NZDF General discussion thread

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Wouldn't wish it on anyone..


They must have a lot more confidence in America than some Americans I talk to. There is a real possibility that the US becomes effectively ungovernable mess or otherwise preoccupied with its own internal issues. There are plenty of scenarios where even if they are willing, that they aren't able. Even a global power needs to focus its resources elsewhere at times, and sometimes that can even lead to trying to usurp/redirect other nations resources and capabilities, as an ally against that nations own interests.

There are also a lot of scenarios at play beyond traditional ideas of sovereignty and SLOC. China's play is global, and focuses on weak targets. The world is no longer a benign environment and is likely heading towards a less stable future. Even if China(+Russia) was out of the picture, the magic crystal 8 ball isn't exactly predicting easy times ahead.
Yes, I think the case can be made that an unstable USA is Canada’s biggest threat. I think the next 2-4 years will be an indicator of where things are going.
 

Vivendi

Member
I feel that most countries in Western Europe are having similar issues as NZ and Canada... unfortunately. It seems it's very difficult for many people in these countries to comprehend the increased global threat level, and the implications. Unfortunately the majority will probably not "wake up" to the realities until it's too late.

NZ should in my opinion align more with the AUKUS countries, ASAP.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I feel that most countries in Western Europe are having similar issues as NZ and Canada... unfortunately. It seems it's very difficult for many people in these countries to comprehend the increased global threat level, and the implications. Unfortunately the majority will probably not "wake up" to the realities until it's too late.

NZ should in my opinion align more with the AUKUS countries, ASAP.
Canada and Western Europe also have accumulated massive debt which further restricts defence spending options.
 

Stuart M

New Member
Canada and Western Europe also have accumulated massive debt which further restricts defence spending options.
And yet NZ has developed a healthy appetite for controlled and relatively disciplined spending and is more than capable of spending more on defence without it wrecking the budget or economy, so i'm not convinced that debt is an excuse for lack of defence spending, even after the earthquakes and covid. NZs issue is pure ideology or not caring depending on the govt of the day.

Tldr, NZ are ideological tight arses, Canada and Western Europe are out of control spendthrifts.
 

Kiwigov

Member
I think a key risk (yet to be grasped by NZ and Canada publics) is the sheer scale of any naval conflict between USA/Aust/Japan and China (re Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan - pick your flashpoint). By definition it won't be 'contained' to some slice of ocean, as any base and infrastructure is fair game for a hypersonic missile. For example, a RAN vessel docks at Devonport (or a USN vessel at Vancouver) - rapid elimination of the location. And of course all Pacific shipping would be open to submarine interdiction, leading to an effective blockade of NZ. Convoys would simply invite an immediate strike
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I have never been on an operating submarine
How good are the periscope optics WRT telling the difference between an oz flag or a kiwi flag flapping off an anzac
Not certain given what can impact the ability to confirm a vessel's nationality visually. Also IMO rather irrelevant given the number of potential BVR anti-shipping weapons available which would likely see use in a conflict. Standoff AShM launched from within radar detection range, but well before someone would likely be able to establish a definitive ID of the target, is likely to be fairly 'normal'. This might in turn lead to a "free fire" conflict zone developing, either formally or informally, where anything detected within a specific area is considered a legitimate target, while outside of that area everything is safe. In many respects something like the Total Exclusion Zone declared by the British gov't during the Falklands War could more common.
 

htbrst

Active Member
Amongst an Australian article posted yesterday about a Chinese spy ship hanging out over there back in August was this snippet:

Defence sources told The Daily Telegraph the ship entered Australia’s 200km exclusive economic zone off the coast of Darwin in August before slowly heading south, hugging the coastline. It reportedly monitored a number of crucial military training areas as it travelled as far south as Sydney, before heading across the Tasman towards New Zealand.
Does anyone know if it arrived or has seen any info about it? Perhaps the media could make some enquiries about it given the USN destroyer over here is actually invited and this one -assuming it headed this way - was probably not.

 
Amongst an Australian article posted yesterday about a Chinese spy ship hanging out over there back in August was this snippet:



Does anyone know if it arrived or has seen any info about it? Perhaps the media could make some enquiries about it given the USN destroyer over here is actually invited and this one -assuming it headed this way - was probably not.

Is this the sort of thing that the new Triton or even the P8s would keep an eye on at regular intervals or would we just treat it with total ignore to avoid giving the PRC/PLA-N the satisfaction of thinking that they are succeeding in annoying us
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Is this the sort of thing that the new Triton or even the P8s would keep an eye on at regular intervals or would we just treat it with total ignore to avoid giving the PRC/PLA-N the satisfaction of thinking that they are succeeding in annoying us
Or as an alternative response, have a gov't-owned "fishing troller" that has a few extra T/R modules and directional antennae installed, and have them routinely broadcast computer-generated garbage on different frequencies, sometimes directly at the vessel being shadowed...
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know if it arrived or has seen any info about it? Perhaps the media could make some enquiries about it given the USN destroyer over here is actually invited and this one -assuming it headed this way - was probably not.


