The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM

Well-Known Member
As mentioned in C.J. Chivers's ''The Gun'' the Ukraine had an extremely large stockpile of weaponry following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I'm aware of large stocks being sold to various countries [Viktor Bout comes to mind]; especially to Africa. This however is the first I've heard of arms smuggled from Russia to the Ukraine.


'Oleh Gladkovsky, Poroshenko’s childhood friend and a former defence official during his leadership, was reported to have run a scheme selling used military equipment smuggled from Russia to Ukraine’s defence ministry.'
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As mentioned in C.J. Chivers's ''The Gun'' the Ukraine had an extremely large stockpile of weaponry following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I'm aware of large stocks being sold to various countries [Viktor Bout comes to mind]; especially to Africa. This however is the first I've heard of arms smuggled from Russia to the Ukraine.


'Oleh Gladkovsky, Poroshenko’s childhood friend and a former defence official during his leadership, was reported to have run a scheme selling used military equipment smuggled from Russia to Ukraine’s defence ministry.'
I've come across this info before. After '14, Russia wasn't selling weapons or parts to Ukraine openly. With large stockpiles of Soviet-made equipment in Ukraine, and high corruption in Russia, it was inevitable that some would get smuggled across. There have been several prosecutions in Russia for this sort of thing, but my basic assumption is that at least until this war there were back channels through which some Russian military hardware was making it to Ukraine.

It appears two smaller pockets are being formed around Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area. One is in Gorskoe-Zolotoe, where it appears one road is left open to Lisichansk, and the road is under Russian fire. It's unclear how many Ukrainian troops are there, but recently there were quite a few, as Zolotoe is a strong point that Russia has assaulted unsuccessfully several times. The other is the Azot factory which appears to be cut off from Lisichansk. In both cases it's probably still possible for small groups to exit, but a large and organized force, especially with vehicles and heavy equipment, will have a problem. Defeats in these locations will set the stage for closing the noose around Lisichansk. A successful Ukrainian withdrawal will make it much easier to hold the Seversk-Lisichansk road open, and possibly stall for quite some more in Lisichansk.
I'm seeing reports that Russia has taken Ray-Aleksandrovka, closing the pocket around Gorskoe-Zolotoe. It's unclear how many Ukrainian forces are trapped inside, estimates vary from a few hundred to over 2000. I'm also not sure how tightly Russian forces control the fields and countryside around there, so it's possible Ukrainian forces will be able to exit, just not along roads.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
An interesting peace plan proposal by National Interest. I don't think Russia, Ukraine, or the West would be particularly happy with this plan which does have the hallmark of a true compromise. I have some doubts about the issue of a referendum in the Donbass that involves all refugees. It will be awkward to prove who exactly lived there without turning to Ukrainian state databases, which Russia wouldn't trust, and Ukraine would have every incentive to pad. I also have my doubts about the west being willing to accept the portions about lifting all sanctions on Russia related to this war, and halting further NATO expansion Eastward.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Sadly, the longer this $hitshow goes on the more likely uncomfortable compromises will have to be made, probably not in Ukraine’s favour although that isn’t certain.

Possibly serious deterioration of the global economy might see the USA, China, and the EU figuring a way to end this.
 

CJR

Member
I would imagine the disarmament clauses are a no-go for UKR.
If we had a new, sane, Russian government that had just finished nailing Putin's balls to the Kremlin's gate the proposal might be kinda workable. But with Putin still in power, or with one of his obvious successors in place, it amounts to giving him permission to try again in two years time, now with Ukraine utterly neutered...

