In the past; as I'm sure you're aware; units from as far away as the Vladivostok area were spotted along the Ukrainian border. I suppose the idea is to give units the experience of operating in combat.the 200th Motor-Rifles are part of the Northern Fleet.
I don't recall any from around Vladivostok. I do recall some East MD units (like the 5th Tanks from Ulan-Ude area).In the past; as I'm sure you're aware; units from as far away as the Vladivostok area were spotted along the Ukrainian border. I suppose the idea is to give units the experience of operating in combat.
This, to me appears as if it came straight out of the Russian propaganda machine. It is highly emotive and lacking any credible evidence. I would suggest that you, tequilashooter provide more reliable backing for such emotive accusations.Russia doesn't need a war. For what?
It seems to be the Ukraine and NATO that need a war for some reason. They want something, they're not getting it so they start to warn and promise some big war or whatever. In Russia there's absolutely nothing said about this. Its going to be hard convincing the poles to get involved because I take it that what happened in volyhynia and east galacia is much worse than what happened in katyn, especially seeing the ukrainian armed feeling proud throwing nazi salutes with images of Bandera for some reason. Its pretty hard to have the will to fight a country that was willing to commit the same kind of ethnic cleansing they were going to do with Crimea because of the majority of people there seem to have a Russian background.
Russia’s State Media Is Curbing Its Hostile Coverage of Ukraine - BloombergHostile Russian coverage of Ukraine has declined since early December, following a steep rise in the months before, according to a study of almost 19 million online items with Russia’s “.ru” domain name by Semantic Visions, a Prague-based data analytics company that offers risk assessment to corporations.
The pattern is almost identical to last spring. In that case, negative Russian media sentiment toward the nation’s ex-Soviet neighbor peaked shortly before the government announced in late April that it was ending another major build-up of forces.
Pentagon press secretary Kirby holds a news briefingKirby: "We have information that [Russia has] pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a "false flag" operation, an operation designed to look like an attack on them or their people -- or Russian speaking people in Ukraine -- as an excuse to go in."
How Russian is Ukraine? | The Week UKThe swift succession of occupations and battles during the Second World War also marked the loss of Ukraine’s rich multi-ethnic past, with the execution and deportation of its Jewish population, and the near eradication of the remaining Crimean Tatar population.
By 1946, only 25 million inhabitants were left in Ukraine, which opened the country to rising migration from other parts of the Soviet Union – especially from Russia. The destruction of pre-war Ukrainian society and its replacement by supporters of a Greater Russian ideology was bolstered by the 1958 language and education reform, which aimed to make Russian the second native language of all non-Russians.
By the time of Ukraine’s independence in 1991, one third of the population was made of these Russophone migrants and their descendants, especially in the industrial east and Crimea. To this day, Ukraine is home to the largest population of Russian speakers outside Russia.
In 1991, 90% of the population voted in favour of an autonomous Ukraine. Now, 30 years later, Ukraine sees itself as a postcolonial and multinational state – neither “Russian” nor “Little”. While Russian politicians continue to frame Ukraine as Russian for their own benefits, this view ignores how Ukraine has persevered in the face of forced assimilation, cultural differentiation, imperial belligerence and colonial exploitation, to become its own country.
Ukraine - People | BritannicaWhen Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union, a policy of Russian in-migration and Ukrainian out-migration was in effect, and ethnic Ukrainians’ share of the population in Ukraine declined from 77 percent in 1959 to 73 percent in 1991. But that trend reversed after the country gained independence, and, by the turn of the 21st century, ethnic Ukrainians made up more than three-fourths of the population. Russians continue to be the largest minority, though they now constitute less than one-fifth of the population. The remainder of the population includes Belarusians, Moldovans, Bulgarians, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Roma (Gypsies), and other groups. The Crimean Tatars, who were forcibly deported to Uzbekistan and other Central Asian republics in 1944, began returning to the Crimea in large numbers in 1989; by the early 21st century they constituted one of the largest non-Russian minority groups.
There's a steady stream of C-17s carrying arms and equipment into Ukraine. There's a virtual media hysteria over the possibility of Russian invasion of Ukraine, all out invasion, over the past couple of months, and there's nonstop claims of Russian troop concentrations that have yet to materialize. We see some, though significantly delayed, Russian troops movements, and we see some possible Russian moves in preparation for a possible conflict. One interpretation is that the narrative being presented in the west is fundamentally correct. Russia is de-facto threatening a full invasion of Ukraine with either regime change, or at least an establishment of a major proxy-state in the east, as a part of their ongoing negotiations with the US. But there is another possibility.Interesting analysis:
Russia’s State Media Is Curbing Its Hostile Coverage of Ukraine - Bloomberg
This could be an indication that Russia really aims at a diplomatic solution -- or it could be another example of sophisticated maskirovka from Russia...
Can they not just switch to coal for the time being? That way they can get supply from Germany or something.EDIT2: There's another significant issue. Ukraine is going to run out of gas this winter, and has no money to purchase more. They could resort to stealing gas from the pipeline which could lead to Russia tearing up the contract and halting all supplies of gas to Ukraine. Let's remember that while theoretically Ukraine purchases reversed gas from the EU, this is a virtual reverse. In other words the majority of physical gas to Ukraine still comes from Russia. This could be a trigger for the war, and the war could be a great way to distract Ukraine's public from a collapse of heating and industrial capacity.
If the Ukrainians have invested in the right power generation equipment, they can easily switch from gas to oil (takes less than an hour to switch) but they need oil contracts in place and storage space, and need to mobilise trained technicians. Poor countries usually don’t invest in contingency planning or practice fuel source switch-overs for their power plants’ gas turbines, so not sure if Ukraine has done the necessary — be it in planning or design allowance, to be dual fuel.Can they not just switch to coal for the time being? That way they can get supply from Germany or something.
Unknown. Doesn't really matter, the deliveries are taking place.Is this a gift from the UK to Ukraina or is this more a speed up procurement?
This is an interesting idea, but I do think it's unlikely. I doubt any adviser in the White House or any western govt. would agree to a plan that could risk war in Europe simply to back a Ukrainian offensive against the rebels. Western powers have little to gain in this crisis IMO, but much to lose. While the US administration is having it's share of difficulties at home (poor polling, failure of build back better etc.) I cannot imagine a scenario where they would think a crises like this could turn things around - especially after Afghanistan. The risk / reward would be far greater than any western govt would accept.There's a steady stream of C-17s carrying arms and equipment into Ukraine. There's a virtual media hysteria over the possibility of Russian invasion of Ukraine, all out invasion, over the past couple of months, and there's nonstop claims of Russian troop concentrations that have yet to materialize. We see some, though significantly delayed, Russian troops movements, and we see some possible Russian moves in preparation for a possible conflict. One interpretation is that the narrative being presented in the west is fundamentally correct. Russia is de-facto threatening a full invasion of Ukraine with either regime change, or at least an establishment of a major proxy-state in the east, as a part of their ongoing negotiations with the US. But there is another possibility.
It could be that the maskirovka is from the west. Ukraine is planning a major offensive against the rebel-held regions, and the offensive will be supported in bulk by western weapons and logistics. Any Russian attempt to stop this offensive and maintain the status quo will be misrepresented as a Russian invasion and escalation, instead of being what it is, an attempt to maintain the status quo and prevent the collapse of the rebels.