World War 3

[Defcon 6]

China is building an awful lot of arms up. And they are awfully silent concerning their relations with the U.S...I think perhaps they may soon seek to invade taiwan. Even if the only purpose of doing so is simply to start a war.

Their population is out of control, they eat far more than they produce. And a lot of their population lives in poverty. Most of the money is in the state, and it goes to maintaining their military.

Taiwan is small...doesn't produce anything really. Strategically it won't give China anything of worth. So why make such a fuss over it?

 

[Snayke]

Actually, around 5-10% goto military. So I wouldn't say "most" of their budget goes to military.

 

[Defcon 6]

its a moot point. they have the largest standing army in the world. they have the largest air force. and they are buying more arms than ever before. it's very similar to the situation before the first and second world war. except the second was different in a number of ways in relation to the first world war.

5-10% is still higher than what we spend. You also have to take into account how they opress their people when those people speak out against the government.

 

[Snayke]

I thought China had the second largest air force, after the US?

The CCP have cracked down on anti-government movements for a long time. It's not something recent.

WW1 there was already a lot of tension over the Balkans between Russia and Austria-Hungary/Germany. They both wanted influence. The assassination was a trigger and it spread like crazy.

WW2, Hitler was already invading places. Just too a while for Europe to respond.

There is nothing in my mind, today, that will trigger WW3. The US commander of Pacific/Indian Ocean forces is visiting China soon on a military exchange on INVITATION. I highly doubt the CCP are ignoring their relations with the US. And even then, it doesn't mean war.

The evidence is a little lacking for WW3.

 

[webmaster]

Is this about WW 3 or China Taiwan war?

 

[Defcon 6]

I thought China had the second largest air force, after the US?

Nope.

The CCP have cracked down on anti-government movements for a long time. It's not something recent.

I didn't say it was.

WW1 there was already a lot of tension over the Balkans between Russia and Austria-Hungary/Germany. They both wanted influence. The assassination was a trigger and it spread like crazy.

Yes, and I'm saying Taiwan is just a trigger and china is thinking of pulling it.

WW2, Hitler was already invading places. Just too a while for Europe to respond.

Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. But he hadn't invaded anything before that. Austria wasn't an invasion really.

There is nothing in my mind, today, that will trigger WW3. The US commander of Pacific/Indian Ocean forces is visiting China soon on a military exchange on INVITATION. I highly doubt the CCP are ignoring their relations with the US. And even then, it doesn't mean war.

Either way I made this thread to talk about possible military strategies used if a war broke out on a world war scale.

The evidence is a little lacking for WW3.

If you say so. But then again the thread isn't about that. I want people to talk about how such a war would proceed.

 

[turin]

China is building an awful lot of arms up. And they are awfully silent concerning their relations with the U.S...I think perhaps they may soon seek to invade taiwan. Even if the only purpose of doing so is simply to start a war.

The US are building an awful lot of arms as well. Does that mean the US are seeking to start a war...well forget the question considering current world affairs...

Their population is out of control, they eat far more than they produce. And a lot of their population lives in poverty.

Actually their population is more in control than ever. A result of the birth control programs since the 70's and most likely a bigger challenge for the chinese government in the future since the average age within the population will rise drastically in the foreseeable future. As for the poverty... That might be true, however everyone has to start somewhere.

Most of the money is in the state, and it goes to maintaining their military.

No, it doesnt. Even including all the hidden funds for the military China is spending incredibly large sums for building up civilian infrastructure, energy programs etc. The US military fundings are considered the biggest in the world, China doesnt come close to that.

Taiwan is small...doesn't produce anything really. Strategically it won't give China anything of worth. So why make such a fuss over it?

Your understanding of chinese politics and more importantly history seem to be a bit limited. Taiwan is considered a part of China, thats mostly the reason why they are making such a fuss about it. As they did and still do with every other territory that is historically considered chinese. Also Taiwan isnt small by any accounts apart from geographical size. Its one of the strongest economies in Asia and would be quite a gain for the PRC in terms of technological know-how, industrial potential and trade. Today Taiwan ranks 2nd among Chinas import partners. I wouldnt call that "small".

