China Naval Modernization (Implications for US Naval Capabilities)

[SABRE]

Following is the report by US state department regarding the modernization of Chinese Navy aka PLAN. Even though such articals belong in Prof.forums I am taking liberty to post it here. If felt necessary the thread might be moved to Prof. Forum [Limiting it to only expert members & the administration (Admin & Mods)]


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China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Naval Capabilities
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US State Department
Thu, 1 Dec 2005, 00:33​

Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere about China’s military
modernization. The topic is an increasing factor in discussions over future required U.S. Navy capabilities. The issue for Congress addressed in this report is: 'How should China’s military modernization be factored into decisions about U.S. Navy programs?'

Several elements of China’s military modernization have potential implications for future required U.S. Navy capabilities. These include:

• Theater-range ballistic missiles (TBMs)
• Land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs)
• Anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs)
• Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs)
• Land-based aircraft
• Submarines
• Surface combatants
• Amphibious ships
• Naval mines
• Nuclear weapons
• and possibly high-power microwave (HPM) devices.

China’s naval limitations or weaknesses include:

• Capabilities for operatingin waters moredistant from China
• Joint operations
• C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance)
• Long-range surveillance and targeting systems
• Anti-air warfare (AAW)
• Antisubmarine warfare (ASW)
• Mine countermeasures(MCM)
• and Logistics

Observers believe a near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to fielda force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan and act as an anti-access force to deter U.S. intervention or delaythe arrival of U.S. forces, particularly naval and air forces, in such a conflict. Some analysts speculate that China may attain (or believe that it has attained) a capable maritime anti-access force, or elements of it, by about 2010. Other observers believe this will happen later.

Potential broader or longer-term goals of China’s naval modernization include asserting China’s regional military leadership and protecting China’s maritime territorial, economic, and energy interests.

China’s naval modernization has potential implications for required U.S. Navy capabilities in terms of preparingfor aconflict in theTaiwan Strait area, maintaining U.S. Navy presence and military influence in the Western Pacific, and countering Chinese ballistic missile submarines. Preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area could place a premium on the following: on-station or early-arriving Navy forces, capabilities for defeating China’smaritime anti-access forces, and capabilities for operating in an environment that could be characterized by information warfare and possibly electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the use of nuclear weapons.

Certain options are available for improving U.S. Navy capabilities by 2010; additional options, particularly in ship-building, can improve U.S. Navy capabilities in subsequent years. China’s naval modernization raises potential issues for Congress concerning the role of China in Department of Defense (DOD) and Navy planning; the size of the Navy; the Pacific Fleet’s share of the Navy; forward homeporting of Navy ships in the Western Pacific; the number of aircraft carriers, submarines, and ASW-capable platforms; Navymissile defense, air-warfare, AAW, ASW, and mine warfare programs; Navy computer network security; and EMP hardening of Navy systems. This report will be updated as events warrant.


The full report of 77 pages, in PDF format, is available here at DefenceTalk. If you are interested in the full report, follow the following link.

Link: http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_004328.php
Source: DT News

 

[Crusader2000]

Re: China Naval Modernization

All I can say is the arms race is on.........:unknown

 

[KGB]

Re: China Naval Modernization

Perhaps the India's leasing the Akulas from Russia has more to do with the PLAN than the Pakistani Navy. It seems that todays navies regard the submarine as the big budget version of asymetric warfare, the same way the Germans did in WW2 and the USSR did during the cold war.

KGB have you even read the artical ? The artical is refering to the implications of PLAN modernization over USNavy not India (or Indian Navy) or any other country (or any other Navy). Stay focus on topic, do not derail it. I am leaving this post intact as a messege to other posters. Next off topic post would be deleted.[/B]

 

[Crusader2000]

I wonder how much of the Chinese Navy's Modernization has to do with India's expanding Military? :gun

 

[hesidu]

I wonder how much of the Chinese Navy's Modernization has to do with India's expanding Military? :gun

China Navy's Modernization don't target at India. So don't be panic, man !.

 

[SABRE]

I wonder how much of the Chinese Navy's Modernization has to do with India's expanding Military? :gun

Crusader2000 what part of the messege I left under KGB's post you did not understand. Its not like I have writen some thing in Chinese, Hebrew, Aramic or Arabic. Its in english the Language it seems you very well know.

The Topic is based on implications of PLAN modernization on USNavy not Indian & you are attempting to divert the discussion. Let this be your 1st warning & remember 3 warnings & you are banned (thats the rule).

