Ok, I assuming that most Russian military programs for the next 15 years was successful or close to it. Also middle east being wasteland I am assuming Russian government have a lot more money to play with than it has now. I also assuming that Russian government in general and military in particular will be more efficient then it is now. Optimistic assumption, but not unreasonable one.
If we count only economic power then Russia has no chance. While Russian economy grows much faster than any country’s in EU not to mention EU in general, difference is too great to matter.
However, keeping in mind that I do not really know a lot about modern military, the situation, in my opinion is not as clear cut as most of you believe for several reasons.
1. While it is true that EU can outproduce Russia by great margin, a very small part of that capability is directed for military production. The situation can change but it takes time. In fact it takes years, so it will not be a factor at first.
2. EU does not have strategic aviation or any notion of how to fight one. At least that’s what I head. On the other hand Russia has. Which means that Russian industry is safe (it is a lot of it east of Moscow anyway), while European is susceptible to bombardment. Missiles are expensive, but a dozen of unguided missiles are less expensive than a factory and Europe is actually small enough for something like Tu-160 to reach any weakly defended target. Especially since one can launch missiles outside SAM range.
3. In my opinion EU’s air superiority in such conflict is greatly exaggerated. Yes, EU will have great force advantage where Air force is concerned, but not great enough for absolute air superiority, which means that European fighters will not operate at will and that RAF will also be a factor. I am not even talking about Russian SAMs which are very good and will also be a factor.
4. While Russian navy is hardly prepared for any sort of major conflict, it does not really matter very much. Since fate of such war will be solved on land.
5. Russia still has huge reserve of tanks, BMPs etc. Granted they are obsolete and in many cases exist only on paper. But it is still huge. You can upgrade tank much faster than you can build a new one.
I am thinking Russians plans will be following:
Mobilize before war starts. Concentrate most of their forces (with mobilization it can be several millions), all Air force and most of SAM regiments in Belorussia against Poland. Attack first. Take out all patrolling fighter as soon as possible, preferably with SAMs. Take out all major military bases and airfields in Poland with airstrikes. Hit all military forces that are near border with missile and artillery barrages. Attack with overwhelming force. In this situation even RAF advantage over European air force will be overwhelming.
In this situation you can write of all European forces within western Poland. Russian forces do not even have to destroy them, just pound enough for them to be ineffective and destroy supply bases. Move fast to German border.
You can say that Russian force will not achieve surprise, but they don’t have too. In fact from Russian perspective it would be better if EU will concentrate as much forces as possible on Belorussian border. I doubt Europe will have enough force to stop such attack without mobilization. Besides if European army will have “They have no chance in hell to win, so they will not even try” attitude (at least judging from this forum).
It is possible to do all that within one week. In fact you can do it in three-four days if you lucky. By that time Germany would not have time to mobilize, but standing army will be ready (at least part that was not in Poland at the beginning).
The course of war will be decided by how fast Russia will be able to occupy Germany (or if Russia can occupy it completely). If Russia manage to do it. It will be able to strike any industrial node in Western Europe almost at will, which means no way Europe will be victorious. Unless Russian goal include outright conquest of all Europe, it will probably means end of the war.
As for other fronts. The best way for Russia will be to find diplomatic solutions. For example does Finland really wants to fight Russia? Especially if initial offensive in Poland is successful. I mean whoever wins in the end, it will not do Finland any good at present. Ok if Russia is losing, then yes, Finland will probably can live with some territory acquisitions, but otherwise? What could possibly be gained by constant bombardments by Russian air forces and navy, possibly even short term occupation (short only if Europe wins in the end).
To less extent same goes for Sweden and Norway.
As for Balkans, I am not sure Greece would want anything to do with this war either way. I know Serbia would prefer Russia to win. Rest of Balkans would probably fight, but they would not add to Europe a lot of forces for the first couple of months. In their place I would wait and see what happens in Germany. If Germany loses there is not point for them to fight. It is not like Russia threatens their countries. I mean purpose of this war for Russia is to have its way with Ukraine, not occupy all Europe. Does Macedonia wants to fight for Ukraine, does Bulgaria?
Even for western Europe it is not war to the end. English or French will probably be more than happy to bomb Moscow into submission so Ukrainian government can “restore order”. But have to fight at its own soil? Possibly even lose? If Germany surrenders they will probably sue for peace.
Keep in mind that I made a lot of assumptions in this scenario. And I am not really military expert, so I might be wrong. I don’t think it is completely unrealistic though. And that is exactly what I read most people think on this forum. For that matter Germany in 1930s had much less chance to win than Russia within constraints of this scenario and it almost did.