Other than what you might think, the PRC isnt bend on world domination, at least not in terms of military force or political control. It has a very long history of being the middle kingdom solely because of its undeniable importance as an economic power and through its cultural influence. Military power is important for Beijing though and one cant complain about that considering Chinas long past suffering from foreign invaders who applied exactly that kind of power to get what they wanted.

Yes, and I'm saying Taiwan is just a trigger and china is thinking of pulling it.

And why should they do that? What could possibly be the motivation other than the PRC just being "evil"?

Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. But he hadn't invaded anything before that. Austria wasn't an invasion really.

You are forgetting the occupation of the Sudetenland in 1938, which was a clear violation of the territory of Czechoslovakia. This could very well be considered an invasion. Also the general expansion of the 3rd Reich, continiously beyond the regulations of international treaties with Germany as a subject (most importantly the Versailles Treaty), was a clear indicator of an aggressive expansionism to which the final military escalation was only the last point. But this is getting OT here...

 

[P.A.F]

This is the exact fact that pisses me off.

China is building an awful lot of arms up. And they are awfully silent concerning their relations with the U.S...I think perhaps they may soon seek to invade taiwan. Even if the only purpose of doing so is simply to start a war.

Their population is out of control, they eat far more than they produce. And a lot of their population lives in poverty. Most of the money is in the state, and it goes to maintaining their military.

Taiwan is small...doesn't produce anything really. Strategically it won't give China anything of worth. So why make such a fuss over it?

People fail to see what the US is upto. there almost blindfolded by the media. They care somewhat more about what other countries are upto up. i.e, China, Russia as if there the bad guys and the US and foes are the good guys.
If the US has the right to invade iraq unjustly then what makes u think China hasn't got the right. afterall Tiawan is rightly theres.

 

[Totoro]

To end the guesswork, in 2004 US spent 3.3 % of its gnp on the military, compared to 4.3% for china. That does not include the weapon purchase expenses often not counted in china's military budget nor does it include the dozens of billions being spent on iraq for the US. source: cia pages.

 

[driftder]

Will there really be a WW3 cos of China/Taiwan confrontation? Very likely - if it spreads out of control. So what controls are there to prevent such a scenario? The peripheral nations that lie on the edge of such a conflict - Japan, Korea, my country Singapore - ASEAN actually. As well as the nations that will get involved in such a war, but do NOT want to be involved in such a war.

It might surprise some people here but peer pressure and a unwillingness to appear as a backyard bully are some of the things that bind China not to use military force but there are limits. Peer pressure on Taiwan not to provoke China and give it a excuse to start shooting is also working as well. It's a version of village mediation between cantankerous neighbours. Only these neighbours can blow up a nuclear storm if things get out of hand.

So as long as Taiwan and China still continue to meet, squabble and air their grievances, its fine. But when they go silent, keep their thoughts walled up, then watch out.

From what I notice, China is not up there yet to confidently take on Taiwan - not until its sure that Taiwan's allies will not interfere. To take on a armed Taiwan that is alert and on guard is one thing. China probably come up with the butcher's bill it need to pay. But taking on Taiwan's allies as well will make that butcher's bill exorbitant, not to mention the economic disruption it will cause.

So till China had won its case among its neighbours, that it had a right to attack - which will lead to a bad precedent - it won't attack. Until China is certain that it can defeat Taiwan AND her allies, it won't attack. Until China is certain that it can sustain any economic, social, diplomatic and military disruption, damage and upheavals, it won't attack.

But then I could be wrong :. Who knows what tomorrow brings - as a Chinese saying goes, we live in interesting times .

 

[turin]

Indeed we do.

