Ukranian Crisis

Rimasta said:

What are you suggesting, that the United States is a state sponsor of Terrorism? Hate to break the news to you, but the Caucausus have been restive seen before our war of independence. What I saw from Sochi was US military assets close by and then, also, why would we want to attack an Olympic event, especially since the US typically does very well? Can you provide us with the article or source that shows the US was egging on terrorist groups? This is up there with 'sightings of US troops' in the Ukraine, baseless, and inflammatory.

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At no point did i suggest that the US is a sponsor of terrorism or "eggs" on terrorists.It seems you dont understand what you read or you are just determined to be offended.
Moving on.It seems the trucks full of rebels detroyed during the battle of Donetsk airport was friendly fire according to rferl.Interview: I Was A Separatist Fighter In Ukraine

Breaking news a Malaysian Airlines 777 has gone down on the Ukraine Russian border, I can't help wondering if this might have been shot down by accident.

http://twitter.com/Reuters/status/489787987337949184

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhUkqs9CQ0w"]Ð’ районе Снежного ополченцы Ñбили УкраинÑкиРÑамолёт 17.07.2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

KiwiRob said:

Breaking news a Malaysian Airlines 777 has gone down on the Ukraine Russian border, I can't help wondering if this might have been shot down by accident.

http://twitter.com/Reuters/status/489787987337949184

Ð’ районе Снежного ополченцы Ñбили УкраинÑкий Ñамолёт 17.07.2014 - YouTube

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Early reports suggest is was MH17 from Amsterdam with 295 aboard (280 passengers and 15 crew. Ukrainian interior ministry (Anton Gerashchenko ) suggesting it was a Buk SAM (BBC)

Truly shocking and one can't help but think this is rebel related mistake..

Will the guilty party actually own up, who ever is responsible?

EDIT; flight apparently at an altitude of 33k feet (10km approx) and crashed outside Torez (near Shakhtersk), 40 km from the Russia border.

Feanor, can you confirm anything? Thanks

nkvd said:

The tone of this report reminded me of the time when US media seemed to be cheering on terrorists to blow the Sochi games up.
Tourist Season A Washout In Annexed Crimea

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nkvd said:

At no point did i suggest that the US is a sponsor of terrorism or "eggs" on terrorists.It seems you dont understand what you read or you are just determined to be offended.
Moving on.[/url]

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Perhaps you meant the US media only? Still, I don't see much room for ambiguity. Care to elaborate, or are we "moving on" as you say?

Nick underscore said:

Early reports suggest is was MH17 from Amsterdam with 295 aboard (280 passengers and 15 crew. Ukrainian interior ministry (Anton Gerashchenko ) suggesting it was a Buk SAM (BBC)

Truly shocking and one can't help but think this is rebel related mistake..

Will the guilty party actually own up, who ever is responsible?

EDIT; flight apparently at an altitude of 33k feet (10km approx) and crashed outside Torez (near Shakhtersk), 40 km from the Russia border.

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bad news, the rebels just claimed that they shot down a ukranian transport plane in the same area as the malaysian flight. This is going to change the dynamics of the entire situation as no doubt a number of europeans were on the flight.

Edit: The US State department is also saying the AN26 that was recently shot down was fired upon from within russia

Twain said:

bad news, the rebels just claimed that they shot down a ukranian transport plane in the same area as the malaysian flight. This is going to change the dynamics of the entire situation as no doubt a number of europeans were on the flight.

Edit: The US State department is also saying the AN26 that was recently shot down was fired upon from within russia

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Donetsk Separatists rebels "claiming" they doesn't have the ability to do this and blaming Ukraine military - BBC monitoring service. (I think we know this isn't true in terms of ability)

Video from huffington post on the crash..Malaysia Crash Video? Resistance Group Claims Footage Shows Doomed Plane

Nick underscore said:

Donetsk Separatists rebels "claiming" they doesn't have the ability to do this and blaming Ukraine military - BBC monitoring service. (I think we know this isn't true in terms of ability)

Video from huffington post on the crash..Malaysia Crash Video? Resistance Group Claims Footage Shows Doomed Plane

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Shortly before reports surfaced that a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 had crashed in eastern Ukraine, a separatist leader boasted on social media that his men had shot down an aircraft.

In a post on his VKontakte page, Russia's largest social media site, separatist leader Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, wrote: "In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

Ukraine Separatist Leader Boasts Of Downing Plane

People are going to be passing the buck on this one.I predict it will be years before anyone can sort out this incident if ever.

nkvd said:

People are going to be passing the buck on this one.I predict it will be years before anyone can sort out this incident if ever.

