War Against ISIS

Toblerone

Banned Member
Now everyone who arrested for terrorism in the Russian Federation is called ISIS member.
Russia has also labeled airstrikes against rebels as airstrikes against ISIS. That's what I would do as well, every terrorist would be an ISIS member, every terror attack would be theirs, it's a good "brand" to use to further your goals while reducing every opposition as islamist head-choppers or their backers. Putin is my spirit animal. :D

The West should consider intervening in Iraq, then from there into Syria. But can they do a lean and mean counter-insurgency operation or is the only way the standard mobilization of epic proportions and cost? Partner building has failed, training allies has failed, can they deploy a small force to clear urban centers?

The long drawn out election process in the USA may make them very passive, too. I can't believe how long ISIS has and will be allowed to exist as a territory-holding power. Where are the good ol' times of "This will not stand!" declarations?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Russia has also labeled airstrikes against rebels as airstrikes against ISIS. That's what I would do as well, every terrorist would be an ISIS member, every terror attack would be theirs, it's a good "brand" to use to further your goals while reducing every opposition as islamist head-choppers or their backers. Putin is my spirit animal. :D

The West should consider intervening in Iraq, then from there into Syria. But can they do a lean and mean counter-insurgency operation or is the only way the standard mobilization of epic proportions and cost? Partner building has failed, training allies has failed, can they deploy a small force to clear urban centers?

The long drawn out election process in the USA may make them very passive, too. I can't believe how long ISIS has and will be allowed to exist as a territory-holding power. Where are the good ol' times of "This will not stand!" declarations?
Unfortunately it is going to take some extremely serious event for a "this will not stand" moment. After all the blood and treasure spent over the last 15 years with the outcomes that have occurred it is understandable why things are getting pretty lame.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The only source for this so far is the Russian military. Without another source I don't think it's worth commenting on further.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The only source for this so far is the Russian military. Without another source I don't think it's worth commenting on further.
More then that, they're claiming that the US is lying about Russia destroying two hospitals in Aleppo, since Russia had allegedly flown no sorties against targets in Aleppo that day. They then claim that two US A-10s did strike targets in Aleppo. They cite incidents in Afghanistan and Iraq where the US accidentally hit wrong targets, and initially denied it. It's part of the propaganda war and is a suspect statement. Unfortunately independent verification is likely to be impossible.

US launch A10 strike against Aleppo. I thought that the US were keeping well out of the Air Defense Zone set up by the Russian S-400 system. Apparently not it seems?

https://www.rt.com/news/332109-russian-jets-isis-warlords/
If this were true, US airstrikes in Syria would be practically over. I think the US keeps out of a smaller zone surrounding the S-400. Given that there aren't any targets there anyways (the rebels in the mountains mostly fall under the "moderate" label) it's not as big of a deal as it might seem.

https://img.rt.com/files/2015.11/original/565976bdc46188e0318b462b.jpg
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Russia has suggested a ceasefire starting March 1st in Syria, while the US is insisting on an immediate ceasefire accusing Russia of wanting to use the interval to mop up the rebels.

МоÑква предложила прекратить огонь в Сирии Ñ 1 марта (Satprem)

Russia claims that rebel fighters force large numbers of civilians towards the Turkish border to use them as cover for their own escape, knowing that neither Russia nor the west bomb these refugee columns.

"Сколько не припудривай..." (Ñ) - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

The UN says oil is the primary source of ISIS revenue.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÎÍ íàçâàëà îñíîâíîé èñòî÷íèê äîõîäîâ "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà"

Russia says there is a real possibility of a major war between states, in Syria, but at the same time says they don't think the US-led coalition will let Turkey launch an invasion.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ìîñêâå ñ÷èòàþò ðåàëüíîé áîëüøóþ âîéíó â Ñèðèè ñ ïðÿìûì ó÷àñòèåì ðÿäà èíîñòðàííûõ ãîñóäàðñòâ

Edrogan has called on the US to withdraw support from the Kurds.
Russia has expressed support for the US statement about backing the Kurds.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ÌÈÄ ÐÔ îäîáðèëè çàÿâëåíèå ÑØÀ î ïîääåðæêå êóðäîâ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåçèäåíò Òóðöèè ïðèçâàë ÑØÀ îòêàçàòüñÿ îò ïîääåðæêè êóðäîâ

