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Pakistan

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by ngatimozart, Sep 21, 2018.

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  1. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Moderators Note. This thread is about Pakistan's geostrategic situation. Political, religious and nationalistic posts will not be tolerated and offenders will incur the wrath of the Moderators.
     
  2. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Pakistan is an interesting yet highly complex nation. It likes to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds and at some stage this may come to bite it in it's proverbial bum. It has had a relationship with the US since 1947. However the relationship between Pakistan and the US has been anything but stable. Pakistan has forged a close relationship with the PRC and recently it has begun to forge a closer relationship with Russia, buying weapons from Russia, which will most likely incur US sanctions. We must also remember that Pakistan and India are both mortal enemies and nuclear powers.

    Since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2002, which toppled the Taliban from power, Pakistan has been accused, rightly or wrongly, of supporting the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The latest US State Department Country Reports on Terrorism 2017 states that Pakistan is still allowing the Taliban and the Al Qaeda linked Haqqani Network to operate in Pakistani territory. Of course the Pakistani govt denies such accusations but, over the years, there appears to be more than a grain or two of truth to the accusations.

    Pakistan continues to harbor Taliban, including al Qaeda-linked Haqqanis | FDD's Long War Journal

    My own view is that in the longer term, Pakistan will move further into the orbits of Beijing and Moscow, reducing any influence that Washington may have over it. To be honest, this may be a blessing in disguise because the machinations that come out of Islamabad must be stressful. On the flip side, that should move Delhi closer to the West and wean them off Russian equipment.
     
  3. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    India will likely be continuing its relationship with Russia to some extent for sometime to come. However Russia increasing ties to Pakistan would certainly assist in pushing India towards the West. It is in Russia interests to maintain a good relationship with India, just in case China turns on them.
     
  4. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    Pakistan moves closely to China is related to their perception of increase political hostility from US and West toward them. However the most importantly US closer relations toward India.

    India will always be determining factor toward Pakistan international policy. In cold war with India's Congress party colder attitude toward US and West, and India also looking out for China..they see West getting warmer to China and thus they looked to USSR for balancing and getting military development support.
    Now opposite wind happen..with BJP getting warmer relations from US, the India's business importance to US getting higher..Russia more close to China..Thus Pakistan as counter move will also going to be more close to China and Russia..
    Also perception of Trump as Anti Moeslem and BJP as Hindu fanatics are also strong in current Pakistan, thus some ellement in Pakistan (if looking on the mood of media and forumers)..also seeing Trump using India to subdue Pakistan..

    However it's not saying Pakistan going to be anti US and West..both India and Pakistan have large diaspora in US and West..and that will also influence Pakistan attitude toward US and West.
    However as long as current Republicans strains (a.k.a Trump politics) in Washington controlship..plus BJP in New Dehli controlship..Current Pakistan trend toward Beijing and Moscow will only get strengthen..

    In the end both India and Pakistan will move toward opposite sites..which will be more determining factor on which one going toward West and which one going toward Beijing and Moscow..

    As on armament..Pakistan knows they will never got parity on conventional military strength with India..thus they will going to try getting parity on nuclear side with India.

    Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance | Arms Control Association
    According to that..they got more nuclear warheads than India..although India seems have the edge on delivery systems..
    Still whether Pakistan got their military hardware from US/West or China/Russia..in the end the parity Pakistan looking is in Nuclear..as they see it guarantor for their safety toward more powerfull conventional military India.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
  5. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    Pakistan can't get closer to China than it already is. It's dependent on China for almost everything. Granted the new government will try to change a lot of things but for the time being; China will still remain the most important country for Pakistan as far as the economy and external security goes.

    Two factors at play : although India desires good relations with Uncle Sam it still doesn't fully trust Uncle Sam; there is always the possibility of sanctions [like in 1998] and a new administration deciding to impose more limits what India can or can't buy. With Russia the Indians at least know what to expect and a lot of what they buy from Russia they can't get elsewhere.