To me it seems like the 'topic' & the 'artical' is too much technical for the mind set of most of the members. I think it would be better to move it to Prof.Forums but I am giving it another shot. One more diversion & the thread would be out of regular member's hands.

 

[Crusader2000]

Crusader2000 what part of the messege I left under KGB's post you did not understand. Its not like I have writen some thing in Chinese, Hebrew, Aramic or Arabic. Its in english the Language it seems you very well know.

The Topic is based on implications of PLAN modernization on USNavy not Indian & you are attempting to divert the discussion. Let this be your 1st warning & remember 3 warnings & you are banned (thats the rule).

To me it seems like the 'topic' & the 'artical' is too much technical for the mind set of most of the members. I think it would be better to move it to Prof.Forums but I am giving it another shot. One more diversion & the thread would be out of regular member's hands.

The title is China Naval Moderization (Implications for the US Navy) While this article maybe from a US point of view. My point was that other factors may influence China's Modernization? Which, inturn leads back to the original posting. I would sincerely hope we have some latitude...................

 

[SABRE]

The title is China Naval Moderization (Implications for the US Navy) While this article maybe from a US point of view. My point was that other factors may influence China's Modernization? Which, inturn leads back to the original posting. I would sincerely hope we have some latitude...................

Crusader2000 you must understand that the rules of the DT forums do not allow out of context & off topic discussions. The thread is based on PLAN & USNavy, therefore the discussion must be based around the two.

We understand that you & many other members want to discuss the implications of PLAN modernization on other Navies but we can not allow you or any one else to do so. How ever you can open up another thread & discuss implications of PLAN modernization on different navies & take some elements from the above artical to make your point.

 

[Jeff Head]

Following is the report by US state department regarding the modernization of Chinese Navy aka PLAN. Even though such articals belong in Prof.forums I am taking liberty to post it here. If felt necessary the thread might be moved to Prof. Forum [Limiting it to only expert members & the administration (Admin & Mods)]​

For a pictorial representation of much of this...please take a look at the following site:

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

Hope its informative for anyone viewing the pages there. Took quite a bit of work.​

 

[Crusader2000]

Crusader2000 you must understand that the rules of the DT forums do not allow out of context & off topic discussions. The thread is based on PLAN & USNavy, therefore the discussion must be based around the two.

We understand that you & many other members want to discuss the implications of PLAN modernization on other Navies but we can not allow you or any one else to do so. How ever you can open up another thread & discuss implications of PLAN modernization on different navies & take some elements from the above artical to make your point.

Understood...........................

 

[tphuang]

China's immediate threats are USA and Japan. India is probably on its mind, but nothing more than that. All of China's naval expansion has pretty much being aimed at incuring damage on US pacific fleet.

 

[Crusader2000]

China's immediate threats are USA and Japan. India is probably on its mind, but nothing more than that. All of China's naval expansion has pretty much being aimed at incuring damage on US pacific fleet.

I would have to think that India is a little more than just on China's mind? Especially, with her closer Military ties with the US.

 

[webmaster]

Folks, we are all grown ups here, right? So, why take the thread into off topic land when it doesn't need to go there?

For Indians: No body is after India, this thread doesn't even concern India. It deals with CHINA Navy > Implication on > US Navy < see NO INDIA at all. And with the subject title clearly saying China navy's implication on US Navy, any five year old can figure out that this topic isn't about India, so why experiment? :unknown

Sorry if you feel like crying but sometimes we have to treat some adults as if they are kids to make them understand because it is very frustrating that multiple people have to point out same thing plus the title clearly mentioning but still people want to try their luck and want to drag the topic to what 'they' want to discuss.

Now, I don't want anyone to feel apologetic or feel sorry for us or themselves, all we need and request is that we stick to the topic which is? Guess? CHINA NAVY implications for US Navy. There is no 3rd navy involved, there is no middle man, US has not outsourced its Navy to India, yet. SO relax.

Please carry on!

 

[Crusader2000]

Sorry, but in my opinion your making any debate way to narrow. The title "China Naval Modernation (Implication for the USN) Well, the USN Stratergy always includes Regional and Global Allies. You can't just narrow such a broad topic to just two parts. (i.e. black and white) Your talking about a large and very complex subject. While I can surely understand why you need to keep members on topic. On the otherhand the whole point of the Forum is to have a meaningful discussion........................Personally, I will comply as long as I am a member. If, it continue to be so restrictive I may decide to go elsewhere..............

 

[webmaster]

Crusader, thanks for understanding. It is not being strict but only allowing people to keep the subject in perspective. I understand that people from all countries have high patriotic values and I respect that but they belong and should be discussed when such topic arise and they do. Which is completely fine.

