? And stay alive?

Feanor · Feb 26, 2016

Toblerone said:
I don't understand why the kurds and the SAA at Aleppo don't link up. At one point it's like 2 kms distance between them, right?

Come to think of it, can the rebels use that road to get to/from Aleppo? And stay alive?

What do you mean? As far as I can tell, if you're talking about blocking the Azaz corridor, the SAA and the Kurds have linked up. There's no rebel forces between them. It's a layercake, from the Turkish border it's rebels, then Kurds, then SAA, then rebels again.

Or are you talking about Aleppo itself, the road marked as 214 leading into the city? Because in that spot the YPG has been slowly gaining ground recently, with reported support of Russian airstrikes. That's pretty dense urban area, and we know how much success the SAA has had clearing areas like that.

So it may be that they're not a priority yet. It may be that they hope to use the Kurds to take that road, and trap the rebels. It may even be that they're aiming for a bigger pocket around Aleppo. Note the push south-west out of Tannurah.

surpreme · Feb 29, 2016

The Russian gave a hint that when civil war is over create a Federal system of government. That should help Syria stay together to united against ISIS. With the Syrian government permission can conduct a joint operation against ISIS which include Arab forces. That right there would be total destruction of ISIS you have to have Syrian forces involved so it will succeed. This is if they ready to just hit ISIS forces for real.

Toblerone · Feb 29, 2016

And under whose power? There are so many factions that have fought for years to get power, they will not give up their arms without getting some of the pie.

I would like to see Syria partitioned and a russo-iranian sponsored state to be created. Also a kurdish state at the north. Yeah, that will go well with Turkey ...

And as for the rest, there can be a UN intervention and easily clear it all up within a few months.

I don't know if I'm being realistic here, though. They will probably try to make some transitional government work,as usual. Just to postpone the problems to later years, just to get rid of the hot potato.

Anyway, I see very few news the last several days, has the fighting died down a bit? I mean, I don't see any updates here by Feanor or in some other sites I visit.

John Fedup · Feb 29, 2016

Toblerone said:
And under whose power? There are so many factions that have fought for years to get power, they will not give up their arms without getting some of the pie.

I would like to see Syria partitioned and a russo-iranian sponsored state to be created. Also a kurdish state at the north. Yeah, that will go well with Turkey ...

And as for the rest, there can be a UN intervention and easily clear it all up within a few months.

I don't know if I'm being realistic here, though. They will probably try to make some transitional government work,as usual. Just to postpone the problems to later years, just to get rid of the hot potato.

Anyway, I see very few news the last several days, has the fighting died down a bit? I mean, I don't see any updates here by Feanor or in some other sites I visit.

Partitions and border realignments don't usually work out all that well but maybe in this case it may be the only solution. Turkey will indeed be pi$$ed if any Kurdish state emerges from this mess. IMO the Kurds deserve a state after all the heavy lifting they have been doing.

Feanor · Feb 29, 2016

Ranger25 · Mar 2, 2016

John Fedup said:
Partitions and border realignments don't usually work out all that well but maybe in this case it may be the only solution. Turkey will indeed be pi$$ed if any Kurdish state emerges from this mess. IMO the Kurds deserve a state after all the heavy lifting they have been doing.

I agree with your thoughts on the Kurds and an Independent State. They have provided many State Like qualitative for more than a decade and have played a competent and stabilizing Role in Northern Iraq for over a decade.

gazzzwp · Mar 3, 2016

John Fedup said:
Partitions and border realignments don't usually work out all that well but maybe in this case it may be the only solution. Turkey will indeed be pi$$ed if any Kurdish state emerges from this mess. IMO the Kurds deserve a state after all the heavy lifting they have been doing.

Why is the prospect so feared by Turkey? If the Kurds do end up with a state of their own it will be at the expense of Syrian territory not Turkish, and the Kurds may well stop their terrorist activities. From where I'm standing it could be a lot worse for Turkey.

The smartest thing they can do to disarm the Russian campaign being waged against them is to make agreements with the Kurds.

Toblerone · Mar 3, 2016

If you are looking at 5 years ahead, maybe. But who knows what might be happening in 40 years? Maybe Turkey will find itself in some war with Russia, Greece, who knows. And having a kurdish insurrection in your country and then an invasion by a kurdish state at your backside would be a nice way to get obliterated.

There could very easily be a civil war in the horizon, did you follow what happened recently? It could have erupted after the huge bombing of that pro-kurdish rally.

Maybe a traitor/naive leftist/progressive will at some point gain power and undo all the decades of hardline turkish stance. Here's hoping.

Vertias · Mar 5, 2016

Former CIA director David Petraeus supports Al Qaeda

Former Army general and CIA director David Petraeus has been urging US officials to consider using the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front to fight ISIS in Syria, The Daily Beast reported.

rt.com/usa/314034-petraeus-nusra-front-isis/

GermanHerman · Mar 5, 2016

Vertias said:
Former Army general and CIA director David Petraeus has been urging US officials to consider using the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front to fight ISIS in Syria, The Daily Beast reported.

rt.com/usa/314034-petraeus-nusra-front-isis/

RT is below FOX News tier on reliablity and the website they link to seems to be the worst kind of click-bait, something along the lines of the british "the sun", I wouldn't give much, or any for that isntance, credibility to the report.

