UK defence cuts

UKquest

New Member
The newly elected Coalition party will have a strategic defence review this year . Defence secretary Liam fox has already stated that there will be defence cuts.
With the massive UK deficit how deep do you think the UK defence budget will be cut? Can you see the two proposed aircraft carriers been scrapped along with other equipment? Will the Army, RAF and the Royal navy be merged into a single force? And, do you think there will be a reduction in the number of troops?
 
The newly elected Coalition party will have a strategic defence review this year . Defence secretary Liam fox has already stated that there will be defence cuts.
With the massive UK deficit how deep do you think the UK defence budget will be cut? Can you see the two proposed aircraft carriers been scrapped along with other equipment? Will the Army, RAF and the Royal navy be merged into a single force? And, do you think there will be a reduction in the number of troops?
I could see the carriers being scrapped easily. Critics can argue that the UK doesn't need those carriers when it already several. Carriers are expensive, and where does Britain need to project power. As we see their involvement in AfPak wind down, they will have more assets to protect their interests. Plus, the newly proposed carriers are relying on a STVOL version of the F-35. As you can see, the F-35 is encountering some friction, and won't be ready very soon.

However, you could counter the mentioned point by saying that Britain needs to have the assets available to protect their economic interests. Lastly, shipbuilding can really contribute to the economy.
 

bonehead

New Member
the new goverment have already stated the new carriers will be built they did not say or commit anything on the f35 though they have also stated an extension on the harriers and or possible upgrades maybe considered, the US are now looking at scrapping the ROLLS ROYCE ENGINE which is the engine the UK want this will cost jobs in the uk and may have an impact on the uk placing an order for the plane.

US protection of its own jobs markets will impact on the possible purchases as the agreement was countries would share the build, it appears the us have relented on various aspects of the agreements, with the source codes, builds and now the engine options.

i would not be surprised if the orders for the plane being dropped or reduced, germany and france have today announced defence budget cuts, though not affecting the programme the cuts in spain,italy, portugal will and the SDR in the UK may also have a impact.
we cannot afford this plane no matter how much we want the boys toys we have to be practical with the money we have and buy the best we can for the money.
 

Niaven

New Member
the new goverment have already stated the new carriers will be built they did not say or commit anything on the f35 though they have also stated an extension on the harriers and or possible upgrades maybe considered, the US are now looking at scrapping the ROLLS ROYCE ENGINE which is the engine the UK want this will cost jobs in the uk and may have an impact on the uk placing an order for the plane.

US protection of its own jobs markets will impact on the possible purchases as the agreement was countries would share the build, it appears the us have relented on various aspects of the agreements, with the source codes, builds and now the engine options.

i would not be surprised if the orders for the plane being dropped or reduced, germany and france have today announced defence budget cuts, though not affecting the programme the cuts in spain,italy, portugal will and the SDR in the UK may also have a impact.
we cannot afford this plane no matter how much we want the boys toys we have to be practical with the money we have and buy the best we can for the money.
I agree that it is unlikely that the carriers will be scrapped considering that one of the invincibles has been put into long term storage, i think one in refit and the other operational ??

As for the F-35's, there is a necessity for an aircraft carrier to have aircraft. The Harriers being used at the moment have really reached the end of their life, and as a result, the only alternative is for the F-35. They may reduce the numbers so that the only have enough for one air wing at sea and swap them between the carriers. There may also be a reduction in the numbers that the RAF may use.

It is very hard to see where a defence review will cut costs from as in my eyes, with the commitment to Afganistan, the Army is already stretched extremely thin, the Navy has been already signifcant reduced, and to reduce it even further would affect our ability (as an island nation) to do anything (e.g another Falklands??). The RAF have had their front line squadrons cut - which was i believe correct. The Typhoons we have for Air Defence of the UK will allow any remaining F3 Tornados to be retired. Aging Tristars could effectively be replaced by a commercial rental agreement for the transporting of troops, an increase of tactical lift helicopters is a necessity (Merlins, Chinooks, maybe even leasing a dozen CH53's from the US). Close support is still a requirement and the Harriers/F-35s will be able to handle that requirement. ASW Nimrods could be reduced as their necessity isnt as important - with the delayed and over budget improvment program, this I think could be one of the major cuts.

Anyway thats my view :coffee
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I could see the carriers being scrapped easily. Critics can argue that the UK doesn't need those carriers when it already several. Carriers are expensive, and where does Britain need to project power. As we see their involvement in AfPak wind down, they will have more assets to protect their interests. Plus, the newly proposed carriers are relying on a STVOL version of the F-35. As you can see, the F-35 is encountering some friction, and won't be ready very soon. .
Nor will the carriers be ready soon.

£1.2 billion has been spent already, & most of the rest is contracted for. If we cancel the carriers, we spend a few billion pounds to get nothing at all. The opposition would have a field day.

As for '"where does Britain need to project power", well, what a question! Let me ask 'Where does the USA need to project power?'. Raw materials sources? The UK is far more dependent on imports of everything except oil (& that's changing fast, as the North Sea fields run out) than the USA. Great Britain is an island which lives by maritime trade, & has relics of empire scattered around the world the inhabitants of which want to be protected.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The Typhoons we have for Air Defence of the UK will allow any remaining F3 Tornados to be retired.
Already happening.

