The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM

Well-Known Member
fI Putin realize that "the West" is not going to let him get away with it this time, then hopefully he will stop the illegal unprovoked invasion, stop the war crimes and simply pull back
Of course he "realises"; he's not thick. The truth is; irrespective of what the West supplies; unless he's overthrown or reached a point where his army can't sustain things any longer the fighting will continue until he achieves some level of political victory.

We want e.g. China and Iran to draw the right conclusions: that unprovoked attacks of other countries, especially followed by massive war crimes, is not worth the cost.
I think you left out North Korea in your
"nefarious/bad chaps/evil" list. The thing is neither countries I think would launch an "unprovoked" attack. If they did attack it would be because they felt that they had no other alternative or were responding to the actions of others.

In China's case if it launched at attack on Taiwan it would be in response to something which led the Chinese political leadership to believe they have no alternative but to attack - for them it would not be "unprovoked" although it would be seen as such by others . An actual example would be China's entry into the Korean war after repeated warnings were ignored - for the Chinese it wasn't "unprovoked"; nor was its 1979 attack on.Vietnam.

Similarly with the Iranians; attacks by them are from their perspective a response/reactions to what others have done; i.e. the missile attack on the U.S. base was in reaction to the assassination of Solemani and the UAS attack on ARAMCO's facility was in response to Saudi Arabian actions in Yemen.

Better to go for diplomacy.
Sounds great but easier aid than done.

What if diplomacy fails or results in a one sided agreement imposed by much more powerful actors on smaller less powerful ones?

On the Twitter feed - "They’ll weaponize hunger to force poorer countries to tow the Kremlin line. Friends across Africa, Asia, MENA, Lat America, pls hear this & spread the word"

I have just one question : if poorer countries can't feed themselves and because of the current situation; caused by the Russian invasion; will the rich and democratic West step in with assistance or are these countries still expected to cut/minimise ties with Russia and fend for themselves; solely out of principle and in solidarity with the Ukraine?
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't have time to go through all my links, but it looks like Russian strategy around Severodonetsk-Lisichansk is coming out. After cutting Ukrainian forces off at Zolotoe forming a small pocket, Russia is now pushing northward and north-westward out of Ray Aleksandrovka towards the south-western outskirts of Lisichansk. It appears that Russia still wants to encircle Ukrainian forces in the city, and having failed to get past the Artemovsk-Lisichansk road, is now trying to move around the outskirts of Lisichansk itself.

There are reports that Russian troops have entered Zolote and Gorskoe. We can see losses, a Ukrainian T-64BV knocked out, a BMP-2 destroyed allegedly Ukrainian, and an MT-LB allegedly abandoned Ukrainian. We also get some footage of apparently abandoned Ukrainian supplies.

It should be noted that this definitely wasn't the plan all along and instead is the result of two failures, one being that fateful destroyed crossing at Belogorovka, and the other is the Popasnaya breakout stalling at the Lisichansk-Artemovsk/Bakhmut road. This adjusted plan appears to be aimed at accomplishing the same overall goals but in smaller steps.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
If the west would simply let Russia occupy Ukraine, no famine.
If Russia would simply stick to their obligations, stick to the agreements they signed and let Ukraine be a free and independent country, no famine. As always Russia is trying to blame somebody else for their own inhumane and horrendous actions.

Russia introduced a blockage of Ukrainian ports, not the west. Not lifting the blockage and not allowing shipment of grain is weaponizing food, i.e. using famine as a weapon.

Western countries are working hard together with Ukraine to find a solution to this -- efforts to convince Russia to do the right thing and allow shipment of food from Ukrainian ports have not been successful, Russia prefers to starve people. Instead one will try to ship by land. Russia's response:

Russia is clearly using famine as a weapon. There is no doubt about it.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Of course he "realises"; he's not thick. The truth is; irrespective of what the West supplies; unless he's overthrown or reached a point where his army can't sustain things any longer the fighting will continue until he achieves some level of political victory.
Putin started this war, he can choose to end it at any time. He chooses not to end the war at this point in time.
As long as Ukraine wants to fight and defend themselves, as long as they are asking for supplies, the West must continue to provide it. Sacrificing Ukraine to an empire building dictator is not only morally wrong on all levels, long term it will increase not decrease the threats to rest of Europe long term. In retrospect it's clear that Europe/US should have punished Russia much harder for their previous crimes, and also drawn some red lines. That would have changed the calculus and stopped Putin the Terrible from invading Ukraine yet again.
Sounds great but easier aid than done.

