Taliban Uprising - Is the state of Pakistan in peril?

Firn

Active Member
Introduction

This thread is devoted to current conflict in Pakistan in which an ever-growing part of the Pakistani territory seems to be infiltrated, disrupted or even controlled by a coalition of forces which seem to be united by a extremist view of Islam.

I think this might turn out to be one of the most decisive struggles in the first quarter of the 21th century. We should collect here articles, papers, documentaries in short all material which might be useful to analyse this conflict. We will then try to come up with an hopefully evolving synthesis concerning the strategy and the tactics of both the insurgents and the political and military leadership of Pakistan.

Only persons should contribute which have something useful to add. While this discussions has to touch sensitive matters I expect the posters to do so in an educated and composed fashion. I hope that the moderators here will delete posts which disturb the discussion and add nothing to the debate.


Thanks
 

Firn

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See the NY Times site on Pakistan with a wealth off information on Pakistan and the latest news across the western media. An excellent starting point for an analysis.

The latest news: from the NY Times.

April 24, 2009
Pakistan Sends Special Police to Taliban-Held Area
By JANE PERLEZ and PIR ZUBAIR SHAH

ISLAMABAD — Pakistani authorities on Thursday deployed special constabulary forces to a strategically important district only 70 miles from the capital, Islamabad, that has come under the effective control of the Taliban in the last several days, police and residents said.

Four platoons of the Frontier Constabulary, a paramilitary police force, moved into the district at the request of the civilian commissioner of the area on Thursday, following four platoons that arrived Wednesday. At least one officer was killed and another seriously wounded in a clash with Taliban militants during the deployment, police said.

The fall of the district, Buner, did not mean that the Taliban could imminently threaten Islamabad. But it was another indication of the gathering strength of the insurgency and it raised new alarm about the ability of the government to fend off an unrelenting Taliban advance toward the heart of Pakistan.

Buner, home to about one million people, is a gateway to a major Pakistani city, Mardan, the second largest in North-West Frontier Province, after Peshawar. The deploying platoons, each with about 40 officers, will be used to increase the Pakistani security presence in the region, but the poorly paid, poorly trained force was not expected to immediately challenge the Taliban militants, who, armed, with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, have erected checkpoints and intimidated local police, residents said, forcing them into their stations.

“They take over Buner, then they roll into Mardan and that’s the end of the game,” a senior law enforcement official in North-West Frontier Province said. He asked that his name be withheld because was not authorized to speak to the news media.

The Taliban had pushed into the district from the neighboring Swat Valley, where the Pakistani Army agreed to a truce in mid-February and remains in its barracks.

In another sign that the Taliban were consolidating their control of Buner on Thursday, Taliban militants held a meeting, or jirga, with local elders and the local administration, residents said, agreeing to a similar truce to the one that has taken hold in Swat, residents said.

At the jirga, the Taliban pledged to local leaders that they would not interfere with non-government organizations or government installations, nor openly display their weapons. Negotiations would be used, the Taliban pledged to sort out friction with local residents, and there would be forgiveness for those who killed Taliban in earlier fighting.

Representatives of Mualana Sufi Mohammed, the Taliban leader who brokered the peace deal in Swat, were present at the meeting, the results of which will be announced at a public rally on Sunday, a resident in Daggar, Buner’s main city, said.

Pakistani television news reports indicated Thursday that Taliban militants were also crossing into Shandla, another district bordering Buner and Swat.

On Wednesday, officials and residents said heavily armed Taliban militants were patrolling villages, and the local police had retreated to their station houses in much of Buner. Staff members of local nongovernmental organizations had been ordered to leave, and their offices were looted, residents said. Pakistani television news channels showed Taliban fighters triumphantly carrying office equipment out of the offices of the organizations.

“They are everywhere,” one resident of Daggar, Buner’s main city, said by telephone. “There is no resistance.”

The Taliban advance has been building for weeks, with the assistance of sympathizers and even a local government official who was appointed on the recommendation of the Taliban, the senior official said.

