Syrian Internal Conflict

lucinator

New Member
Half a year ago I started a thread on whether or not there should be a Libyan no fly zone. To my surprise it generated fierce debate.(mostly against such a measure) Now I am starting one for Syria.

So here it is, should there be a no fly zone in Syria to end government killing of civilians?
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Half a year ago I started a thread on whether or not there should be a Libyan no fly zone. To my surprise it generated fierce debate.(mostly against such a measure) Now I am starting one for Syria.

So here it is, should there be a no fly zone in Syria to end government killing of civilians?
Several questions come immediately to mind regarding a "Syrian No Fly Zone".

The first is just what role have aircraft played in the Syrian unrest? If aircraft have not been used to attack civilians, then there is no reason for a No Fly Zone, since it would not have an impact.

Secondly, what are the expectations on the outcome of the ground situation? If the civilians cannot take control of the ground, and/or outside forces enter Syria to do so on behalf/with the civilians, then again, a No Fly Zone would not have an impact on the end results.

I could be mistaken, but my impressions have been that the Syrian government and forces under Assad have much greater control over the ground than Libyan forces did under Gadaffi. Because of that, airstrikes were conducted in Libya on areas which had falled to those rebelling. With the Libyan No Fly Zone, Gadaffi lost the ability to conduct such strikes, and then there was the air campaign against Gaffi's forces which were attacking civilian areas with artillery, etc. Ultimately tipping the balance of power enough for the civilian population to retake the country.

In Syria, unless that balance of power can be tipped sufficiently towards those who are in revolt, then a No Fly Zone would at best delay things. Given that I do not think the ground situation in Syria is as far along as it was in Libya, and I have serious doubts that outside powers would be as eager to intervene in Syria as occurred in Libya, I do not think a No Fly Zone is likely.

-Cheers
 

lucinator

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #3
well for one thing according to CNN planes and helo's have been bombing civilian homes and residential areas. Also with more and more army units defecting it could help them organize a effective resistance. Lastly airstrikes could help protect some of the towns that have been under siege and attacked by Syrian tanks and armored vehicles,
 

Tom Bryceland

New Member
A No Fly zone there is a whole new Ballgame, for a number of reasons, it would be difficult, but that should not factor into the decision.

1) It would Not be a UN Mission this time. No chance that Russia and China will allow it. "Insta-Veto"

2) Syria has a mutual defence pact with Iran. (sorry cant post links)

3) Remember "No Fly Zone" means making the area safe your your own country to flyover , which in turn means taking out the more serious AA Assets in Syria before any Air Patrols start.

Estamated Syrian Air Defence Force as per (As Per Wikipedia)


40,000 active personnel
Two Air Defence Division HQ
Twenty-five Air Defence Brigade
One hundred thirty Air Defence Batteries

25 teams defense (130 batteries) Including:

Self-propelled
62 batteries:
11 teams - 27 batteries - SA-6 Gainful (PU SAM 2K12 Square);
14 Battery - SA-8 Gecko (PU SAM 9K33 Osa);
12 Battery - SA-22 Greyhound (96K6 Pantsyr S1E);
9 Battery - Buk-M2
Towed
11 teams - 60 batteries with SA-2 Guideline (CP-75 Dvina / S-75M Volga) and SA-3 Goa (S-125 Neva / S-125M Pechora) (Being upgraded);
Two SAM regiment with SA-5 Gammon(in each brigade to 2 divisions for 2 batteries each).
Four SAM battalion
Eight Static/Shelter SAM batteries

Two independent SAM Regiment
Four SAM batteries with SA-8
Four SAM batteries with SA-10

Think about what would be needed to remove those assets. Possibly only the US has the capability and Volume of assets to get the job done in a decent time scale.

4) Getting involved in Syria has the potential to become a total war scenario, drawing in Iran, Israle, China, Russia, Turkey, Hezbolla, Hamas etc etc.

It will take a lot of political manovering and horse trading to keep russia and china out of it, on the level of scrapping the euro ABM shield or letting go of Tiawan.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I Think I agree with Todjaeger. Is there any large scale organized armed rebellions on the ground in Syria ? I Believe Nato take the chances for No Fly Zone, since there already evidence significant armed rebellion already occurred in Libya and Khadafi's lossing grip on his Army. Until such thing happen with Assad, I don't think Nato will take the chances for that.

