operational sustainment never comes as number one consideration in Indonesia defence procurement.
Yes, that's why I say in my posts, putting F-16 Blk 70 as my hope.
I am curious and want your take; how much does timeline / schedule figure into the Indonesia considerations, other than budget, politics?
My assessment 50:50. They need fasts but also there's Political play out (both local and geopolitical consideration). This is why they put "interim" fighters budget which being thought going to 12 ex Qatar Mirage 2K. Now again 'rumours' being hold by Frenchie. Seems if it is true Frenchie wants the budget being allocated perhaps toward some 2nd hand Rafale.
The budget being prepared around USD 700-800 mio. If this's enough for 6 second hand Rafale, then it is better then 12 second hand Mirage 2K (even tough ex Qatar ones being talk in very good condition and relative low flying hours for their age).
Is TNI-AU in need for more planes or replacement? Where does it sit in the ORBAT?
Current TNI-AU Fighters ORBAT is 8 sq their plan is 11 sq. From 8 sq at least 1 sq already defunct (F-5) and another 3 sq (Flankers and Hawk 200) seems need to be replaced by end of this decades (as no plan to upgrade them like the F-16). Thus they need to replace 4 sq plus add another 3.
Latest TNI-AU presentation shown future with F-15, F-16, Rafale and KF-21. As for me as by stander enthusiast, just hope they drop F-15 and focus on Rafale, F-16 and KF-21. KF-21 despite still troublesome funding on Investment (of production license facilities) and RnD dues, seems still got Political support to continue.