Erdogan has threatened to open Turkish borders to Syrian refugees.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýðäîãàí ïðèãðîçèë îòêðûòü ãðàíèöû Òóðöèè ñ ÅÑ äëÿ ñèðèéñêèõ áåæåíöåâ

The Syrian Center for political studies says that 470 000 Syrians are dead, and 1.9 million are wounded, accounting for over 11% of the prewar population of Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ×èñëî æåðòâ ãðàæäàíñêîé âîéíû â Ñèðèè ïðåâûñèëî 470 òûñÿ÷

The Red Cross says 50 000 more people have left their homes in Aleppo due to the fighting.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: 50 òûñÿ÷ ÷åëîâåê ïîêèíóëè ñâîè äîìà èç-çà áîåâ â Àëåïïî, ñîîáùèëè â Êðàñíîì Êðåñòå

Russian hrian aid continues to arrive in Syria. The quantities are modest (50 tonns) but the flow seems steady.

«Два Ñамолета Ил-76 ВКС Ð*оÑÑии доÑтавили 50 тонн гуманитарной помощи в Сирию» в блоге «ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Флот» - Сделано у наÑ

The Su-34 carrying the Kh-35 cruise missile in Syria.

http://nortwolf-sam.livejournal.com/1165719.html
 

gazzzwp

Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

A Syrian ceasefire is planned within a week but statements from Russia and Assad also seem to indicate that the ceasefire will be a partial one, as the fight against "terrorism" will continue. Daesh and al-Nusra are explicitly exempt from this ceasefire, but given that they coordinate with other groups, and they're far from the only radicals involved, it's going to be hard to draw the line.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà ïåðåãîâîðàõ ïî Ñèðèè äîãîâîðèëèñü î ïðåêðàùåíèè îãíÿ â òå÷åíèå íåäåëè
Ðедельное перемирие в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

The Turks say they have struck against targets around Azaz, and warn the Kurds not to approach the city. There are also reports that a Syrian position in Latakia was shelled. The Turks say they will act the way they have acted in Iraq. Kurdish positions at the Menagh airbase in particular were hit.

Note Hezbollah fighters and T-90 tanks are north of Aleppo with SAA forces.

Meanwhile the US has called on Syria to stop the shelling of the Kurds.

ОбÑтрелы на турецко-ÑирийÑкой границе - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑтрелÑла курдов на территории Сирии - Colonel Cassad
ГоÑдеп СШРпотребовал от Турции прекратить обÑтрел ÑирийÑкой территории (dimashi)
Турки о возможных дейÑтвиÑÑ… в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

In Latakia province, the SAA has taken a number of villages, and continues to push towards Kinsibba.

North of Aleppo, the SAA has taken Kafr Naya, and the Kurds have taken the Menagh airbase. The actions appear to be coordinated as the two positions are right next to each other. I think it's safe to say that the Kurds are working with Assad to close the Azaz corridor, and they are currently 2kms from the city itself. The SAA has also pushed south out of al-Zahraa.

The SAA has also begun an offensive against Raqqa province, to retake the Tabka airbase.

Meanwhile in Deyr-ez-Zor local tribesmen have launched a serious attack against ISIS, retaking a local hospital that was being used as a base by ISIS. Reportedly Russian airstrikes were carried out in support of several other attacks by these tribesmen. The Syrian government claims these tribesmen have raised the Syrian state flag, but there is no evidence to support this claim.

In Deraa the SAA is advancing towards the Jordanian border.

Сводка военных дейÑтвий СирийÑкой армии и Ð*оÑÑийÑких ВКС 10-11 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Военное положение в Сирии 12 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (обновлено) (Туфелька)
Военные дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии 13 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)

In Abu-Kemal an ISIS HQ was attacked by unknown fighters wearing their uniforms. 22 terrorists were killed, after which the attackers hung Syrian flags and a portrait of Assad. It's believed they were from the Zulfiqar btlns, i.e. Bedouins.