Besides, in the Arab world eyes, unlike Khadafi's, Assad is a direct opposing force to Israel. Military intervention to Syria will only be seen in the Arab world as beneficiary to Israel only. Different reaction will be come from them, compared to Khadafi's.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1) It would Not be a UN Mission this time. No chance that Russia and China will allow it. "Insta-Veto"
I have a sneaking suspicion that an agreement or deal was made behind the scenes, to allow NATO to do as they please in Libya, in exchange for staying out of Syria. The situations in the two countries are eerily similar, yet while Libya was in the media spotlight (no accident, mind you) from the get-go, Syria is being kept fairly quiet and low-profile. To be precise, I don't have any evidence of this, but it would explain rather nicely why Russia and China didn't veto the Libyan resolution, and why so little pressure is being put on Syria.

2) Syria has a mutual defence pact with Iran. (sorry cant post links)
I doubt that would factor in to it. Iran's air assets are negligible for this scenario. They would likely resort to international scandal and covert arms shipments, but that's to be expected either way.

3) Remember "No Fly Zone" means making the area safe your your own country to flyover , which in turn means taking out the more serious AA Assets in Syria before any Air Patrols start.
Well yes, that is assuming that Syria resists the no fly zone. Given how they're winning the fight on the ground, they could simply choose to comply with it, and voluntarily ground their aircraft, and leave their SAMs cold. It wouldn't be a conventional response, but it would be a smart one, given their circumstances.

11 teams - 27 batteries - SA-6 Gainful (PU SAM 2K12 Square);
14 Battery - SA-8 Gecko (PU SAM 9K33 Osa);
Basically irrelevant. They're too old.

12 Battery - SA-22 Greyhound (96K6 Pantsyr S1E);
I'm not sure what you mean by battery, but iirc 50 units were delivered. Russian PVO units tend to have 6 unit batteries, so this would be 8 batteries, with 2 units to spare (possibly for training centers, or something along those lines). However these are short range SPAAG-SAM hybrids, that are meant for protecting divisional and theater level SAM assets. They have little value by themselves.

9 Battery - Buk-M2
Ah yes, the real deal, or rather, what the Pantsyr-1S' are meant to protect. Note, however, how small the numbers are. That's modern 18 SAMs, and 9 reloader vehicles.

Towed
11 teams - 60 batteries with SA-2 Guideline (CP-75 Dvina / S-75M Volga) and SA-3 Goa (S-125 Neva / S-125M Pechora) (Being upgraded);
Museum pieces. Even if they're getting the Pechora-2M upgrade, they're of limited utility at best.

Two SAM regiment with SA-5 Gammon(in each brigade to 2 divisions for 2 batteries each).
Virtually irrelevant.

Two independent SAM Regiment
Four SAM batteries with SA-8
Four SAM batteries with SA-10
Really? Syria has taken deliveries of S-300s? And when was this?

Think about what would be needed to remove those assets. Possibly only the US has the capability and Volume of assets to get the job done in a decent time scale.
Nah. The AO is much smaller then Libya. The Europeans are up to it, and if Israel was involved it would be even easier.

4) Getting involved in Syria has the potential to become a total war scenario, drawing in Iran, Israle, China, Russia, Turkey, Hezbolla, Hamas etc etc.
Russia would not go to war over Syria. Neither would China. Iran simply can't do anything in Syria, other then some minor support. Turkey would be on the same side as the rest of NATO, if they choose to get involved, same with Israel.

It will take a lot of political manovering and horse trading to keep russia and china out of it, on the level of scrapping the euro ABM shield or letting go of Tiawan.
The Russian's don't really want the BMD gone. They want to be part of it. But yes, giving the Russians full partnership in the BMD shield might do the trick. Letting go of Taiwan isn't even on the table. Nevermind that Taiwan at this point is quite capable of protecting their de-facto independence themselves. This point of yours, however, is the real and biggest objection by far, to an intervention in Syria.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Nah. The AO is much smaller then Libya. The Europeans are up to it, and if Israel was involved it would be even easier.
Israel would keep completely out of it, for the excellent reason that Israeli involvement on the side of the rebels would undercut them, not help them.

Physically much easier than Libya. A much smaller country, with two British bases in Cyprus (but completely exempt from Cypriot control), much closer than any NATO base is to Libya. Akrotiri has a fully-equipped air base. Dhekelia only has a small airfield, but it'd do for UAVs.

