Future of the French/Russian Mistral LHDs

I see the Russians playing the geopolitical game here as well. The souring of the America-Egyptian relationship has been a big loss that could have been avoided. A bit more "realpolitik" during the Arab Spring should have been used in my view.

This leaves an opening for Russia to become new best friends. A pro-Russian Egypt would be a big win for Putin.

Well, unsurprisingly Egypt have the pair.

Egypt will pay €950m (€1.2bn original 2011 contact price), which closely offsets the amount France repaid. Has also been stated that as part of the deal, France will pay for several million euros worth of re-modification work. 400 Egyptian sailors to head to St Nazarie in March 2016.

At the moment Egypt has not requested financing on the deal, but I suspect the Suadi's will provide an open credit line/ facility. Should be noted, France announced plans in June this year, large contracts to sell (€14bn) both civilian and military equipment to Saudi Arabia.

IMV, it seems Egypt is moving closer to France than Russia, with this deal concluded on top of the Rafale deal (€5bn) earlier this year.

I'd love to see the maritime strategic logic behind the Egyptian CN arguing for the purchase....

that whole location is a cluster. there are 5 regional players who all consider that they are the keystone for a middle eastern/arabic/asia minor "manifest destiny"...

They're getting 50 Ka-52Ks. And no Ka-29s. What the intend to use for transport roles from those ships remains a mystery.

Feanor said:

They're getting 50 Ka-52Ks. And no Ka-29s. What the intend to use for transport roles from those ships remains a mystery.

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Well, Egyptian AF does have some Mi-8/17. I don't know if Russians tested them on the French mistral during the visit, but if so, then EAF may not need to buy the Ka-29s

It would be interesting to see what's the response from Israel. Now there is a new potential threat of amphibious assault by Arabs.

rockitten said:

Well, Egyptian AF does have some Mi-8/17. I don't know if Russians tested them on the French mistral during the visit, but if so, then EAF may not need to buy the Ka-29s

It would be interesting to see what's the response from Israel. Now there is a new potential threat of amphibious assault by Arabs.

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Well some clarification. They're apparently getting 30 Ka-52K and 20 regular Ka-52s. As for where they will use them, Egypt is slowly getting dragged into the war against ISIS, with ISIS fighters in the Sinai. It could at least in theory operate those helos in support of Syria or Russian operations in Syria. And given Egypt's desire to be seen as a significant power in the region, those ships certainly help.

What on earth would Egypt want ships like this for? To go into Yemen again, like they did in the 1950s. Invade Kenya? The great majority of Egyptians are living on 50 dollars a month or less, and they waster a few billion on a ship they have no need for.

I guess if they were going to on sell them to the Russians, make a small commission, well that would gel, but if they were going to keep them, I find myself just going wtf.. why?

There was earlier talk that Angola might get them,,, and I told myself,, why on earth, what for? Millions of people living on a dollar a day, going to bed hungry, and an admiral says, we need to spend a billion euros on some ships so .... they can ...... cant even think of anything remotely plausible

I do wonder sometimes.

If Egypt wants to deal with insurgents in the Sinai, you would think helicopters working from a land based airfield would cost much much less

Feanor said:

Well some clarification. They're apparently getting 30 Ka-52K and 20 regular Ka-52s. As for where they will use them, Egypt is slowly getting dragged into the war against ISIS, with ISIS fighters in the Sinai. It could at least in theory operate those helos in support of Syria or Russian operations in Syria. And given Egypt's desire to be seen as a significant power in the region, those ships certainly help.

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peterAustralia said:

What on earth would Egypt want ships like this for? To go into Yemen again, like they did in the 1950s. Invade Kenya? The great majority of Egyptians are living on 50 dollars a month or less, and they waster a few billion on a ship they have no need for.

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Egypt is a complex nut. I imagine such ships will impact on Egypt becoming more expeditionary focused. While Egypt isn't super wealthy, they are doing a lot better than many others in North Africa. While the security situation isn't great, its still miles better than most of north Africa. Being able to be self sufficient in deployment is pretty powerful capability, as deploying in North Africa and relying on local facilities really starts the rot into a mission straight away because of the compromises and limitations.

It might be the start of some sort of Combined arab/north africa force. It will be interesting to see what effect they have and how they are used.

peterAustralia said:

What on earth would Egypt want ships like this for? To go into Yemen again, like they did in the 1950s. Invade Kenya? The great majority of Egyptians are living on 50 dollars a month or less, and they waster a few billion on a ship they have no need for.

I guess if they were going to on sell them to the Russians, make a small commission, well that would gel, but if they were going to keep them, I find myself just going wtf.. why?