Actually the only thing I can imagine that might trigger an immediate chinese attack on Taiwan, would be a sudden declaration of full independence of the latter. I would not go as far as saying that such a scenario is likely. Apart from that all current indicators favor intensification of peaceful relationships between the PRC and Taiwan. This is especially important concerning economic affairs which see a growing linkage. Since economic unification usually predates political consent, I would view that as a rather good sign.

 

[ger_mark]

my scenario for ww3:

pakistan getting a new leader of their nationalistic blinded military
this would mean war against india
wich would most likely end in a nuclear battle between this two countrys
but on the other hand i dont expect any country would be stupid enough to join this war

 

[Defcon 6]

The US are building an awful lot of arms as well. Does that mean the US are seeking to start a war...well forget the question considering current world affairs...

The thread isn't about this. I even pointed it out to the last poster.

Actually their population is more in control than ever. A result of the birth control programs since the 70's and most likely a bigger challenge for the chinese government in the future since the average age within the population will rise drastically in the foreseeable future. As for the poverty... That might be true, however everyone has to start somewhere.

They eat far more than they produce. But...the thread isn't about this. Its about military strategy.

No, it doesnt. Even including all the hidden funds for the military China is spending incredibly large sums for building up civilian infrastructure, energy programs etc. The US military fundings are considered the biggest in the world, China doesnt come close to that.

This thread isn't a political discussion board.

Your understanding of chinese politics and more importantly history seem to be a bit limited. Taiwan is considered a part of China, thats mostly the reason why they are making such a fuss about it. As they did and still do with every other territory that is historically considered chinese. Also Taiwan isnt small by any accounts apart from geographical size. Its one of the strongest economies in Asia and would be quite a gain for the PRC in terms of technological know-how, industrial potential and trade. Today Taiwan ranks 2nd among Chinas import partners. I wouldnt call that "small".

Turrin, I'll be honest. You you can't even follow directions. This thread is about military strategy. You keep trying to hijack this into a political discussion. Stop or I'll report you to the admin. Its specifically says not to talk about politics by the name of this forum.

Other than what you might think, the PRC isnt bend on world domination, at least not in terms of military force or political control. It has a very long history of being the middle kingdom solely because of its undeniable importance as an economic power and through its cultural influence. Military power is important for Beijing though and one cant complain about that considering Chinas long past suffering from foreign invaders who applied exactly that kind of power to get what they wanted.

I probably like china more than you anyways. don't go there....

And why should they do that? What could possibly be the motivation other than the PRC just being "evil"?

Never said they were evil. In fact as I said, this isn't a political discussion.

You are forgetting the occupation of the Sudetenland in 1938, which was a clear violation of the territory of Czechoslovakia. This could very well be considered an invasion. Also the general expansion of the 3rd Reich, continiously beyond the regulations of international treaties with Germany as a subject (most importantly the Versailles Treaty), was a clear indicator of an aggressive expansionism to which the final military escalation was only the last point. But this is getting OT here...

It was OT within your first paragraph. This is a thread about military strategy in the fictional scenario I laid out.

 

[Defcon 6]

my scenario for ww3:

pakistan getting a new leader of their nationalistic blinded military
this would mean war against india
wich would most likely end in a nuclear battle between this two countrys
but on the other hand i dont expect any country would be stupid enough to join this war

I don't think a war between Pakistan and India would make much of a World War.

 

[turin]

This thread isnt a political discussion board.

Yes, it is. Your very first post made that extremely clear.

It was OT within your first paragraph. This is a thread about military strategy in the fictional scenario I laid out.

This forum is thought for discussing scenarios that are at least somehow in grasp with reality. Apparently you missed the hint that was given to you by the webmaster before. I tried to show that to you in a reasonable way, demonstrating that your very assumptions for this WW3-scenario are questionable, to say the very least. We are not discussing role playing game-scenarios here, but scenarios based at least in some way to real world facts.

Also you asked a question that I took the liberty to answer. Yet you are whining about OT and hijacking the thread...

 

[Defcon 6]

This is the exact fact that pisses me off.

There is no fact here.

People fail to see what the US is upto.

