Future of the French/Russian Mistral LHDs

JohnT

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Earlier this week the French government announced its suspension of the Mistral sale to Russia. I'd be interested to hear what you guys think the ships' future will be in the event the deal is permanently cancelled. Given the Marine Nationale already operates three Mistrals it seems unlikely they'll end up in the French fleet. Assuming they are put on the market then which countries do you see as potential buyers? Or could they be jointly purchased and operated by NATO?
 
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Feanor

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What I read was that they're putting off delivery of the Mistrals, until October. The delivery date of the Mistrals was already October. So there is no practical significance. Only political.
 

JohnT

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What I read was that they're putting off delivery of the Mistrals, until October. The delivery date of the Mistrals was already October. So there is no practical significance. Only political.
From what I understand the suspension is going to be reviewed in October or November. There's been talk that the contract may be cancelled and that Russia might seek compensation in an international court, which would at least allow Putin to save face a bit.
 

gf0012-aust

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Earlier this week the French government announced that it is suspending the Mistral sale to Russia. I'd be interested to hear what you guys think the ships' future will be in the event that the deal is permanently cancelled. Given that the Marine Nationale already operates three Mistrals it seems unlikely that they'll end up in the French fleet. Assuming that they are put on the market then which countries do you see as potential buyers?
There is discussion about NATO buying them and using them for the new REF or JEF

They can spread the $$ load over 28 countries and lower the hurt cost - and that gives the French an "out"

The French argument that they are under contract and so they can't is absolute nonsense. The French have broken contracts before (twice that I know of)
 

JohnT

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There is discussion about NATO buying them and using them for the new REF or JEF

They can spread the $$ load over 28 countries and lower the hurt cost - and that gives the French an "out"

The French argument that they are under contract and so they can't is absolute nonsense. The French have broken contracts before (twice that I know of)
I'm not sure that individual NATO states would be prepared to make such a huge investment in a shared asset. As of yet only seven countries have joined the JEF, so if the Mistrals are purchased it's possible they might only be paid for by members of that group. However if the political hurdles could be overcome then I can imagine the ships forming the core of the naval component of JEF, and taking part in international coalition task forces.
 

gf0012-aust

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I'm not sure that individual NATO states would be prepared to make such a huge investment in a shared asset. As of yet only seven countries have joined the JEF, so if the Mistrals are purchased it's possible they might only be paid for by members of that group. However if the political hurdles could be overcome then I can imagine the ships forming the core of the naval component of JEF, and taking part in international coalition task forces.
the chat is about all of NATO using them as part of the REF and/or JEF but that probably only 4 countries really sharing the cost (proportionate)
 

t68

Well-Known Member
the chat is about all of NATO using them as part of the REF and/or JEF but that probably only 4 countries really sharing the cost (proportionate)
would it really work having no particular sovereign owner be fraught with difficulties id imagine.
 

t68

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Pity the UK is not in a position to pick these up as a replacement for Ocean for2x Mistral along with 2x Albion class LPD, which also frees up the Queen Elizabeth carriers for its core role of strike carrier
 

JohnT

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Pity the UK is not in a position to pick these up as a replacement for Ocean for2x Mistral along with 2x Albion class LPD, which also frees up the Queen Elizabeth carriers for its core role of strike carrier
Given that the UK has just announced that it will operate PoW as part of an increase in NATO spending it's not completely insane. With Ocean decommissioning in a couple of years it would actually make sense. However, I think the the main obstacle to this is the Royal Navy's current lack of manpower to operate the ships.
 

hauritz

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France were originally planning for 4 Mistrals.

I would have thought that Canada might be a little bit interested. Singapore have expressed some interest in a acquiring a vessel of that type.

A real longshot would be NZ buying one to replace the troubled Canterbury ... but the price would have to really good for that to happen.
 

OPSSG

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I would have thought that Canada might be a little bit interested. Singapore have expressed some interest in a acquiring a vessel of that type.
Please leave Singapore out of this discussion as ST Marine is likely to build the forthcoming Joint Multi-Mission Ship or JMMS (whose design will complement the existing capabilities of the Endurance Class LPDs). IMO, there is no credible news source that suggest that Singapore will acquire a Mistral class given its limitations in meeting the SAF's future mission sets. In particular, I note that this class does not meet the SAF's needs for the forthcoming aviation centric JMMS. Please provide sources, if you want to continue this avenue of discussion, so that the sources can be debunked.

Singapore is sending pilots to Italy for training. Recently, five earned their wings there. While Singapore is a buyer of French naval technology and has strong defence science ties with the French (Singapore and France have been collaborating in defence research and development under the Supelec, ONERA, NUS, DSO Research Alliance (SONDRA) for the last 10 years), Singapore also works with the Italians and are very impressed by the Italian approach to ship design.

France’s surprise suspension of the sale of a Mistral-class helicopter carrier to Russia is seen as a delaying yet diplomatic move to buy time on a troubled arms deal and ease pressure on French President François Hollande. The delicate French repositioning - which is not a cancellation - Hollande’s “on hold” decision came on the eve of the two-day NATO summit. For details see this 6 Sept 2014, DefenseNews article: French Mistral Sale Strategy: Buy Time To Maneuver. Now that the deal is on hold, France will reap the financial, economic and reputational consequences. A cancellation result in Russian litigation for repayment of funds and damage the prospects of future deals.

General note to all but directed as no one specifically: If this thread goes down the road of a fantasy 'what if', it will be closed (which has been a problem in some other threads).
 
