S.Korea, Indonesia to develop 4.5 gen fighter aircraft KFX

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thyssenkrupp Aerospace has secured a three-year materials supply contract from Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI). Flight International doesnt report for which programs, but it can be expected that the materials will also be used for the KFX.



As a bonus: here a photo of the 2nd and 3rd prototypes.
 

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RoyZZConnor

Member
Are they not going for F-35? It is doubtful they have funding for both, which have the same role anyway so logistics wouldn't make sense.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Are they not going for F-35? It is doubtful they have funding for both, which have the same role anyway so logistics wouldn't make sense.
S Korea has a very strong economy and can afford both. F-35s are for the present whereas KFX is for the future in addition to developing a domestic fighter industry, basically keeping up with the Japanese.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
A short but nice video of a prototype under construction.
In this article they are also talking about an ALCM, but it is unclear about which one.
It seems that South-Korea is developing an indigenous ALCM based on the Taurus KEPD 350, so maybe about that one.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Here some KFX-videos.

Its funny to see how much is blurred, while in the past everything was visible. A little bit too late to start to censor now.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Is this Korean DAPA diplomatic ways for their Domestic consumption, on status of Indonesia continue involvement in KFX/IFX ?

I can see some cynical Korean will see Indonesia continue asking more demand on IP rights, while continue asking for less Financial commitment as 'pressing' Korean or not showing serious commitment.

The idea of Indonesian told Korea for reduce Financial commitment, while in same time want to spend billions on Rafale, F-15, and others, certainly raise eye brows on what Indonesia real intentions with the program.

Personally with MinDef wish list on expensive items like F-15, Rafale, AEW, MRTT, C-130J, 8 Frigates, 4-6 Submarine, MV-22 Osprey, and others, raise question whether is there any money left for this project ?

There're projects that DI need to finish such as mass production of N219, UAV's, N245 that already push the limitations of DI capacities. Will this administration wants to Invest more on DI capacities on top Financial commitment on this project ? We haven't talk on potential off set project that DI will got from Dassault for Rafale projects.

In the end it's come back to money. With that kind of wish list that need to be Finance on multiyears installment, I don't think MinDef budget can cope on further obligation with this project. Sure, it can be argue on using DI cash flow, thus making B to B. However what cash flow ? with DI far from Financial Independent condition. Using research budget from say BPPT or Lapan ? Those options are further more than reality considering how little Investment budget for Aerospace research in Lapan and BPPT.

The Korean can see now, Indonesia MinDef has money for other expensive project. However they don't have/willing to invest more on KFX project.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The situation is quite embarrassing, the only way for the Indonesian government to save the day and win back the trust of the South-Koreans is to confess they have lied all these years, and that they did not want to continue with this project from the beginning, only because it is an SBY-project.
But i do not see that will happen. I expect the current administration will keep quiet about this project until everyone forgot about it, or they will just blaim the Koreans.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Some time ago, I talk with my colleagues in Bapenas. I ask simply if this KFX/IFX saga can ruin Indonesia - ROK co-op in the future. He simply say; ROK is our important Partner, but there's a lot of other projects that we can give the ROK, either in Strategic Investment or even in other projects in Defense.

I tend to take word from places like Bapenas or Ministry of Finance, compared to MinDef on development of long term projects. Aside of Political will from current administration to this KFX/IFX project (which they see as SBY's project), there's also some reluctance to spend more Investment with DI. From what I got from them is that DI has to prove themselves with lesser project first (like current production line and N219), before they can propose on bigger projects.

DI is really still in mess up conditions financially, they also need to prove themselves as reliable producers. Now they begin from relative smaller project again, as part of that proofing stages.

So there's several multi factors that can influence Indonesia continuing or discontinuing in KFX project. However one thing clear, this project is only a very small drop toward Indonesia-ROK partnerships. I even talk with some Korean Bankers colleagues on defense projects influence toward ROK Investment, and they even laughed. They say it doesn't matter where the defense co-op going to be. For Korean, there's much more profitable Investment and Business co-op with Indonesia. They give example on Car Battery co-op and Investment. It's more strategic for Korean Automotive Industry in future, then defense projects like this KFX/IFX.

The point I put in here, from Bapenas to from Korean Bankers, KFX/IFX project is not really that big deal for overall ROK-Indonesia co-op business scheme. Thus this can also influence the Administration point of view on this project.