Russia would not go to war over Syria. Neither would China. Iran simply can't do anything in Syria, other then some minor support. Turkey would be on the same side as the rest of NATO, if they choose to get involved, same with Israel..
Turkish involvement would make it very easy indeed. All the bases one could possibly want, right next door, & the Turkish air force.

There are also Arab countries which would like to see the Assads out of power: Jordan, & most of the Gulf states. That adds possibilities.

But (to digress into the background for a while) Syria is much better armed than Libya, & the armed forces are probably able to use their weapons better. Assad is less of a loony. I doubt he imagines (as Gaddafi did, from all the evidence) that most people in his country love him. There's no large section of the country controlled by the opposition, as there was in Libya. The scope for collapsing into ethnic & religious strife is vastly more. Libya is very homogeneous: Syria is diverse, with several large minorities, some of which (particularly the Alawites) are over-represented in the hierarchy. Syria is in a more complicated area, with more turbulent neighbours.

It's much more likely to go horribly wrong.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Israel would keep completely out of it, for the excellent reason that Israeli involvement on the side of the rebels would undercut them, not help them.
Good point, you're probably right.

Physically much easier than Libya. A much smaller country, with two British bases in Cyprus (but completely exempt from Cypriot control), much closer than any NATO base is to Libya. Akrotiri has a fully-equipped air base. Dhekelia only has a small airfield, but it'd do for UAVs.


Turkish involvement would make it very easy indeed. All the bases one could possibly want, right next door, & the Turkish air force.
Exactly. It's not a matter of ability, it's a matter of considering the consequences.

There are also Arab countries which would like to see the Assads out of power: Jordan, & most of the Gulf states. That adds possibilities.

But (to digress into the background for a while) Syria is much better armed than Libya, & the armed forces are probably able to use their weapons better. Assad is less of a loony. I doubt he imagines (as Gaddafi did, from all the evidence) that most people in his country love him. There's no large section of the country controlled by the opposition, as there was in Libya. The scope for collapsing into ethnic & religious strife is vastly more. Libya is very homogeneous: Syria is diverse, with several large minorities, some of which (particularly the Alawites) are over-represented in the hierarchy. Syria is in a more complicated area, with more turbulent neighbours.

It's much more likely to go horribly wrong.
They're not much better armed. Certainly not better by enough to make a difference. They have a handful of Fulcrums, and are due some more (24 more) but the bulk of their airforce is the same 3rd gen Soviet stuff. Tom gave a fairly thorough run down of their GBAD, and the only relevant stuff they have are the Buk and Pantsyr systems. If they use them in conjunction, keep them mobile, and coordinate with their Fulcrums, they might be able to cause some damage. Certainly not enough to affect the outcome.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Most of Libya's weapons were in storage, & a very large proportion (e.g. the majority of the tanks) always had been, & there were nowhere near enough trained crews to use them. A relatively small number had to be knocked out to blunt the edge Gaddafi had over the rebels, & produce the stalemate which eventually (with more bombing) swung against him.

Syria has far more weapons with units, & with trained crews, & therefore usable - and numbers of everything are considerably greater: more aircraft, more tanks, more artillery, etc.

Putting the air force out of action wouldn't be the big problem, but what would happen on the ground.
 

Tom Bryceland

New Member
I hope your right about China and to a lesser extent Russia staying out of any involvement in Syria. From a Humanist view point something really needs to be done, but this is not Libya and there are so many ways this could go wrong.

Personally, i think the time is about right for China to start flexing its muscles in the international arena. I would not be suprised if we see something along the lines of a few of their frigates moving to the eastern med and maybe a few last minute arms sales.

And then there is this.

(This is a questionable source, as many of you no doubt know about DEBKA, But they are not the only ones saying this)

Russia boosts Iran's armory with mobile radar-jammers against planes or missiles

DEBKAfile Special Report
October 26, 2011, 2:52 PM (GMT+02:00)
The Russian Aztobaza-ELINT radar jammer

Moscow has sold Iran the highly-advanced Avtobaza truck-mounted systems capable of jamming aircraft radar and the electronic guidance instruments of attacking missiles. The deal, announced in Moscow Tuesday, Oct. 25, substantially boosts Russian military assistance to the Islamic Republic, especially of defensive weaponry. The US and Israel suspect the Avotbaza jammers are only the first installment of the complete ELINT-electronic signals system for disabling planes and missiles over the entire Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.