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Seaforth

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There is discussion about NATO buying them and using them for the new REF or JEF
Up to 40% of the ship (including structural componenents) has been supplied by Russia.

There will likely be many parts that are owned by Russia and not the French yard.

If this is the case then the yard can only sell the ship to someone else either with Russia's permission or by first removing all the Russian owned components.

No chance of getting Russia's permission IMO, and who wants a gutted ship?

Cheers!
 

Feanor

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Up to 40% of the ship (including structural componenents) has been supplied by Russia.

There will likely be many parts that are owned by Russia and not the French yard.

If this is the case then the yard can only sell the ship to someone else either with Russia's permission or by first removing all the Russian owned components.

No chance of getting Russia's permission IMO, and who wants a gutted ship?

Cheers!
It wouldn't be a gutted ship, it would be hull sections that would have to be removed. I'm not sure who would pay the cost of removing them, or whether France would even follow the legal side of things. France would also have to return the money that was paid for the ships, and pay the penalty for breaking the contract. I see this as rather unlikely. It's much more likely that the ships get sold to someone else, Russia gets their money back, and that's the end of it. Though I suppose it's possible that all the penalties get paid, including the cost of the Russian ship sections.
 

gf0012-aust

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Up to 40% of the ship (including structural componenents) has been supplied by Russia.

There will likely be many parts that are owned by Russia and not the French yard.

If this is the case then the yard can only sell the ship to someone else either with Russia's permission or by first removing all the Russian owned components.

No chance of getting Russia's permission IMO, and who wants a gutted ship?

Cheers!
there has been an alternative proposal - and that's to seize the ships for breaches of law and reparations for assets being illegally seized - but that is even more complicated as its about oligarchs suing the Russian State
 

JohnT

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there has been an alternative proposal - and that's to seize the ships for breaches of law and reparations for assets being illegally seized - but that is even more complicated as its about oligarchs suing the Russian State
That actually happened to Argentina a couple of years ago, one of their warships was repossessed while docked in Ghana. I think it's very unlikely the Russian made parts of the ship will be returned to Russia. For one thing they're welded to the rest of the ship, and in any case Russia would have no use for them, since it isn't capable of building the rest of a Mistral by itself.
 

RobWilliams

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Given that the UK has just announced that it will operate PoW as part of an increase in NATO spending it's not completely insane. With Ocean decommissioning in a couple of years it would actually make sense. However, I think the the main obstacle to this is the Royal Navy's current lack of manpower to operate the ships.
It is insane especially because of the recent POW news, it cant be argued that we don't have sufficient naval air capacity in the light of strict budgets. Our prime chance for more is when the Albions leave service which could be in the 2030-2040 timeframe.

Until then, that's what we're going to have, but we can't play the 'we're so hard done by' attitude anymore ;)
 

Ananda

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That actually happened to Argentina a couple of years ago, one of their warships was repossessed while docked in Ghana. I think it's very unlikely the Russian made parts of the ship will be returned to Russia. For one thing they're welded to the rest of the ship, and in any case Russia would have no use for them, since it isn't capable of building the rest of a Mistral by itself.
It's oversimplification saying that Russia has no ability building Mistral class ships on their own. Building their own version from the scratch is deemed less efficient considering French willingness at that time selling their design. Afterall this first two manufacture in French with parts from Russia and the other two option, where manufacture in Russia.

Are you really sure that by this time Russia has not have Mistrall design already ? For Nation that already build their own Carrier, it's bit degrading saying they do not have capabilities building something like Mistrall on their own..I think this issue has been discussed on the length in various forumd including this one. Please do differentiate between not capable, and business choice for more efficient way.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
It's much more likely that the ships get sold to someone else, Russia gets their money back, and that's the end of it. Though I suppose it's possible that all the penalties get paid, including the cost of the Russian ship sections.
The only party that could be paying this 2 Mistrall is Western Nation collectively (as part of Nato). I do not see at this moment individual Western nation willing to set asside part of their budget to pay for those Mistrall. If no one taken them, seems we are going to see the French released them to Russia, rather then paying the penalty. Whether after that French willing to continue provide support contracts, that's another matter. However if they did not provide support, then somehow I still Russia able to maintain them domestically.

French has been trying for sometime selling Mistral design to Asia, but from what I heard, it is more efficient getting modified ROK Dokdo design (as one example), then using French ones.
 

JohnT

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It's oversimplification saying that Russia has no ability building Mistral class ships on their own. Building their own version from the scratch is deemed less efficient considering French willingness at that time selling their design. Afterall this first two manufacture in French with parts from Russia and the other two option, where manufacture in Russia.

Are you really sure that by this time Russia has not have Mistrall design already ? For Nation that already build their own Carrier, it's bit degrading saying they do not have capabilities building something like Mistrall on their own..I think this issue has been discussed on the length in various forumd including this one. Please do differentiate between not capable, and business choice for more efficient way.
My point is that Russia hasn't built a warship of this size for thirty years. I'm sure if there had been the viable option of building all of the ships indigenously rather than having the first two built in France, Moscow would have taken it. Russia's main deficiency in building warships is a lack of the design and development expertise which have been lost over the last few decades, which is why they wanted the first ships to be built in France. However now that Russia has invaded Crimea perhaps it will build a couple of Mistrals in Sevastopol, using Ukrainian workers and with the experience gained from working on the first two Mistrals.
 
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