The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Seversk salient.

Russian forces have finally taken the village of Spornoe. Note they hold the hills south of it so the position likely became untenable for Ukraine. This minor success was preceded by many failed attempts. What's interesting is that Russian advances towards Viemka in this area have stopped for some time. It's unclear if Russian forces are taking an operational pause or if efforts are continuing but are unsuccessful. Footage from this area is scarce. Russian forces have captured the rest of Razdolovka, and some area north of the village.


Ukraine has managed to push Russian forces back across a relatively large area in the woods west of Kremennaya.


A Ukrainian boat on the Severskiy Donets river getting hit by a Russian loitering munition.


Russian air strikes on Seversk.


Footage of Russian Molniya loitering munitions from the Seversk area. They seem to be primarily being used here. In the second link you can take a look at the munition. It's obviously a far more primitive system then the Lancet, but it's not exactly an FPV drone.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces are now in the canal neighborhood almost along the canal line. They also have the canal line south of there in the woods. The configuration of the exact front line north of there is unclear. Russian forces also pushed north-west towards Grigorievka and Orekhovo-Vasilevka.


A Russian soldier uses a piece of debris to bridge between two balconies in a burned out buiding, canal neighborhood, and then fires into the room. It's a great illustration of the difficulties Russia faced in clearing this neighborhood.


Russian BM-21 fires a full packet of rockets at Chasov Yar. At the start of the war this was a common sight for both sides but it's getting increasingly rarer.


Russia's truck-mounted depth-bomb launcher continues to be active around Chasov Yar.


Russia's 98th Airborne raises it's flag on the western outskirts of the canal neighborhood. The area is now firmly under Russian control.


Aerial view of the ruins of canal neighborhood.


Gorlovka-Toretsk.

Russian forces are continuing to gain ground fairly rapidly here. They've broken into the mid-rises in the center of eastern suburbs, between Zaliznoe and Pivnichnoe. They're also advancing near Druzhba, and Pivnichnoe from the north. In the south Russian forces are advancing along the rail line towards the center of Novogorodskoe. While Ukrainian defenses aren't collapsing, I suspect Ukraine needs reserves to stabilize the front here, and they may not be available. There are unconfirmed reports of Bradleys active in the area, which might be an element of the 47th Mech, or possibly a new unit riding newly delivered Bradleys in the area.


There are reports that Russian forces used a tunnel to break into Ukrainian positions in this area.


Russian TOS-1 fires in Toretsk area. These systems are usually dedicated to priority areas.


Ukrainian soldier engaged in combat in the mid-rises discussed above.


Russian strike on Novogorodskoe, possibly using a FAB-3000.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ocheretino-Netaylovo area.

Russian forces have gained significant ground between the rail line and Novoselka Pervaya, enveloping the village from the north. Voskhod and Sokol villages appear to be entirely under Russian control, with Yevgenievka still in Ukrainian hands. Russian forces are also pushing towards Lozovatskoe and Vozdvizhenka west and north-west of Novoaleksandrovka and towards Progress along the rail line. In this area, like many others, the pattern is that villages are built in the gullies, and the relatively flat farmland is the high ground. While Suriyakmaps hasn't made the update post on the channel yet, their map updates show Russian forces have reached the Volchya river north of Novoselka Pervaya. At this point Russian forces appear to be almost or about half way to Selidovo from Avdeevka. For some reason Russian forces have not been pushing very hard on Karlovka, but have gained ground north of the reservoir.


Allegedly a PzH-2000 getting hit by Russian artillery west of Avdeevka. While I can't make out the type of SP howitzer, that's definitely what it is, an SP howitzer.


Russian FPV drones hitting another 3 Bradleys. Continued evidence that the 47th Mech is still committed in this area.


Another Abrams destroyed, this one near Volchye.


A Ukrainian Spartan burns west of Ocheretino.


Russian forces captured a destroyed Abrams. Note that this isn't an event in and of itself. Rather this is a consequence of Russian corces continuing their advance in this area, virtually uninterrupted since the fall of Avdeevka.


The earlier shown destroyed tank on transporter was actually not near Chasov Yar but apparently near Ocheretino where it accidentally took a wrong turn and ended up near the front line.