This is the kind of help i would expect Iran to provide.

In addition, today has been rather disturbing in that the War Drums are getting louder and more mainstream too.

We have Israel publicly stating that they are planning an attack on Iran.
Still no links for me yet, so google: "Benjamin Netanyahu seeks cabinet support for Israeli strike on Iran"

(oddly enough, in the Bush era of doctrine, this would be a clear and legal cause for Iran to make a first strike on Israle. Defensive Pre-Emptive Strike)


Than a little later today we had this from the Guardian:

(Google the Headline)
UK military steps up plans for Iran attack amid fresh nuclear fears
British officials consider contingency options to back up a possible US action as fears mount over Tehran's capability

In this article, its pretty much declared that we will be directly involved if there is an attack on Iran.

Then there was the UN declaration "A Syrian uranium enrichment plant discovered"

And to top off todays headlines, Israle test launchest an ICBM.

I know we were talking about Syria, But i find it difficult to separate these 2 countries and their respective spheres of influence and issues. What happens to one will involve the other.

On the bright side,

I think that Syria is allready seriously weakened with the army defections etc, although their engineer corps have been placing land mines along all their borders, i think this shows that they are expecting trouble to come their way and are now preparing for it.

I think it is safe to say, This war is comming wither we like it or not, and the Mainstream media are all aboard again.
 

davidoga

New Member
Keep in mind why Syrian protests started in the first place: religion and economy.

Religion: The Al-Assad clan is Alawite, while the majority of Syrians are Sunni. Had religious issues been the only grievance, do the Syrian people have the revolt simply because Al-Assad believes in a different sect of Islam? Of course not.

Economy: Traditionally, Syria is a socialist state. Their central economy was working relatively well. Then, Western influence intorduced capitalism, driving up unemployment and ending food/agricultural subsidies. The al-Assad regime, therefore, is not to blame for these hardships.

Arab countries need a strong leader, and democracy is often conducive to the opposite. Al-Assad is still the best option for Syria.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Economy: Traditionally, Syria is a socialist state. Their central economy was working relatively well. Then, Western influence intorduced capitalism, driving up unemployment and ending food/agricultural subsidies. The al-Assad regime, therefore, is not to blame for these hardships.
Care to explain what you mean by this? What immediately comes to mind when people use the term 'socialist state' is a newer concept than 'capitalism'.

Further, I would not exactly describe Syria as a nation over which the West has much influence. Certainly not enough to force Syria to change the economic model being followed. Not to mention that capitalism is not solely a Western economic activity.

From what was posted above, it does sound like the West is being blamed for economic hardships being suffered by Syria. Some clarification would be nice.

-Cheers
 

lucinator

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #13
Keep in mind why Syrian protests started in the first place: religion and economy.

Religion: The Al-Assad clan is Alawite, while the majority of Syrians are Sunni. Had religious issues been the only grievance, do the Syrian people have the revolt simply because Al-Assad believes in a different sect of Islam? Of course not.

Economy: Traditionally, Syria is a socialist state. Their central economy was working relatively well. Then, Western influence intorduced capitalism, driving up unemployment and ending food/agricultural subsidies. The al-Assad regime, therefore, is not to blame for these hardships.

Arab countries need a strong leader, and democracy is often conducive to the opposite. Al-Assad is still the best option for Syria.
I call bull, Al-Assad is DEFINITELY not the best option for Syria. ANY person who tortures kids, and such should not be in power. (granted the US still supports a few)

As for Tom and Israel he might take those statement with a grain of salt. I don't see Israel ever announcing that they are about to attack, its just not the way they do business. This is a warning to the international community that if they don't do something about Iran soon they will.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I call bull, Al-Assad is DEFINITELY not the best option for Syria. ANY person who tortures kids, and such should not be in power. (granted the US still supports a few)
Totally agree with you Lucinator.