1. Ukraine accepts neutrality without any external security guarantees... Problem is how the f*** does that stop Putin pulling the same bullshit starting this time next year?
2. Recognize the loss of Crimea... Not a ridiculous concession for Ukraine.
3. Withdrawal of Russian troops everywhere except LNR/DPR... not insane for an initial ceasefire but with point 4....
4. Referendum on LNR/DPR independence, Donbass to be completely demilitarized if staying in Ukraine wins but to remain a Russian forward operating base if independence wins... Under ideal conditions this would be a reasonable compromise but with point 3 letting the Russian army stay in place and the number of Ukrainian civilians "evacuated" to Siberia by Russia there's f*** all chance of the referendum being democratic behind Russian lines.
5. Russia must accept and show support for Ukrainian EU membership. A rather token concession and no doubt Putin's "acceptance" and "support" for Ukrainian EU membership will be horribly token while behind the scenes his minions actively work to hamper it...
6. Ukraine to cut any potential ties with NATO... combined with the neutrality with no security guarantees; Russian monkey business with UKR EU membership and the gutting of the Ukrainian military this blatantly leaves Ukraine without protection from Putin pulling his bullshit again.
7 & 8. Ukrainian military gutted, no concessions from Russia. (Also a strong hint that the author has turned his brain to goop listening to the whole "medical research lab = bio weapons programme" bullshit...).
9. Generic point for ending any serious conflict.
10. Russia gets total get out of jail free card on the war crimes and reparations front.
11-13. All kinda generic, can't see any strong objection either way (at least assuming Russia wasn't planning on immediately trying it's bullshit again).
14. NATO to not just stop further expansion but also freezes out Finland.
15. NATO to withdraw from everything east of Germany, Russian to kinda maybe pull out of Belarus.


For a meaningful peace Ukraine needs neutrality with meaningful security guarantees (I'd say that implies immediate EU membership minimum) and any referendum in Donbass needs to happen with both Ukrainian and Russian troops withdrawn, and probably some kinda peace-keeping force in place (not gonna be European... would China or India be willign to step up?).
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
If we had a new, sane, Russian government that had just finished nailing Putin's balls to the Kremlin's gate the proposal might be kinda workable. But with Putin still in power, or with one of his obvious successors in place, it amounts to giving him permission to try again in two years time, now with Ukraine utterly neutered...

1. Ukraine accepts neutrality without any external security guarantees... Problem is how the f*** does that stop Putin pulling the same bullshit starting this time next year?
2. Recognize the loss of Crimea... Not a ridiculous concession for Ukraine.
3. Withdrawal of Russian troops everywhere except LNR/DPR... not insane for an initial ceasefire but with point 4....
4. Referendum on LNR/DPR independence, Donbass to be completely demilitarized if staying in Ukraine wins but to remain a Russian forward operating base if independence wins... Under ideal conditions this would be a reasonable compromise but with point 3 letting the Russian army stay in place and the number of Ukrainian civilians "evacuated" to Siberia by Russia there's f*** all chance of the referendum being democratic behind Russian lines.
5. Russia must accept and show support for Ukrainian EU membership. A rather token concession and no doubt Putin's "acceptance" and "support" for Ukrainian EU membership will be horribly token while behind the scenes his minions actively work to hamper it...
6. Ukraine to cut any potential ties with NATO... combined with the neutrality with no security guarantees; Russian monkey business with UKR EU membership and the gutting of the Ukrainian military this blatantly leaves Ukraine without protection from Putin pulling his bullshit again.
7 & 8. Ukrainian military gutted, no concessions from Russia. (Also a strong hint that the author has turned his brain to goop listening to the whole "medical research lab = bio weapons programme" bullshit...).
9. Generic point for ending any serious conflict.
10. Russia gets total get out of jail free card on the war crimes and reparations front.
11-13. All kinda generic, can't see any strong objection either way (at least assuming Russia wasn't planning on immediately trying it's bullshit again).
14. NATO to not just stop further expansion but also freezes out Finland.
15. NATO to withdraw from everything east of Germany, Russian to kinda maybe pull out of Belarus.


For a meaningful peace Ukraine needs neutrality with meaningful security guarantees (I'd say that implies immediate EU membership minimum) and any referendum in Donbass needs to happen with both Ukrainian and Russian troops withdrawn, and probably some kinda peace-keeping force in place (not gonna be European... would China or India be willign to step up?).
WRT peace keeping forces, India, yes, don’t see China as an option without perhaps other Asian players SK, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and perhaps a ME volunteer.
 