Whatever the results will be, whether Indonesia stay or not, whether MinDef will compensate ROK with other defense projects or the Administration will offer Korean other Investment co-op, it's still all open in table.

However if Indonesia pull away from this project, it can raise questions toward our administration (now and future) commitment for long term Aerospace projects. That's why many in DI still fight for this project continuation. We can see that from their executives opinion in media. Still in the end, DI only have small influence toward final decision.

Just add:
Some people (senior ones) in Bapenas and Ministry of Finance even SOE Ministry, really don't want to pour money toward DI, unless DI can prove to be reliable producers.
They put example of India's pouring money toward Hindustan Aerospace (HAL) as example how Aerospace SOE continue to be inefficient players by only pouring money on them. They simply don't want that to happen in Indonesia. Many of them still remember situation in 80's and 90's with continue pouring money toward IPTN, and only resulted with Bloated Inefficient Aerospace company. This's one of big factor that being talk as part of consideration for IFX project in DI. They want DI to prove themselves with N219 as profitable line, before pouring more money again.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
Not providing sources. 6 points for 3 months.
The situation is quite embarrassing, the only way for the Indonesian government to save the day and win back the trust of the South-Koreans is to confess they have lied all these years, and that they did not want to continue with this project from the beginning, only because it is an SBY-project.
But i do not see that will happen. I expect the current administration will keep quiet about this project until everyone forgot about it, or they will just blaim the Koreans.
The renegotiation started in july 2018 and it is the year we have record trade deficit around 8.5 billion USD and Rupiah get huge pressured. Later, our trade balance get better, Alhamdulillah, which is deficit around 3 billion USD in 2019 and record surplus in 2020 of 21.74 billion USD (biggest in history after 2012 trade surplus). Even in January 2021 we are Alhamdulillah still surplus around 1.96 billion USD.
SOURCE REQUIRED
That positive trend is also added with that huge possible battery investment (9 billion USD with LG Chem and 5 billion USD with CATL (MOU stage)-and possible deal with Tesla). The possible EV battery investment can be another huge export sources in our future trade. Not to mention huge growth in electronics equipment export in 2019 (dont know 2020 data) and huge stainless steel export since 2017 and at least in 2019 we have already become second biggest stainless steel exporter in the world. The underlying problem is actually pretty much gone, AlhamduliLLAH, and Rupiah is quite stable after early pandemic panic in March-Mei 2020.

Korea should make a deal now since Indonesia still has huge money in 2021 due to huge stimulus package and also there is still huge leftover budget from 2020. Next year, there will likely be no huge stimulus as government has also said stimulus only for 2020 and 2021 fiscal year. They will be more tight in 2022 and above in order to reduce debt to GDP ratio that will be at 40 percent in the end of 2021.
SOURCE REQUIRED
I still believe Bappenas only want to approve 1.6 billion USD for new acquisition and maybe includes refurbishment and upgrade of old fighter as well as Alman said. Jokowi has said last year that Armed Force and Defense Ministry should understand the economic situation and prioritise domestic defense industry. I still remember what Jokowi said and I bring them here so you guys can hear it again. This 21 billion USD spending only on Airforce is crazy and I believe will make Jokowi get more angry. It is like Armed Force and Defense Minister dont listen to what he has said clearly and repeteadly and even he recorded what he said and publish it on YT channel and many media also report it, electronics and non electronic ones.

2019 he said that


2020 he said something similar. This is meeting after the news about possible 2 Billion USD Osprey acquisition come out to the media.


After that, he presses again the need to prioritize domestic defense industry


This is why Armed Force General who talk about that plan said the realization will be dynamic and he also said it hasnt been approved even by Defense Minister. As I said Armed Force can give their plan, but the realization depends on Defense Minister and particularly economic Ministers and Jokowi himself. It will be different if the plan has already been approved.

I would say that huge import of fighters while we are still undergoing KFX/IFX program will be brought in next election campaign. This will be very damaging to Prabowo as we know on debate both the opponent and commentators will come from knowleadgeable people, he can be accused as preferring importing fighters over domestic industry advancement. Not to mention that France submarine acquisition plan that jeopardizes long plan to build submarine in the country where the budget for submarine building facility has already been approved and will be completed in 2021.