If we count only economic power then Russia has no chance. While Russian economy grows much faster than any country’s in EU not to mention EU in general, difference is too great to matter.
However, keeping in mind that I do not really know a lot about modern military, the situation, in my opinion is not as clear cut as most of you believe for several reasons.
1. While it is true that EU can outproduce Russia by great margin, a very small part of that capability is directed for military production. The situation can change but it takes time. In fact it takes years, so it will not be a factor at first.
2. EU does not have strategic aviation or any notion of how to fight one. At least that’s what I head. On the other hand Russia has. Which means that Russian industry is safe (it is a lot of it east of Moscow anyway), while European is susceptible to bombardment. Missiles are expensive, but a dozen of unguided missiles are less expensive than a factory and Europe is actually small enough for something like Tu-160 to reach any weakly defended target. Especially since one can launch missiles outside SAM range.
3. In my opinion EU’s air superiority in such conflict is greatly exaggerated. Yes, EU will have great force advantage where Air force is concerned, but not great enough for absolute air superiority, which means that European fighters will not operate at will and that RAF will also be a factor. I am not even talking about Russian SAMs which are very good and will also be a factor.
4. While Russian navy is hardly prepared for any sort of major conflict, it does not really matter very much. Since fate of such war will be solved on land.
5. Russia still has huge reserve of tanks, BMPs etc. Granted they are obsolete and in many cases exist only on paper. But it is still huge. You can upgrade tank much faster than you can build a new one.
I am thinking Russians plans will be following:
Mobilize before war starts. Concentrate most of their forces (with mobilization it can be several millions), all Air force and most of SAM regiments in Belorussia against Poland. Attack first. Take out all patrolling fighter as soon as possible, preferably with SAMs. Take out all major military bases and airfields in Poland with airstrikes. Hit all military forces that are near border with missile and artillery barrages. Attack with overwhelming force. In this situation even RAF advantage over European air force will be overwhelming.
In this situation you can write of all European forces within western Poland. Russian forces do not even have to destroy them, just pound enough for them to be ineffective and destroy supply bases. Move fast to German border.
You can say that Russian force will not achieve surprise, but they don’t have too. In fact from Russian perspective it would be better if EU will concentrate as much forces as possible on Belorussian border. I doubt Europe will have enough force to stop such attack without mobilization. Besides if European army will have “They have no chance in hell to win, so they will not even try” attitude (at least judging from this forum).
It is possible to do all that within one week. In fact you can do it in three-four days if you lucky. By that time Germany would not have time to mobilize, but standing army will be ready (at least part that was not in Poland at the beginning).
The course of war will be decided by how fast Russia will be able to occupy Germany (or if Russia can occupy it completely). If Russia manage to do it. It will be able to strike any industrial node in Western Europe almost at will, which means no way Europe will be victorious. Unless Russian goal include outright conquest of all Europe, it will probably means end of the war.
As for other fronts. The best way for Russia will be to find diplomatic solutions. For example does Finland really wants to fight Russia? Especially if initial offensive in Poland is successful. I mean whoever wins in the end, it will not do Finland any good at present. Ok if Russia is losing, then yes, Finland will probably can live with some territory acquisitions, but otherwise? What could possibly be gained by constant bombardments by Russian air forces and navy, possibly even short term occupation (short only if Europe wins in the end).
To less extent same goes for Sweden and Norway.
As for Balkans, I am not sure Greece would want anything to do with this war either way. I know Serbia would prefer Russia to win. Rest of Balkans would probably fight, but they would not add to Europe a lot of forces for the first couple of months. In their place I would wait and see what happens in Germany. If Germany loses there is not point for them to fight. It is not like Russia threatens their countries. I mean purpose of this war for Russia is to have its way with Ukraine, not occupy all Europe. Does Macedonia wants to fight for Ukraine, does Bulgaria?
Even for western Europe it is not war to the end. English or French will probably be more than happy to bomb Moscow into submission so Ukrainian government can “restore order”. But have to fight at its own soil? Possibly even lose? If Germany surrenders they will probably sue for peace.
Keep in mind that I made a lot of assumptions in this scenario. And I am not really military expert, so I might be wrong. I don’t think it is completely unrealistic though. And that is exactly what I read most people think on this forum. For that matter Germany in 1930s had much less chance to win than Russia within constraints of this scenario and it almost did.
Perfectly fits here.