I can't see the West or Ukraine accepting that proposal, it heavily favours Russia and basically rewards their actions. If they were that desperate to avoid War I believe they could have done so before it started without making such drastic compromises.

I think it is more likely support for Ukraine will be increased, possibly via providing PMC or encouraging more Western Military Personnel to "volunteer" to fight for Ukraine. There has already been footage posted of Foreign Marines fighting in Ukraine, apparently quite effectively. No evidence they are there in significant numbers at the moment but I think there is potential for many more to get involved.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Ukraine accepts neutrality without any external security guarantees... Problem is how the f*** does that stop Putin pulling the same bullshit starting this time next year?
They're talking about legally binding security guarantees from all permanent UN Security Council members. These are the very external security guarantees that you claim aren't there...

2. Recognize the loss of Crimea... Not a ridiculous concession for Ukraine.
3. Withdrawal of Russian troops everywhere except LNR/DPR... not insane for an initial ceasefire but with point 4....
It's a pretty major concession if you consider that Russia has an area roughly twice the size of the LDNR under occupation. An area that Russia is currently gearing up to annex.

4. Referendum on LNR/DPR independence, Donbass to be completely demilitarized if staying in Ukraine wins but to remain a Russian forward operating base if independence wins... Under ideal conditions this would be a reasonable compromise but with point 3 letting the Russian army stay in place and the number of Ukrainian civilians "evacuated" to Siberia by Russia there's f*** all chance of the referendum being democratic behind Russian lines.
Other then claims by Ukraine, is there any evidence of "evacuation" to Siberia? As far as I know we have regular evacuation of LDNR area civilians out of the war zone. It's not dissimilar to what happened in the '14-'15 war. In all likelihood, most of them will return once the fighting ends. The entire narrative of Russian forced deportation of Ukrainian civilians appears, to me, to be nothing more then Ukrainian propaganda. Modern day Russia doesn't have a huge system of forced labor camps (in point of fact the USSR ended the GULAG in '60). There isn't even infrastructure for mass deportations. And in the age of cellphones, a corrupt Russian government that can't maintain OPSEC for military units in a warzone has secretly force-deported hundreds of thousands of people across a giant country with internet access?

5. Russia must accept and show support for Ukrainian EU membership. A rather token concession and no doubt Putin's "acceptance" and "support" for Ukrainian EU membership will be horribly token while behind the scenes his minions actively work to hamper it...
Other then lack of trust, what else is behind this? What would behind the scenes moves against it even look like? Especially since Russia would publicly be bound to supporting it?

6. Ukraine to cut any potential ties with NATO... combined with the neutrality with no security guarantees; Russian monkey business with UKR EU membership and the gutting of the Ukrainian military this blatantly leaves Ukraine without protection from Putin pulling his bullshit again.
Vis-a-vis external security guarantees, see above.

7 & 8. Ukrainian military gutted, no concessions from Russia. (Also a strong hint that the author has turned his brain to goop listening to the whole "medical research lab = bio weapons programme" bullshit...).
I strongly disagree on this one. If Russia as a nonsensical qualm, make a concession on it, since it doesn't matter, and ask for something that matters in return. The only context where having Russian inspectors in Ukrainian bio-labs is a problem is if those labs are doing something you want to hide from Russia.

10. Russia gets total get out of jail free card on the war crimes and reparations front.
If Donbass votes to stay with Russia, Ukraine could owe for shellings as well as acts committed by Azov in Mariupol'. Realistically asking Russia for reparations means giving Russia something else.

11-13. All kinda generic, can't see any strong objection either way (at least assuming Russia wasn't planning on immediately trying it's bullshit again).
14. NATO to not just stop further expansion but also freezes out Finland.
15. NATO to withdraw from everything east of Germany, Russian to kinda maybe pull out of Belarus.
I mean... reducing tensions done through mutual steps. If this conflict is to not be an escalation spiral, some sort of mutual reductions need to take place. Finnish neutrality could be a good bargaining chip for Russia returning large swathes of occupied territory. It might also not end up being worth much, in which case it could be forgone.