@Ahmad YOU HAVE MADE SOME CLAIMS WITHOUT PROVIDING THE SOURCES AS PER FORUM RULES . THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT THE MODERATORS HAVE SPOKEN TO YOU ABOUT THIS . YOU HAVE BEEN ON HERE LONG ENOUGH TO KNOW WHAT THE POSTING REQUIREMENTS ARE. 6 POINTS FOR 3 MONTHS.

Ngatimozart
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
The renegotiation started in july 2018 and it is the year we have record trade deficit around 8.5 billion USD and Rupiah get huge pressured. Later, our trade balance get better, Alhamdulillah, which is deficit around 3 billion USD in 2019 and record surplus in 2020 of 21.74 billion USD (biggest in history after 2012 trade surplus). Even in January 2021 we are Alhamdulillah still surplus around 1.96 billion USD.
SOURCE REQUIRED
The government submitted a renegotiation regarding the development of the Korean Fighter Xperiment / KF / IFX fighter aircraft with the South Korean Government. The renegotiation was carried out taking into account Indonesia's current economic conditions. "With the national economic conditions, the President decided not to cancel, but renegotiate. How Indonesia's position can be lighter for issues related to financing," said Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Human Rights Affairs Wiranto, after the coordination meeting. in his office in Jakarta, Friday (10/19/2018).


Indonesia Trade Deficit US$8.57B in 2018, the Worst in Four Decades


----------------------------------2019

Thus, Indonesia's trade balance in 2019 recorded a deficit of 3.20 billion US dollars, lower than the deficit in the previous year of 8.70 billion US dollars.


-----------------------------------2020

Indonesia booked a record trade surplus in 2020 as imports fell steeper than exports during a tumultuous year for international trade as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and hit global demand. The country logged a trade surplus of US$21.74 billion last year, the second-highest figure in the country’s history



----------------------------------January 2021

JAKARTA, Feb. 15 (Xinhua) -- Indonesia recorded in January a trade surplus of 1.96 billion U.S. dollars, according to Indonesia's Agency of Statistics on Monday.


That positive trend is also added with that huge possible battery investment (9 billion USD with LG Chem and 5 billion USD with CATL (MOU stage)-and possible deal with Tesla). The possible EV battery investment can be another huge export sources in our future trade. Not to mention huge growth in electronics equipment export in 2019 (dont know 2020 data) and huge stainless steel export since 2017 and at least in 2019 we have already become second biggest stainless steel exporter in the world. The underlying problem is actually pretty much gone, AlhamduliLLAH, and Rupiah is quite stable after early pandemic panic in March-Mei 2020.

Korea should make a deal now since Indonesia still has huge money in 2021 due to huge stimulus package and also there is still huge leftover budget from 2020. Next year, there will likely be no huge stimulus as government has also said stimulus only for 2020 and 2021 fiscal year. They will be more tight in 2022 and above in order to reduce debt to GDP ratio that will be at 40 percent in the end of 2021.
SOURCE REQUIRED




Electrical machinery and equipment was the fastest grower among the top 10 export categories, up by 50.5% from 2018 to 2019. In second place for improving export sales was footwear. Indonesia’s shipments of iron and steel posted the third-fastest gain in value up by 23.5%.


Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of stainless steel during 2019.

  1. United Kingdom: US$445.5 million (23.4% of stainless steel exports)
  2. Indonesia: $430.9 million (22.6%)
  3. Sweden: $210.8 million (11.1%)
  4. Italy: $100.9 million (5.3%)
  5. United States: $98.7 million (5.2%)
  6. Austria: $93 million (4.9%)
  7. Spain: $89.6 million (4.7%)
  8. Germany: $70 million (3.7%)
  9. France: $65.2 million (3.4%)
  10. Taiwan: $44.3 million (2.3%)
  11. Malaysia: $35.9 million (1.9%)
  12. Belgium: $29.7 million (1.6%)
  13. Netherlands: $21 million (1.1%)
  14. Finland: $19.1 million (1%)
  15. India: $17.4 million (0.9%)

---------------------------------------------------------------

Stimulus Budget

Indonesia’s debt will swell significantly next year as the government increases spending to help the country recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, an official has said.

“This is a direct consequence of a countercyclical policy to support economic recovery and strengthen economic fundamentals in 2020 and 2021,” Febrio said at a discussion on Wednesday. “We will continue to look at various financing sources to maintain the health of the debt ratio.”