What if diplomacy fails or results in a one sided agreement imposed by much more powerful actors on smaller less powerful ones?
Yes the USSR did this repeatedly (e.g. stealing 10% of Finland after launching a war of aggression), and also Russia has a history of using their military and economical weight to impose one sided agreements on weaker countries. Western support can to some extent counterbalance.
On the Twitter feed - "They’ll weaponize hunger to force poorer countries to tow the Kremlin line. Friends across Africa, Asia, MENA, Lat America, pls hear this & spread the word"

I have just one question : if poorer countries can't feed themselves and because of the current situation; caused by the Russian invasion; will the rich and democratic West step in with assistance or are these countries still expected to cut/minimise ties with Russia and fend for themselves; solely out of principle and in solidarity with the Ukraine?
As mentioned in a separate post, the West is working hard with Ukraine to find alternative ways of shipping Ukrainian food to the ME and Africa, however Russia tries to stop this by e.g. bombing grain terminals. Additional emergency aid will most likely also be shipped, when needed.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Great news: another $450 million package from the US including:
  • Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
  • 36,000 rounds of 105mm ammunition
  • 18 tactical vehicles to tow 155mm artillery
  • 1,200 grenade launchers
  • 2,000 machine guns
  • 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats
  • Spare parts and other equipment
Ukraine Situation Report: Patrol Boats, More HIMARS In New U.S. Aid Package (thedrive.com)

The 18 patrol boats was interesting. I wonder where and how they will be used? What type of boats could it be, and with what armament?

The US has given over $6 Billion in military aid since the invasion started:
Jack Detsch on Twitter: "NEW: US has given over $6B in military aid" / Twitter

If only EU could follow suit and do the same -- that would have made a difference.

What is sorely lacking still, is medium-long range air defense, and modern fighter jets. A mistake of the US to not start training Ukrainians pilots and ground crew on how to operate F-16s back in February/March. I hope they will start soon, it would probably take more than 6 months(?) with accelerated training program.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Putin started this war, he can choose to end it at any time. He chooses not to end the war at this point in time.
What he can do and what he will do are two very profoundly different things. Ultimately until or unless he is deposed; the Russian army reaches a point where it can't sustain the fight or a political agreement to his liking is achieved; the war will continue.

As long as Ukraine wants to fight and defend themselves, as long as they are asking for supplies, the West must continue to provide it. Sacrificing Ukraine to an empire building dictator is not only morally wrong on all levels, long term it will increase not decrease the threats to rest of Europe long term.
So you keep saying but we weren't [at least I wasn't] talking about what's right or wrong; good or bad; morality and principles. I also wasn't suffering the West shouldn't be assisting the Ukraine.

You also keep saying that the West "must continue" to provide aid, which is obvious and is what it's doing. Are you worried that if this drags on indefinitely that some in the West might falter or that despite all this aid; the Russians might continue to make, albeit slow; progress?

Yes the USSR did this repeatedly (e.g. stealing 10% of Finland after launching a war of aggression), and also Russia has a history of using their military and economical weight to impose one sided agreements on weaker countries. Western support can to some extent counterbalance.
The notion that states should never resort military means and should always resort to diplomacy sound great. Just like the notion that the world should be free of nukes and that lasting peace will endure. Alas we don't live in a perfect world. There will be instances where diplomacy fails to achieve the intended results or when a more powerful side imposes a deal on a smaller weaker side which is seen as one sided.

As mentioned in a separate post, the West is working hard with Ukraine to find alternative ways of shipping Ukrainian food to the ME and Africa
Right but until this happens smaller poorer countries will have to put their interests first and can't be expected to cut/down scale relations with Russia merely to show solidarity with the Ukraine or to show that they are against the war.

Additional emergency aid will most likely also be shipped, when needed.
Maybe; we'll see. As it stands certain poorer countries are more vulnerable when it comes to food supply and they have to do what they can to meet their needs. For them; survival is far more important than a far flung war in Europe.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
That's a pretty strange take on that statement. It's obvious from context that they're talking about sanctions causing the famine. In other words, Russia isn't causing the famine. Sanctions against Russia are. If the west would simply let Russia occupy Ukraine, no famine. The open statement here is that the west can't keep sanctions going as a viable means of pressuring Russia due to the famine it will cause. This certainly isn't a war crime...
Well, it's technically not a war crime, but it's pretty horrible nevertheless and it actually tells us that we can't bend to that. Because if we do then Russia can go "If the west will simply let Russia occupy Lithuania, no famine" and then "If the west will simply let Russia occupy Poland, no famine", and so on. At some point the world, not just the west, needs to draw a line and it's best if we draw the line now.