Russian TOS-2 operations near Avdeevka.


Mar'inka-Krasnogorovka.


Russian forces have gained some more ground in the western part of Krasnogorovka. They are slowly pushing northward towards the Ukrainian supply line for the forces holding the mid-rises in the eastern part of the town. Russian forces have also slightly expanded their foothold inside Maksimil'yanovka. I think they can't really take the village without further gains in the fields south of it, since the village is in a low ground.


Russian forces identify a Ukrainian towed artillery piece, allegedly an M777, and destroy it, south-west of Mar'inka near Il'inka.


A Russian CASEVAC team in action near Krasnogorovka. They have EW, and they're checking to ensure it's on, they also have a soldier with a shotgun for dealing with drones. The vehicle they're using is a UAZ light truck. Presumably the knocked out BMP and destroyed tank are Russian.


Novomihailovka-Ugledar area.


Russian forces have made a number of advances south of Novomihailovka. So far no assault on the village of Konstantinovka has begun but Russian forces have pushed right up to the outskirts from the south-east. This would be a logical place to strike since the road to Ugledar is closest to the edge of the village here, making it possible to shut down the road by merely taking the warehouses and a couple of streets of houses. North of Novomihailovka Ukraine's strong points are being taken out, with most of the area now under Russian control.


Russian Lancet strike hits a Strela-10 near Ugledar. Results are unclear.


Russian T-80BVM and T-90M tank fires near Ugledar.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces have taken the northern warehouses in Staromayorskoe and pushed Ukrainian forces a little ways out of the fields north of there. While this is clearly a tertiary area for Russian efforts, the efforts nonetheless continue.


Suriyakmaps corrects a section of the front near Pyatihatka, it appears to be under Ukrainian control. Unclear when this happened. Russian forces are also continuing to chip away at the Rabotino salient.


Russia gliding bomb strikes around Rabotino.


Russian TOS strikes on Velikaya Novoselka, the former Vremyevskiy bulge area.


Russian forces taking out a Kozak armored car near the former Vremyevskiy bulge.


A destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV in Urozhaynoe.


Russian T-80BV based assault shed near Staromayorskoe.


Russian assault trooper with a modified AS Val suppressed assault rifle, near Staromayorskoe. Note his motor-bike.


Another destroyed AS-90, somewhere in Zaporozhye region.


Ukraine has been repeatedly hitting the power stations of Energodar, near the Zaporozhskaya NPP. The city is often without power.


Dnepr front.

Russia strikes a Ukrainian BMP-3 near Tyavinka, Kherson region.


Russian 80th Arctic Bde hits a Ukrainian air defenses system in Kherson region. Note I can't tell what they're hitting but it's a vehicle, and the crew scatters when the loitering munition approaches.


Russian forces firing a truck mounted S-60 in the woods of Kherson region. What's interesting is that the woods, and the truck, all burned down.


Russian sources report Ukraine using incendiary munitions to set fire to the woods on the left shore of the Dnepr.


Russian Osa-AKM operations along the Dnepr.


Crimea/Black Sea.


There are reports of Russia using unmanned boats to set up sea mines off the coast of Crimea. The Russian Navy has serious problems dealing with sea mines. Soviet-era trawlers are badly outdated, and weren't cutting edge even when they were new. The newer Aleksandrit trawlers are few and far between.


A Russian Tor-M2KM previously not seen in Russian service, Crimea.


Recent satellite images reveal 25 barges plus other barriers protecting the Crimean bridge.


Strikes.

Russia hit the Dolgintsevo airfield. Ukrainian sources claimed they hit a decoy, but they appear to have hit a MiG-29 parked underneath netting, while ignoring the inconvenient Su-25 decoy.


Russia hit Ukrainian SAM positions near Odessa. The S-300 position may have been a decoy, we don't see any characteristic secondary detonations, but the other position (NASAMS? Skyguard Aspide?) appears to have been real. Some sources mislabel it as a Patriot unit but it's clearly not.


Russia hit an S-300 unit near Mirgorod using some sort of airbust munition (Tornado-S?). Note the continued SEAD strikes, and the relatively impunity Russian UAVs seem to have had recently near Ukrainian bases. I wouldn't be surprised if the two are connected. However it's still a long way to go before Russia can extend manned aircraft operations over Ukrainian lines.


