Nagorniy Karabakh

[Feanor]

Given Azerbaijan's recent success in Nagorno-Karabakh, are there chances that they will try to do more, perhaps to take over the landbridge to Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic?

There is certainly a chance. But it would be a problematic move. Pashinyan has been trying to move Armenia away from Russia for a while, but doing so was basically impossible while the NKR was a thing. Now that it's gone, he will try to make those moves. Of course this remains difficult considering the Turks are backing the Azeris. So it's a bit of a mess. There's Azeri interests, Armenian interests, US interests, Turkish interests, and Russian interests, all tied into this mess.

 

[koxinga]

Well, Armenia's Parliament ratified the Rome Statute recently, so that paves the way for Western realignment.

Armenia to accept International Court's remit, vexing Moscow

Armenia's parliament ratified the founding statute of the International Criminal Court on Tuesday, subjecting itself to the jurisdiction of the court in The Hague and vexing Russia, whose president the ICC wants to arrest.

www.reuters.com

The Iranians is opposed to further Azeri moves. They share a border precisely on the land bridge between Armenia and NKR. But how far would go to prevent an Azeri attempt on it?

Iran Says It Opposes 'Geopolitical Changes' in Caucasus

Iran says it opposes any 'geopolitical changes' in the Caucasus, where it has long been angered over Azerbaijan's desire to set up a transport link along Armenian-Iranian border

www.voanews.com

 

[ngatimozart]

The President of Azerbaijan has withdrawn from talks in with the Armenian President being held Europe because Turkey was refused inclusion by both France and Germany.

 

[T.C.P]

The President of Azerbaijan has withdrawn from talks in with the Armenian President being held Europe because Turkey was refused inclusion by both France and Germany.

cant blame him, Armenia gets bring thier big brothers but Azerbeijan does not. What exactly does Azerbeijan get from attending this meeting, They already know they have Europe hooked thanks to their oil/gas.

Theircould not havebeen a better time for Aerbeijan to move then now. Russia all tied up, Iran weakened by internal strife, Europe covered by their fossil fuels, they will never be in a better position internationally then right now.

 

[Feanor]

Russian peace keepers appear to be exiting Nagorniy Karabakh. The ultimate outcome here is clear, the history of Armenian presence there is coming to an end.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[swerve]

Well, the Russian presence ceased to have any point. Russia stopped acting as Armenia's protector, abandoning Armenia to whatever Azerbaijan wanted to do. Complaining about Armenia desperately seeking other protectors is disingenuous at least, & hypocritical could be a better description. Russia's obviously written off Armenia.

 

[Feanor]

Well, the Russian presence ceased to have any point.

This is accurate. Azerbaijan has won their territory back. Let's hope it ends here.

Russia stopped acting as Armenia's protector, abandoning Armenia to whatever Azerbaijan wanted to do. Complaining about Armenia desperately seeking other protectors is disingenuous at least, & hypocritical could be a better description. Russia's obviously written off Armenia.

I don't think this is correct. I think Pashinyan horribly mismanaged the situation on purpose. Remember, Armenia didn't exactly mobilize in response to the Azeri invasion. They fought but not very well. They also spent money in silly ways on things like ex-Jordanian OSA SAMs that were functionally useless against modern threats. Meanwhile they were badly short on UAVs, EW kit, and air defenses. They bought Russian Su-30SMs but effectively didn't use them. I suspect that this was intentional. I suspect Pashinyan and Co. wanted to move Armenia towards closer relations with the west, but couldn't do that as long as the NKR was there. So they talked the talk but meanwhile quietly sabotaged any real effort to put up a fight. And there were wakeup calls prior to the war, smaller skirmishes where the advantages of Azeri loitering munitions and UAVs were clear. I believe Pashinyan got what he was aiming for.

 

[swerve]

So, you think he deliberately engineered a defeat in the hope of getting western backers to replace Russia? Was Russia such a bad protector? It seems like a huge gamble. There was no guarantee of effective western help, & no sign of it materialising so far, just words without substance.

Azerbaijan has won their territory back. Let's hope it ends here.

Completely agree. Let us hope.

 

[Feanor]

So, you think he deliberately engineered a defeat in the hope of getting western backers to replace Russia? Was Russia such a bad protector? It seems like a huge gamble. There was no guarantee of effective western help, & no sign of it materialising so far, just words without substance.

I suspect he had ties that predated his entrance into office. He came into office and promptly started bringing in western NGOs, and building ties with the EU and NATO. I don't think the issue is whether Russia was a good protector or a bad one. I think he is a figure comparable (though obviously not the same as) to Saakashvili. He's a populist with western backing.

To be honest, I don't even know that he had to engineer a defeat. He just had to not prepare for the war. Even with robust preparation, considerable expenditures, and a major mobilization, Armenia was still in a bad spot. Without those, it was hopeless. The demographic and economic dynamics have taken Armenia and Azerbaijan very far apart over the past 30 years. There are more people in Azerbaijan today then there are in Belarus. At independence, Azerbaijan had about twice the population. Today it has nearly 4 times, and this will continue. Armenia could hope to hang on to the NKR but it was going to be hard.

 

[KipPotapych]

There is something about British Foreign Secretaries, but I am not sure what it is. Ignorance? Obtuseness? I don’t know, but they sure like to project exactly that quite often.