As for Tom and Israel he might take those statement with a grain of salt. I don't see Israel ever announcing that they are about to attack, its just not the way they do business. This is a warning to the international community that if they don't do something about Iran soon they will.
I would agree. The Israelis have given the warning and if they need they'll attack like their1980's attack on the Iraq program. The thing that concerns me is that if they do, it could be the tipping point and ignite another regional conflict. I used to respect the Israelis but since Sharon they have gone down a lot in my estimation. They have become arrogant and seem to think that they can act with impunity. It is that attitude that is concerning in an area which is a powder keg with a short lit fuse.

I cannot see a no fly zone being operated in Syrian airspace nor even being entertained by the US. The US has already said that it is not an option. Iran is the other factor. Libya is a long way from Iran but Syria is just over the neighbours fence and Iran supports Assad. Secondly, come 31/12/2011 the last US forces will be out of Iraq and how well will the Iraqi govt be able to secure their borders if they want too? No going into Syria like Libya would be a very bad idea. I agree with Tom about the humanistic side, but armed intervention is not wise. Other means will have to be found.

I see on Aljazeera News Assad has agreed with the Arab mediators to allow them and media in. He has also agreed to withdraw troops from the "occupied" cities, villages etc., and to have, what one hopes, constructive dialogue with the protestors through the Arab mediators. Maybe this is a start in the right direction. I hope so.
 

davidoga

New Member
Care to explain what you mean by this? What immediately comes to mind when people use the term 'socialist state' is a newer concept than 'capitalism'.

Further, I would not exactly describe Syria as a nation over which the West has much influence. Certainly not enough to force Syria to change the economic model being followed. Not to mention that capitalism is not solely a Western economic activity.

From what was posted above, it does sound like the West is being blamed for economic hardships being suffered by Syria. Some clarification would be nice.

-Cheers
I'd be happy to clarify.

Syria has been dominated by the Ba'ath Party, which has a socialist agenda, since 1963. No, the West doesn't not have influence over Syria in the traditional sense, but with the fall of communism in the late 20th century, socialist economies have been drying out. However, know that I think about, Syria used to trade heavily with the Turkey (and the EU to some extent), which are both capitalist-leaning countries.
To my knowledge, capitalism is a Western idea.

I'm not saying that the al-Assad regime is perfect, but it is becoming increasing obvious that Western countries are to blame.

And that BS about Assad killing children and w/e....that happens in most countries in Africa and I'm sure Asia to some extent. I don't massive protests over their administration? Besides, you'd have to be foolish to believe everything that Western media feeds you.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Keep in mind why Syrian protests started in the first place: religion and economy.

Religion: The Al-Assad clan is Alawite, while the majority of Syrians are Sunni. Had religious issues been the only grievance, do the Syrian people have the revolt simply because Al-Assad believes in a different sect of Islam? Of course not.

Economy: Traditionally, Syria is a socialist state. Their central economy was working relatively well. Then, Western influence intorduced capitalism, driving up unemployment and ending food/agricultural subsidies. The al-Assad regime, therefore, is not to blame for these hardships.

Arab countries need a strong leader, and democracy is often conducive to the opposite. Al-Assad is still the best option for Syria.
Their centralised economy was not working well, & capitalism was not introduced by Western influence. The Syrian economy did well in the 1970s, but was stagnant for most of the 1980s & 1990s, & despite growing oil exports, built up big foreign debts. The old system became impossible to maintain. The state no longer had the money to keep huge numbers of people in subsidised jobs, subsidise food, fuel, etc.

It is not at all obvious that Western countries are to blame, any more than they were to blame for the horrors perpetrated by Bashar Assad's father in 1982. Syria's tragedy is home grown.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I'd be happy to clarify.

Syria has been dominated by the Ba'ath Party, which has a socialist agenda, since 1963. No, the West doesn't not have influence over Syria in the traditional sense, but with the fall of communism in the late 20th century, socialist economies have been drying out. However, know that I think about, Syria used to trade heavily with the Turkey (and the EU to some extent), which are both capitalist-leaning countries.
To my knowledge, capitalism is a Western idea.
I woul strongly recommend reading up on economics, both socialist and capitalist in nature, prior to assigning an 'origin' to one particular idea, as well as assigning blame for Syria's economic difficulties.

I especially recommend this when in your post above, you already noted something which was occuring which was NOT due to 'fault' as has been suggested, by the West.

In very brief form, capitalism is an economic model which has no absolute/precise definition which is agreed upon by everyone. It is however generally agreed that economic activity within the model is in private ownership, is conducted for profit/gain, and that there is competition or the potential for competition.