It also comes 10 days after the government of President Asif Ali Zardari agreed to the imposition of Islamic law, or Shariah, in Swat, as part of the deal with the Taliban.

A local politician, Jamsher Khan, said that people were initially determined to resist the Taliban in Buner, but that they were discouraged by the deal the government struck with the Taliban in Swat.

“We felt stronger as long we thought the government was with us,” he said by telephone, “but when the government showed weakness, we too stopped offering resistance to the Taliban.”

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she was concerned that Pakistan’s government was making too many concessions to the Taliban, emboldening the militants and allowing them to spread by giving in to their demands.

“I think that the Pakistani government is basically abdicating to the Taliban and to the extremists,” Mrs. Clinton told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill.

She added that the deterioration of security in nuclear-armed Pakistan “poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world.”

A senior American official said Mrs. Clinton’s remarks were prompted in part by news of the Taliban takeover in Buner. The officials said that the further erosion of government authority in an area so close to the capital ought to stir concern not only in Pakistan but also among influential Pakistanis abroad.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for the second time in two weeks, reflecting the sense of alarm in the Obama administration. He was scheduled to meet with Pakistan’s top military and intelligence commanders.

The takeover of Buner (pronounced boo-NAIR) is particularly significant because the people there have tried in the past year to stand up to the Taliban by establishing small private armies to fight the militants. Last year when the militants encroached into Buner, killing policemen, the local people fought back and forced the militants out.

But with a beachhead in neighboring Swat, and a number of training camps for fresh recruits, the Taliban were able to carry out what amounted to an invasion of Buner.

“The training camps will provide waves of men coming into Buner,” the senior law enforcement official said.

The Taliban expansion into Buner has begun to raise alarm among the senior ranks of the Pakistani Army, said a Western official who was familiar with the Pakistani military.

On Wednesday, one of the highest-ranking army officers traveled from Islamabad to Peshawar and met with the officers of the 11th Corps, the army division based in Peshawar, to discuss the “overall situation in Buner,” the official said.

One of the major concerns is that from the hills of Buner the Taliban have access to the flatlands of the district of Swabi, which lead directly to the four-lane motorway that runs from Islamabad to Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province.

The Pakistani military does not have a presence in Buner, Pakistani and Western officials said. The main government authority in Buner is the police, who have become demoralized by their low pay and lack of equipment in the face of the Taliban, Pakistani police officials say.

The Taliban have set up checkpoints in a number of villages in Buner, intimidating policemen and forcing them into their police stations, residents in Daggar said by telephone.

The militants were patrolling the bazaar in Daggar, residents said. Women, who used to move freely around the bazaars, were scarcely to be seen, they said. Those who did venture out were totally covered.

One of the big attractions of Buner for people from all over Pakistan, the shrine of the Sufi saint Pir Baba, was now in the control of the militants, the senior law enforcement official said.

Last year, the villagers around the shrine kept the Taliban at bay when the militants threatened to take it over.

But in the last 10 days, the Taliban closed the shrine and said it was strictly off limits to women, the senior official said. The militants are now patrolling it.

The Taliban control in Buner came swiftly in the last few days, officials said.

The militants were helped by the actions of the commissioner of Malakand, Javed Mohammad, who is also the senior official in Swat and who was appointed on the recommendation of the Taliban, the senior law enforcement official said.

The Taliban began their assault on Buner in early April, when a battalion of the Taliban militia with heavy weaponry crossed over the hills from Swat to Buner, according to an account in the newspaper Dawn that appeared on Saturday.

The Taliban then captured three policemen and two civilians, and killed them, the newspaper said.

Infuriated by the killings, people in lower Buner and Sultanwas assembled a volunteer force and killed 17 Taliban fighters, the account said.

But soon after that, Mr. Mohammad tried to persuade the local elders to allow the Taliban to enter Buner, the newspaper said.