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Disagree completely - In my view, the actual repercussions will be seen well before that.
It is being said Malaysian and Dutch Govt (earlier reports suggest 27 Dutch nationals) will seek through UN, some immediate sanctions against the separatists and other measures to address early concerns.

International condemnation against the rebels, by the majority of worlds press, will look no further than this act being under separatist responsibility.

What is Russia's move now both publicly and behind the scenes?

EDIT: Also, should mentioned that once the full passenger manifest is released, I can see other countries also becoming very vocal within the international community forums (EU & UN)

2007yellow430 said:

Irrevelant. It only takes one mistake. We shoot them down, they fire back. Too many ways for a mistake to occur.

Art

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Feanor said:

Nonsense. One accidental shootdown does not necessarily lead to war, even in much more dangerous situations. Look at shootdown of a Turkish jet by Syria, or of Syrian aircraft by Turkey. Yet still no war. If an accidental shootdown of a Russian jet does occur, it will be embarrassing to America, and certainly not helpful internationally, but it won't lead to war.

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This is what I meant. 22 Americans on board. This may just start the war. Hope not, but it might.

Update.

As you already know, a Mayalsian Air Boeing was shot down over Donbass. CAST says that the fact that the aircraft scattered over such a large area indicates that it fell apart in mid air, consistent with a shoot down.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Боинг упал
bmpd -

A Buk SAM was spotted in Snezhnoe. This is the same town hit by destructive Ukrainian airstrikes. Maybe they hope they can protect the town. It may or may not have been responsible for shooting down the airliner.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Один из "Буков" ДÐÐ* Ñтоит ÑÐµÐ¹Ñ‡Ð°Ñ Ð·Ð° магазином Фуршет в центре города Снежное

To make things more confusing, pro-rebel sources have dug up info showing that the government troops are also using Buk SAMs to control airspace over the conflict zone. RIA news backs this story.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - КаÑательно наброÑов
ИÑточник: Украина в Ñреду переброÑила в район Донецка дивизион "Буков" | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

Personal Comments: Note, a few days ago Ukrainian official sources were claiming that rebels can't shoot down a plane at 6500m, and therefore the An-26 shot down was hit by a Russian missile from the Russia side of the border. This plane was shot down at 10 000m. Also note, it's hardly a good idea to fly through a combat zone. Militaries accidentally hit civilian planes even in peace time (the same Ukraine shot down a Tu-154 years back by accident for example). So leaving conspiracy theories out of this, it was probably an accidental shoot down by either the rebels of the government troops, using a Buk SAM (since that's what they both have in the area).

Some not too reliable sources claim that the Boeing was shot down by a Ukrainian Su-25, that the black boxes have been extracted by the separatists and are being sent to Moscow, and that the plane was shot down in the air corridor used by Ukrainian aircraft to resupply their surrounded troops.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "Ð*то не Ñ!.." (Ñ)

3 rebel tanks heading out of Snezhnoe towards Saur-Mogila. Just to clarify, Snezhnoe is a rebel held town, through which rebel troops move towards Saur-Mogila, where they have cut off the supply line to maneuver element south.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvRoVnGCGRE"]17/07/14 14:45 3 танка в Ñторону Саур-Могилы г.Снежное - YouTube[/nomedia]

Government troops are trying to re-inforce their maneuver element south.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - "Втрат немає"©

Video report on the capture of Marinovka. Rebels mention dead soldiers and weapons and equipment abandoned by the government MVD troops. They show a captured (or "captured") BTR-80. Note they have not reached the Russian border yet, but they are very closet to it (1.5 kms).

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvrM0_pGq58"]Ополченцы уÑтановили контроль над Мариновкой Донецкой облаÑти - YouTube[/nomedia]

Ukrainian soldiers captured near Snezhnoe (probably captured in Marinovka). They say they were basically abandoned when friendly troops pulled back. They also say they're being treated decently, have been fed. They mention they were there against their will, and that they didn't want to fight. They want to go home.