The government expects the budget deficit to reach 6.34 percent of GDP this year to cover a Rp 695.2 trillion (US$49.23 billion) stimulus package. In 2021, the government expects the budget deficit to hover between 3.05 percent and 4.01 percent.

“The government realizes that fiscal discipline is crucial to speed up economic recovery,” Febrio added. “We expect the budget deficit will be able to return below 3 percent in 2022.”



@Ahmad YOU HAVE MADE SOME CLAIMS WITHOUT PROVIDING THE SOURCES AS PER FORUM RULES . THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT THE MODERATORS HAVE SPOKEN TO YOU ABOUT THIS . YOU HAVE BEEN ON HERE LONG ENOUGH TO KNOW WHAT THE POSTING REQUIREMENTS ARE. 6 POINTS FOR 3 MONTHS.

Ngatimozart
@ngatimozart
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@Ahmad Thank you. Please remember to post your sources and we all will be happy.

Just one note, Xinhua, along with Global Times, RT, Isvetzia, Fox News, Sky News, and Wikipedia are not accepted as reliable, reputable sources.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
For many years the Indonesian government refuses to pay the biggest part of the 20%, then it started with endless negotiations with unrealistic demands, so it will be totally unfair to blame minister Prabowo if Indonesia's participation in the KFX-project ends.
"We cannot wait blindly until Indonesia pays the agreed-upon sum for the pivotal project."

"Given that its defense budget is limited, it seems almost impossible to continue working with Indonesia on the KF-X and we need to seek ways to independently proceed with the project."

Amid growing uncertainty over the KF-X, there are growing calls for Korea to end the program partnership with Indonesia.

"Both countries are not talking about parting ways out of concerns over causing diplomatic problems. If DAPA brings up the issue first, Korea will fall into Indonesia's break-up strategy," Shin said.

"That's why DAPA keeps saying negotiations are still under way although it looks like an almost done deal internally."
So maybe that is the reason why Indonesia is not kicked out yet/pull back yet of this program and both sides pretends that negotiations are still in progress.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Alright gentlemen....now we have the video of the first prototype. It's quite sharp and clear and it shows us a lot. Not only the fuselage, but also a close-up from the exhaust nozzles, de static airframe for fatigue testing and the static flight simulator.

 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
This was posted on an unofficial page dedicated to South-Korean defence-related topics on Facebook. I just put a part of the text here.


The Korean government has officially acknowledged that KF-X Korean Fighter program will remain unaffected if Indonesia is removed the program.

Despite this, however, the Korean government added that removal of Indonesia from the KF-X program will have no negative effects.

1) It has been officially confirmed that removal of Indonesia will not affect current projected unit cost of KF-X, which was calculated based on 120 aircraft initially ordered by the Republic of Korea Air Force. It does not take into account 48 aircraft ordered by Indonesia.

2) Indonesia cannot re-claim $201.4 million it paid to South Korea if it were to pull out of the program. As per bilateral agreement, if Indonesia misses more than two payments, it is not entitled to funds it has already provided.

3) According to insider source (separate from this news report), certain KF-X components which were originally intended to be manufactured in Indonesia have already been prepared to be manufactured in South Korea. This was reportedly put into motion once Indonesia began delaying payment. As such, there will be no delay in KF-X production if Indonesia were to be removed.

4) Still, it would be beneficial for bilateral relations and overall program cost if Indonesia was to remain in the KF-X program. However, South Korean government is in no rush to pressure Indonesia since KF-X program will continue smoothly with or without them. Indonesia stands to gain less and less.....

.....
Their source is this website: [심층분석] "인니 공동개발 아니라도 KF-X 충분히 개발" 한국의 자신감 원천은
I can not confirm the correctness of the English text because i cant read Korean.

Big chance that Indonesia stays officially in the program, but will not pay or contribute anything anymore, until the development program comes to an end.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Big chance that Indonesia stays officially in the program, but will not pay or contribute anything anymore, until the development program comes to an end.
My suspicion is all depends if there's another big Long Term Fighter program. If there's one other long term fighters program, then probably the administration will pull out from this IFX. It's simply based on what Bapenas and Ministry of Finance willing to invest on Fighters program.

I just don't see if (say) we go for Dasault offer for license Manufacturing of Rafale (or it could be from LM or Boeing), Then there's still enough fund to commit with under licensing another like KFX (as IFX). However for one thing, whatever the choices taken by Indonesia on KFX program, it will not matter much on Indonesian - South Korean Defense corporation. One thing for sure, as I have points out before, this KFX program is just small items on overall Indonesia - ROK business and economics co-op. Fo that, I don't think the Administration will think much of consequences with ROK relationship if we pull out from the program.