For a meaningful peace Ukraine needs neutrality with meaningful security guarantees (I'd say that implies immediate EU membership minimum) and any referendum in Donbass needs to happen with both Ukrainian and Russian troops withdrawn, and probably some kinda peace-keeping force in place (not gonna be European... would China or India be willign to step up?).
I think you're missing the point here. Immediate EU membership isn't on the table for a number reasons starting with the fact that there are objections from EU member states to this. Conflict resolution via diplomacy is not about fair outcomes. For better or worse, it's about leverage, bargaining power, and compromise. I'm not sold that this is the peace plan, in fact I suspect all parties would reject it. But it's an interesting look at the various moving parts and trading pieces involved.
 

seaspear

Active Member
They're talking about legally binding security guarantees from all permanent UN Security Council members. These are the very external security guarantees that you claim aren't there...



It's a pretty major concession if you consider that Russia has an area roughly twice the size of the LDNR under occupation. An area that Russia is currently gearing up to annex.



Other then claims by Ukraine, is there any evidence of "evacuation" to Siberia? As far as I know we have regular evacuation of LDNR area civilians out of the war zone. It's not dissimilar to what happened in the '14-'15 war. In all likelihood, most of them will return once the fighting ends. The entire narrative of Russian forced deportation of Ukrainian civilians appears, to me, to be nothing more then Ukrainian propaganda. Modern day Russia doesn't have a huge system of forced labor camps (in point of fact the USSR ended the GULAG in '60). There isn't even infrastructure for mass deportations. And in the age of cellphones, a corrupt Russian government that can't maintain OPSEC for military units in a warzone has secretly force-deported hundreds of thousands of people across a giant country with internet access?



Other then lack of trust, what else is behind this? What would behind the scenes moves against it even look like? Especially since Russia would publicly be bound to supporting it?



Vis-a-vis external security guarantees, see above.



I strongly disagree on this one. If Russia as a nonsensical qualm, make a concession on it, since it doesn't matter, and ask for something that matters in return. The only context where having Russian inspectors in Ukrainian bio-labs is a problem is if those labs are doing something you want to hide from Russia.



If Donbass votes to stay with Russia, Ukraine could owe for shellings as well as acts committed by Azov in Mariupol'. Realistically asking Russia for reparations means giving Russia something else.



I mean... reducing tensions done through mutual steps. If this conflict is to not be an escalation spiral, some sort of mutual reductions need to take place. Finnish neutrality could be a good bargaining chip for Russia returning large swathes of occupied territory. It might also not end up being worth much, in which case it could be forgone.



I think you're missing the point here. Immediate EU membership isn't on the table for a number reasons starting with the fact that there are objections from EU member states to this. Conflict resolution via diplomacy is not about fair outcomes. For better or worse, it's about leverage, bargaining power, and compromise. I'm not sold that this is the peace plan, in fact I suspect all parties would reject it. But it's an interesting look at the various moving parts and trading pieces involved.
Wit regards to civilians being taken from the Ukraine ,Tass back in may stated over one million perhaps you may be able to find out their fate please
Live updates l TASS: more than 1M Ukrainians taken to Russia | AP News
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Russia says now that more than 300,000 children has been deported. In total almost 2 million Ukrainians have now been deported, according to Russian officials: Russia says more than 300,000 Ukrainian children deported

The UN’s top rights official Michelle Bachelet expressed her concern on Wednesday at reports that Ukrainian children have been “forcibly deported” from the country’s embattled eastern regions, and taken to Russia for adoption.

In other news, a Swedish volunteer has been interviewed by a Swedish blog. He is educated as a soldier in Sweden but with para-medic background. He is working as para-medic in Ukraine. Excerpt (auto translated):
You have been a nurse in the [Swedish] Armed Forces before. Are there any experiences about training, equipment and organization that you want to convey to our combat paramedics back home in Sweden?