Aging Tristars could effectively be replaced by a commercial rental agreement for the transporting of troops,
Replacement already contracted for: the AirTanker A330 tanker/transports. BTW, commercial rental is only cheaper at much lower usage rates than we currently have.

ASW Nimrods could be reduced as their necessity isnt as important - with the delayed and over budget improvment program, this I think could be one of the major cuts.
Already cut to the bone, & the money for development & procurement has been spent. Unless we decide to do without maritime patrol aircraft altogether, which would be crazy, & scrap the new ones we've now bought & paid for, there's little scope for savings.
 

citizen578

New Member
We've been doing without MPA's for the past few months anyway, and it will be some time before the MRA4 becomes a usable asset. Completely unsurprising that the RAF lobby for and succeed in getting rid of useful units in favour of prestige ones. Further evidence for a rationalisation of what sevice does what.

As for the original question about defence cuts at large, I foresee alot of backroo
cuts, a lot of privatisation 'quick cash' schemes, and alot of older non front line units being stood down. The Army's heavy armour is looking shaky, as are some of the RNs hydrographic sqn and minehunters.
It was positive that defence was exempted from the initial 6.2bn.

We'll have to wait and see, but I suspect it won't be as painfull for defence as many suggest.
 

spsun100001

New Member
I'm expecting the defence review to be Treasury driven rather than defence and foreign policy driven.

I think the only things that won't be touched are things directly connected to Afghanistan which is infantry and Royal Marine numbers, helicopters and urgent operational requirements.

For the army, I expect to see large cuts to the tank and self propelled artillery forces and significant cuts in the FRES programme.

For the air force, the withdrawal of Tornado and capping of Typhoon at 160 aircraft. Large reductions in air base numbers which will result in significant civilian job losses and commensurare reductions in RAF personnel. I expect the A400 and tanker programmes to survive as they support UK jobs in defence manufacturing which is the primary objective of the UK defence budget allocation (as opposed to say defending the country).

I expect the F35 order to be reduced to around 48 aircraft. Enough for an air wing of 24 on one carrier (significantly less than the air wing of 36 originally planned) with the rest for OCU and maintenance rotation.

The Navy will get both carriers but only one will be operational at any one time. The four Type 22 batch 3 frigates will be retired due to their age and large crews. Only 6 Astute SSN's will be ordered rather than the 7 stated as planned and there will be further reductions in the small ship fleet. I would expect Plymouth or Portrmouth naval base to be run down significantly to reflect the smaller fleet.

Current capability weaknesses such as the toytown AEW solution for the carriers (a helicopter) and the lengthy fitted for but not with list for the Type 45 destroyer will not be rectified.

Just my predictions of course but all in all a pretty sad state of events.
 

riksavage

Banned Member
Hopefully the review will prioritise funding for spearhead assets by saving money earmarked for support programmes, which could be shared. I'm both surprised and pleased by the ongoing discussions between France and UK about sharing the burden with respect to some of the big-ticket projects. A possible lease arrangement involving the new UK tanker fleets and C17's by France makes sense. The latter need new air-to-air refuellers and strategic lift until the A400 comes on line. Leasing air-hours off the UK is a win, win for both. France and UK represent the only two nations in Europe capable of sustaining out of area operations, so sharing of strategic supporting assets would be a good thing as they both require a similar capability. The PFI refuelling aircraft deal is hugely expensive, cash clawed back from this programme can be diverted to front-line progects, such as FRES and F35B.

There's even talk of the UK and France jointly developing a long rage UAV to rival Predator to avoid losing any possible future market share and technology advances, see below.

France, U.K. To Join on European MALE UAV - Defense News

A comprehensive SDR is needed to reassess what is needed to fight a war outside of western Europe - flexibility, balance and ability to react to a myriad of threats will be critical. The UK must move away form a cold war mentality, if that means reducing numbers and buying more gucci intelligence gathering kit, then so be it. We need to get over the human resource numbers game.
 

Grim901

New Member
@Rik: I agree that the UK and Fracne sharing assets may be useful, but it ignores one key point: Unless more are ordered the UK doesn't have enough C17's or other transports as it is! If we start leasing hours out we'll have even less time to use them for our already overstretched air bridge.
 

vkeo

New Member
It certainly doesn't seem like a time to be cutting spending just to please the public. I hope Rolls Royce stays strong or the workers in Ansty and Derby will be having a bad time of it.
 

bonehead

New Member
its been reported several times this week that the order for the f35 may well be dropped to 50 airframes, and that the RAF will rerole to a more support arm then an offesive arm as it is currently configured and as such wil not currently require, new fighters, if the UK cuts its order then the F35 project could be in real difficulty as the dutch have also pulled out of the programme, along side the US now also considering cutting its order. Plan be has always been a naval tyhoon and or rafale which was offered back in 2006 could be revisted if the F35 gets cancelled.

the uk i doubt will cut manpower numbers most saving if any will come from reorganising the civilian costs to running the MOD as well as over run expensive projects, but also a more competitive tendering process in the future with fixed cost contracting and a move away from just in time procurement which casued many operational problems with equipment not being available when the armed services needed it. it is also said that 1st armd Div is due to return to the uk in the next 10 years from germany, this being the case new barracks will be required as well.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
its been reported several times this week that the order for the f35 may well be dropped to 50 airframes, and that the RAF will rerole to a more support arm then an offesive arm as it is currently configured and as such wil not currently require, new fighters, if the UK cuts its order then the F35 project could be in real difficulty as the dutch have also pulled out of the programme, along side the US now also considering cutting its order. Plan be has always been a naval tyhoon and or rafale which was offered back in 2006 could be revisted if the F35 gets cancelled.