Локальные боевые операции в тылу #Daesh - Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна

There is evidence that additional Russian artillery units are active in Syria, namely in Latakia province. They appear to be manning the Smerch and Grad MLRS being used there. Also a battery of Msta-B howitzers also appears to be there. Previously a battery of them had been spotted with SAA forces pushing towards Palmyra. This may or may not be the same unit.

https://citeam.org/russian-artillery-supports-assad-offensive/

And more evidence of Russian use of cluster munitions.

https://www.bellingcat.com/resource...fferences-between-ofab-250-270s-and-rbk-500s/

One of the Russian small missile ships from the Black Sea is joining the Mediterranean taskforce.

Как вам заголовок?- "Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð¿Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð»Ð° в Средиземноморье корабль Ñ ÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ð»Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸ ракетами" - Блокнот военного милитариÑта

Saudi troops and fighter jets are being deployed to Turkey. It seems to me that this means a Yemen-style intervention by the Saudis is off the table.

Саудиты переброÑили войÑка в Турцию - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
СаудовÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÐÑ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ±Ñ€Ð¾Ñила войÑка и иÑтребители на турецкую военную базу (Почтальон Печкин)

The Saudis say that if Assad doesn't retire voluntarily he will be removed by force.

СаудовÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÐÑ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð¾Ð¿ÑƒÑтила Ñиловое Ñвержение президента Сирии (SEDATUS)

Serbian munitions being used by the Syrian rebels. Likely a US "donation".

СербÑкие боеприпаÑÑ‹ у боевиков группировки Джабхат ÐнÑар Ðд-Дин в Сирии - nortwolf_sam

Yet another Russian rocket launcher, the RShG-2 shows up in Syria.

Боец "Тигров" Ñ Ð*ШГ-2 - Юрий ЛÑмин

The results of cage armor use in Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ð*езультат дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ñ€ÐµÑˆÐµÑ‚Ñ‡Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹Ñ… Ñкранов на ÑирийÑких танках Т-72
Ð*езультат дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ñ€ÐµÑˆÐµÑ‚Ñ‡Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹Ñ… Ñкранов на ÑирийÑких танках Т-72ÐÐ’ - bmpd

Assad says he intends to retake all of Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àñàä îáúÿâèë î ïëàíàõ âåðíóòü ïîä ñâîé êîíòðîëü âñþ òåððèòîðèþ Ñèðèè

Ancient ZiS-2 cannon in Syria.

Любители винтажа в Сирии, чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 5_1 - Берлога Бронемедведа

Improvised SP arty, a D-30 mounted on a Mercedes 8X8. It looks like a significant number of guns were converted

CAESAR по-ÑирийÑки - bmpd

Erdogan says Turkey's patience will expire soon, there are too many refugees.

Ð*рдоган: терпение Турции Ñкоро лопнет - беженцев из Сирии Ñлишком много (Fanatic)

Russian prime minister Medvedev warns of the danger of a global war for decades to come if the talks over Syria fail.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåäâåäåâ ïðåäóïðåäèë î âîçìîæíîñòè ãëîáàëüíîé âîéíû â ñëó÷àå ïðîâàëà ïåðåãîâîðîâ ïî Ñèðèè

Iranian UAVs used in Syria.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/01/28/syria-new-iranian-drone/

Russian BMP-1s and 2S3 arty clearly pulled from storage have arrived in Syria.

Пошли в ход ÑкладÑкие запаÑÑ‹? - Берлога Бронемедведа

Turkey has begun building sections of a concrete wall on the Syrian border.

Турецкие военные активно возводÑÑ‚ бетонные Ñтены на границе Ñ Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸ÐµÐ¹ | Военный информатор
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
The Turks say they have struck against targets around Azaz, and warn the Kurds not to approach the city. There are also reports that a Syrian position in Latakia was shelled. The Turks say they will act the way they have acted in Iraq. Kurdish positions at the Menagh airbase in particular were hit.

Note Hezbollah fighters and T-90 tanks are north of Aleppo with SAA forces.

Meanwhile the US has called on Syria to stop the shelling of the Kurds.

[...]

There is evidence that additional Russian artillery units are active in Syria, namely in Latakia province. They appear to be manning the Smerch and Grad MLRS being used there. Also a battery of Msta-B howitzers also appears to be there. Previously a battery of them had been spotted with SAA forces pushing towards Palmyra. This may or may not be the same unit.