The single biggest lesson is that we must fundamentally rethink how we use and label our healthcare resources. Our dimensioning opponents have repeatedly shown that they completely ignore the protection that the Geneva Convention provides to healthcare professionals. They openly and deliberately fire at medical personnel time and time again with both direct and indirect fire, with fire control. We can not advance openly, we can not show ourselves to the enemy, we can not have unprotected platoon positions and we can no longer override combat training for paramedics. We need to remove all visible crosses, shatter all bandage sites and train paramedics more. We need to change our whole thinking regarding relocation and placement. Otherwise, we will suffer enormous losses completely unnecessarily, and as a result, our entire healthcare chain may be shut down. In the future, we must assume that the enemy will always actively try to fight medical units and practice accordingly.
Okänd soldat i Ukraina: ”De flesta sårade får inte ens smärtstillande” | Militär Debatt (militardebatt.com)

English Al Jazeera (non-Western source) recently had an article about Russian war crimes:
Inside Ukraine’s war crimes investigations | Russia-Ukraine war | Al Jazeera

US officials are working with the Ukrainian government and European allies to document war crimes allegedly committed by Russian forces.
But the sheer volume of the documented war crime cases could be too overwhelming for Ukraine’s justice system as well as for the International Criminal Court (ICC), raising questions of how many cases will be brought to trial and how many accused Russian war criminals could ultimately face justice.
“This is a Nuremberg moment in terms of just the sheer scale of the breach of the rules-based international order that has been perpetrated by Russia in this invasion,” said Beth Van Schaack, the U.S. ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice. “Even the most well-resourced prosecutorial office would have a hard time grappling with the sheer scale of the criminality that’s been on display.”
Ukraine's 'Nuremberg Moment' Amid Flood of Alleged Russian War Crimes (foreignpolicy.com)
 

Señor Pomidor

New Member
An interesting peace plan proposal by National Interest. I don't think Russia, Ukraine, or the West would be particularly happy with this plan which does have the hallmark of a true compromise. I have some doubts about the issue of a referendum in the Donbass that involves all refugees. It will be awkward to prove who exactly lived there without turning to Ukrainian state databases, which Russia wouldn't trust, and Ukraine would have every incentive to pad. I also have my doubts about the west being willing to accept the portions about lifting all sanctions on Russia related to this war, and halting further NATO expansion Eastward.

Hello,

1.- It seems the author forgot about the canal that allows the water to flow from the Dnipr river to Crimea. That is probably the most strategically important conquest of Russia in the south of Ukraine and, if Russia doesnt annex the territory it control in the Kherson Oblast, it will certainly ask for assurances of the water supply to Crimea in any possible peace deal.

2.- Pro-Ukrainian accounts confirm the completion of the encirclement in Zolote and Hirske. We dont know yet how efficiently did Ukraine evacuate their troops from the area.

 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
With large stockpiles of Soviet-made equipment in Ukraine, and high corruption in Russia, it was inevitable that some would get smuggled across.
To the best of your knowledge what weapons were acquired via dodgy means and smuggled from Russia into the Ukraine?

I find it ironic that at one point the Ukraine had such a large stockpile of stuff with a long shelf life; stuff which would have come in useful a decade and a half later had they not been sold off - unofficially - to various countries and groups. On another matter we have the first confirmation [if indeed accurate] that M-777s have been lost. Inevitable of course that some would eventually be lost.


''Additionally, Russian forces have been able to destroy some of the new Western-supplied weapons, including M777 howitzers, in targeted attacks.''

Also did you hear anything years ago about Ukrainian cruise missiles being acquired by China and Iran?