There was earlier talk that Angola might get them,,, and I told myself,, why on earth, what for? Millions of people living on a dollar a day, going to bed hungry, and an admiral says, we need to spend a billion euros on some ships so .... they can ...... cant even think of anything remotely plausible

I do wonder sometimes.

If Egypt wants to deal with insurgents in the Sinai, you would think helicopters working from a land based airfield would cost much much less

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Don't disagree with the assessment of the life of the average Egytian

Egypt is fighting in the Sinai. With the Mistrals they can deploy KA52s from the Gulf of Aquaba or Gulf of Suez and deliver considerable firepower in this conflict. They've suffered relatively heavy losses. Sea basing will also provide a level of security as they have multiple success attacks on their bases in the Sinai

Ranger25 said:

Don't disagree with the assessment of the life of the average Egytian

Egypt is fighting in the Sinai. With the Mistrals they can deploy KA52s from the Gulf of Aquaba or Gulf of Suez and deliver considerable firepower in this conflict. They've suffered relatively heavy losses. Sea basing will also provide a level of security as they have multiple success attacks on their bases in the Sinai

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No doubt the the Mistrals will offer much improved security for helicopter operations in the Sinai but they make for pretty expensive basing considering Egypt's economy. Then again we don't know how much financial support the Saudis (and maybe the Russians) are providing.

peterAustralia said:

What on earth would Egypt want ships like this for? To go into Yemen again, like they did in the 1950s. Invade Kenya? The great majority of Egyptians are living on 50 dollars a month or less, and they waster a few billion on a ship they have no need for.

I guess if they were going to on sell them to the Russians, make a small commission, well that would gel, but if they were going to keep them, I find myself just going wtf.. why?

There was earlier talk that Angola might get them,,, and I told myself,, why on earth, what for? Millions of people living on a dollar a day, going to bed hungry, and an admiral says, we need to spend a billion euros on some ships so .... they can ...... cant even think of anything remotely plausible

I do wonder sometimes.

If Egypt wants to deal with insurgents in the Sinai, you would think helicopters working from a land based airfield would cost much much less

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If "Millions of people .., going to bed hungry" refers to Egypt, perhaps you should check the stats. The majority of Egyptians are overweight or obese - 76% of women & 65% of men in 2010, & rising fast. They're among the fattest people in the world, fatter than any Europeans. And obesity prevalence is inversely correlated with education, as in rich western countries.

I don't know the thinking of the Egyptian government, of course, but as Ranger25 says, one advantage of operating helicopters from a ship offshore, rather than a base on shore, is that it's a lot harder for insurgents to sneak up on & attack, either directly or by attacking its supply routes. And remember that Sinai has water on three sides.

BTW, Egypt's already gone back into Yemen, supporting the Saudis. One possible use for these ships is supporting the Saudi/UAE/Egyptian troops there. And it's been reported that the Saudis are putting up the money to pay for them.

Ranger25 said:

Don't disagree with the assessment of the life of the average Egytian

Egypt is fighting in the Sinai. With the Mistrals they can deploy KA52s from the Gulf of Aquaba or Gulf of Suez and deliver considerable firepower in this conflict. They've suffered relatively heavy losses. Sea basing will also provide a level of security as they have multiple success attacks on their bases in the Sinai

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Err . . . 99% of Egyptians have a TV at home, 79% have a mobile phone (& 93% have access to one, e.g. owned by a family member), over 90% of households have a fridge (usually a fridge-freezer) - & so on.

Totally agree with your second paragraph, though.

No, maybe I did not phrase it correctly, sorry about that. Going to bed hungry was a reference to Angola, not Egypt.

I read a book about an Australian ex-pat doctor that was working in remote south eastern corner of Angola, pretty humbling. Different cultures. He had to explain that he did not do surgery, this came as a suprise to the other doctors who thought all doctors do surgery, In Australia doctors tend to use medicines and surgeons do surgery

Title: band aid for a broken leg -- good read

Some of the other doctors wanted to operate on a patient who had cancer and was going to die anyway. The idea was, yes the patient would eventually die, but it would make the family and patient feel better that they were trying something. The hospital ran on a small budget, and actually did very well in terms of patient outcomes, but the people were very poor. The hospital was quite well run, but had very limited resources.

I know that recently Angola has been drilling a lot of oil and getting a lot of money, so now they are cashed up. But does that money flow through to the common people? Well the state has decreed that the amount of oil extracted, and thus the oil revenues collected are a state secret. So if the money coming in is a state secret, makes it a fraction harder to account for all the funds IMHO

In 2010 it was admitted that 32 billion dollars in oil revenue had gone missing (source human rights watch), which equates to a quarter of GDP, also the central bank could not account for 2.4 billion dollars over a 3 year period, maybe the rats ate it, or it slipped off the back of the shelf?