Also, the sanctions explicitly doesn't cover food. Russia can export any amount of food they want. There's no rule against it. Russia chose not to. They also chose to prevent Ukraine from exporting their grain.

But yes, you are correct in saying that it's not a war crime. War crime has specific definitions that doesn't include preventing the export of food. If your disagreement is on the phrase "war crime", you're right. If your disagreement is on whether Russia is weaponizing food delivery, well, they are.
 

Larso66

Member
I am wondering now about the next phase. The competent Ukraine performance encourages me to think that they are doing other sensible things. Is there evidence though that Ukraine is forming new brigades or withdrawing existing ones to rest and rebuild? I would thing they've had some hundreds of thousands of recruits come in. Some surely were quickly sent to the front but are others being trained up to give them a strong reserve or even a counter-attack capability?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Russia introduced a blockage of Ukrainian ports, not the west. Not lifting the blockage and not allowing shipment of grain is weaponizing food, i.e. using famine as a weapon.
Ukraine is also self blockade their port by mining them. It is clear when Russia already taking over couple of the port in Azov like Mariupol,they have to clear the mine.

Now Ukraine want NATO mine clearing operation come to their ports and clear the mine. Something that Russia will not going to allowed any NATO naval fleet entering the scene. Something that Ukraine hope from begining, and will give them symbolic victory.

So both of them are weaponising the food.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Ukraine is also self blockade their port by mining them..
Something I'm very curious about. Russia claimed that it was willing to allow neutral ships in to enable wheat to be transported out if the Ukraine demined the area. Was there any official response from the Ukrainians?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Seems Turkey plan so far is the lead potential as middle ground that Kyiev and Moscow consider to accept. Odessa is heavily mined already, and Kyiev first expectations on Armed NATO naval squadron to safe guard traffic out of Odessa, demining some of the entrance thus provide safe corridor, will not be accepted by Russia.

So Turkey proposed middle ground, no demining, no escort from NATO fleet outside Turkey own fleet. Basically Turkey will maintain no new naval fleet can enter Bosporus, they will escort traffic in and out, Ukraine will give them safe corridor, and Russia will check (with Turkey guarantee) whoever traffic coming in and out will be legitimate grain transport. At least that's what I read it.

Turkey (if this can be workable) then become again someone in NATO that can still be acceptable by both waring parties. If this happens will provide save facing resolution for NATO on getting the grid lock workout. Not bad for a country that can never be fully accepted by Euro zone, and even call by some pundits in Euro zone to kick them out from NATO for benefits of Sweden and Finland coming in.
 
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New video claiming the first use of HIMARS near Shyroke (from www.liveuamap.com):


The distance from the indicator on the map, to the bridge at Kozatske is ~94 km. The max range of the M31 munition is 84 km (wikipedia). Other parts of the southern front are close enough to the Kosatske and Kherson bridges to be within M31 range. Im not sure if the 200 lb warhead is capable of knocking out a span of those bridges (the Kosatske bridge appears to be a dam, but I cant be sure from the pics I have seen).

The capability to damage or destroy those bridges should give the RU a matter of concern. Knock one bridge out and the RU supply problems become worse. Knock 2 bridges out and you now have the largest RU POW camp in Ukraine.

The position of the HIMARS units (looks to be a battery of them from the video) has to be for a good reason with so many places they could be used for counter-battery.

Edit: not sure if the bridge at Antonivs'kyy is suitable for vehicular traffic or not....is this a railroad bridge only ?
Edit2: The group fired 12 rockets, with 6 coming from the launcher on the right, so maybe it was just a section of 2 launchers
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Intresting article on the M-777. It's seems a major problem is that requires much more maintenance than the Soviet era guns the Ukrainians are accustomed to. Over time however as the Ukrainians gain more experience we should expect less issues.

"In the first week of putting the M777 cannon into combat, about 35% of the guns had technical problems. Within a month, all military aid from the West almost “evaporated'"

"One of the mechanical parts, with the most complex structure of the M777 cannon, is the anti-repulsion system, the push-up mechanism of the cannon recoil reduction mechanism. This is a very complex gas-hydraulic system, consisting of a hydraulic damper, which reduces recoil, and a pusher, which returns the barrel to its original firing position."

"Because the rate of fire must is very fast, in order to avoid detection and counterattack by the Russians, causing continuous hydraulic oil leakage at the joints of the high-pressure pipes, as well as the condition of oil and gas in the reverse-repulsion unit. The howitzer rise is “overheated”, when the M777 has to fire beyond the allowed features. However, even experienced American units often let their artillery fail, for such technical reasons."


