Will the SCO be a threat to the west 10 to 15 years from now?
Grand Danois
Entertainer
No.
The SCO is close to the scope of its intended use, i.e. providing a political framework for keeping the West out of Central Asia and serves this purpose today. As such:
the SCO is very unlikely to expand geographically.
the SCO is extremely unlikely to increase substantially in political scope.
Russian and Chinese interests are to diverse: China doesn't care about Russian anxiety over NATO expansion and Russia doesn't care about Taiwan or protection of Chinese supply lines. Case in point: Armenia - Russian recognition ran counter to Chinese policy and interests.
China is the big brother but is happy to let Russia invest the money, political capital and manpower in controlling CA.
For now.
Russia knows this hence the CSTO.
The are competitors - thinking that Chinas and Russias only interest is to challenge the West is absurd, ignore reality and is a product of wishful thinking about challenging the West.
The SCO is close to the scope of its intended use, i.e. providing a political framework for keeping the West out of Central Asia and serves this purpose today. As such:
the SCO is very unlikely to expand geographically.
the SCO is extremely unlikely to increase substantially in political scope.
Russian and Chinese interests are to diverse: China doesn't care about Russian anxiety over NATO expansion and Russia doesn't care about Taiwan or protection of Chinese supply lines. Case in point: Armenia - Russian recognition ran counter to Chinese policy and interests.
China is the big brother but is happy to let Russia invest the money, political capital and manpower in controlling CA.
For now.
Russia knows this hence the CSTO.
The are competitors - thinking that Chinas and Russias only interest is to challenge the West is absurd, ignore reality and is a product of wishful thinking about challenging the West.
I think the word threat needs to be contextualized. You're absolutely right in that the SCO is not a threat to the west, the way the Warsaw Pact was. However the SCO can provide a framework within which the West will not have access to Central Asia. And in that sense, it certainly can be a threat, as it can limit access to gas or oil, and make Europe more heavily dependent on Russia as a transit corridor.
ReAl PrOeLiTeZ
New Member
the only threat i can see for the western forces is their own allies, western forces should really worry about holding NATO together and not some imaginable alliance to counter NATO, anxiety over nothing once again. SCO was mostly for Economy and to keep Asia central area stable and peaceful, keeping the Western economy out. China is sitting back, lettting Russia make most of the shots, but dont be fooled if pushed in the wrong way in politics and economy China will push back.
Sampanviking
Banned Member
Rather than simply view the SCO as some form of new Warsaw Pact to rival NATO, it shoudl be viewied as an emerging proto EU with a more robust security aspect. Its growth is very much of the "organic" variety (to use the cringeworthy cliche) and concentrating into areas of very genuine concern and interest to its members, trather than trying to formulate Ideological polices that will maintain little interest or adherence from the members.
This week (Friday) the SCO is holding a conference on Afghanistan in Moscow, which through its far more rounded ability to deliver security and assistance on all levels through a single organisation and attract the support of all the Regional Players, is expected to upstage the NATO gathering shortly afterwards.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 10 to 20 years time when the SCO has become a more matured organisation and the nations within it will have enjoyed up to two decades more of growth. I have no doubt it will have expanded, certiably to have included the rest of Central Asia and the many of the CSTO countries.
The interesting test will be to see if at that time, the SCO will be able to present Development and Security models, attractive and more relevent enough to tempt recent Accession nations out of the EU and into it instead?
The SCO is really a rival to the EU and should be viewed primarily in that light.
This week (Friday) the SCO is holding a conference on Afghanistan in Moscow, which through its far more rounded ability to deliver security and assistance on all levels through a single organisation and attract the support of all the Regional Players, is expected to upstage the NATO gathering shortly afterwards.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 10 to 20 years time when the SCO has become a more matured organisation and the nations within it will have enjoyed up to two decades more of growth. I have no doubt it will have expanded, certiably to have included the rest of Central Asia and the many of the CSTO countries.
The interesting test will be to see if at that time, the SCO will be able to present Development and Security models, attractive and more relevent enough to tempt recent Accession nations out of the EU and into it instead?
The SCO is really a rival to the EU and should be viewed primarily in that light.
Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
I don't think the SCO has a viable future as any sort of meaningful entity. It is certainly not a NATO/Warsaw pact or even EU. Chinese and Russian geopolitical interests are going to converge in central Asia, especially as both China and Russia "rise" as regional powers (which they both will in the next 20 years). The SCO is realistically only a vehicle to prevent conflict in central Asia, and a poor one at that.
I think that Russia has already made the choice to re-integrate the FSU within the CSTO and EEC structures, with the CIS forming a loose forum to coordinate with nations that are not yet part of the above-mentioned.
Recent CSTO developments have all been a consolidation of that organization around Russia, and a solidifying of something that was originally non-existent, into a real entity. Interestingly enough most of the FSU has turned to Russia for crisis-loans. Another sign of who is considered to be the major local player. Even Ukraine has asked for a Russian loan.
Recent CSTO developments have all been a consolidation of that organization around Russia, and a solidifying of something that was originally non-existent, into a real entity. Interestingly enough most of the FSU has turned to Russia for crisis-loans. Another sign of who is considered to be the major local player. Even Ukraine has asked for a Russian loan.