[...]

Saudi troops and fighter jets are being deployed to Turkey. It seems to me that this means a Yemen-style intervention by the Saudis is off the table.

[,,,]

The Saudis say that if Assad doesn't retire voluntarily he will be removed by force.
[...]
Erdogan says Turkey's patience will expire soon, there are too many refugees.

[...]

Russian prime minister Medvedev warns of the danger of a global war for decades to come if the talks over Syria fail.
I must say, Turkey and the Saudis are steering down a perilous path and I'm wondering how far they are willing to go...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mini-update.

Shelling of Kurdish positions near Azaz continues but the Kurds are undeterred, and still appear to be preparing for an assault on the city. It looks like the Syrian government is perfectly happy to let the Kurds serve as a buffer between them and the Turks, with what appears to be a tacit understanding that Assad doesn't interfere in the doing of Syrian Kurds. What's even more curious is that the strongest rebel group fighting against the Kurds in the Azaz corridor is al-Nusra. Now Turkey is actively shelling across the border in support of an al-Qaeda affiliate.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ âòîðîé äåíü îáñòðåëèâàåò êóðäîâ â Ñèðèè, òå îòêàçûâàþòñÿ ñäàâàòü ïîçèöèè è ãîòîâÿòñÿ ê áîÿì

Iraqi Mi-28s in action.

Ми-28 Ирака против ИГИЛ - Берлога Бронемедведа

The small missile ship, Zeleniy Dol, passes the Bosphorus. It's quite possible it will be used to fire Kalibr missiles from the Mediterranean. Although it may also merely be there for deterrence.

ÐœÐ*К "Зеленый Дол" проходит БоÑфор 14.02.2016 - Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна

British Minister of Foreign Affairs says Putin could end the war in Syria with a phonecall. An amusing, although horrendously inaccurate statement. The giant mess of ISIS, Kurds, Alawites, and various rebel groups, from tribal militias to wanna-be jihadis, isn't just going to come together and form a coalition for liberal democracy. And the last time the west tried to get a group like to do it, the result was a failed state (Libya).

He also accused Russia of carpet bombings, and said that while Russian air strikes can force rebels to retreat, the SAA can't effectively move in and take over the areas they leave. This is true to some extent, but it's pretty clear that the SAA has been gaining ground continuously since Russia got involved.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âîéíà â Ñèðèè ìîæåò îñòàíîâèòüñÿ ïî îäíîìó çâîíêó Ïóòèíà, çàÿâèë ãëàâà ÌÈÄ Âåëèêîáðèòàíèè

EDIT: Whoops, one of the paragraphs was in the wrong spot. Fixed.
 
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PO2GRV

Member
Im more concerned about the level of involvement the US is prepared for. I still worry that Saudi and Turk plans are being underwritten with tacit or explicit US support that is not being communicated to the rest of the world. I have to believe that SA and Turkey are rational if not foolish actors and would not otherwise risk even signalling such a severe escalation

The only thing that could be worse is if Saudi Arabia and Turkey believe they have American support that doesnt exist outside of backchannel phonecalls or clandestine meetings.

As an American i have zero interest in war for, over, or even against Syria and her allies. Especially a war incited by our own "allies"
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Im more concerned about the level of involvement the US is prepared for. I still worry that Saudi and Turk plans are being underwritten with tacit or explicit US support that is not being communicated to the rest of the world. I have to believe that SA and Turkey are rational if not foolish actors and would not otherwise risk even signalling such a severe escalation

The only thing that could be worse is if Saudi Arabia and Turkey believe they have American support that doesnt exist outside of backchannel phonecalls or clandestine meetings.

As an American i have zero interest in war for, over, or even against Syria and her allies. Especially a war incited by our own "allies"
Given the recent history of US involment in the region and the "less than positive" outcomes along with the dismal performance of SA in Yemen, I find it difficult to believe the US is willing to have any part of this Turkey/SA horror show in the making. Then again, "stuff" happens!
 

gazzzwp

Member
Given the recent history of US involment in the region and the "less than positive" outcomes along with the dismal performance of SA in Yemen, I find it difficult to believe the US is willing to have any part of this Turkey/SA horror show in the making. Then again, "stuff" happens!
The whole situation does indeed have the potential for some very serious escalation.