Due to the competitive and profit-driven nature of a capitalist economic, there is usually more of a free market economic influence than some other economic models will have/allow.

Incidentally, capitalism is generally considered the economic model which replace the feudal economic model in the West. Given that the feudal economic began to be displaced in Europe during the Renaissance and was firmly in place at the start of the Industrial Revolution, capitalism is really no longer a 'Western' idea, since it has literally been around and used for centuries. In point of fact, it was the economic activities in capitalism which are generally credited with allowing the industrialization of much of the world in the past two centuries, and the main economic model followed in the global economy. A case in point would be China (PRC) which follows an essentially capitalist economic model, and I doubt anyone would seriously agree that China is a Western-influenced nation.

Now, socialist economies are a bit different. At a basic level, the methods of production are commonly owned/controlled, and their operation is agreed upon by participants. On a practical level, this common ownership/control and operation really does not work except on small/local levels. For a grander scale, such economies are usually centrally planned and run. Operating an economy in such a fashion has been shown historically to be less efficient than free market economies which do not have (or have less) central control over economic activity.

Now, there are two significant reasons why many of the socialist economies 'dried up' as you put it, after the fall of communism. The first is that with the fall of the Soviet Union, which was arguably the largest socialist/centrally run economy, and the reversion of Russia to an essentially capitalist economic model, there were no longer subsidies available for other similar economies within the Soviet sphere of influence. An excellent example of this would be Cuba, which was/is a communist nation with a socialist economic model. Prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union, Cuba received some subsidies from the Soviet Union, as well as the Soviet Union providing an essentially captive market for some of the Cuban exports like tropical fruits, sugar, etc. With Russia reverting back to a capitalist model, and the use of free market economic activity, Cuba suddenly found itself having to compete in terms of quantity, quality and price when attempting to export things like sugar, bananas, etc. This caused some economic hardship within Cuba, because Cuban goods could not always 'win' in terms of price, quality, etc due to the inefficiencies inherent in the economic model Cuba follows, as well as the fact that economic subsidies stopped.

The second reason is one I already mentioned with respect to Cuba. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, in order for socialist countries around the world to engage in economic activity, they needed to export goods and materials. However, since the primary markets for such goods and materials had reverted back to capitalist economic activity, the socialist economies were now competing again with economies from around the world to provide whatever was desired. Since central planning (economically at least) has been demonstrated as being less efficient than other methods, those competing socialist economies started to run into difficulty because they seem to have problems being self-sustaining and efficient.

In short, with Syria, after the end of the Cold War, which basically demonstrated that communist/socialist economic models on a macro scale do not work long-term, Syia suddenly found itself needing to participate in the Global economy. Given the socialist economic model being followed, Syria's economy has/had structural issues which has made it more difficult to compete with products/exports from other nations in the global market place. Economically, the world started to change and Syria apparently had a problem keeping up, that is an issue of Syria's not something to be blamed on the West, or the world.

-Cheers
 

My2Cents

Active Member
A No Fly zone there is a whole new Ballgame, for a number of reasons, it would be difficult, but that should not factor into the decision.

1) It would Not be a UN Mission this time. No chance that Russia and China will allow it. "Insta-Veto"
The “Insta-Veto” will be wielded for the maximum political gain, if at all. Russia and China are more likely to just abstain like last time if the measure is requested by the Islamic states bloc. However, the Islamic states bloc will be far more restrained about asking for a no fly zone because they did not expect the strength of the response that they got in Libya. Though in retrospect it should have been fairly obvious what would happen, the NATO countries were not going to allow their aircraft to be used for targets or hang around indefinitely.
2) Syria has a mutual defence pact with Iran. (sorry cant post links)
So what? Syria and Iran do not have a common border. Any support from Iran has to come through Iraq or Turkey to get to Syria. Turkey can handle anything Iran sends their way. Iraq just has to say the word and the US pull-out is reversed. Either would be bad for Iran.
Estamated Syrian Air Defence Force as per (As Per Wikipedia)
Libya had more in every category, didn’t do them much good.

One piece of good news for Syria, the Libyan operation has led to shortages in a number of long range smart munitions (the types you use to take out SAM sites), for at least a year.
4) Getting involved in Syria has the potential to become a total war scenario, drawing in Iran, Israle, China, Russia, Turkey, Hezbolla, Hamas etc etc.