Soon afterward, Mr. Mohammad ordered the local armies to dissolve, the senior law enforcement official said. The order led many of those who had been willing to stand up to the Taliban to either flee or give up, the official said. Among those who are reported to have fled is Fateh Khan, a wealthy Buner businessman. Mr. Khan had been one of the main organizers and financiers of the private armies in Buner.

In a show of strength, the militants held a feast in the home of a local Taliban sympathizer two weeks ago, and since then the Taliban have fanned out into the district, the senior official said.

Carlotta Gall contributed reporting from Islamabad, Mark Landler and David Stout from Washington, and Sharon Otterman from New York.
 

Firn

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A very interesting series, especially since the channel has also the chance to talk to leaders on the militant side.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XJZnESwcgo"]Pakistan's War - AlJazeera[/ame]
 

Firn

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[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pykn1Cv7OrQ&feature=channel"]Sharia in Swat - AlJazeera[/ame]
 

TrangleC

New Member
Yes, it doesn't look good over there.
I'm afraid the "war on terror" has destabilized Pakistan. Before 9-11 Pakistan surely was a supporter of terrorism in some way, but at least it was stable with the power in the hands of the pretty much secular military and secret service. Now, with the regime being an ally to the USA, the islamist forces that have been nurished and used as a weapon by the secret service in the past, turn on their former supporters and with success, as it seems.

Put in the situation in Iraq, which pretty much has to become a shiite state in the future (at least it is hard to see any other possible outcome there) and it really seems as if the "war on terror" achieved exactly the opposite of what it wanted to achieve on all fronts.

I don't want to be too smug about that, but i have to admit that lately i often think about 2003, when we all saw those TV reports about people pouring french wine down the drain and renaming french fries "freedom fries" with a certain grimm amusement.

Back then every TV station and their dog in Germany (where i live) broadcasted political talk shows all the time and those shows were full of American journalists living in Germany, telling the Germans with pretty harsh words how stupid they are for oposing the Iraq war and that Germany and France would isolate themselves from the rest of the world with not being part of the "coalition of the willing".
Those journalists, frequent guests in such shows even before 9-11, haven't dared to show their faces in TV ever since 2004 or 2005.
What happened to Donald "Old Europe VS New Europe" Rumsfeld and Collin "The WMDs are there because we got computer generated pictures of them" Powel, we all know.

If i wouldn't know that we all will pay the price for the whole mess and not just the "coalition of the willing", i'd have a good laugh about it.
 

webmaster

Troll Hunter
Staff member
the islamist forces that have been nurished and used as a weapon by the secret service in the past, turn on their former supporters and with success, as it seems.
Who exactly? Names? Keeping the current situation on the ground in mind, who was nurished by whome?

Firn,

Have you been to Pakistan, ever? I know a few people over there on the ground, the situation is alot different than what it seems on TV or newspapers. My boss was in Pakistan few months back and he was surprised to see how media hypes small incidents into big stories and amount of misinformation is just mind boggling.

Remember, its all about ratings as far as media is concerned. The more the story is hyped up = more viewers = more ad revenue and at the end truth and ground realities become incoherent.
 

TrangleC

New Member
Who exactly? Names? Keeping the current situation on the ground in mind, who was nurished by whome?
The Taliban by the Pakistany secret service. I thought that would be common knowledge by now.
I must have seen dozens of documentaries about that (about pre 9-11/NATO Afghanistan when Ahmad Shah Massoud and his Northern Alliance still were fighting a lonely war against the Taliban) by now.
 

webmaster

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The Taliban by the Pakistany secret service. I thought that would be common knowledge by now.
I must have seen dozens of documentaries about that (about pre 9-11/NATO Afghanistan when Ahmad Shah Massoud and his Northern Alliance still were fighting a lonely war against the Taliban) by now.
Some facts, if you follow the news as closely as I do:

Its, Pakistani, not Pakistany.

There is a difference between Taliban in Pakistan and those in Afghanistan. They are different entities, fighting for different purposes. Pakistani Taliban are lead by Bait-ullah Mehsud, while Afghan Taliban have Mullah Omar as their leader.

