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CANADA / NATO and 2% of GDP Budget

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by Novascotiaboy, Nov 9, 2016.

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  1. Novascotiaboy

    Novascotiaboy Member

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    With last nights election one of the comments during the run up involved the president elects statement that Allies need to take more of a stake in protecting themselves.

    For Canada, that means a significant increase to defence expenditure as we hover around 1% of GDP, half the NATO target.

    Even a half a percent increase would have a significant impact on the procurement of equipment.

    What do readers think will happen?

    Nothing, something?

    Will the new president elect enact his promise of pulling back from the NATO Collective?
     
  2. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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    It will be interesting to see what junior does with respect to meeting the 2% GDP requirement along with several other NATO members. I guess the other factor will be how much BS does Trump's various promises contain? If he is serious about trashing NAFTA and other trade agreements then 2% of our future GDP might not be much different from our 1.x% of our current GDP!
     
  3. GermanHerman

    GermanHerman Member

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    Well, it's incredible hard to determin what of his wide range of proposals the new president elect will actualy be trying to implement once in office.

    I think the reduction of spending on NATO might be in the more reasonable range as it would have a direct positiv effect on the budgets for other things and as is the USA are pretty much capable to hold the rest of NATO somewhat hostage.

    What are they gonna do? Leave NATO?

    The other question is how many members will be able to adapt and step up / be able to increase spending as we talk about a lot of money here. NATO would definitly have some troubles I can't see the eastern member states to be too happy about this but as I said, it's too early to make any predictions how all of this is going to play out but I expect some resistance from the congress etc. since the republicans never fully stood behind him.

    I think this election leavs us all with a lot of questionsmark on all kind of questions. How will the US continue their engagement in Syria? What is with Ukraine and how will russia react to all of this?
     
  4. Novascotiaboy

    Novascotiaboy Member

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    The percentage spending of the Baltic members is over and above because of the direct threat from Russian forces across their borders. Black Sea member nations are those less able to meet financial commitments.

    It was interesting to note the arrival of the Kuzenetzov battle fleet arriving off of Syria on election day.

    As to my own thoughts on Canada's financial commitment to 2% it will only happen if the US pulls away from NATO or if things go for a @#$%.

    A look at the difference in defence forces is painfully visible when one compares Canada vs Australia. Even with their pains with Collins, Tiger and Armindale patrol boats Canada is decades behind in acquisitions.
     
  5. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    That's always a possibility however remote. A lot will now depend on how good the advice is that Trump gets from his advisers and whether or not he chooses to listen to them. Interesting times ahead the say the least.
     
  6. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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    If the US pulls away from NATO I would think there would be less incentive for Canada to try for 2% unless the Euros go up to 2% themselves and use the recent free trade agreement as leverage for Canada to match the figure. If $hit starts to happen, it may be too late for Canadian investment to make a difference.

    This is more or less correct but Australian defence needs reflect their geographical reality and the electorate understands this, hence the broader support for national defence as compared to Canada.
     
  7. GermanHerman

    GermanHerman Member

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    Well that possibility is pretty limited by the actual capabilities and interests of the different nations.

    One could say that Canada is pretty far away from Ukraine but one could also say they are pretty close to the arctic and the interest in the potential ressources that could be claimed by bordering states have already led to some tensions.

    I don't see a Nation throwing away the immense detterence a NATO membership is to foreign powers that easily.
     
  8. vonnoobie

    vonnoobie Member

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    There would have to be a massive shift in Canadian politics for a 2% target to be looked at as it would require support from both parties.

    I don't see the % of the GDP increasing so the Canadian government really need to build there forces up around how much they are willing to spend. At the moment they have a force larger then Australia being funded at 2/3rds that of the ADF. If they aren't willing to increase the budget then they will have to scrap around 1/3rd of the force to free up funds needed to outfit and maintain a modern force.
     
  9. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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    Junior is currently running a deficit approaching $30 billion CDN while only spending a little over 1% of GDP on defence so an increase for defence is zero. In fact, Junior is such a C-F I fear that either the RCN or RCAF will take a major hit, likely the the latter.
     
  10. cdxbow

    cdxbow Member

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    True, the 'inner circles' ability to manage his impulsiveness and tendency to lash out will be critical. For Canada it could be a real opportunity to pick up talent, not just individuals but companies should the domestic US environment deteriorate.
     
  11. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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    Ontario and Quebec are both horribly run provinces so don't expect a rush by disillusioned Americans to either of these places and even less so for companies. Vancouver's a great location for many perhaps but a basic house starts at 1 million plus. If Trump doesn't mellow a bit then maybe an exodus is possible.
     
  12. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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  13. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    That threat could very well work and no point going to the WTO because Trump is talking about pulling out of that.
     
  14. Bolverik

    Bolverik New Member

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    As of 2015
    Latvia - 1.1
    Lithuania - 1.1
    Estonia - 2.0

    :)
     
  15. vldbzh

    vldbzh New Member

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    Military budgets for 2017 in Latvia and Lithuania are 1.8 % already. Progress is very fast. Nevertheless It wold be better for them to have at least 3%.
     
  16. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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    Two percent of GDP would be nice for Canada but it is about as likely as three percent for the Baltic states, a probably approaching zero.
     
  17. vldbzh

    vldbzh New Member

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    Something should be done about military budgets of Canada and many other countries of NATO. I think 2% must be compulsory. If a country has less than 2% it pays balance to the countries that have military budgets more than 2%. If the country does not pay the balance, the procedure of expulsion from NATO should be started. :mad:
     
  18. Feanor

    Feanor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Under your bed. No seriously, take a look.
    Putin would love that. :D

    Half of NATO would be gone in a few short years.
     
  19. John Fedup

    John Fedup Active Member

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  20. vldbzh

    vldbzh New Member

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    :p3 So Putin is very disappointed by NATO members who does not have functional armed forces and do not want to spend anything on it and completely rely on military force of big USA. It seems Putin loves NATO in deeps of his soul.
    "Ms. Merkel said Friday that Germany is committed to meeting the target within a decade."- from the Canadian newspaper :(