So for anyone that still hoping Indonesian involvement with KFX, then pray MinDef do not go with other long term projects with either Dasault, LM or Boeing. Pray Indonesia will go on buying second hand F-16 and refurbished them locally as Pakistan done with Mirage III/V. If they choose long term expensive under license program with either Dasault/Boeing or LM, then say bye bye to KFX involvement.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
Guys, how do you interpret this statement, IMO we have paid February financial commitment but hasnt paid the previous payment that our government delayed. It also suggested that we have agreed to pay whole the financial commitment of those 20 % stake, but it will be paid in stages.

I get confused since the writer use the word "had" that in my opinion should use the word "has" instead. But the writer also use the word "had" instead of the word "has" when they explained our payment in February this year. This program requires the stake holder to pay 2 times within a year, which is in early year and in the late year. The last one we paid our due is in January 2019. Here I give you guys the statement from DAPA.

------------------------------------------------

DAPA reported to the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee last month that of the 831.6 billion won (US$753.1 million) that Indonesia was supposed to pay through February, it had only paid 227.2 billion won (US$205.7 million), leaving 604.4 billion won (US$547.3 million) unpaid. Indonesia had agreed to pay its total contribution of 1.76 trillion won (US$1.57 billion), representing 20% of the project cost, in several stages.

In a statement addressing the controversy, DAPA said that “the Indonesians have expressed their commitment to continued participation in the KF-X development program” and that “the two countries have been seeking a mutually beneficial arrangement through several rounds of working-level negotiations.”

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
DAPA reported to the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee last month that of the 831.6 billion won (US$753.1 million) that Indonesia was supposed to pay through February, it had only paid 227.2 billion won (US$205.7 million), leaving 604.4 billion won (US$547.3 million) unpaid. Indonesia had agreed to pay its total contribution of 1.76 trillion won (US$1.57 billion), representing 20% of the project cost, in several stages.
It is what it is. Nothing changes from what already being put some times ago. Indonesia had not paid and has not pay the next commitment. Don't pay too much attention to what Korean DAPA said. The negotiations is still 'officialy' happen, however the decision is in Indonesian side. Whether still in or out. Off course Korean DAPA still saying Indonesia still has commitment, cause the negotiations still going on. They have to be in 'diplomatic' mode in order not to offend or embarrassed Indonesian side.

@Ahmad I know you're one the guys that very supportive on Indonesian continues involvement in this project. I already see what your wrote in other forums with your other 'id'. You always optimistic on this, even some other Indonesian Forumers in other forums debate you on other potential course being taken.

For me, as I have mentioned it few years back in this forum, the chances of Jokowi's admin will walk away from this deal is still big since this project was and is SBY project. Jokowi's administration will going to try anything to changes the project (on whatever reasoning) because they will not going to give any credit to SBY administration. Simple at that. Look at what they're doing with SBY's party, they know SBY still a Political force with enough influence in next 2024 election. They're knowingly try to discredit anything that SBY's did during his term, including how his administration involvement with KFX. They will try to discredit SBY by stipulating that Indonesian got unfair deal in KFX, to give public justification on why they're doing this renegotiations.

From beginning Indonesian involvement is as Junior Partner in KFX deal with chances to build IFX version 'underlicense' from KAI as IP owner. As Junior Partner there're no IP ownership with DI/Indonesia. DI involvement in design work, just like F-35 International partner doing. They also got involvement on F-35 design work, under LM control. Just like DI work under KAI control. Which means all Junior Partner work is belong to Senior Partner.

I put back this cause for Indonesian side, it's also going to be their Justification if they choose to pull out. If they got better under license deal from 'say' Dasault or Boeing, or LM or Airbus, they will use that as justification to pull out and say to public they got better deal then what SBY's can get from KAI.
Even if they stay with KFX, they will only doing it after they got better deal from Korean from what SBY's got.

Like it or not, domestic politics play on this IFX deals. Thus, I suggest don't look to what Korean wrote or say in media. The ball is not in Korean side, but in Indonesian side. If Jokowi's administration already decide on this Project, they will talk that in public. Cause whatever the choices they're going to make, they will try to gain Political credit over SBY one way or another.
 
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