Russia hit an Mi-24 at the Poltava airfield using some sort of cluster munition.


Russia hit a fuel storage facility in Poltava using Kh-59 missiles.


Russia hit another P-18, this one in Donetsk region.


Russia struck the Yuzhmash factory in Dnepropetrovsk. The facility may be involved in missile production. There are reports of Su-57s being involved in a strike on Dnepropetrovsk, it's unclear if this is the same event.


Russia hit Selidovo twice, striking a Ukrainian staging area with the vehicles with crosses, and a complex of mining buildings.


Russia hit a hangar in Nikolaev where an M270 may have been hiding. We do see it heading in that direction, followed by a fuel truck. We don't see it enter the building. Russia then hits the building. The detonations in the hangar suggest some munitions were present inside.


Russia hit two military trains in Zaporozhye, allegedly heading to Kharkov with tanks.


Russian D-30SN strike on the village of Bogatyr', west of Kurakhovo. It's possible Ukrainian logistics are moving away from Kurakhovo which is now closer to the front line then it was 6 months ago.


There are unconfirmed reports of a HIMARS exploding near Druzhkovka, possibly as a result of a drone strike. Confirmation is lacking. There are recent Russian strikes against Druzhkovka, targets unknown.


Russian bomb strike on Konstantinovka. It's the main supply hub for Ukrainian forces in Chasov Yar and Toretsk.


Ukrainian drones hit some sort of storage facility with explosive materials in Voronezh region. Unclear if munitions or not.


Ukrainian drone strike hit the Redkinskiy Testing Plant in Tver' region. It's a chemical plant that mostly works for the defense industry.


Ukraine hit some sort of industrial enterprise in Volnovakha with a HIMARS. The fact that the enterprise isn't listed, makes me wonder if it's somehow defense related.


Ukrainian UAV strike in Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Two UAVs landed, one hit a substation, the other a residential building killing 1 civilian.


During a recent Ukrainian strike in Rostov region, a Russian Mi-28N landedin a field, causing a grass fire. Speculations abound about the landing, perhapds it was rebasing to escape the strike, perhaps it made a landing to avoid friendly fire. Perhaps it sustained damage from colliding with a Ukrainian UAV. No word on the fate of the aircraft.


Russian governor of Kursk region warned people to expect potential power outages. I suspect this is related to Ukrainian strikes.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other bits.

A Ukrainian Buk had a missile failure. Allegedly the missile is one that failed due to being put together out of two other missiles.


Russian forces firing out of a burned out Grad truck. Apparently a Ukrainian FPV drone burned the truck right before it was ready to fire, but the munitions somehow didn't cook off. This is obviously a risky exercise.


A Ukrainian drone strike took out a Russian BM-21 decoy. Note the haphazard nature of the decoy, compared to standard manufactured decoys we so often see from Ukraine.


A Russian MT-LB survived a Ukrainian drone strike due to the cage armor. The commentator calls the cage armor improvised, but it looks like a factory-kit, possibly sections of a BTR-82 up-armor kit.


Footage of a rare Russian S-350 near Donetsk. Note the Pantsyr being used to provide SHORAD to it.


Ukrainian forces are reportedly concentrating near the Belorussian border. Since it's very unlikely Ukraine will invade Belarus, presumably they fear the opposite, Russian troops entering from Belarus.


Russian Mi-28NM with the new nose, and the Vikhr-1 ATGM, but without the radar. It appears production of the type is going ahead in this format.


Russian forces receiving a new batch of motorcycles and sidecars.


A Russian Su-30SM2 with 6 R-77s. We've seen these jets more active lately. The SM2 variant specifically may or may not carry a new radar. Originally it was supposed to carry the Irbis, but it's not clear if this ever happened, with the initial consensus seemingly that it didn't. Russia has been using R-77s to engage Ukrainian drones recently.


DPRK Grad rockets and 130mm shells in Russian service. Despite the claims about massive quantities of such munitions provided footage is relatively scarce.


Russian soldiers installing K-5 tiles on the turret of a "naked" T-72A. Russia currently has no standard program for T-72A upgrades. It's also an awkward situation where the upgrades are being done based on what enterprise is doing it. We also have another T-72A with no ERA, just cage armor.