Looking at things from the Turkey, and Saudi perspective though, they are facing a highly undesirable outcome of a Shia dominated region directly in the middle of them both. From the US perspective seeing Russia the dominant force in the region scoring a major political and military victory with increased influence in the region for a long time to come.

I personally believe that they have to do something. It would I think be in the interest of Turkey to make peace with the Kurds as quickly as possible and try and agree joint objectives.

Could it be that Saudi or Turkish planes have already entered the fray? I'm troubled by the claims and counter claims regarding the mystery A10 bombing incident. What if the planes were neither Russian or US aircraft? Just a thought. Some verbal exchanges between Russian and US military leaders has taken place on the matter:

Russian, U.S. military leaders in Twitter spat - CNNPolitics.com
 

PO2GRV

Member
The whole situation does indeed have the potential for some very serious escalation.

Looking at things from the Turkey, and Saudi perspective though, they are facing a highly undesirable outcome of a Shia dominated region directly in the middle of them both. From the US perspective seeing Russia the dominant force in the region scoring a major political and military victory with increased influence in the region for a long time to come.

I personally believe that they have to do something. It would I think be in the interest of Turkey to make peace with the Kurds as quickly as possible and try and agree joint objectives.

Could it be that Saudi or Turkish planes have already entered the fray? I'm troubled by the claims and counter claims regarding the mystery A10 bombing incident. What if the planes were neither Russian or US aircraft? Just a thought. Some verbal exchanges between Russian and US military leaders has taken place on the matter:

Russian, U.S. military leaders in Twitter spat - CNNPolitics.com
This isnt the first post youve made in this thread advocating for greater involvement on the part of the US which makes me feel that youre awfully cavalier with the blood and treasure of other countries and infact im having difficulty recalling any time n this thread that youve made similar calls on behalf of the UK. What im not doing is turning this into a Us vs Youz argument but i do ask that you clarify your statements or take greater care in making policy prescriptions with the blood of other nations

Mind you this doesnt even begin to answer the question of wherhet or not the US actually has an interests at stake in what is still a regional conflict

<pinned, more to come later>
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...I'm troubled by the claims and counter claims regarding the mystery A10 bombing incident. What if the planes were neither Russian or US aircraft?...
Independent observers reckon there were no planes at all. No raids corresponding to those alleged in the Russian statement were reported in Aleppo that day.

The Russian general was responding to an American report made on another day referring to (verified) Russian raids on at least two earlier dates, & it seems he didn't bother to read it (or have it read & translated for him) properly & check the date on which it was made. He replied as if it had been made on the day he spoke, about that day.

You really, really shouldn't take statements by Russian generals of US or allied actions seriously.

Note that the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a report which contradicted (while making no reference to) that Russian general's statement. The Foreign Ministry report was official: AFAIK the general was talking off the bat, no notes or anything.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
The regimes of Turkey and Saudi Arabia are panicking now that there is a clear light at the end of the tunnel in Syria. They are showing their true colors, hopefully even the most blind can see them for what they are. Their objectives are to crush the Kurds and prop up clearly terrorist organizations. Terrorist organizations that are the most anti-western actors *imaginable*!

Bombing the kurds' advance towards Al Nusra ... Like I've posted before, when will this appeasement to Erdogan stop? At some point, it will be too late, he may act and bring forward dire consequences. He is sitting on a big army, he has rich allies and has been emboldened by USA's anti-russia policies and the EU's concessions regarding immigration. And total lack of concern for the anti-kurdish operations that they have been conducting lately. How long will this person hold back? I have never been so disillusioned and disgusted with the USA and the european countries.

And these are the bedfellows of the USA. Turkey is a NATO member ffs. Erdogan already actively tried to force Putin's hand with the su-24 shootdown when the situation wasn't as unfavourable. What now?

I think the stance against him must change. The situation must deescalate, countries should remove their Patriot defences and some troops from Turkey, then he will be kept more in check. He doesn't and shouldn't need anti-ballistic protection.
 
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