I also know that you can't discuss black and white and there is always that gray matter which is also okay but we must not forgot the subject. How does China's implication on US navy effect India? Thats a good question and who could better answer but you or many other participants here?

Indian Navy is a potent force but that does not mean it needs to be discussed in any topic talking about Navy or even rival navies.

Regards

 

[PhillTaj]

China is building all this hardware, but they have yet to demonstrate any sort of effective supply of units in a blue water environment. It seems to me that China has caught the virus that all non western militaries have: Too much teeth, not enough support structure. It is the US politicans, and not the military itself, that is terrified of the "Red Threat".

I also see China's naval expansion as a way to protect its SLOC's. The country, like Japan and South Korea is totally dependent on sea borne energy. Not having the assets to ensure economic security is national suicide. With the 3 biggest Asian economies dependent on congested sea lanes, it leads to a pretty intense naval arms race.

However, thats a bit off topic. So what does this modernization mean for US Naval power? Personally, I believe that the USN does, and will enjoy utter superiority for decades to come. New developments, like the purposed family of manned and unmanned hypersonic systems, is light years ahead of anything in the wildest dreams of any PLAN staff officer in Beijing. China, if I remember correctly, cannot even manufacture its own gas turbine engines? SSN numbers will remain low until at least 2025, and domestic Chinese technology is still in the 1980 timeframe. I know that many individuals are worried about the recent rash of Chinese spying in the US, alot of it aimed at critical USN systems like AEGIS and new Sonar developments. Development of any stolen technology in China, however, is hampered by several key factors. Firstly, rigid state control hampers R&D efforts to a certain degree. Furthermore, the system, hurt by state planning, is chaotic and inefficient when it comes to advanced research. Lastly, historical precedence lends the rationale that all previous reverse engineered platforms have proven to be inefficient, expensive, and a "Brain Drain" on resources better spent on pure R&D. China does not wish to reform its structures and invest in many years of its own development, and continues to believe that it can reverse engineer western systems to suit its needs.

The only way the PLAN will be able to pose a threat to the USN will be in the tight waters of the Taiwan Strait. There are no simple solutions there. As the Falkands showed us, ASW is extremely difficult. The PLAN's Kilos are sufficent enough to keep any carrier battle group far away, not to mention shore based air and missile assets. I dont have the answers for such a situation, not being a naval officer, Im just an undersexed grad student , but I would imagine something along the lines of a cruise missile campaign against PLAN bases with a concurrent anti submarine campaign. However, attacking the Chinese mainland may be too much for an American government to swallow. Its hard to say if the US would get involved to a great degree in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. America may be more content with just basing air and ABM assets on Taiwan only.

Nevertheless, in any other action beyond Taiwan, the PLAN is, and will for decades, be disadvantaged. Remember too that Japan and South Korea are firm US allies dedicated to rolling back China, and they currently posses far more capable navies than the present PLAN.

Also, continuing Chinese naval build ups is dependent on one thing: The overbloated,teetering Chinese economy. I've noticed on these boards, and many others, that most of the Anti-China crowd, such as Mr.Head, fail to take into account China's internal problems when discussing Chinese aspirations.

The Politburo probably pray to Mao every morning that their economy has not collapsed. The problem is the banking system. China has for years been giving out massive loans to entities that will never, ever be able to pay back. Their solution to the problem, in typical Maoist fashion was to hand out more unrepayable loans!

Any large amount of free capital Beijing possess seems to be spent on foreign arms or enegy rather than the reform of the banking system.

That is why America is giving China such leeway in terms of its currency. If the Chinese currency goes too high, loans will be called back in, and the whole thing collapses.
A supposed vibrant economy is the only thing keeping the Chinese middle class from demanding more power.
If the economy collapses, the communist government may well fall. China, being very regionalist, with a significant problem of "political" generals in the various military districts, could revert back to warlordism. This is a major concern for any future US involvement with China: having to intervene in a civil war caused by the downfall of the communist regime. The USN may very well go into action against China, but not against any coherent national navy.

Still, this may not happen. A smaller recession would very likely smash China's massively expensive naval expansion and leave the USN with nothing to contend with.

Regards,

 

[Crusader2000]

If, China is not careful with in Naval (Military) Modernization. Many (including the US) will take it as a threat. Which, will inturn lead to a major arms race. This of course can't be won by China and is just a waste of her valuble resourses................IMO:smash

 

[Jeff Head]

...I've noticed on these boards, and many others, that most of the Anti-China crowd, such as Mr.Head, fail to take into account China's internal problems when discussing Chinese aspirations. Regards,

Well, since I was singled out, I suppose I'd best respond.