Transparency International rates Angola as the most corrupt nation in southern africa, even behind Zimbabwe (and that takes some doing).... sigh....

sorry for going off topic,,,, its just a thing that p***ssed me off a lot, when the guys at the top become multi millionaires, whilst the bulk of the people live on almost nothing. Sorry again for going off topic. There was an article in Janes saying that Angola might be interested in buying the Mistral ships, and I spent 15 minutes on it, and could think of a single useful thing the ships would be good for

peterAustralia said:

sorry for going off topic,,,, its just a thing that p***ssed me off a lot, when the guys at the top become multi millionaires, whilst the bulk of the people live on almost nothing. Sorry again for going off topic. There was an article in Janes saying that Angola might be interested in buying the Mistral ships, and I spent 15 minutes on it, and could think of a single useful thing the ships would be good for

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Why Is Egypt Buying Two Orphaned Mistral Class Aircraft Carriers From France?

Hints at maybe a French/Russian/Egypt/Saudi strategy for the region. Certainly a strong, safe and capable Egypt would be a good thing to have right now. Egypt had enough problems before ISIS appeared.

If Egypt had two fully loaded amphibious ships, Saudis put up the money, French and Russian advisors, equipment and technical help. You would have a very capable force capable of stamping out issues along the Mediterranean coastline.

Rather than put up with stuff flowing over its boarders it may want to go after the hive they are comming from?

StingrayOZ said:

Why Is Egypt Buying Two Orphaned Mistral Class Aircraft Carriers From France?

Hints at maybe a French/Russian/Egypt/Saudi strategy for the region. Certainly a strong, safe and capable Egypt would be a good thing to have right now. Egypt had enough problems before ISIS appeared.

If Egypt had two fully loaded amphibious ships, Saudis put up the money, French and Russian advisors, equipment and technical help. You would have a very capable force capable of stamping out issues along the Mediterranean coastline.

Rather than put up with stuff flowing over its boarders it may want to go after the hive they are comming from?

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more motivated by the fact that Russians are trying to form up their own "coalition of the willing" to support syria and deal with ISIS. the russians are more than happy to get the ME back in the fold - esp old clients. Egypt is still geo-strategically important

gf0012-aust said:

more motivated by the fact that Russians are trying to form up their own "coalition of the willing" to support syria and deal with ISIS. the russians are more than happy to get the ME back in the fold - esp old clients. Egypt is still geo-strategically important

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Egypt backing with the Russians into Syria (Assad?).

I would imagine with two ships like this and enough helicopters, You would be able to conduct regular ops as far inland as Damascus, Homs, Aleppo and of course all the coastal cities.

Russians have the equipment, the know how. The Egyptians have the man power and the ships. For the russians, they would be keen to keep the Egyptians on side, with two of these ships sitting in the Mediterranean 24/7.

The more I think about it, the more I can see the Russians finding this acceptable and the smarter this deal is. It forces good relations with Egypt/Russia, Russia has all the capability Egypt needs to operate off these. It might be more logical to think of them as very much a purple asset between nations.

Particularly when Egyptian and Russian outcomes line up.

Problem with this: while the Egyptian state loathes IS & its like, it has no love for Assad's best friends further east, & is paying for the ships with Saudi money, which probably gives the Saudis a say in how they're used.

Is a pro-Shia alliance with Russia compatible with taking the Saudi riyal? Egypt is already working with the Saudis in Yemen.

swerve said:

Problem with this: while the Egyptian state loathes IS & its like, it has no love for Assad's best friends further east, & is paying for the ships with Saudi money, which probably gives the Saudis a say in how they're used.

Is a pro-Shia alliance with Russia compatible with taking the Saudi riyal? Egypt is already working with the Saudis in Yemen.

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It's possible that Russia is trying to pry away Egypt from the Saudis, at least to some extent, potentially dangling in front of them the potential for becoming the regional power.

But who would pay for that? Is Russia promising a couple of billion dollars a year in military aid, plus economic assistance - a package of $20 billion or so over the next few years with more to come? That's the minimum necessary - as a start. It'd have to be a credible offer, with the first few billion arriving immediately. Hard currency only.

The numbers aren't plucked out of the air. They're what Egypt is already getting, or is promised, & would lose if it moved into Russia's orbit. Without aid on that scale or greater Egypt wouldn't be interested.

Feanor said:

It's possible that Russia is trying to pry away Egypt from the Saudis, at least to some extent, potentially dangling in front of them the potential for becoming the regional power.

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which will make the Iranians, Turks, Saudis, and to a lesser extent GCC pretty grumpy because its pretty transparent - and not achievable