Ukranian Crisis

LogisticsGuy said:

The most vulnerable resource in Crimea is water. The North-Crimean Canal coming from the North and subject to interdiction feeds a large agricultural area in the North-West part of Crimea.

Map of Crimea. Detailed 3D map of Crimean peninsula

Click to expand...

It's electricity for now, though that well water can run dry if not managed properly. It'll take further research to determine what resources they have at their disposal.

Ukraine is pulling S-125s out of storage, and after some modernization, handing them over to the Navy. One system so far. Most likely they will go to the coastal troops, since there's nowhere else they could go.

ВоÑÑтановление комплекÑов ПВО "С-125 Печора-2Д" на Украине - Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла

Honestly, I know they inherited buckets of newer Buk and S-300 systems, so this makes little sense. Is the state of the newer assets so bad, they're not even worth upgrading? They have to turn to stuff this old?

EDIT: Ukraine has decided on a total economic blockade of Crimea. All commercial activity with Crimea is now illegal. Which is curious, because as of right now Ukraine is still providing electricity, down one of the powerlines that they recently repaired. The decision will come into force in one month.

Personal comment, it's my understanding that the bulk of Ukrainian goods sold in Crimea post-annexation were foodstuff. After the produce blockade, initiated by Ukrainian "activists", they essentially stopped selling them. I'm not sure if this will have significant impact. Though there are still some Ukrainian businessmen who own enterprises in Crimea. I'm not sure if they will be given an opportunity to sell, or what.

http://newsru.com/world/16dec2015/overtorg.html

Also some interesting photos surfaced on the social media page of a guy working for an artillery factory, that did maintenance of vehicles of the 200th MRB, near Ukraine, last year. Note the interesting writing on the vehicle, very similar to writing typically found on rebel vehicles. The 200th MRB was one of the units that sent a btln taskforce into Ukraine during the summer of '14.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1865975.html

Wow I read the S-125 wiki page, there are a lot of upgrades for this 1960s system. But do the ukrainians really need to focus on air defence at this point? I think this is just some comfortable way to squander some funds and parade some mean-looking missiles around.

About the pics you posted, I guess one assumption is that the russians purposely gave them this look so that they look like rebel equipent, maybe captured?

I don't know any russian, maybe those words mean "plausible deniability" or "rebels with an economic cause"?

Feanor said:

Also some interesting photos surfaced on the social media page of a guy working for an artillery factory, that did maintenance of vehicles of the 200th MRB, near Ukraine, last year. Note the interesting writing on the vehicle, very similar to writing typically found on rebel vehicles. The 200th MRB was one of the units that sent a btln taskforce into Ukraine during the summer of '14.

"ÐебеÑные Ñанкции" или "За чиÑтое небо" - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Click to expand...

Cheers. Some similar photos sets have been around for some time, but not these.

The RF 200th MRB has an interesting background, including its current/former commander...

Toblerone said:

Wow I read the S-125 wiki page, there are a lot of upgrades for this 1960s system. But do the ukrainians really need to focus on air defence at this point? I think this is just some comfortable way to squander some funds and parade some mean-looking missiles around.

About the pics you posted, I guess one assumption is that the russians purposely gave them this look so that they look like rebel equipent, maybe captured?

I don't know any russian, maybe those words mean "plausible deniability" or "rebels with an economic cause"?

Click to expand...

One of them says "sky sanctions". In the later part of the war, Russian air defense was notorious for being used to shoot down Ukrainian planes. They could never prove it though.

The IMF has recently recognized Ukrainian state debt to Russia as state debt, consequently Ukraine can't (theoretically) treat it like private debt. However has promised to continue providing credit to Ukraine even if Ukraine halts payments. Which Ukraine promptly did, passing a moratorium on paying out the debt to Russia pending either international judicial action or Russian acceptance of Ukrainian repayment conditions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà îáúÿâèëà ìîðàòîðèé íà âûïëàòó äîëãà Ðîññèè

This comes at the same time as Ukraine is about to (finally) get their visa-free regime with the EU. Personally I have no idea what the EU is thinking, they'll be taking as many Ukrainian migrants as Syrian ones. But we will see how it proceeds.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà îáúÿâèëà ìîðàòîðèé íà âûïëàòó äîëãà Ðîññèè

Finally, just as an illustration, a Ukrainian UAV manufacturer has packed up all their facilities and moved to Russia, namely Sevastopol (that's in Crimea for those who don't know). Many Ukrainian factories have moved to Russia over the past two years, and more will do so, but this is military manufacturer moving to Russia (ostensibly the *enemy*). The legality of their move is questionable, but it's rather unlikely that Russia would extradite them if Ukraine demanded it.

ОдеÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ„Ð¸Ñ€Ð¼Ð° "ЮМИК ÐÑроÑпейÑ" перзжает в РоÑÑию!? - Добро пожаловать в журнал РоÑтовÑкого Орла

One of the most surprising statements made by Putin at the press-conference was admission of involvement of Russian military experts in southeast Ukraine.

“Lick Americans in a Certain Place” and Other Putin’s Quotes

Feanor said:

Finally, just as an illustration, a Ukrainian UAV manufacturer has packed up all their facilities and moved to Russia, namely Sevastopol (that's in Crimea for those who don't know). Many Ukrainian factories have moved to Russia over the past two years, and more will do so, but this is military manufacturer moving to Russia (ostensibly the *enemy*). The legality of their move is questionable, but it's rather unlikely that Russia would extradite them if Ukraine demanded it.

Click to expand...

I'm curious do you have a list of Ukranian companies which have relocated to Russia since the troubles begain?

KiwiRob said:

I'm curious do you have a list of Ukranian companies which have relocated to Russia since the troubles begain?

Click to expand...

I do not, but just before this I recall reading an article about a vegetable canning plant that moved to Russia, and earlier about a construction firm that did business in both Ukraine and Russia, and was now relocating to Russia. I'll look around and see if one of the bloggers published one, but in general it's been a trend. A military manufacturer, however, is new.

Some Informational Warfare seems to be going on:

Dokumentation über Putin - Schwere Vorwürfe gegen ZDF - Medien - Süddeutsche.de

ZDF (state run german Television) ran a bit about Putin and russian aggression in eastern Ukriane, russian media claims to have identified one of the interviewed "russian fighters" as an unemployed guy from kaliningrad who states he was payed to lie by the producer.

ZDFzeit: Machtmensch Putin - ZDF.de

This is the link to the bit, maybe you will need to go through a german proxy.
It is fairly one sided with the opening statement that Putin thinks of him self as somekind of reincarnation of Ivan the Terrible and Peter the Great that gets triggered by the weakness of Obama... oh boy this is getting horrible but I'm gonna sit through it -.-

@Feanor, do you have any more background from the russian side?

GermanHerman said:

Some Informational Warfare seems to be going on:

Dokumentation über Putin - Schwere Vorwürfe gegen ZDF - Medien - Süddeutsche.de

ZDF (state run german Television) ran a bit about Putin and russian aggression in eastern Ukriane, russian media claims to have identified one of the interviewed "russian fighters" as an unemployed guy from kaliningrad who states he was payed to lie by the producer.

ZDFzeit: Machtmensch Putin - ZDF.de

This is the link to the bit, maybe you will need to go through a german proxy.
It is fairly one sided with the opening statement that Putin thinks of him self as somekind of reincarnation of Ivan the Terrible and Peter the Great that gets triggered by the weakness of Obama... oh boy this is getting horrible but I'm gonna sit through it -.-

@Feanor, do you have any more background from the russian side?

Click to expand...

Sorry for the slow reply, was kind of busy.

This sounds rather silly, but my German is bad so I'm likely not picking up everything. What exactly are you asking?

In case anyone is interested this is a chart of proposed 2016 budgets by province, for Ukraine, in millions of dollars. The top line, separately, is the budget of Crimea under Russia, for 2016. It's very instructive comparison, when Ukraine talks about Crimeans wanting back into Ukraine. The region directly across the new border from Crimea, Kherson, has a budget of 50 mln dollars, the smallest in the country. An amazing 25 times smaller then Crimea. And yet it has ~ half the population of Crimea. The most well funded, Dnepropetrovsk region, has a million more in population, yet less then half (~42%) of the budget. 5 years of this discrepancy, and Crimea will look a lot better then the rest of Ukraine. This, more then anything else, will make re-joining Ukraine almost impossible.

Бюджет-2016 - Colonel Cassad

Feanor said:

In case anyone is interested this is a chart of proposed 2016 budgets by province, for Ukraine, in millions of dollars. The top line, separately, is the budget of Crimea under Russia, for 2016. It's very instructive comparison, when Ukraine talks about Crimeans wanting back into Ukraine. The region directly across the new border from Crimea, Kherson, has a budget of 50 mln dollars, the smallest in the country. An amazing 25 times smaller then Crimea. And yet it has ~ half the population of Crimea. The most well funded, Dnepropetrovsk region, has a million more in population, yet less then half (~42%) of the budget. 5 years of this discrepancy, and Crimea will look a lot better then the rest of Ukraine. This, more then anything else, will make re-joining Ukraine almost impossible.

Бюджет-2016 - Colonel Cassad

Click to expand...

Interesting. While Russia obviously has much greater resources than Ukraine, as well as a long history of financially propping up regions that are considered of strategic importance, do you see this funding discrepancy continue in the medium-long term, given the budgetary troubles currently facing Russia? Many of Russia's other regional governments are reportedly facing problems with revenue flow and debt serving.