Sure, 15 years is a long time but I'm pretty sure the US still remembers 9/11 and I just can't see any sane politician risking their entire career on backing Al Qaeda affiliates.

On the kurdish state I think it is to short sighted to think once the kurds would gather any territory of their own they would just forget about all the other land that their people have been living on for centuries.

If there is a kurds as a ethnicitie will always claim the entire kurdish territory, as long as they are just an ethnic group it is way easier to ignore these claims than when you deal with a somewhat legitimate state. Allowing the kurds to form their own state is the first step in aknowledging the legitimacy of their territorial claims and therefore Turkey can't allow it to happen. Principiis obsta if you know what I mean.

Toblerone · Mar 5, 2016

Vertias said:
Former Army general and CIA director David Petraeus has been urging US officials to consider using the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front to fight ISIS in Syria, The Daily Beast reported.

rt.com/usa/314034-petraeus-nusra-front-isis/

That's old news from 1 Sep 2015. I had missed it then though. What a signature strategy of a US general, "partner building" no matter the cost.

In other news, I have been reading the ISW blog, they are whining that the Assad coalition is attacking and gaining favourable ground in preparation of a huge Aleppo encirclement, taking advantage of the fact that Al Nusra has a presence there, so they aren't covered by the ceasefire.

Well, of course... If a city is split in a peaceful coexistence between a jihadi group and a "moderate" group, why wouldn't they get bombed and attacked? If they were moderates they would expel the jihadis, they are UN-recognized terrorists. But they are working with them, using their USA/Saudi provided equipment, that is just great.

(Sidenote: I hope Bernie becomes president and disrupts the US/Saudi axis of evil.)

EDIT:
@Germanherman
Try googling "petraeus al qaeda" if you don't trust RT on direct quotes even

Vertias · Mar 5, 2016

USA blamed Assad for gassing and trying hard to deliver Syria to the rebels

Last September, the UN published a much-anticipated UN report concluding that chemical weapons were used on a relatively large scale in the Ghouta area of Damascus on 21 August. At the time, the US, UK and France said the report vindicated their stance that the Syrian government was to blame - something Damascus denies.

bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24130181

John Kerry the incarnation of evil, went all out to blame Assad and convince everyone else to bomb Assad.

In reality it was USA supported Rebel who gassed the people.

Toblerone · Mar 5, 2016

There is no definite proof. I remember reading a report (I think it was that one by the UN?) and the conclusion was that it was "probably" Assad forces that executed the chemical attacks.

Well, you won't go very far with "probably". Especially after the USA set a precedent of sidestepping the UN and invading Iraq with the pretext of dangerous chemical weapons (and specifically WMD to scare the people)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
I remain ... unconvinced. From the slim pickings that they found (or "found") the weapons were unusable, inactive, containing only trace chemicals, or were written off or designated for scrapping. That's all they could find out of a military size that Iraq had? Then obviously Saddam was cooperating and the weapons were discarded. Bonus points for the CIA buying some unusable weapons or scrapped weapons from some unnamed individual to keep them off the black market. Whatever.

Anyway, without proof, such isolated events are not actionable. That's a great word, isn't it?

EDIT: By the way, what was USA doing when Iraq was actually using chemical weapons against Iran?
http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26...rove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/

gf0012-aust · Mar 5, 2016

An overall friendly tip to new posters

read the forum rules
check your sources

anyone trotting out material that is dated, malicious in intent and of questionable merit will have their posts removed

there is no appetite or any toleration in here for the willful political undermining of a thread.

there's no toleration for the use of clickbait threads as sources of reference

ngatimozart · Mar 5, 2016

Vertias said:
Last September, the UN published a much-anticipated UN report concluding that chemical weapons were used on a relatively large scale in the Ghouta area of Damascus on 21 August. At the time, the US, UK and France said the report vindicated their stance that the Syrian government was to blame - something Damascus denies.

bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24130181

John Kerry the incarnation of evil, went all out to blame Assad and convince everyone else to bomb Assad.

In reality it was USA supported Rebel who gassed the people.

The report does not state what you claim at all nor does the evidence suggest any other than Assads forces used those weapons. You carry a distinctive activist political agenda using misinformation and distortions to support your suppositions.

Feanor · Mar 9, 2016

Some interesting photos from et-Tel near Damascus where Russian military personnel escort humanitarian aid deliveries.

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And some more photos of Russian operations in Syria.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/4688355.html

I'll try to make a large update post tomorrow, with details on the current situation.

EDIT: Looks like the update is going to be delayed a bit, meanwhile the Lebanese Army has entered the fight against ISIS, near the Syrian border, using newly delivered Russian Grad systems. Note the Kamaz chassis, these MLRS appear to be brand new off the assembly line.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2016/03/blog-post_71.html

War Against ISIS

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