Russian T-62M with roof cage and ERA somewhere on the front lines. Their value isn't 0, but they're far less survivable then the T-72B3s and T-80BVMs Russia entered the war with.


An interesting look at a Ukrainian IRIS-T, that apparently shot down quite a few Shahed drones. Note this is probably not good use of expensive and scarce SAMs.


A rare look at a Ukrainian HAWK SAM.


Ukraine has developed an armored cabin for the Toyota Landcruiser 70. Note while such erzats vehicles are a poor substitute for proper light armor, they're much better then unarmored transports.


Ukrainian M113 upgunned with a ZU-23-2.


British Ferret Mk 1 in Ukrainian service.


Ukrainian PT-91 with extra cages.


Ex-Belgian AIFV-B-C25 in Ukrainian service. While no Bradley, it's much better then the BMP-1 that most Ukrainian units have been using as their main IFV.


A rare Ukrainian BTR-70 with Parus module. Pre-war BTR-70s were quite common in Ukrainian service. The unit with them is the so called Russian Legion.


Ukrainian infantry with a Soviet BM-37 mortar, a pre-WWII system, allegedly sourced from Poland.


A Lewis (shouldn't it be Louis?) machinegun in Ukrainian service. This weapon is from 1911, but remained in production until 1942.


Indian artillery shells continue to show up in Ukraine.


Ukrainian forces operating the LAND-LGR4 missile system.


Ukraine's 150th Mech Bde training with T-64BV mod'17s.


Reportedly Ukrainian National Guard has received a batch of Novator-2 armored cars with EW stations.


It appears Finland has handed over 8 Watercat M11 boats to Ukraine, some of which are in the Black Sea and some are on the Dnepr.


Estonia has reportedly handed over with Mistral-3 SHORAD SAMs to Ukraine. Note these are essentially MANPADS on a truck chassis not dissimilar to an Avenger or a Strela-10.


Ukrainian service members undergoing training in France, with French kit. Currently Ukraine typically doesn't use FAMAS rifles, which may indicate they intend to start.


Ukraine will reportedly get another 10 AS-90 SP howitzers as part of the latest aid package approved by the UK. They will also get 50 small boats, 40 mineclearing vehicles (of what type?), and 61 bulldozers.


Germany has reportedly handed over their 3rd Patriot battery to Ukraine.


A Chinese Y-20A landed in Moscow. Previously the pattern of Iranian transports landing followed by Iranian weapons showing up suggests that China may be delivering something.


Russia and Ukraine had another prisoner exchange, this one 75 for 75.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This website claims a drone strike on a Russian ammunition storage caused the largest explosion in this war, there are obviously other websites covering different strikes inside Russia including sabotage on the Trans Siberian railways to derail imported supplies
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
This website claims a drone strike on a Russian ammunition storage caused the largest explosion in this war, there are obviously other websites covering different strikes inside Russia including sabotage on the Trans Siberian railways to derail imported supplies
The largest in my memory was when the Russians hit the ammunition storage in Ukraine, which led to some “online experts” to suggest that the Russians dropped a nuke on Ukraine. I have no idea how to find it and am even afraid to suggest the approximate timing and be completely off. It was a long while ago now, but fairly certain it was over a year ago. I am also struggling to remember where exactly it was. Looked through some of the links I have saved, but found nothing. Surely it was mentioned here at the time. From memory, this one cannot compete with the one I am talking about in terms of the size of explosion. I will see if I can dig this one out.

Russia hit Ukrainian SAM positions near Odessa. The S-300 position may have been a decoy, we don't see any characteristic secondary detonations, but the other position (NASAMS? Skyguard Aspide?) appears to have been real. Some sources mislabel it as a Patriot unit but it's clearly not.

I am not sure that this refers to the same event (has to though), but Oleshchuk reported that Russia hit two Patriot decoys. He also reported that Russia hit plane decoys on Wednesday (the event at Mirhorod discussed on the previous page) and thanked everyone for producing/supplying “quality decoy planes and air defence systems”.