well there yah go...
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

well there yah go...
I saw the 1News story on Facebook and the comments were quite entertaining Jacinderella was coming in for a bit of stick, as did John Key. Even Crusher Collins got a mention along with Uncle Helen. The general tone seemed to be that the PRC should mind it's own business and that NZ wasn't able to stop them doing what they wanted. Some fools even suggested that they could start building islands off our coast, but that's not really feasible because of water depth on either coast, and the maritime climate above and below water.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
I saw the 1News story on Facebook and the comments were quite entertaining Jacinderella was coming in for a bit of stick, as did John Key. Even Crusher Collins got a mention along with Uncle Helen. The general tone seemed to be that the PRC should mind it's own business and that NZ wasn't able to stop them doing what they wanted. Some fools even suggested that they could start building islands off our coast, but that's not really feasible because of water depth on either coast, and the maritime climate above and below water.
I reading them now... most are having a bit of a laugh... :D
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Daily mail had a nice little map.. Not sure how accurate it is. Seems based of the Daily Telegraph which originally broke the story.


1637978343391.png

Normally you would like some sort of ship tailing them, just keeping and eye on them and monitoring them. They are a long way from home, they could have mechanical problems or get some floatsam stuck in a prop or something. Its doesn't seem like they came particularly close to Australia, they seem more interested in longer range capabilities, well OTH.

Great opportunity to map their vessel, acoustically, electronically. I would avoid using actual combat systems and ships, like Australia is following it with a AOR. Use leased civilian aircraft to overfly it.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Daily mail had a nice little map.. Not sure how accurate it is. Seems based of the Daily Telegraph which originally broke the story.


View attachment 48675

Normally you would like some sort of ship tailing them, just keeping and eye on them and monitoring them. They are a long way from home, they could have mechanical problems or get some floatsam stuck in a prop or something. Its doesn't seem like they came particularly close to Australia, they seem more interested in longer range capabilities, well OTH.

Great opportunity to map their vessel, acoustically, electronically. I would avoid using actual combat systems and ships, like Australia is following it with a AOR. Use leased civilian aircraft to overfly it.
Interesting that they appeared to be heading towards Foveaux Strait or to steer south of Stewart Island. The ESA space communications facility is at Awarua, between Invercargill and Bluff, and the only other facility that will interest them is the space radar in Central Otago which is probably 150 - 200km NE of Invercargill as the kea flies.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting that they appeared to be heading towards Foveaux Strait or to steer south of Stewart Island. The ESA space communications facility is at Awarua, between Invercargill and Bluff, and the only other facility that will interest them is the space radar in Central Otago which is probably 150 - 200km NE of Invercargill as the kea flies.
Bingo.

Nothing like building a whole bunch of new orbital weapons, new ICBM launch sites and the actively driving pretty much straight down to check out some space radars and space coms.. Knocking out/disrupting the southern space radars would be a neat capability for the Chinese. Even just mapping them, so you have a good idea of what they can and can't see. Jamming power levels/frequency etc.
 

Flexson

Member
Daily mail had a nice little map.. Not sure how accurate it is. Seems based of the Daily Telegraph which originally broke the story.


View attachment 48675

Normally you would like some sort of ship tailing them, just keeping and eye on them and monitoring them. They are a long way from home, they could have mechanical problems or get some floatsam stuck in a prop or something. Its doesn't seem like they came particularly close to Australia, they seem more interested in longer range capabilities, well OTH.

Great opportunity to map their vessel, acoustically, electronically. I would avoid using actual combat systems and ships, like Australia is following it with a AOR. Use leased civilian aircraft to overfly it.
The red line is accurate in the same sense as if I drew a dead straight line on a map from Sydney to Perth and said that's the route I took to drive my car there.
Supply was the first ship to shadow; it was not the last.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
If she left China in August and is still underway, a long way from support and presumably not refueled or reprovisioned at the end of November that is impressive endurance. Do we know of any port visits?
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
If she left China in August and is still underway, a long way from support and presumably not refueled or reprovisioned at the end of November that is impressive endurance. Do we know of any port visits?
Maybe they store rice like the RN stores potatoes
I was in HMS Achilles on AA guard duty off Belize during the troubles with Guatemala.
The SeaCat magazine was emptied in order to store spuds, in all we loaded 6 x Tons of them before leaving for the West Indies and replenished the stocks once more after leaving Bermuda!
I think we figured throwing spuds was probably far more lethal than SeaCat anyway.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
Maybe they store rice like the RN stores potatoes
I was in HMS Achilles on AA guard duty off Belize during the troubles with Guatemala.
The SeaCat magazine was emptied in order to store spuds, in all we loaded 6 x Tons of them before leaving for the West Indies and replenished the stocks once more after leaving Bermuda!
I think we figured throwing spuds was probably far more lethal than SeaCat anyway.
Bowl of rice a day... maybe two for the captain... three for the CCP Overlord... small crew... cruise at 12 knots 3 when something interesting pipes up on those sensors... no ammo... just fuel and rice in the stores... ;-/ lol
 
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