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If the F-35 orders are dropped then the UK will have commit to the additional 72 typhoon orders right, bringing them to a total of 232 air frames. Will these 72 be navalised or will more air craft be ordered?
 

citizen578

New Member
Sea Typhoon is a non-starter. If we were to go down that route of a CATOBAR carrier force (and that's a big if), then it's a choice between F-35C, SH and Rafale.
I don't see what is to be gained by cutting the F-35 order, seeing as they will he bought incrementally, with most being bought towards the end of this decade, when the current budget problems should be dealt with (that afterall is the entire idea behind the defecit reduction programme).

On a different note, things are looking up for capital projects, with FRES SV contract being signed, and the carriers pushing forward. Add to that the tone of parliamentary debates, then even on the eve of the SDSR, things aren't looking quite as worrying for the defence big tickets.
 

bonehead

New Member
If the F-35 orders are dropped then the UK will have commit to the additional 72 typhoon orders right, bringing them to a total of 232 air frames. Will these 72 be navalised or will more air craft be ordered?
not sure on the extra typhoons, if the RAF are reconfigured we would see more airlift aircraft than fighters, as most fighting is likely to be overseas and not europen area, we need a larger airlift requirement, it could also be possible that rotary wing transfer to the AAC, there is a lot of ideas being floated but it also appears the US are also considering reducing airframes as well, so the F35 looks like it could be in bigger trouble.

i very much doubt more aircraft wil be ordered under the current defence budgets but anything is possible in the next budget. but currently the defence budget has been ringfenced and not subject to cuts. but savings are expected to be found and the MOD civilain staff are in line for some massive reorg and cuts.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Sea Typhoon is a non-starter. If we were to go down that route of a CATOBAR carrier force (and that's a big if), then it's a choice between F-35C, SH and Rafale.
I don't see what is to be gained by cutting the F-35 order, seeing as they will he bought incrementally, with most being bought towards the end of this decade, when the current budget problems should be dealt with (that afterall is the entire idea behind the defecit reduction programme).

On a different note, things are looking up for capital projects, with FRES SV contract being signed, and the carriers pushing forward. Add to that the tone of parliamentary debates, then even on the eve of the SDSR, things aren't looking quite as worrying for the defence big tickets.
I am pretty sure the UK isnt going for any Rafales. The sea Typhoon is a better option than that.
 

bonehead

New Member
Sea Typhoon is a non-starter. If we were to go down that route of a CATOBAR carrier force (and that's a big if), then it's a choice between F-35C, SH and Rafale.
I don't see what is to be gained by cutting the F-35 order, seeing as they will he bought incrementally, with most being bought towards the end of this decade, when the current budget problems should be dealt with (that afterall is the entire idea behind the defecit reduction programme).

On a different note, things are looking up for capital projects, with FRES SV contract being signed, and the carriers pushing forward. Add to that the tone of parliamentary debates, then even on the eve of the SDSR, things aren't looking quite as worrying for the defence big tickets.
ok typhoon naval was trailed back in 2006 however if they took this as plan b several changes would be required but its not impossible and would be ready before the carriers were, cutting orders on the F35 makes a massive saving on the overall budget now and considering this already has well doubled its orginal price tag and the costs of maintenance and the fuel burn costs its frigging expensive thing to buy and run and as the final price tag has yet to be confirmed we cannot afford it, Fres contract is only for the trails not the full production run so could still be dropped or delayed or the whole tender could go out again to get a better price. the carrier build is not at the stage to say what option they will have but it will be depenadant on which aircraft they finally deside on, the only thing the goverment agreed was the carriers will be built, nothing was said on the F35. then there is the Rafale whch is carrier ready but some major changes to radar ect would be required for UK requirements, and the new version 4 is due within the next couple of years. so the UK still has some time.

[Mod edit]Please, please, try to use proper punctuation & capitalisation. For example, sentences start with capital letters, & end with full stops. You should have been taught that in primary school. It is very hard to read your posts.

Oh yes - there are things called spell checkers.

PJI
[/Mod edit]
 
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mnmaria20

Banned Member
Mod edit: Text and link deleted. Post spamming in order to post links is frowned upon, don't do it.
 
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woofers

New Member
SDSR - Standpoint Article might be of interest

Hello everyone, my article in this month's issue of Standpoint magazine is about SDSR and the future of UK's great power status. It is called "We Have to be Ready for Anything", It might (I hope) be of interest to some of you, do have a look.


Alexander
 
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