I am assuming whatever was hit was real enough to be worth the official “decoy statement”.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
There was this open letter signed by various (truly quite a mix of) individuals ahead of the upcoming NATO summit. The most interesting part is, perhaps, the mix of individuals who signed it. From a quick glance, I see staunch supporters of Ukraine, as well as those that I would place under the “Russian propaganda” umbrella. A few realists as well. Being familiar with work of some of the individuals, I would also suggest that there is definitely some wording they disagree with, some strongly so, no doubt. But anyway, here is the letter:

 

sdin

New Member
The largest in my memory was when the Russians hit the ammunition storage in Ukraine, which led to some “online experts” to suggest that the Russians dropped a nuke on Ukraine. I have no idea how to find it and am even afraid to suggest the approximate timing and be completely off. It was a long while ago now, but fairly certain it was over a year ago. I am also struggling to remember where exactly it was. Looked through some of the links I have saved, but found nothing. Surely it was mentioned here at the time. From memory, this one cannot compete with the one I am talking about in terms of the size of explosion. I will see if I can dig this one out.


I am not sure that this refers to the same event (has to though), but Oleshchuk reported that Russia hit two Patriot decoys. He also reported that Russia hit plane decoys on Wednesday (the event at Mirhorod discussed on the previous page) and thanked everyone for producing/supplying “quality decoy planes and air defence systems”.


I am assuming whatever was hit was real enough to be worth the official “decoy statement”.
Looking at the numbers of strikes in Ukraine lately.... its seem that Ukraine is short of 'decoys'
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
Ukraine reported intercepting 11 out of 13 allegedly fired X-101 missiles.


This video shows at least 6 of them landing as intended, I suppose:


Another one hit the hospital that is roughly 1.3 km away from the Artem plant.



Kind of hard to declare it as simply missing the target, assuming it was meant to land where the rest of them landed. The reported accuracy/error of these missiles is 6 to 20 meters, depending on source. Here is one that mentions both:


At the same time, intentionally striking a children’s hospital is not only nuts, but also completely useless and counterproductive, so it doesn’t seem plausible. Blame Kiev? Kind of dumb. Yet, has there been a NATO summit yet that involved Ukraine and there was no devastating loss of civilian lives a day or a few prior? I don’t believe so.

Anyway, Kiev is supposed to be the most protected place in Ukraine and the main government buildings, including Rada, Mariinsky (Presidential) Palace, etc are not really that much further from the plant that got at least 6 missiles landed into it. What happened to the air defense?

A very short description of the Artem plant (Kiev city guide is the source):



Poland is talking about basically intercepting the Russian missiles over the Ukrainian landmass, but is not willing to do so without the NATO’s backing (an announcement incoming?):


 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine reported intercepting 11 out of 13 allegedly fired X-101 missiles.


This video shows at least 6 of them landing as intended, I suppose:


Another one hit the hospital that is roughly 1.3 km away from the Artem plant.



Kind of hard to declare it as simply missing the target, assuming it was meant to land where the rest of them landed. The reported accuracy/error of these missiles is 6 to 20 meters, depending on source. Here is one that mentions both:


At the same time, intentionally striking a children’s hospital is not only nuts, but also completely useless and counterproductive, so it doesn’t seem plausible. Blame Kiev? Kind of dumb. Yet, has there been a NATO summit yet that involved Ukraine and there was no devastating loss of civilian lives a day or a few prior? I don’t believe so.

Anyway, Kiev is supposed to be the most protected place in Ukraine and the main government buildings, including Rada, Mariinsky (Presidential) Palace, etc are not really that much further from the plant that got at least 6 missiles landed into it. What happened to the air defense?

A very short description of the Artem plant (Kiev city guide is the source):



Poland is talking about basically intercepting the Russian missiles over the Ukrainian landmass, but is not willing to do so without the NATO’s backing (an announcement incoming?):


There seems to be some speculation that a Ukrainian SAM may have hit the hospital in question. The damage doesn't look as significant as a typical Kh-101 or 555 would cause, but it hard to tell, and we only have photos (at least that I have seen) from one angle. We might have to just wait and see what comes out of this.
 