Something that's occupied to me is that the Russians seem to making more effective use of their UASs compared to the initial few weeks of the invasion. It's either that or they're just uploading more videos; they released a video of Ukrainian troops which rushed in a house that was targeted by a TOS and videos of artillery strikes on
M-777s.
 
Intresting article on the M-777. It's seems a major problem is that requires much more maintenance than the Soviet era guns the Ukrainians are accustomed to. Over time however as the Ukrainians gain more experience we should expect less issues.
Whats the link for the article ? I hear a lot of conflicting info in this regards.
 
OK, thats the one I saw earlier. Something to consider:

"When the barrel is affected by external forces, it will lead to bending (even if it is very small), this technical factor will greatly affect the accuracy of the bullet when fired. In other words, under “fire and run” conditions, the accuracy of advertised weapons, such as the M777, turns out to be low."

Barrels will flex every time they fire. This is normal. The impulse caused by a round firing will be far greater than that of towing. I have my doubts that towing is going to cause noticable accuracy degradation.

Having said that, I dont know shit compared to a real 13. I will ask a few contacts to see if they used the M777, but for such a widely used artillery piece, I have my doubts that so many serious flaws actually exists in the weapon.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Great news: another $450 million package from the US including:
  • Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
  • 36,000 rounds of 105mm ammunition
  • 18 tactical vehicles to tow 155mm artillery
  • 1,200 grenade launchers
  • 2,000 machine guns
  • 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats
  • Spare parts and other equipment
Ukraine Situation Report: Patrol Boats, More HIMARS In New U.S. Aid Package (thedrive.com)

The 18 patrol boats was interesting. I wonder where and how they will be used? What type of boats could it be, and with what armament?

The US has given over $6 Billion in military aid since the invasion started:
Jack Detsch on Twitter: "NEW: US has given over $6B in military aid" / Twitter

If only EU could follow suit and do the same -- that would have made a difference.

What is sorely lacking still, is medium-long range air defense, and modern fighter jets. A mistake of the US to not start training Ukrainians pilots and ground crew on how to operate F-16s back in February/March. I hope they will start soon, it would probably take more than 6 months(?) with accelerated training program.


Looks like the PB will most likely be the USn MK VI boats previously agreed for foreign sale in 2020. They would be good for coastal or riverine work in the UKR. The riverine aspect is most intersting. These would be ideal for riverine raids and SOF insertions for raids as well

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian warship launching a SAM. Considering the fleet inventory, this either a 11356, or something carrying a deck-mounted Tor.


Allegedly a Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammo truck near Zeleniy Gay, Nikolaev region.


Allegedly destruction of a Ukrainian munitions dump of the 61st Bde in Zeleniy Gay.


Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Kobzartsy, Nikolaev region.


Apparently a Ukrainian mortar position, Liman village, Nikolaev area, getting hit by a Russian strike.


Allegedly a Ukrainian MLRS getting hit in Odessa region.


Ukraine has carried out a series of maritime strikes. Some hit Zmeiniy again, but some hit Russian oil platforms in the Black Sea. Note, those platforms, to the best of my knowledge, had no military assets based on them. There are reportedly 2 unscathed, 3 wounded, and 7 missing.


Russian strikes against Artsiz airfield, Odessa. Allegedly a Bayraktar control station was the target.


Battle damage at Shkol'niy airfield, Odessa region, after Russian strikes.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 was shot down in Nikolaev region, Pervomayskoe village.


An explosion was reported at Skadovsk, Kherson region. Possibly a Ukrainian strike on Russian military storage.


Ukraine apparently hit Novaya Kahovka again.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Gulyaypole, Zaporozhye region.


Russian Ossetian volunteer unit riding T-62s in Zaporozhye area. It appears there are multiple operators of the type across the front but so far none are regular Russian military.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing across Kharkov region.


The Shebelinskaya natural gas refinery is still burning near Kharkov.


The Kharkov depot for subway trains got hit as an alleged Ukrainian staging area.


The Izyum Salient.

Russian strike on the SBU building in Kramatorsk.


Russian troops towards Slavyansk. These are either Russian National Guard or irregulars.


Russian troops allegedly captured the bridge towards Svyatogorsk monastery intact and cleared Ukrainian explosives. Note this probably took place some time ago.


LDNR Front.

Ukrainian soldiers evacuating a WIA in Severodonetsk, under fire.


DNR forces using a Mavic-3 quadcopter to drop a grenade on alleged Ukrainian munition storage.


Allegedly a column of Ukrainian pickup trucks near Vrubovka, getting hit.


