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This is a discussion on Usa within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by weegee Sorry I placed this in the RAN thread. Just changing direction a little for the moment. ...


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Old February 2nd, 2017   #46
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Sorry I placed this in the RAN thread.

Just changing direction a little for the moment. I saw this today and started to really think what the future holds for the ANZUS treaty and relations if Trump keeps carrying on like he is. Particularly if this article is anything go by?
Donald Trump call to Malcolm Turnbull: President ‘doesn’t care’ | Reaction

I know I shouldn't read much into articles like this. But generally where there's smoke there's fire. I can very much see Mr Trump isolating the USA is a big way during his term. You shouldn't dismiss your staunch allies.
The thing is that its been picked up and made the news here in NZ as well and on the BBC so it is not doing the US any good at all. Also he's spoken of sending US troops into Mexico to sort out some "bad hombres" as he puts it. Whether it's an offer of help or a threat is open to debate. The thing is that he's alienating allies and friends left, right and centre and as Head Of State you cannot do that because you end up becoming a pariah. He's playing right into the hands of China and Russia, plus further dividing his own country.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #47
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The thing is that its been picked up and made the news here in NZ as well and on the BBC so it is not doing the US any good at all. .
It's getting massive circulation internationally. It appears everyone was interested in Trump having a massive falling out with an ally. Uk, Germany, Europe, Asia, South America. If you look around a few of the news sites in each country its front page stuff.

I don't think its working out as the Trump camp had hoped. Its just coming off as Trump insulted Australia and is pissing in the eyes of its closest allies.

No one really cares about the refugees or the deal itself. Everyone is seeing the relationship is what is at stake.

The deal itself was always highly dubious, pulled together in the last days of the Obama administration, left to be an issue when Trump took over.

Its more about the litmus test of AU/US relations.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #48
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Yet another reason to worry about what Trump's going to do. A big operation to boost him, apparently meant to be surreptitious, but done very crudely & clumsily so it's bloody obvious what it is..
I think it's pretty obvious what he's going to do, him and Bibby have obviously had a powwow and the target is Iran, I bet by then end of this year Trump will have gone to war over nothing but his ego being stroked by that nut running Israel.

Just imagine the mess invading Iran would result in, Iraq was a mistake, Iran will be even worse.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #49
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First the Tillerson appointment. Now this. Trump making sure no obstruction at the Stae Department when he unilaterally lifts Russian sanctions.
I'm not a Trump fan, but if he lifts sanctions against Russia i'll be happy, it will make my working life much easier.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #50
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Iran will be even worse.
I couldn't agree more. If Putin has a say however, he'll do all he can to ''protect'' Iran as it's not in the interests of Russia to have the U.S. and Iran to be in conflict. Trump's advisors will also be aware that trouble with Iran will affect Iran's ability to sustain whatever it's currently doing in Iraq and Syria; the beneficiary will be IS. But then again they might be convinced that IS in the long run will still be defeated even if Iran is forced to scale down its involvement in Iraq and Syria.

Irrespective of whether its Israel or the U.S. that strikes Iran; the Iranians will retaliate by lobbing a couple of missiles at Israel which in turn will result in the U.S. retaliating to ''protect'' Israel. If that happens there will be joy in Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Hezbollah will stir something up on behalf of its patron and Israel will have the excuse to go into southern Lebanon again to finish off what it failed to do in 2006. If the Iranians are smart they'll avoid doing what their enemies want them to do but the problem is that the Iranian leadership will be under a lot of pressure from hardliners who have long been saying that the U.S. can't be trusted and that Iran should respond.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #51
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On a side note with the way Trump is turning away the ally's of the US it could open up a new avenue of peace talk's in the Middle East with Iran being the center. I'd prefer Iran over Saudi Arabia any day.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #52
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The problem is that Trump isn't a politician. He is a businessman and uses those same tactics he did when he was running his company. This includes insulting rivals, bullying and doing everything else that he used to do when hammering out deals. He is used to talking tough and you have to be tough with him in return or he will walk all over you.

Turnbull will need to step up to the challenge of dealing with Trump or Australia will become America's kick toy for the next 4 - 8 years.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #53
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The problem is that Trump isn't a politician..
What's more he's a text book example of a narcissistic sociopath, unfortunately the clever and often charismatic sociopaths are commonly found in board rooms or as leaders of political movements. If you understand it's all about satisfying his ego, that he is never wrong, and it's always someone else's fault then he is much easier to understand. He is also not going to change his modus operandi. Good chance he will start a war. Tough time for US allies. We in Oz are probably should start taking lessons in Mandarin.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #54
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I think it's pretty obvious what he's going to do, him and Bibby have obviously had a powwow and the target is Iran, I bet by then end of this year Trump will have gone to war over nothing but his ego being stroked by that nut running Israel.

Just imagine the mess invading Iran would result in, Iraq was a mistake, Iran will be even worse.
My only hope is that he is planning something akin to Operation Opera... swoop in make a point and "maybe" Iran takes it on the chin.

If he's thinking of Iraq '03 all over again then I shudder at the thought.
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Old February 2nd, 2017   #55
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We in Oz are probably should start taking lessons in Mandarin.

Trump should be careful what he wishes for, if he pushes to far he just may get the isolation that he graves. Well we did have a PM who could speak the language.......
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Old February 3rd, 2017   #56
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Evidently according to the White House it was Prime Minister Trumble of Australia who Trump spoke to last week.

The White House can't even get Aussie Prime Minister's name right - World - NZ Herald News

Good grief ....
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Old February 3rd, 2017   #57
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Must watch too much 'wrestling'... Let's get ready TRUMBLE...
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Old February 3rd, 2017   #58
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Is Turnbull's refugee arrangement a 'dumb deal' after all? - 9news.com.au

Seems the "dumb deal" that trump is twittering about might not be so dumb after all, as the arrangement is cloak under classified national security so we don't know what the US is getting in return, seems like Trump dosnt really care about goverment to goverment quid pro quo deals that may work in each others favour.
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Old February 3rd, 2017   #59
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I'd prefer Iran over Saudi Arabia any day.
Viewed objectively; Iran at least has been helping to defeat IS in Iraq and Syria - something the U.S. [under Obama] grudgingly came around to accepting and something the Sunni Gulf states were extremely displeased with. Iran also - way before September 11th - has been playing a part to roll back the Talibs in Afghanistan. At a time when the U.S. refused to have anything to do with the Northern Alliance it was aid from Iran, India and Russia that kept the Northern Alliance going.

If the end game was to ''strengthen'' or further protect Israel; bring the Gulf states closer to the U.S, weaken the Russians; isolate Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas; then yes, having a go at Iran is the way to go about it. After all, along with Syria, Iran is the only country in the region that isn't a U.S. chum. It will be interesting to see how Russia reacts if things get worse between the U.S. and Iran.
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Old February 3rd, 2017   #60
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I cannot wrap my head around that he (or his breitbart court adviser...) seems to think that starting a trade war with basically the rest of the world is going to help the US economy in any way...

Putting a 35% import tax onto German (and hence EU) goods is going to have some interesting effects for a lot of US companies. Not just the visible ones like financial and IT companies but most automatic transmissions in US cars are for example sourced in the EU. He is in for a rough time if he thinks he can just bully an economic block like the EU.

Incidently this is the US into which the UK projects lots of it's hopes for a post Brexit time...
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