Redshift

Active Member
There seems to be some speculation that a Ukrainian SAM may have hit the hospital in question. The damage doesn't look as significant as a typical Kh-101 or 555 would cause, but it hard to tell, and we only have photos (at least that I have seen) from one angle. We might have to just wait and see what comes out of this.
If this is true, it is still Russia's fault for launching a ballistic missile attack on a city.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Letter to NATO said:
If Ukraine
were to join NATO, Russia would have reason to doubt the credibility of NATO’s
security guarantee — and would gain an opportunity to test and potentially rupture the
alliance. The result could be a direct NATO-Russia war or the unraveling of NATO itself.
This argument is ridiculous because it can be applied to any other member.
Russia, or anypone else didn't doubt the credibility of NATO when Poland, Romania and the Baltic States joined it. Instead these countries have never been invaded again.
If NATO welcome a new member, they will do so only if they are confident that they have the means to defend this country in case it would be attacked. If they could do it with Turkey, they can do it with Ukraine.

Note that Turkey would not be able to take a neutral stance if Ukraine is re-invaded while in NATO. Nor could Hungary. All NATO members would have to commit themselves to the long term defence of Ukraine.

Given the fact that NATO is sending unprecedented amount of military aid to Ukraine, and that this aid enabled the Ukrainians to stop the Russian Army, while it's not even yet in NATO shows that they will be serious the next time.

NATO membership is not planned before several years. Some people are talking about ten years. The same time lapse will likely apply for EU membership.

Letter to NATO said:
The closer NATO comes to promising that
Ukraine will join the alliance once the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to
keep fighting the war and killing Ukrainians so as to forestall Ukraine’s integration into
NATO. ....
The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into
NATO. Moving Ukraine toward membership in the alliance could make the problem
worse, turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two
leading nuclear powers and playing into Vladimir Putin’s narrative that he is fighting the
West in Ukraine rather than the people of Ukraine.
This is a more serious argument. But it forgets one thing: Putin doesn't need NATO's decision on Ukraine. He would invade and attack it endlessly no matter what is decided with NATO. Because the NATO argument is BS. The presence of Ukraine inside NATO shouldn't be a problem for Russia or Vladimir Putin. As long as Russia doesn't attack a NATO country, NATO is not a threat to Russia.
Putin also claim that he is doing war against Ukraine because it's ruled by Nazy. It's obvious that he does it for other reasons.
Thinking that Putin may be easier to negotiate if we promise that Ukraine won't join NATO is extremely naive.

We should understand that what is at stake is not a neutral Ukraine, not a buffer zone, not a passage between Russia and the West... no. The stake is Ukraine fully in the Western World, inside the EU and inside NATO or Ukraine fully inside the Russia Federation or the Commonwealth of Independent States, with the same statu as Belarussia. And probably one part in the West, the other in Russia with an Iron Curtain separating them.

________________________

KipPotapych said:
Poland is talking about basically intercepting the Russian missiles over the Ukrainian landmass, but is not willing to do so without the NATO’s backing (an announcement incoming?)
Not because they are not willing but because they can't, legally.
Patriot systems in Poland belong to the US. They have to at least have the green light from the US to move them closer to the Ukrainian border.
Poland would also ask additional Patriot units to keep up the protection of the sites currently protected.

________________________

Summary from what I heard on tv/youtube when I was not here (sorry. No link but feel free to comment):
- Russia is still making gains slowly, on the Toretsk, Chadiv Yar, Pokrovsk directions (North west of Donsetk in general).

- Russian casualties are still very high.

- Ukraine has less problem with the number of new soldiers moving to the frontline. No more detail. They just say the problem with finding new recruits os less critical than a few weeks ago.

-Around 20 F16 pilots are about to finish their training, for 60 planes available. It means that if a pilot ejects and is rescued by the Ukrainians, he will be able to fly another F16 easily. Some F16's could be stationed outside Ukraine and move into Ukraine only when needed (or when a pilot is avalable).
Norway announced they will give 16 F16's. Not sure if they are already included in the total. The total range from 60 to 100. No exact number has been published.

- The decision by France to send Mirage 2000's was taken a long time ago and was kept secret. Unlike the German who publish a detailed description of everything they send to Ukraine, France is much more cautious about making these informations public.

- Germany has or is in the process of sending 55000 155mm shells. This is a quite large batch.