    Even if ties between Russia and Pakistan get a lot more closer than they already are; India will still be a far more important partner as far Russia is concerned and for Pakistan it will be China that will still be its main partner. China will still provide more loans than Russia possibly could to prop up the Pakistani economy and would be able to supply stuff [at better rices with more attractive terms] that Russian can't or is unwilling.

    Which is why Pakistan for decades has been so focused on Kashmir and Afghanistan : to respectively tie down the Indians and as strategic depth. It's for the same reason that Pakistan continues to maintain links to the Afghan Talibs and opposes the Indian presence in Afghanistan. As for nuclear parity, Pakistan knows India will always have an edge, the idea is to make the Indians think twice before using nukes; knowing that despite having a smaller arsenal Pakistan can retaliate. The Pakistani/Indian variant of MAD.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2018
  6. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    I think the Russia-China relationship could be the significant future watch for India as it could mean a threesome (Russia-China-Pakistan). Such an outcome would depend on which emerging superpower offers the best economic advantage to Russia but as I said before, Russia has to be wary of China's emerging superpower status militarily. It has already emerged as an economic superpower. India on the other hand as a longer way to go, especially militarily. In any event, if such a "threesome" were to occur, India would have little choice but to enter into the Western orbit, at least for awhile.
     
  7. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    Irrespective of how great relations get between Russia and China; Russia will never allow it to jeopardise its relations with India. Even if relations between Russia and China significantly improve it doesn't necessarily mean that India will have to align itself closer to the West. There is also the matter of Russia and China being competitors in certain areas and both still having a certain level of distrust towards each other. Sure, Russia and China share common interests and both have issues with Uncle Sam but a Russian/Chinese alliance isn't likely to happen anytime soon.

    As for Pakistan its main problem is the state of its economy. Will be interesting to see how the new PM addresses this problem; caused to a large extent by the need to spend on defence [rather than development, healthcare and education]; a result of a decades long paranoia of India. A lot will also depend on the level of cooperation the PM gets from the army. Like previous leaders the new PM will also have to manage relations with the U.S. and the fact that some of what the U.S. wants Pakistan to do might be good for the U.S. but not for Pakistan.

    Directorate S review – masterly study

    Pakistan on the Brink by Ahmed Rashid – review

    TRUMP TURNS ON PAKISTAN

    PAKISTAN NEEDS A STRONG NEW LEADER

    Eric Margolis on Imran Khan’s Election in Pakistan – July 27, 2018









     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2018
  8. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Never? Nations do the unexpected if it is in their perceived interest (e.g. Stalin-Hitler pact 1939). Any financial stress makes China a more important friend than India so Russia may throw India under the bus if the stress was significant enough.

    I guess that depends on how much China wants Russia to work with Pakistan against Indian interests, a stretch I will acknowledge.


    Agree, and certainly India is hoping this status quo remains in place.

    I would add Pakistan's intelligence service and corruption. The latter is also a problem for India as well.
     
  9. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    True but there is no reason why a Russian/Chinese alliance would worry India or move it closer to the West. Russia can have a close or better relationship with China whilst still maintaining good ties with India. A lot will also depend on India and China. Both have differences but relations over time could improve.

    TRUMP’S RECKLESS HOSTILITY UNITES CHINA AND RUSSIA

    'Good work Mr. President! You have now managed to lay the groundwork for a grand Chinese-Russian alliance. The objective of intelligent diplomacy is to divide one’s foes, not to unite them'

    'On a grander scale, Beijing and Moscow were signaling their new ‘entente cordiale’ designed to counter-balance the reckless military ambitions of the Trump administration, which has been rumbling about a wider war in Syria and intervention in, of all places, Venezuela. The feeling in Russia and China is that the Trump White House is drunk with power and unable to understand the consequences of its military actions, a fact underlined by recent alarming exposés about it.'
     
  10. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Well with the Trump factor in play, WTF knows how things will work out. If you had asked me a year ago what the average Canadian would have thought about a NAFTA termination I would have said massive panic. Now, some distress, but Trump is extremely disliked here so if NAFTA goes, screw it is the likely attitude now. He may end up being the worst thing for US defence contractors as many Canadians will favour Euro alternatives even though this would not be beneficial to Canadian defence requirements.