''However, the U.S. official indicated that the intelligence community believes that Ukrainian officials, operating at the highest levels, facilitated the sale of a dozen AS-15 cruise missiles - six each to China and Iran. The AS-15 is a high speed cruise missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers or nearly 1,900 miles. They are air-launched, meaning they can be fired from aircraft.''
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
To the best of your knowledge what weapons were acquired via dodgy means and smuggled from Russia into the Ukraine?
I recall spare parts for tanks, new engines for APCs, and spare parts for jets taken from Soviet era stockpiles. But this is from memory, and from Russian sources on smugglers being prosecuted for this. I suspect the real list is much larger.

I find it ironic that at one point the Ukraine had such a large stockpile of stuff with a long shelf life; stuff which would have come in useful a decade and a half later had they not been sold off - unofficially - to various countries and groups. On another matter we have the first confirmation [if indeed accurate] that M-777s have been lost. Inevitable of course that some would eventually be lost.


''Additionally, Russian forces have been able to destroy some of the new Western-supplied weapons, including M777 howitzers, in targeted attacks.''

Also did you hear anything years ago about Ukrainian cruise missiles being acquired by China and Iran?


''However, the U.S. official indicated that the intelligence community believes that Ukrainian officials, operating at the highest levels, facilitated the sale of a dozen AS-15 cruise missiles - six each to China and Iran. The AS-15 is a high speed cruise missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers or nearly 1,900 miles. They are air-launched, meaning they can be fired from aircraft.''
This is not the first confirmation. I've posted footage of M-777s getting hit several times, and a reasonably good quality photo of one destroyed a few updates ago.

It seems the author forgot about the canal that allows the water to flow from the Dnipr river to Crimea. That is probably the most strategically important conquest of Russia in the south of Ukraine and, if Russia doesnt annex the territory it control in the Kherson Oblast, it will certainly ask for assurances of the water supply to Crimea in any possible peace deal.
That's a good callout. It slipped my mind too, and it's a point Russia hasn't emphasized at all in their handling of the war, but it is a point Russia has quietly prioritized early-on in the war.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
interesting peace plan proposal by National Interest. I don't think Russia, Ukraine, or the West would be particularly happy with this plan which does have the hallmark of a true compromise.
The Russian sites have already put emphasis on:
1. Donbas full liberation
2. Reistament of old Imperial Russia Taurida Oblasts.

So I don't think Russia will ever let go control of Azov Sea, which means Old border of Taurida Oblast and Donbas area will be their minimum price. If they manage to secure all Donentsk (as Luhansk practically already theirs now), they will move to south and practically can call Kiev either you negotiate now, or loosing Nikolayev and Odessa.

All of this will depend on result in Donbas, that's why war in Donbas is the definitive result in the ground.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The first HIMARS has arrived in Ukraine:
Not a second too soon! I hope more will follow shortly, with lots of rockets. If Putin realize that "the West" is not going to let him get away with it this time, then hopefully he will stop the illegal unprovoked invasion, stop the war crimes and simply pull back. Highly unlikely to happen at least in the near-to-medium term, but I will not give up hope quite yet. For Ukraine, and for freedom and democracy in Europe, but also elsewhere. We should not forget that others are observing and drawing their own conclusions about what is happening.

We want e.g. China and Iran to draw the right conclusions: that unprovoked attacks of other countries, especially followed by massive war crimes, is not worth the cost. Better to go for diplomacy.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Update on cultural destruction caused by Russia:


I did not find a recent WHO update on healthcare attacks, the latest is from May 9, when more than 200 attacks on healthcare facilities had been recorded (many remain unrecorded and/or unverified). The numbers must be much higher now, more than one month later.

Russia openly bragging about using famine as a weapon:

It seems there are no limits to Russian war crimes. Also disturbing that they are so open about it now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia openly bragging about using famine as a weapon:

It seems there are no limits to Russian war crimes. Also disturbing that they are so open about it now.
That's a pretty strange take on that statement. It's obvious from context that they're talking about sanctions causing the famine. In other words, Russia isn't causing the famine. Sanctions against Russia are. If the west would simply let Russia occupy Ukraine, no famine. The open statement here is that the west can't keep sanctions going as a viable means of pressuring Russia due to the famine it will cause. This certainly isn't a war crime...
 
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