It’s a gaffe a day with David Lammy. Now the Foreign Secretary has come under fire after he hailed Azerbaijan for being able to ‘liberate’ territory – in an ongoing conflict widely viewed as an ethnic cleansing operation – in a recent Substack post. Lammy took to his blog to express his unsolicited musings about the Nagorno-Karabakh region, writing:

The states of Central Asia look increasingly east and south. Azerbaijan has been able to liberate territory it lost in the early 1990s. Georgia and Moldova are engaging with Nato and [the] EU.

Crikey. Talk about bad wording, eh? Mr S would remind readers that Azerbaijan has been locked in an ethnic and territorial conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region – with concern growing after violence restarted in the region last year. Harrowing clips of Armenian civilians being beheaded have spread online, exposing the extent of the violence being carried out by Azerbaijani forces – making the Foreign Secretary’s choice of language all the more baffling.

'Ignorant' Lammy urged to retract Azerbaijan remarks

It’s a gaffe a day with David Lammy. Now the Foreign Secretary has come under fire after he hailed Azerbaijan for being able to ‘liberate’ territory – in an ongoing conflict widely viewed as an ethnic cleansing operation – in a recent Substack post. Lammy took to his blog to express his...

www.spectator.co.uk

In their defence, the UK is not the only one that is “cozying up” to Azerbaijan. I guess when times are tough…

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In their defence, the UK is not the only one that is “cozying up” to Azerbaijan. I guess when times are tough…

Cozying up to Azerbaijan only makes sense if you're seeking to counter Iran. Otherwise I see no point. Connections with Russia, dictatorship - those are serious hazards.
Israel seems comfortable enough with that trade. Iran's its main adversary after all.
For the UK, not so much.

Countering Iran makes a lot of sense for the UK, but then this idea seems to be thrown out the window with how hostile the current government is to Israel - the west's main opposition to Iran. To me it seems the UK is mainly adversarial to Israel in the public domain, much less so in practice. But public opposition to Israel is a symptom of a growing population sympathetic to the IRGC, which in turn means that opposition to Iran may not be feasible in the long term if current trends continue.

Overall I find this amusing. Lack of clarity is something I definitely expected of Lammy.

 

[KipPotapych]

For those interested in the topic at hand, a recent (January 7) extensive interview President Aliev gave to various outlets went kind of unnoticed and between the lines. The whole thing is worth a read for the interested people (it’s a long and not overly exciting read, I should warn, haha, but are they ever?). I want to quote this specific part here - I wouldn’t call it exactly new, but Aliev’s tone and “openness” is rather quite staggering. To note, the interview was mixed in Azerbaijani, Russian, and English.

Arming Armenia will only lead to new tensions, and we do not want that. We want peace. We want to close the chapter on war. However, we see that both Armenia itself and its new patrons do not share this goal. They are driven by ideas of revenge, and Armenia has become a source of threat to the region. The independent Armenian state is, in fact, a fascist state. For nearly 30 years, the country has been led by proponents of fascist ideology, and they have shaped the nation in this image. Consider the racist and fascist statements made by Armenia's first president - they are as ugly as they are dangerous. He portrays ethnic cleansing as something to be proud of, boasting about the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from their historical ancestral lands. This video, has most recently emerged. But, of course, this was already known in Armenia. Armenia's allies and supporters, too, were aware and shared these views. The 30-year occupation policy against us is not merely the result of Armenia's actions, but a joint effort of Islamophobic, Azerbaijanophobic, racist, and xenophobic circles, as well as representatives of foreign countries in solidarity with them. We live as neighbors to such a fascist state, and the threat of fascism persists. Therefore, fascism must be eradicated. Either the Armenian leadership will destroy it, or we will. We have no other choice.

[…]

As Azerbaijan, we are not a source of danger for them. We seek peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus. They should not stand in our way. They should not act as a geographical barrier between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The Zangezur corridor must and will be opened. The sooner they understand this, the better. Why should we have to go to Nakhchivan, an integral part of Azerbaijan, through indirect routes? We should have a direct connection, and this connection does not challenge Armenia's sovereignty. Simply put, they must fulfill the provisions of the 10 November Statement. Everything is clearly outlined there. We have shown patience for over four years. For more than four years, we have wanted this to be resolved through negotiations. How long must we wait, and why should we wait? In other words, they should consider all of this. I have said before that they should not frustrate us and understand that we are the ones who have the final say here. Azerbaijan is the leading economy, the leading military power, and the leading state in the South Caucasus. In today’s world, the power factor is paramount, and no one should forget this.

The “new patrons” are, of course, the USA, the EU, and France in particular. He was quite open in expressing his opinion about them as well.

Edit: Almost forgot the link to the source for further reading:

Ilham Aliyev was interviewed by local TV channels » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic

president.az

 

[Feanor]

Cozying up to Azerbaijan only makes sense if you're seeking to counter Iran. Otherwise I see no point. Connections with Russia, dictatorship - those are serious hazards.
Israel seems comfortable enough with that trade. Iran's its main adversary after all.
For the UK, not so much.

Countering Iran makes a lot of sense for the UK, but then this idea seems to be thrown out the window with how hostile the current government is to Israel - the west's main opposition to Iran. To me it seems the UK is mainly adversarial to Israel in the public domain, much less so in practice. But public opposition to Israel is a symptom of a growing population sympathetic to the IRGC, which in turn means that opposition to Iran may not be feasible in the long term if current trends continue.

Overall I find this amusing. Lack of clarity is something I definitely expected of Lammy.

This is a very late response, but there is another reason to cozy up to Azerbaijan, and that's to keep them firmly apart from Russia. Aliev has much more in common with Putin then with a western style democracy. If western style democracy marches triumphant, Aliev has no future.