The Pakistani taliban originated from wazirstan in past 2 or 3 years, where they fought with Pakistani military forces. Who provided them arms and weapons? I don't know but it shouldn't be hard to figure that out. It is also known fact that CIA drones, etc. have come very close to killing Mehsud many times but failed... There are different factions of Pakhtoon tribes and parties operating from north western Pakistan, not all are associated with Taliban.

It is important to know the ground realities, who belongs to which party and what are their interests. You can't form a comprehensive strategy and tactics against these people until you know who is with which group and what is their agenda. For example, the recent Shariah law issue in Swat valley, it seems like it is Taliban agenda when people of Swat valley have been living under that law (willingly) for centuries, even during the time of the British.
 

Firn

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@Webmaster, I wrote it seems:

This thread is devoted to current conflict in Pakistan in which an ever-growing part of the Pakistani territory seems to be infiltrated, disrupted or even controlled by a coalition of forces which seem to be united by a extremist view of Islam.
First we will collect material and then we will try to judge :)

Who exactly? Names? Keeping the current situation on the ground in mind, who was nurished by whome?
That is part of the sketchy, rough and certainly subjective analysis and synthesis which are the fruits of individual interpretations - but I and hopefully others will try their best to do the truth justice.

BTW: I have been in (northern) Pakistan in the summer of 2006, mostly for trekking/climbing (nothing too extreme) in the mountains and i enjoyed - just like in the mountains of India, or even more - the land and the people. Friends of mine have also been there, also almost excusively for mountaineering.
 

Firn

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Back then every TV station and their dog in Germany (where i live) broadcasted political talk shows all the time and those shows were full of American journalists living in Germany, telling the Germans with pretty harsh words how stupid they are for oposing the Iraq war and that Germany and France would isolate themselves from the rest of the world with not being part of the "coalition of the willing".
Those journalists, frequent guests in such shows even before 9-11, haven't dared to show their faces in TV ever since 2004 or 2005.
What happened to Donald "Old Europe VS New Europe" Rumsfeld and Collin "The WMDs are there because we got computer generated pictures of them" Powel, we all know.
We should focuse on the topic in Pakistan, but you have made IMHO a very valid point when asking to which extent "the war on terror" has influenced the current situation. This must be part of the anaysis.

And yes, back then I also was against the invasion of Iraq. It is often disturbing how civilians and especially the media advocate the "rational" use of a war of aggression - as if war is a simple tool and instrument.
 

TrangleC

New Member
Some facts, if you follow the news as closely as I do:

Its, Pakistani, not Pakistany.
Sorry, sorry, mea culpa. It's not my language.
There are internet forums with pretty good spell check functions where that wouldn't have happened.

There is a difference between Taliban in Pakistan and those in Afghanistan. They are different entities, fighting for different purposes. Pakistani Taliban are lead by Bait-ullah Mehsud, while Afghan Taliban have Mullah Omar as their leader.

The Pakistani taliban originated from wazirstan in past 2 or 3 years, where they fought with Pakistani military forces. Who provided them arms and weapons? I don't know but it shouldn't be hard to figure that out. It is also known fact that CIA drones, etc. have come very close to killing Mehsud many times but failed... There are different factions of Pakhtoon tribes and parties operating from north western Pakistan, not all are associated with Taliban.

It is important to know the ground realities, who belongs to which party and what are their interests. You can't form a comprehensive strategy and tactics against these people until you know who is with which group and what is their agenda. For example, the recent Shariah law issue in Swat valley, it seems like it is Taliban agenda when people of Swat valley have been living under that law (willingly) for centuries, even during the time of the British.
While it might be that now they are two different entities, Afghan Taliban originated from Pakistani madrassas too.

And the last time i heard something about the whole affair, NATO commanders considered controlling the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to cut off the steady stream of supplies and personell from Pakistan to the Afghan Taliban to be the most crucial aspect of the conflict.