You just don't like the United States. So quite honestly everyone here on this forum can see what you are up to.

there almost blindfolded by the media.

This just proves you don't know anything about the country you so confidently speak of. Evidently you've never heard of the New York Times, or MSNBC or seemingly dozens of other news publications that have a liberal bent here in the states. The ONLY conservative news media is Fox News.

They care somewhat more about what other countries are upto up. i.e, China, Russia

And evidently all you care about is what the U.S is up to...your kind of sounding like a hypocrite or oxymoron here. (definition: Oxymoron; something or an ideal/idea that contradicts itself)

as if there the bad guys and the US and foes are the good guys.

There have not been any world wars since the U.S has been pestering the rest of the world.

If the US has the right to invade iraq unjustly then what makes u think China hasn't got the right. afterall Tiawan is rightly theres.

This thread isn't about politics. And Taiwan has been a free republic for quite some time now, and they don't want to be part of China. Moreoever, they have already told the U.S that they basically want the U.S to intervene if China attacks.

 

[webmaster]

Defcon, please read my reply which is on the first page of this thread.

Also, I don't know if you had chance to read this but please do read:

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=3088

Enjoy!

 

[Defcon 6]

This forum is thought for discussing scenarios that are at least somehow in grasp with reality. Apparently you missed the hint that was given to you by the webmaster before. I tried to show that to you in a reasonable way, demonstrating that your very assumptions for this WW3-scenario are questionable, to say the very least. We are not discussing role playing game-scenarios here, but scenarios based at least in some way to real world facts.

Also you asked a question that I took the liberty to answer. Yet you are whining about OT and hijacking the thread...

Okay. as to the WbMaster, I seen your post and I respect that. Although I want you to personal message me with more specifics about that. Simply talking about future weapons is not to be done? This is a defense forum, so you don't want me to raise issues on how forth coming weapon systems might effect the defense industry? Or is it something more specific than that?

And secondly, Turrin. I respect your opinion but you were not reasonable.

Your understanding of chinese politics and more importantly history seem to be a bit limited.

You don't offend someone and then claim you were being reasonable. ok? All users should be able to sue the forums with due respect. Also, I don't think the WebMaster was agreeing with you about that. (Maybe you were? You need to be more specific about what to talk about and what not to).

Several users have posted in this forum that China spends 4.5% on military. More than the U.S currently does. And the thread under this one that has to do with china buying missiles and warships ect. is also relevant. So is that a solid enough base to discuss this?

demonstrating that your very assumptions for this WW3-scenario are questionable, to say the very least. We are not discussing role playing game-scenarios here, but scenarios based at least in some way to real world facts.

I think the other thread that talks about china buying weapons in mass brings up a valid point. How would a war proceed if they took Taiwan?

Turrin. China passed a bill in their government "senate" over the summer/spring that gave their military the legal right to invade Taiwan. So Therefore I have a very large base to work with. And again, I did call this a fictional scenario. But because of that legal action they took, it is based on real world facts, therefore it does satisfy the requires laid out by you. So lets talk military strategy.

 

[P.A.F]

There is no fact here.

You just don't like the United States. So quite honestly everyone here on this forum can see what you are up to.

That ain't the fact of the matter dude. Billions of people across the world including those in the US itself fail to admire the USA's foreign policies which is why they staged demonstrations. I love the US as a place. the place and the people are great. what i don't like is the foreign policy which most people know about in this forum and elsewhere. Now would the US like it if China steped up into hawaii and built its military there and tried making it independant. NO!!!.

This just proves you don't know anything about the country you so confidently speak of. Evidently you've never heard of the New York Times, or MSNBC or seemingly dozens of other news publications that have a liberal bent here in the states. The ONLY conservative news media is Fox News.

They care somewhat more about what other countries are upto up. i.e, China, Russia

And evidently all you care about is what the U.S is up to...your kind of sounding like a hypocrite or oxymoron here. (definition: Oxymoron; something or an ideal/idea that contradicts itself)



There have not been any world wars since the U.S has been pestering the rest of the world.