It will take a lot of political manovering and horse trading to keep russia and china out of it, on the level of scrapping the euro ABM shield or letting go of Tiawan.
Russia and China are not going to anger the Islamic bloc by supporting Syria if the bloc pushs for a no-fly zone. NATO is not going to anger the Islamic bloc by setting up a Syrian no-fly zone without a definitive request from the bloc (probably in the form of a UN resolution).

Israel is only important if they refuse to hunker down and stay out of things when Syria tries to draw them in to make it an Arab-vs.-Israel fight. They already know that. Hamas and Hezbollah can’t change that significantly without exposing themselves too much to Israeli attack. Yes, Hezbollah won the last round. But Israel learned a lot more than they did, and is a lot better prepared this time. And if Syria goes down anyhow, Hezbollah will not be able to rebuild again.

The critical state is Turkey. If Turkey supports a no-fly zone and allows NATO to use their airbases it works. Otherwise the no-fly zone fails.
 

davidoga

New Member
I woul strongly recommend reading up on economics, both socialist and capitalist in nature, prior to assigning an 'origin' to one particular idea, as well as assigning blame for Syria's economic difficulties.

I especially recommend this when in your post above, you already noted something which was occuring which was NOT due to 'fault' as has been suggested, by the West.

In very brief form, capitalism is an economic model which has no absolute/precise definition which is agreed upon by everyone. It is however generally agreed that economic activity within the model is in private ownership, is conducted for profit/gain, and that there is competition or the potential for competition.

Due to the competitive and profit-driven nature of a capitalist economic, there is usually more of a free market economic influence than some other economic models will have/allow.

Incidentally, capitalism is generally considered the economic model which replace the feudal economic model in the West. Given that the feudal economic began to be displaced in Europe during the Renaissance and was firmly in place at the start of the Industrial Revolution, capitalism is really no longer a 'Western' idea, since it has literally been around and used for centuries. In point of fact, it was the economic activities in capitalism which are generally credited with allowing the industrialization of much of the world in the past two centuries, and the main economic model followed in the global economy. A case in point would be China (PRC) which follows an essentially capitalist economic model, and I doubt anyone would seriously agree that China is a Western-influenced nation.

Now, socialist economies are a bit different. At a basic level, the methods of production are commonly owned/controlled, and their operation is agreed upon by participants. On a practical level, this common ownership/control and operation really does not work except on small/local levels. For a grander scale, such economies are usually centrally planned and run. Operating an economy in such a fashion has been shown historically to be less efficient than free market economies which do not have (or have less) central control over economic activity.

Now, there are two significant reasons why many of the socialist economies 'dried up' as you put it, after the fall of communism. The first is that with the fall of the Soviet Union, which was arguably the largest socialist/centrally run economy, and the reversion of Russia to an essentially capitalist economic model, there were no longer subsidies available for other similar economies within the Soviet sphere of influence. An excellent example of this would be Cuba, which was/is a communist nation with a socialist economic model. Prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union, Cuba received some subsidies from the Soviet Union, as well as the Soviet Union providing an essentially captive market for some of the Cuban exports like tropical fruits, sugar, etc. With Russia reverting back to a capitalist model, and the use of free market economic activity, Cuba suddenly found itself having to compete in terms of quantity, quality and price when attempting to export things like sugar, bananas, etc. This caused some economic hardship within Cuba, because Cuban goods could not always 'win' in terms of price, quality, etc due to the inefficiencies inherent in the economic model Cuba follows, as well as the fact that economic subsidies stopped.

The second reason is one I already mentioned with respect to Cuba. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, in order for socialist countries around the world to engage in economic activity, they needed to export goods and materials. However, since the primary markets for such goods and materials had reverted back to capitalist economic activity, the socialist economies were now competing again with economies from around the world to provide whatever was desired. Since central planning (economically at least) has been demonstrated as being less efficient than other methods, those competing socialist economies started to run into difficulty because they seem to have problems being self-sustaining and efficient.

In short, with Syria, after the end of the Cold War, which basically demonstrated that communist/socialist economic models on a macro scale do not work long-term, Syia suddenly found itself needing to participate in the Global economy. Given the socialist economic model being followed, Syria's economy has/had structural issues which has made it more difficult to compete with products/exports from other nations in the global market place. Economically, the world started to change and Syria apparently had a problem keeping up, that is an issue of Syria's not something to be blamed on the West, or the world.