Shellings of Donestk continue.


A Russian Kh-59MK2 strike, possibly storage facilities near Bakhmut/Artemovsk.


Russian strike taking out 2(?) Ukrainian M-777 and truck near Lisichansk. These are allegedly new M-777A2s.


Smoke rising over Severodonetsk.


Ukrainian Tochka strike hit Russian munition storage in Krasniy Luch. I think this is footage of the same strike that was reported earlier. 11 minutes of shells chain-detonating.


Some Russian or rebel vehicles destroyed near Avdeevka.


As part of closing the pocket around Zolotoe-Gorskoe, Russian forces took POWs allegedly in village Mirnaya Dolina. They say they've only been drafted a week ago. Apparently the unit taking them is the 90th Tank Division. They've been mostly absent from the news since they lost some T-72As with K-1 haphazardly added near Kharkov-Sumy area. It's possible they were rotated out.


Ukrainian POWs from allegedly Severodonetsk.


Russian Su-25s over Donetsk.


A train of T-80BVs has arrived in Lugansk area. These look like T-80BVs pulled out of storage. I wonder if they put explosives in the K-1 tiles.


Ukrainian service members from the 10th Brigade, complaining that they're left without support against Russian armor, holding Seversk area. They're claiming they're being used as cannon fodder.


Ukrainian forces using the rope-raft crossing method to get into and out of Severodonetsk.


Footage showing battle damage to Popasnaya. The town is now in the rear, but it's a hub for Russian forces, and it's still getting shelled by Ukraine. The reporter comments that there are no civilians in sight, and it looks like a ghost town.


A Russian 9M544 guided 300mm rocket landed in Ukrainian positions near Donetsk. It's likely Russia is stepping up counter-battery fire efforts using the type.


June 19th UAV footage showing the Russian assault on Toshkovka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

Russian Iskander launches, Belgorod region.


Suzemka village, Belgorod region, got hit by shelling, with 1 wounded.


Russian Su-25 crashed in Belgorod area. It's possible it was damaged over Ukraine and failed to make it all the way back.


T-72s and T-64s on a train in the Urals. This is our first confirmation of T-64s being pulled out of storage during this war. Russian doesn't operate the type but plenty of rebel units do.


Misc.

Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Apparently Russian recon from South MD evacuating civilians. Location unclear.


Apparently Russian recon from South MD with Ukrainian POWs, an anti-tank team.


Allegedly Ukrainian 205th Territorial Defense btln taking fire. Location unclear.


Apparently a Ukrainian recon team gets spotted by a Russian UAV, and immediately gets hit by artillery.


Russian Iskander-M operations, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.


Russian Uragan ops in Ukraine. Note they hide in the treeline, move out for a quick strike, and then hide again.


Russian Su-34 strike, location and context unclear.


Knocked out T-72B, allegedly Ukrainian.


Destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1 and KrAZ truck. Location unclear. Warning footage of corpses.


Georgian fighters with a T-72M1 in Ukraine. Location unclear.


Georgian fighters with AT-4s and RPG-75-M. Location unclear.


Ukrainian AN/MPQ-64. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian Beretta MG42/59.


Ukrainian forces still using improvised MLRS, allegedly it's based around S-8 rockets but on a custom rack instead of the standard rocket pod.


A pair of Ukrainian Mi-8s low altitude over a river, location and context unclear.


One of the T-62s recently spotted in Ukraine is a rare variant between a regular T-62 and a T-62M, part of an early incremental upgrade program know as Object 169.


Russian forces continue using captured BTR-4s. Apparently they're quite happy with the type.


Russian Su-35S with 3 R-77-1, 4 R-73, and two Kh-31P.


Russia has begun rebuilding efforts in Mariupol'. Given frequent shoddy construction at home, it's quite possible these won't be great buildings, but for remaining locals this is a chance at normalcy.


NATO/EU.


US service members from the 82nd Airborne in Poland apparently on a training mission for Ukrainian service members receiving western equipment.


Ukraine has apparently gotten 35 M-80 IFVs from Slovenia.


There are reports that Slovenia will hand over 12 MiG-29s to Ukraine if Poland and the Czech Republic agree to cover their airspace until they receive F-16s.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian sources are reporting the fall of the Gorskoe-Zolotoe pocket, and we have footage of POWs from there, though at first look it's nowhere near the ~2000 that Russian sources were claiming surrounded. So far it looks like a total of maybe several hundred POWs. Maybe more footage will surface. The rapid collapse of the pocket, if accurate, is probably dictated by the lack of a large built-up area, and the relatively low quality of forces in it.
 
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