- Orban paid a visit to Zelensky, then to Putin, then to Xi.
With no result.

- French parliamentary elections resulted in a win for the left (The New Popular Front coalition), the center-right and center-left coalition in second place, and the nationalist (RN) third. Concretely for Ukraine, it means that the next government will still be pro-Ukraine and the current policy will likely continue.
The Ukrainoskeptic RN made gains bu not enough to rule. With the RN, arm supplies would have been reduced albeit not completely, and SCALP (and perhaps Mirage 2000) would not be supplied anymore.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This argument is ridiculous because it can be applied to any other member.
Russia, or anypone else didn't doubt the credibility of NATO when Poland, Romania and the Baltic States joined it. Instead these countries have never been invaded again.
If NATO welcome a new member, they will do so only if they are confident that they have the means to defend this country in case it would be attacked. If they could do it with Turkey, they can do it with Ukraine.

Note that Turkey would not be able to take a neutral stance if Ukraine is re-invaded while in NATO. Nor could Hungary. All NATO memebr would have to commit themselves to the long term defense of Ukraine.

Given the fact that NATO is sending unprecedented amount of military aid to Ukraine, and that this aid enbled the Ukrainians to stop the Russian Army, while it's not even yet in NATO shows that they will be serious the next time.

NATO membership is not planned before several years. Some people are talking about ten year. The same time lapse may apply for EU membership.
This strongly depends on what Ukraine joining NATO looks like. For example, let's say Ukraine signs the deal Putin recently signaled (however unrealistic that is, for argument's sake let's say). Russia walks away with 5 annexed provinces, and a permanently hostile Ukraine. Then Ukraine would certainly be able to join NATO as any other member, and with no real issue. But let's say the war doesn't end and Ukraine joins NATO. Now what? NATO fully enters the war and a game of nuclear chicken ensues? Seems even more unrealistic. Presumably the scenario where NATO's credibility is questionable is the third option. Ukraine and Russia freeze the conflict along some sort of lines, but Ukraine doesn't give up claiming certain territories as theirs and Russia continues to claim (however futile that may be) that the rest of Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Donetsk region need to be handed over. Now let's say that the fighting doesn't really fully stop either. Instead we have a Minsk 3.0 situation*. At what point does NATO step in? When Turkey shot down a Russian jet for an alleged violation of airspace lasting 17 seconds, NATO stated they would not back Turkey if they get themselves into a war with Russia. Would NATO back Ukraine if they triggered some sort of escalation along the semi-frozen front line? This would be the scenario where credibility might be an issue. Obviously there's an unspoken option 4, Ukraine just wins and Russia pulls out completely, but in that scenario the question becomes moot. A completely defeated Russia would be able to do no more then make ineffectual noises about Ukrainian NATO membership.

*At this point both sides have said they don't want another Minsk Accord. So that would settle it, no frozen conflict... right? Well no, not necessarily. Sometimes the thing neither side wants is what ends up being a compromise outcome. It would be a very bad result in my opinion, but I don't think we can rule it out completely.

This is a more serious argument. But it forgets one thing: Putin doesn't need NATO's decision on Ukraine. He would invade and attack it endlessly no matter what is decided with NATO. Because the NATO argument is not valid. The presence of Ukraine inside NATO shouldn't be a problem for Russia or Vladimir Putin. As long as Russia doesn't attack a NATO country, NATO is not a threat to Russia.
Putin also claim that he is doing war against Ukraine because it's ruled by Nazy. It's obvious that he does it for other reason.
Thinking that Putin may be easier to negotiate if we promise that Ukraine won;t join NATO is extremely naive.
I don't think that Putin will be easier to negotiate with if Ukraine's neutrality is guaranteed. But what if Putin simply won't sign any deal that doesn't involve Ukrainian neutrality (meaning no NATO membership)? I suppose Ukraine could just keep fighting but the truth is that Ukraine is suffering far worse from this then Russia, and Ukraine is continuing to lose population. There is a breaking point and the past ~2.5 years suggest to me that the breaking point is closer for Ukraine then it is for Russia. Fighting all the way to the breaking point because you won't sign any deal that doesn't leave an open road to NATO membership for Ukraine might produce an outcome far worse then a neutral Ukraine with separate bilateral security guarantees from NATO that could in principle be just as binding as Article 5.