I have heard off all those media groups. but surely not every single american reads the NY times. U really expect every beer belly new yorker or american watching baseball to end up reading the NY times .
I am no hypocrite. i'm just layin fair. if one has the right to do something why can't the other have the right.

There sure haven't been any wars since the US has been pestering the rest of the world. correct!!!!!. however there actions have caused countries like china to build up a larger military in order to protect itself from a threat.

This thread isn't about politics. And Taiwan has been a free republic for quite some time now, and they don't want to be part of China. Moreoever, they have already told the U.S that they basically want the U.S to intervene if China attacks.

Well theres nothing else to discuss in this thread except politics. The title says it all. It doesn't matter if Tiawan does or doesn't want to be with china. the fact is that china is prepared to get it back and at the moment the US is in no possition to attack at the moment.
Anyway if you don't wanna discuss politics then change the subject.

 

[turin]

You don't offend someone and then claim you were being reasonable. ok?

Excuse me but if you write, that all the money is in the state (true) and all this money goes to the military (not really), when you wonder what importance Taiwan has for the PRC and are simply evaluating strategic importance, when you even claim that Taiwan doesnt really produce that much, how does that sound? Well, for me it sounds exactly like your understanding of chinese politics and history really is limited. So what the heck is wrong with that? In this forum I am surely not known as being offensive to other users and I am not now.

You need to be more specific about what to talk about and what not to.

Actually you gave me the very same impression. May we review your first post in this thread? You stated some "facts" about China, you asked a specific question. You did not, however, gave any hint for what exactly you intended this thread to be about. That was actually the reason why the Webmaster asked you the respective question in this very thread.

Several users have posted in this forum that China spends 4.5% on military. More than the U.S currently does. And the thread under this one that has to do with china buying missiles and warships ect. is also relevant. So is that a solid enough base to discuss this?

Yes, it is. However there is a slight difference between relative and total numbers. The inofficial military budget of the PRC is estimated to be somewhere in the region of 100 bln US-$. Even considering PPP the USA undeniably have a considerably larger military funding in total numbers. You wonder why I brought up the US? Well, isnt it the very right of the PRC to modernise its defences? Especially considering that the overwhelming part of these forces is far from being up to date. They are even reducing their numbers in all aspects, MBT, fighters etc., in order to accomplish the objective to get a modern fighting force as desired by every country.

I think the other thread that talks about china buying weapons in mass brings up a valid point. How would a war proceed if they took Taiwan?

That depends very much on 1st: what the exact reasons for this war are, 2nd: what the reaction of the US are (see 1st) and in what manner such an operation against Taiwan would be successful. The primary objective for the PLA would be to seize Taiwan under all circumstances, if otherwise the complete independence of the island is the only possibility. Beyond that there is no sense in any chinese military operation, since it would not be in their very interest.

Turrin. China passed a bill in their government "senate" over the summer/spring that gave their military the legal right to invade Taiwan. So Therefore I have a very large base to work with. And again, I did call this a fictional scenario. But because of that legal action they took, it is based on real world facts, therefore it does satisfy the requires laid out by you. So lets talk military strategy.

Believe me, I am aware of that declaration. However you should know that this paper is very much a derelict of the past. It dates back as far as when PRC-Taiwan-relations where extremely strained (about seven years ago...chinese adminstration is quite slow sometimes). Therefore the PRC felt that their point of view needed to be implemented in means of legislation. However the bill said nothing new about PRC's course of action, it only confirmed what they where saying all the time anyways: Military action remains the very last possibility when all other ways and means of peaceful reunification efforts fail. It simply serves to increase the legal legitimation of such a course of action, thats all.
Just wanted to clarify that...so as for your scenario: it has to take into account that exactly this will happen, so Taiwan has to declare formal independence. Under these circumstances however even the character of the US-intervention remains questionable, so direct military support most likely would not happen.