-Cheers
It's hard to counter your arguements when they are irrelevant to what I am saying. By the way, I am a third-year economics major at UChicago; my knowledge of econ is fine.

Capitalism, as it is defined by Adam Smith (along with David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, etc.), is a Western idea. I never said that it was confined there, but you will notice that any country that has a capitalist system has at one point been in the sphere of a Western country.

Yes, you are right about the Soviet economy being less that exemplary. However, the assumption that, because the Russians couldn't effectively administer a centrally-planned economy, socialism does not work is false. Other factors, such as an autarkic trade policy, authoritarian leaders, and the Cold War contributed to the Soviet decline. That does not in any way prove that socailist economies do not work well.

Cuba is not a valid example because it would have relied on foreign support one way or another, albeit from the United States had it not been for Castro.

China, as you mentioned, has adoped more capitalist practices, but they are still in combination with socialism. The suppression of the yuan is hardly a free-market practice. To claim that China could have achieved such a level of production through capitalistic practices is absurd.

Socialist economies are a new idea. I'm sure that, in the first 100 years, capitalist systems did not work very well either. In fact, as shown by the Occupy Wall Street movement, they are no that great now either.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Perhaps you need to study more history.

Syria adopted a socialist economic model 15-20 years after independence. It never had a fully centrally planned economy, as in the USSR. A sizable proportion of the economy remained in private hands. Note that the private sector was much the same as it was before any significant Western influence. The state controlled modern industries, such as cement, chemicals, steel, oil, & railways (always state-owned, since Turkish rule). In the 1960s nationalised many of the new manufacturing enterprises set up by local merchants & landowners (i.e. the only people with capital - capitalists), & it also built a lot of new heavy industry. But a significant proportion of industry remained in private hands, along with most trade, other services, & agriculture.

Note that: Syria was a capitalist economy until the 1960s, albeit one at a low state of development.

The state built numerous plants which operated vastly below capacity, because they were built without regard to the availability of materials, costs, or markets for their output. In one case, a paper mill was built, designed to use straw as a feedstock - but the planners hadn't taken account of the availability of straw. There wasn't enough to operate it at capacity, & it was too costly to import. Syria continued to import paper, & the mill produced low quality paper at high cost. Ditto with a sugar mill using sugar beet. And so on . . .

Since many of these new factories had been built with borrowed money, Syria built up big debts. It was subsidised by the Saudis et al for a while, & had oil as a buffer, but was still treading water for many years, with factories gradually falling apart as they failed to earn enough even to maintain themselves, or replace machinery as it wore out.

This is what you call successful? It wasn't as bad as North Korea, but then it had never turned into a fully state-controlled economy.

I think you need to look at how things work in practice, rather than in theory. Consider, for example, the Soviet food processing industry, which is now universally agreed to have been subtracting value in the 1970s & 1980s, taking wholesome, valuable fresh food (meat, fish, vegetables, fruit) & turning it into low-grade sausage, tinned food, etc. There were exceptions, of course: I found the bread & (to my surprise) the ice cream very good when I visited the USSR 30 years ago, but the rest . . . . what a waste! This was due to the nature of central planning.

The Soviet authorities tried very hard to plan for everything, but they failed. Managers work to the target. That can mean you have too many big nails & not enough small ones, because the target is set in weight (it happened). You set the target in numbers for a while, to overcome the shortage of small nails, while you try to work out how many nails of each size are needed, & then set targets for every size of nail. And so on, for millions upon millions of separate items.

You've never seen that system in operation. I have. Read up on it in practice. Ask people who've studied it in detail, preferably with first hand experience. The USSR had to tolerate the black market because in practice, it filled gaps in the system. Factories often bought materials & spares on the black market, because the planning system couldn't provide them.

This isn't a matter of it being a new system. This got worse over time. The more complex & sophisticated the economy became, the more gaps appeared. The system was grinding to a halt. The economies of all the Soviet block countries were stagnant or declining by the late 1980s. It wasn't a cyclical problem, but a systemic one.

Note that under Turkish & French rule, the economic role of the state in Syria was mostly limited to large scale infrastructure, such as roads, railways & ports. Industrial & commercial enterprises were almost all owned by local capitalists.
 
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