I don't know how much of an issue Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Taliban were in the American media previous to 9-11, but i remember very well the times before, about 10 years ago and all the documentaries, TV reports and interviews with politicians running in German TV and on BBC World about that. Back then, the biggest issue was how the Taliban treated women in Afghanistan and the European politicians (and parts of the Clinton administration) berating Pakistan for what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, because clearly Pakistan was seen as the power behind the Taliban, not just because the Taliban originated from Pakistani Qoran schools.

(I apologize in advance for all the typos and spelling errors.)

@ Firn:
Sorry if you consider that too off topic. I just wanted to point out that there has been media coverage of Pakistan and Afghanistan before 9-11, even though the issues were different.
 
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momokaabba

New Member
Just to highlight the same fact again as indicated by webmaster

American drones, not on one, but multiple occaisions have been given pinpoint location of Baitullah Mehsud which was either not acted upon or!!!

This is not an hypothetical statement rather backed by fact that about two months back Gen Mullen was questioned by a Pak reporter from Jang group on this matter and he replied that US's priority (at that point) was getting at Haqqani (Jallal ud Din) group.

And also to point out one more thing that got sidelined is that the Taliban/Islamic insurgents are not the genisis of ISI alone you will have to count in CIA there as well.

As for the composition of the taliban are conecrned they are not an homogenous group as outlined earlier, (they use the same camoflauge) but work for different ineterests. e.g., SAWAT taliban spokesman was not able to explain (few months back) why they abducted the Chinese engineers when they had no aparent conflict of interets with them.

These insuregents have been waging a sustained war intialy a low intensity up till 2007 and now for two years a more hiigh intensity one.

It does not take a rocket science to figure out that it will require resources and at a fast pace!!!

FATA has no industrial base as such and if we give a poppy as an excuse, I will say that it is produced in Afghanistan and hence it needs to be checked on the other side of Pak border.
Plus NATO and US forces are the ones that are guarding our backs on that border, or are they ???

So where are resources coming from????
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Not that I can add much, just a question:

How come that the Pak army seems so inefficient, on paper it looks quite strong, are it or parts there of failing on purpose?
 

webmaster

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Sorry, sorry, mea culpa. It's not my language.
There are internet forums with pretty good spell check functions where that wouldn't have happened.


While it might be that now they are two different entities, Afghan Taliban originated from Pakistani madrassas too.

And the last time i heard something about the whole affair, NATO commanders considered controlling the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to cut off the steady stream of supplies and personell from Pakistan to the Afghan Taliban to be the most crucial aspect of the conflict.

I don't know how much of an issue Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Taliban were in the American media previous to 9-11, but i remember very well the times before, about 10 years ago and all the documentaries, TV reports and interviews with politicians running in German TV and on BBC World about that. Back then, the biggest issue was how the Taliban treated women in Afghanistan and the European politicians (and parts of the Clinton administration) berating Pakistan for what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, because clearly Pakistan was seen as the power behind the Taliban, not just because the Taliban originated from Pakistani Qoran schools.

(I apologize in advance for all the typos and spelling errors.)

@ Firn:
Sorry if you consider that too off topic. I just wanted to point out that there has been media coverage of Pakistan and Afghanistan before 9-11, even though the issues were different.
The Afghan taliban originated from Kandahaar. How can band of few thousand madrassa students from Pakistan take over whole country, defeat ALL parties who were shelling kabul at that time, and push Northern Alliance into a corner? Besides, Pakistani taliban are Pakhtoons, not tajiks, uzbiks or hazaaraas as is the case in Afghanistan. So, it had to be a home grown movement which won support of the LOCAL people. It was purely a Afghani movement and it brought peace to afghanistan after decades of war and chaos. Only role Pakistan played was, it supported them, as they brough stability to Pakistan's western border. Wouldn't any country support a regime which brings peace and security and stability to over 1000 miles of border? Frankly, I as an American, prefer peaceful neighbors and not drug traffickers and bandits.

