Go Back   DefenceTalk Forum - Military & Defense Forums > Global Defense & Military > Military Strategy and Tactics

Defense News
Land, Air & Naval Forces






Military Photos
Latest Military Pictures
Defense Reports
Aerospace & Defence


Defending Scotland.

This is a discussion on Defending Scotland. within the Military Strategy and Tactics forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; ...


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old March 20th, 2017   #16
Moderator
General
ngatimozart's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posts: 4,241
Threads:
If Scotland leaves the UK, then it will no longer be part of NATO. It will have to apply to join NATO and go through the process which will take years.
Quote:
NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has*confirmed that an independent Scotland would have to leave the alliance.
“If it happens, then the UK will continue as a member of Nato but a new independent state has to apply for membership and then it is up to 28 allies to decide whether we have a new member.

All decisions in NATO are taken by consensus, so we need the consensus of all allies.

By leaving the UK it will also be leaving Nato, but of course it is possible to apply for membership and then the allies would then decide whether the independent state would become a member of NATO
They may have problems with Spain agreeing to their request as well, because of Spanish domestic politics and breakaway regions.

Since that's the case then I think an independent Scotland would have to spend substantial sums upon its defence and the surveillance and protection of its North Sea oil and gas industry. It would need a comprehensive navy and air force with an army being the poorer relation. The army could be used on the southern border to keep the English Sassenachs oot. Seriously though, both the Scottish navy and air force would need long legs and reasonably good C5ISR capabilities.

How it's going to pay for this is another story and I can't see the English giving up the North Sea hydrocarbons easily. The Scots are going to have to restructure their economy big time and they will have to think outside the square. Any major structuring is going to inflict short - medium term economic and social damage on the Scots and that will be unavoidable. It happened in NZ in the from 1984 - the mid 1990s when we went through a massive economic restructuring.
________________
"There is one immutable truth we cannot prevent; war is coming, we just don’t know when or where." Brigadier Andrew Harrison DSO MBE
ngatimozart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2017   #17
Defense Enthusiast
Sergeant
No Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 246
Threads:
Thinking outside the box, but if Scotland wants US, UK or NATO to do a fair bit of its defence for it, they just have to start to hint at making overtures/cosy up to Russia for help in defending North Sea oil and gas assets, and they will be offered all the help they need from UK, US and NATO.
Even more if they hinted at letting Russia have access to a naval base in Scotland.
rjtjrt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2017   #18
Defense Professional / Analyst
Major General
ASSAIL's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Darwin NT Australia
Posts: 2,042
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by t68 View Post
I was using NZDF as a template as they have a slightly larger demographic and have more near threats, I believe NZ should be able to sustain 3x T26
Scotland has a current account deficit of 8.6% GDP and that is calculated including some GBP 14 billion revenue from North Sea hydrocarbons and this excludes funding defence.
NZ is running surpluses on its current account, has an mature defence establishment including all training and command apparatus.
NZ has a larger GDP even when oil and gas are included (NZ 240 billion USD v Scotland 233 billion USD incl.oil)

Given the above I doubt that an independent Scotland will be sustaining a defence force at or above their NZ cousins.
ASSAIL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2017   #19
Defense Enthusiast
Captain
No Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 804
Threads:
When it comes to the economics this news article sum's it all up nicely.

The five charts that show how economically risky Scottish independence would be

Quick dot point's fom the article

- Cost to produce north sea oil is $44 a barrel but only selling at $48 a barrel, very little profits literally under $100m per an annum

- The deficit is actually 15 billion pounds and equal to 9.5% of the GDP

- Growth rate is around .02 per a quarter compared to the UK's .06

Add in that there solution to lower prices was to increase production says a lot about there fiscal capability.. Adding more capacity when it already exceeds demand will lower costs even more. Idiots.

Add in flow on effects from various industries with Scotland breaking from the UK and Scotlands fiscal stupidity they wont be able to sustain any mentionable shipbuilding industry because they neither produce much of anything that is exported and any orders for a future navy and/or coast guard would be too few and far between. There would also be the job losses from UK bases shifting away, with Faslane in a worst case scenario estimated to lose up to 11,000 jobs, Not to mention job losses in the oil industry with Scottish policy actively driving the price down making the industry more volitile.

Actually Scotland is to the UK what Western Australia is to Australia. When the prices on resources are high, The UK/Australia is stealing from us taking all this money.. Soon as the prices collapse and its hands out asking for money. Not any real independence move here though so there is that but those wanting it have no bloody clue about the long term impacts to there own economy. In fact on some level Scotland/WA leaving the UK/Australia would help the rest of the nations, in Australia's case has been found the high resource prices have caused more job losses in other industries then made in mining...

Cut short, No way Scotland could defend it's self, Its economy is already smaller then NZ's, it's in a worse financial position and lack's decades of experience to guide it. Any military budget would be in the 1% or less range cause they couldnt afford anything more. A handful of basic frigates, some OPV's, No combat aircraft, hand full of ASW/maritime patrol aircraft, dozen or so helicopters, a single AOR, etc etc.
vonnoobie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2017   #20
Super Moderator
Lieutenant General
No Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,922
Threads:
Scotland post independence will have a massive deficit however - that's the point - their budgetary position will be very very bleak and to make ends meet, they'd be looking at cuts everywhere. Their last white paper on defence indicated they'd be seeking two frigates from the current fleet, which I think was worded to avoid being handed the Type 22's that were laid up awaiting disposal at the time.

Realistically, Scotland's position will be very similar to that of the ROI - they'll have some light vehicles and small arms, they'll maybe deploy for peace keeping missions where they can rely on the logistics support of allies. If they get the two frigates they've stated they want, they'll be tied alongside with less sea days than the Argentine Navy get.

They'd be much more sensibly placed to ask for the four OPV's that have just been built - cheaper to run, they'll have a homogenous and modern fleet of patrol vessels and four would give them a reasonable chance of keeping 1 at sea at all times, with the occasional tasking to the Carib to top up on tans as part of an international effort. They've also said they fancy about a dozen Tiffy - I suspect the chances of those aircraft being kept in flying condition with spares will be almost none.There's no point in looking at other countries of about the same size and taking guesses at what they might do - a post-independence Scotland will be a fairly Socialist affair with a poor financial position, a lot of inherited equipment that may or may not fit their needs, which doesn't break down sensibly into equipment that they can deploy with.

Most of their budget will be consumed with salary and support costs with little left for modernisation and I suspect that recruitment will be an issue. Most of the Scots I know signed up to get out in the world - sailing to the end of the Clyde and back may not have the same allure.
StobieWan is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:07 PM.