We should understand that what is at stake is not a neutral Ukraine, not a buffer zone, not a passage between Russia and the West... no. The stake is Ukraine fully in the Western World, inside the EU and inside NATO or Ukraine fully inside the Russia Federation or the Commonwealth of Independent States, with the same statu as Belarussia. And probably one part in the West, the other in Russia with an Iron Curtain separating them.
Ukraine's ability to be part of the "Western World" (whatever that will even look like in the turbulent times to come) is in large predicated on their willingness and ability to conduct some serious internal reforms. Without that Ukraine will remain a thoroughly corrupt authoritarian oligarchy. I've always thought that the smartest reaction Russia could have made to the Euromaidan was no reaction at all. Let the color revolution happen. It would simply defeat itself. Then no war, no sanctions, continuing deepening ties with the EU and other developed countries (other then the US) and next to that a border-line failed post-Soviet state bleeding population and industry that keeps prattling on about NATO membership even though friendly Germany and France will simply block their aspirations to join. If the war ends, there is a solid chance that Ukraine will go back to the pattern of dysfunction that it had pre-'14. In the post-Maidan era people have often blamed it on Yanukovich but this is fundamentally false. The problems run much deeper then that, and losing a significant chunk of population, territory, and economic assets, hasn't done anything to fix those problems.

The evidence seems to point conclusively to it being a Kh-101 in this article Russian Missile Identified in Kyiv Children’s Hospital Attack - bellingcat





Kh-101 on the left or an AIM-120 on the right?
I think this settles it. Bellingcat did good work there, and I don't see any reason to question the evidence provided. Which leaves open some interesting other questions. Why did it hit the hospital? Was that the intended target? Did the missile malfunction? Was it EW that caused this or possibly even damage from a SAM?
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member

The estimated CEP of the KH-101 is 10m.

Russia meant to hit the hospital. Given history, why would we doubt this ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

The estimated CEP of the KH-101 is 10m.

Russia meant to hit the hospital. Given history, why would we doubt this ?
Assuming no EW, malfunction, or damage from air defenses, sure. However exactly one missile went to the hospital, every other Kh-101 hit the Artem plant (to the best of my knowledge). It would be a strange way to operate, unless the intent was to do some damage to the hospital but in a way that's hard to attribute intent to.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Not because they are not willing but because they can't, legally.
Patriot systems in Poland belong to the US. They have to at least have the green light from the US to move them closer to the Ukrainian border.
Poland bought two Patriot batteries in 2018. The first was delivered in 2022, & the second in 2023. So Poland has two batteries, each with eight launchers, that are Polish property. They were supposed to be fully operational by the beginning of this year. Until then, Germany deployed some of the Patriots it owns in Poland.

Last I heard it was planning to buy six more batteries, with 48 launchers. Poland's paid billions of dollars for its Patriots.

Standard US terms for arms sales prohibit their transfer to another country without US permission (so European gifts of Patriots to Ukraine need US consent), but under standard terms there's no requirement to even notify the USA that the weapons are being moved within the buyers territory AFAIK. Imagine the bureaucracy if every time a ship with US weapons set sail, or an aircraft with US engines took off, the USA had to agree!
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
One explanation could be that the real reason Sweden cannot send Gripen is because the US did not allow it. Mirage however cannot be stopped by the US admin...
Well, it appears that it was the Ukrainians who rejected it. This makes the Mirage acquisition even less likely.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Not sure when I'll update next, Sunday or Monday most likely. No major changes. Ukrainian counter-attacks in Kharkov continue to beat against Russian lines, no significant movements though there are unconfirmed reports Russia crossed the Volchya river in Volchansk for the first time, and also near Bugrovatka. However sources are scarce and these may just be probing attacks. Russia continues to advance along sections of the Oskol front, around Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), and west of Avdeevka. There are also minor movements around Novomihailovka where Russian troops continue the push towards the road to Ugledar. Russian forces are notably not advancing in the Seversk salient. Also what started out as a major failure for Ukrainian forces around Toretsk seems to have stabilized. Russian gains there are still happening but have slowed substantially after the first rapid advances. Maybe reserves have arrived.
 
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