Hone C said:

Interesting. While Russia obviously has much greater resources than Ukraine, as well as a long history of financially propping up regions that are considered of strategic importance, do you see this funding discrepancy continue in the medium-long term, given the budgetary troubles currently facing Russia? Many of Russia's other regional governments are reportedly facing problems with revenue flow and debt serving.

Click to expand...

I'm confident it will continue. Russia will make Crimea a priority. They already have. This is just the regional budget. This money doesn't involve the massive federal projects going on, like upgrading the electric lines, building a strategic highway called Tavrida, and other such things. They will let Omsk and Arkhangelsk rot, but they will make sure Crimea is well funded. And at the end of the day, even poorly funded Russian regions are comparable to well funded Ukrainian ones. And again, this is just the regional budget we're talking about. Overall Russia invests quite heavily in infrastructure, and urban development, and while this investment will decrease, I don't think it will stop.

Interesting and predictable, it looks like Poroshenko has been cleaning house, with the SBU slowly but surely killing off those former Maydan right-wingers who are anti-Poroshenko in their political stance. A note, previously it was noted that there was an "epidemic" of "mysterious" deaths among former Yanukovich associated figures, and the gradual expropriation of their assets. This sort of thing is fairly normal in Ukrainian politics, where changes in the ruling group result in re-division of property and power.

Про убийÑтво "ЛеÑника" - Colonel Cassad

EDIT: I'm posting this here, because I'm hoping there won't be any illusions left about the nature of Ukrainian politics, and government. It's been said (correctly) many times that Putin leans heavily towards authoritarianism, that his Russia is an oligarchy, and that he suppresses political dissent quite vigorously. The only substantive difference between the Ukrainian oligarchy and the Russian one, is that the latter plans to remain in power in the long run, while the former just tries to stuff it's pockets, before it's inevitably replaced by the next clique.

EDIT2: Of course the smarter ones re-orient their politics in tune with the times, Dmitriy Yarosh, former head of Right Sector, announced he's leaving and forming a new organization of his own. And the biggest irony is that some of the Right Sector figures being "cleaned out" are then declared to be "agents of the FSB", and the weapons found on them taken into evidence as proof of a Russian conspiracy. Those of you who've followed this thread know that Right Sector had illegally obtained and been allowed to keep weapons since before the coup d'etat.

Feanor said:

Sorry for the slow reply, was kind of busy.

This sounds rather silly, but my German is bad so I'm likely not picking up everything. What exactly are you asking?

Click to expand...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ki7jHotnwM

I think this will clear things up.

It seems as if the german state run television was caught staging parts of a Documentary about Putin that was extremely one sided. I was hoping to get an idea of the reception of this in russia.

The story I've heard is that the staged parts were from an external producer, who used a Russian reporter who 'found' a 'Russian soldier' who told a dramatic story - & later, RT or some other Russian lot claim that the 'soldier' gave them a copy of the recording of him, including sequences which showed it was staged.

It's assumed that the Russian reporter staged it & sold to both the German external producer (who may or may not have been complicit) & RT (with the extra sequences), thus getting paid twice for one lot of work. It seems unlikely that ZDF knew anything. I can't imagine 'em knowingly exposing themselves to such embarrassment.

Was this some trap that the FSB set up or what? :

If so, it's majestic!

swerve said:

The story I've heard is that the staged parts were from an external producer, who used a Russian reporter who 'found' a 'Russian soldier' who told a dramatic story - & later, RT or some other Russian lot claim that the 'soldier' gave them a copy of the recording of him, including sequences which showed it was staged.

It's assumed that the Russian reporter staged it & sold to both the German external producer (who may or may not have been complicit) & RT (with the extra sequences), thus getting paid twice for one lot of work. It seems unlikely that ZDF knew anything. I can't imagine 'em knowingly exposing themselves to such embarrassment.

Click to expand...

To work with external producers is common practice for german state run TV, I think most of their documentarys are getting made by honorary or freelance producers.

the ZDF put the alledged raw material of the interview online to show the interview was fluend and without any interference from an director:

Interview-Rohmaterial zu Putin-Doku - 1 - ZDFzeit - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek

In this interview the "russian soldier" claims that he got the idea to go to eastern ukraine from a school friend, in the documentary they say he was recruted in kaliningrad so there seem to be some kind of quality control problems at least.

What's the significance of this particular documentary? There's metric tons of material on the rebels, including Russian volunteer fighters.

This is a blog by a radio operator for the rebels. Iirc he was in the LNR forces. Obviously in Russian, so google translate away I suppose. Mokrushin also intends to publish a detailed interview with another fighter for the rebels (presumably also a Russian volunteer). When he does I can translate it if you guys want.

Бойцовый кот Мурз's Journal