As far as their internal policies are concerned, there are various opinions on that and majority of them are not in favor of Taliban for right reasons.
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
webmaster

To my understanding talliban is primary a pashtun movement.
I think it's diificult or unnatural to differentiate between Pashtuns in Pakistan and Pashtuns in Afghanistan. I think it difficult to say that the talliban movement (defined as a primary ethnic pashtun movement with a strict, bordering on salafistic (spelling?) interpretation of sunni islam) is pakistani or afghani, I think it's draws it roots in both countries as pashtuns lives in both countries.
 

momokaabba

New Member
Not that I can add much, just a question:

How come that the Pak army seems so inefficient, on paper it looks quite strong, are it or parts there of failing on purpose?
Why the focus on Pak side alone!!!

Are NATO/American forces with all their might showing more efficiency on the other side????

How much of Afghanistan is actually under their control????

Pakistan is being called the hotbed of terrorism but many (if not the most) terrorists are traversing to and fro between Afghanistan with impunity, of course they do not come back to Pak empty handed.

Problem lies with Pakistani leadership which does not have the spine or maybe consensus to say that NATO/US are projecting their problems in Afghanistan onto Pakistan. And partly this is so because Pakistan has been in such a political turmoil over the last 2 years owing to lawyers’ movement and transition to democracy.

Pakistan is not proxy of US anymore and America should stop dealing with Pakistan as such. Responsibilities have to be shared between the two as stakeholders, for both success and failures. And that is the way to rebuild the trust that has been eroded. One more thing that America should do is that it should avoid involving other parties as their super-proxies in overseeing what is happening in Afghanistan.

I have utilised so much time on Afghanistan as the terrorism issues in Pakistan have been integrally associated with situation Afghanistan since 1980’s.

If you see the situation here-and–now most of the insurgency movements have received monetary support and hardware via Afghanistan, sources may vary however. Examples range from BLA in Baluchistan to neo-Talibs/Thugs in NWFP.

Many people who question my assertion may only watch BBC, CNN and FOX and are at a danger of developing tunnel vision. A nice suggestion would be to watch alternate sources of information, plenty available on freeview digibox. (i hope it doesn’t sound patronising)
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Are NATO/American forces with all their might showing more efficiency on the other side????
A different situation, but yes. Millitarely the western forces are doing more than well on a tactical level against the talliban and others - problem for the west is just that, that does far from create the conditions for a victory against the tallibans. Victory can only be achived by a Afghani state, foreign forces can only bring the conditions necessary to facilitate the possibility of an afghani state victory - which seems to be far from, given the ineptitude , corruption and inefficiency of Karzai's rule..

In Pakistan that's different Pakistani state and goverment should be able to quell and stamp out this rebellion. Though it seems that even on the "easy" tactical level the pakistani army can't deal with these people, that's the background of my question; Why is the pak army under performing. F.ex. Is it disloyal to the goverment, and fails on purpose?
 

momokaabba

New Member
it seems that point has been missed.

Since problem pervades on both sides of border I will have to state explicitly here that ineficincies on Afghan side of the border are spilling into Pakistan rather than the ather way round as beig projected by the WEST.

everything is relative in terms of performance in a war on terror,

So called tactical victories in Afghanistan that are projected in media have relatively little bearing on who is actually holding the ground and forwardign their agenda.

It is an accepted matter of fact that coalition forces, if at all, make excursions for, at most, 24-48 hours out of their compounds without changing much on the ground. and in most of these tactical victories they are bogged down and rely massively on air ordinance to quell the opposition!!!!, dont see that as gong anyway near a victory where you are not achiving an administrative control which is vital to prevent
anarchy and again which in turn plays big part in furthering Talibans agenda. Now while NATO/US forces are occupying force there you cant blame local administration for inefficincies since NATO/US is the superceding local authority. and anyway who is Karzai????

I am not making a new point rather reastating it so will not reiterate it and rest it here

bye
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Guys, if you are interested in reading more, there is a transcript of a speech followed by a Q&A session given by US DOD Undersecretary of Defence, Ms Flournoy, on 21 April 2009, on the US Strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While this speech offers an American perspective, the American perspective cannot be ignored. Have a look, the Q&A session is very interesting. :D
 
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