1st, I am not anti-Chinese. I have been to China and Taiwan on several occassions and met some truly wonderful people. I am anti-communist or totalitarian government...so, it is probably fairer and more correct to say that I am anti-CCCP.

2nd, I do take into consideration the Chinese economy. The fact is, they have managed to modify their econoimic model away from the absolutely fatal Maoist model that would have already had them bankrupt, and changed over to a command market economy that, IMHO, is much more fascist in nature. With the promise of very cheap labor leading to cheap product costs...and the apple of a potential huge market "someday", they have wooed and attracted tremendous investment and capitol into their nation and economy.

However, it is not the masses and common Chinese who are benefiting from it. It is the group of people who belong to the CCP and their adherants who are benefiting. That happens to be a very large number of people because 6-7% of more than 1.2 billion is a large number...and they are benefiting and they are able to show a lot of progress in China in a lot of areas...while the masses of people languish.

My own opinion is that the CCP does not intend to allow the economic prosperity...with all of its pitfalls (particularly as regards the currency) to ever benefit the masses of citizens to the point that they have true economic freedom, or political freedom for that matter. I feel they will lead them along, using nationalistic issues (such as Taiwan) to energize them at the appropriate times from the CCPs perspective.

If they fail...they may well have a revolution on their hands, particularly if the economy fails in general, which it may well do.

If they are successful, they will walk that tight rope to economic self sufficiency and more regional hegonomy and a contually growing miltary...which would pit us against them economically and perhaps ultimately militarily. A powerhouse fascist economic machine can produce some significant results, as we saw with Germany ion the 1930s and 1940s. I pray iot does not go that way.

But that is just my own opinion, nothing more.

Hope that helps clarify my own position and some of the background for my own more intrinsic interests in the military side of things.

 

[hesidu]

Well, since I was singled out, I suppose I'd best respond.
However, it is not the masses and common Chinese who are benefiting from it. It is the group of people who belong to the CCP and their adherants who are benefiting. That happens to be a very large number of people because 6-7% of more than 1.2 billion is a large number...and they are benefiting and they are able to show a lot of progress in China in a lot of areas...while the masses of people languish.

I don't want to change your point of view of CCCP, but I have to point out that you have mis-understood of China's economy reform. I'm not of those people who "belong to the CCP and their adherants" as you mentioned in last reply. I live in a town where most of people make socks. This type of town is quite common in the China. The annual socks output of my town is up to six billion, and most of these is for export. Thanks to this industry, our living level is dramatically improved. So we benefit from the economy reform not because of "belong to the CCP and their adherants".
Though not all the Chinese benefit from China's economy reform, this situation will be changed. The chinese government is going to reduce the incoming gape between different area and different people. One policy has recently been issued is that Chinese government is going to offer a nine years of free education for all the kids in China in two years. That is to say primary school and junior high school(nine years of education in all) will be free. This will benefit most for the low incoming people.
I suggest everyone here should do some investigate before jump into conclusion.

 

[crobato]

However, it is not the masses and common Chinese who are benefiting from it. It is the group of people who belong to the CCP and their adherants who are benefiting. That happens to be a very large number of people because 6-7% of more than 1.2 billion is a large number...and they are benefiting and they are able to show a lot of progress in China in a lot of areas...while the masses of people languish.

That's what you call trickle down capitalism, and that is something many countries have gone through (Victorian England, the US in the twenties and thirties). It's a simple fact that in a free capitalist economy, there are those who will rise to the top of the pyramid, and then the effects will trickle down to the rest of the population even as the general well being of the population improves.

Maybe you should read a bit more from business journals like Businessweek, The Economist, even magazines like Time, Asiaweek or Newsweek. There is a new rising entrepreneur class in China, first developing among the coastal cities, then into the inner cities. The rural still tends to lag, but that is also true of every developing country I have seen and you can't make 1.2 billion people middle class overnight. There are also plenty of rich overseas Chinese from Taiwan, Singapore, the US and other Asian countries, as well as foreign expats.

Maybe you should check the CIA's own figures of GDP/PPP and find out what is the average capita per person China as been getting for the last 20 years or so. Anyone can tell you China has done much better than any third world country under the leash of the World Bank or IMF such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and various Latin American countries.

If indeed China is so poor, then how come 300 million mainland Chinese could afford to subscribe to a celphone service?