Personal comment: I've encountered multiple accounts in the past of government troops, when captured, behaving as almost sympathetic to the rebels. Bezler in particular in one interview described many captured Ukrainian soldiers as willing to work and help out around the rebel camp, and mentioned that they basically didn't need to be kept under guard. I don't know how much stock to put in these reports, given how self-serving they sound, but they're consistent with attitudes expressed by Ukrainian conscripts both in service, and in captivity.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeIUJSeAAKU"]УкраинÑкие Ñолдаты раÑÑказали, как попали в плен к ополченцам - YouTube[/nomedia]

Rebel special unit Kal'mius claims they have performed an ambush destroying two BMPs, and killing 7 Ukrainian soldiers. The column was carrying important documents and comm gear which the rebels captured.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "КальмиуÑ" in action...

A Ukrainian Su-25 was shot down near the Russian border. Ukraine claims it was done by a Russian Su-27. Russia denies this. Eyewitnesses describe the plane being hit by a missile, but don't mention a second aircraft (either because it wasn't there, or because the missile was launched from a significant distance and eyewitnesses didn't see it).

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A (presumably) government troop column in Makeevka heading towards Donetsk.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofJhtUOdy5M"]17.07.14 Макеевка: Колонна танков в Ñторону ХарцызÑка! ÐовоÑти Украины, Донецк - YouTube[/nomedia]

Three airfields, one in Nikolaev region, and two in Odessa region, are being restored to functioning order by Ukraine. This is interesting, given how far west these bases are.

Украина в Ñрочном порÑдке возобновлÑет бывшие военные аÑродромы

A new armored medical evacuator on the BTR-70 chassis for Ukraine.

[uhttp://military-informant.com/index.php/army/6081-na-ukraine-predstavili-pervuyu-bronirovannuyu-skoruyu-na-baze-btr.html]Ðа Украине предÑтавили первую бронированную «Ñкорую» на базе БТÐ*[/url]

3 Mi-8 helos are being repaired and restored to service for the Ukrainian military.

"

Additional sanctions against Russia affecting oil, gas, and weapons exporters.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ è ÅÑ ââåëè äîïîëíèòåëüíûå ñàíêöèè ïðîòèâ Ðîññèè. Ðåàêöèÿ Ïóòèíà: "Äà ÷òî âû!"

A Russian Cossack being buried back in Russia, after being killed in the Ukrainian war.

zloy_odessit -

Thanks Feanor for your updates.. personally do you believe this is the Ukraine Govt accident or otherwise?

Manifest released so far;
154 Dutch, 27 Australians, 23 Malaysians 11 Indonesians, 6 British, 4 German, 4 Belgian, 3 Philipines and 1 Canadian with the investigation confirming the nationalities of others on board.

15 crew were all Malaysian nationals.

The US is confirming it is a shootdown and are working to determine the exact launch location now.

The United States has concluded the Malaysian airline was shot down, a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr. One radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on and track an aircraft right before the plane went down Thursday, according to the official. A second system saw a heat signature at the time the airliner was hit, the official said. The United States is analyzing the trajectory of the missile to try to learn where the attack came from.

Twain said:

The US is confirming it is a shootdown and are working to determine the exact launch location now.

The United States has concluded the Malaysian airline was shot down, a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr. One radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on and track an aircraft right before the plane went down Thursday, according to the official. A second system saw a heat signature at the time the airliner was hit, the official said. The United States is analyzing the trajectory of the missile to try to learn where the attack came from.

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I wonder how accurately they can geo-locate where the launch came from? Rebel Buk in Snezhnoe, government Buks near Donetsk, they'd need a fairly accurate picture. Honestly I don't even know who controls what at this point. Makeevka may be in rebel hands, or government hands, or neither.

Nick underscore said:

Thanks Feanor for your updates.. personally do you believe this is the Ukraine Govt accident or otherwise?

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Personally I think the rebels did it. They're far more likely to make a mistake in the first place. They've been firing on government aircraft non-stop. It was in the air corridor used by government transports. They specially relocated a Buk SAM to Snezhnoe after government airstrikes demolished a chunk of the town. And they reported the shootdown of a government An-26 a few hours before news of the airliner shootdown came through. Chances are they saw a high-altitude plane with a flight profile sort-of matching a government transport. They couldn't get a visual because of the altitude, and decided to engage, thinking it was a government transport carrying supplies to maneuver element south.

The Ukrainian military has no reason to fire on any aircraft in the sky. Their SAMs are further away. They would, hypothetically, know the Boeing is flying through there. Finally professional SAM operators, even poorly trained ones, are less likely to make a mistake.

That's my take on it.

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html

Media Statement 2 : MH17 Incident

With immediate effect, all European flights operated by Malaysia Airlines will be taking alternative routes avoiding the usual route.

Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was on a scheduled flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur went down in eastern Ukraine. Malaysia Airlines confirms that the aircraft did not make a distress call.

The usual flight route was earlier declared safe by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. International Air Transportation Association has stated that the airspace the aircraft was traversing was not subject to restrictions.

As opposed to the earlier statement, the flight was carrying a total number of 298 people – comprising 283 passengers including three infants of various nationalities and 15 crew of Malaysian nationality. Some of the nationalities of the passengers are yet to be determined.

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Feanor said:

I wonder how accurately they can geo-locate where the launch came from? Rebel Buk in Snezhnoe, government Buks near Donetsk, they'd need a fairly accurate picture. Honestly I don't even know who controls what at this point. Makeevka may be in rebel hands, or government hands, or neither.

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Probably geolocation. There's been a bunch of good open source stuff that's coming out thanks to guys like Brown Moses and guys like him.

As a side note, I see that the Malaysians have upped the number of KIA to 298. They seem to have problems with generating manifests (based off a sample size of two).

Feanor said:

I wonder how accurately they can geo-locate where the launch came from? Rebel Buk in Snezhnoe, government Buks near Donetsk, they'd need a fairly accurate picture. Honestly I don't even know who controls what at this point. Makeevka may be in rebel hands, or government hands, or neither.

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Hard to say at this point, from what I understand, the initial data is from a single satellite. I would expect more data from other sources to be added soon.

Feanor said:

Personally I think the rebels did it. They're far more likely to make a mistake in the first place. They've been firing on government aircraft non-stop. It was in the air corridor used by government transports. They specially relocated a Buk SAM to Snezhnoe after government airstrikes demolished a chunk of the town. And they reported the shootdown of a government An-26 a few hours before news of the airliner shootdown came through. Chances are they saw a high-altitude plane with a flight profile sort-of matching a government transport. They couldn't get a visual because of the altitude, and decided to engage, thinking it was a government transport carrying supplies to maneuver element south.

The Ukrainian military has no reason to fire on any aircraft in the sky. Their SAMs are further away. They would, hypothetically, know the Boeing is flying through there. Finally professional SAM operators, even poorly trained ones, are less likely to make a mistake.

That's my take on it.

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The ukrainian gov't has also relesed audio of a phone intercept where they are talking about shooting down the jet. Add in Strelkov's post about shooting down the jet and all signs are pointing at the rebels.

It will be interesting to see the European and US response, this is going to cost Russia as ultimately, the EU and the US will blame them. I can tell you right now that there will be considerable pressure from the US congress to take more direct action, most likely in the way of greater military aid and probably greater intelligence sharing.

StingrayOZ said:

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html

The usual flight route was earlier declared safe by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. International Air Transportation Association has stated that the airspace the aircraft was traversing was not subject to restrictions.

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Something tells me Ukrainian government is responsible for their airspace as well as for communicating to the International Air Transportation Association whether there are any restrictions there. If Ukraine is not responsible for this airspace, perhaps the International Air Transportation Association needed to ask the rebels instead or alert them about international flights? According to evidence available so far, if the rebels did shoot down this aircraft, they were thinking it was a Ukrainian military transport.

SolarWind said:

Something tells me Ukrainian government is responsible for their airspace as well as for communicating to the International Air Transportation Association whether there are any restrictions there. If Ukraine is not responsible for this airspace, perhaps the International Air Transportation Association needed to ask the rebels instead or alert them about international flights? According to evidence available so far, if the rebels did shoot down this aircraft, they were thinking it was a Ukrainian military transport.

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Right so assuming the rebels fired the missile its everyone's fault, especially the Ukrainians, except the people who fired the missile, unless of course it wasn't the rebels in which case it is entirely the fault of the Ukrainians? Not biased at all are we?

Volkodav said:

Right so assuming the rebels fired the missile its everyone's fault, especially the Ukrainians, except the people who fired the missile, unless of course it wasn't the rebels in which case it is entirely the fault of the Ukrainians? Not biased at all are we?

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I agree with SolarWind. Civilian aircraft have no business where people know planes are shot down. Ukrainian air traffic control should have directed aircrafts from there.

That's even assuming rebels are the ones responsible.
"infowars.com / ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-passenger-plane"

"colonelcassad.livejournal.com / 1676992.html"

"politikus.ru / events / 24618-smi-ukraina-ranee-perebazirovala-v-rayon-padeniya-malayziyskogo-boeing-divizion-bukov.html"

Don't know how reliable those sources are.