Go Back   DefenceTalk Forum - Military & Defense Forums > Global Defense & Military > Geo-strategic Issues

Defense News
Land, Air & Naval Forces






Military Photos
Latest Military Pictures
Defense Reports
Aerospace & Defence


Russia's Arctic Expansion

This is a discussion on Russia's Arctic Expansion within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by 2007yellow430 Laurelle's books are quite pricey. Any suggestions about where to get them at a reasonable price, ...


Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old September 27th, 2014   #16
Grumpy Old Man
General
gf0012-aust's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 17,997
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2007yellow430 View Post
Laurelle's books are quite pricey. Any suggestions about where to get them at a reasonable price, tried Amazon, but didn't have her book, new or used.
I think I paid about $40 for mine a while back. Originally sourced from Fishpond
She also writes an excellent book on the rise of Russian nationalism
________________
A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
http://cofda.wordpress.com/

gf a.k.a. ROBOPIMP T5C
gf0012-aust is offline  
Old September 27th, 2014   #17
Super Moderator
General
Feanor's Avatar
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Under your bed. No seriously, take a look.
Posts: 14,998
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexkvaskov View Post
Do you know more about this?
What exactly are you asking? The program envisioned a mass production starting in 2015, and re-arming 100% of the military by 2020. The timetable was adjusted to 2016, and the figures to 70%. Now even that is in question. There was an announcement recently that the armor for the next-gen platforms (i.e. the material) would start state trials soon. The vehicles will be seen on parade in 2015, but it will be a batch of ten vehicles, likely pre-serial models. Experimental exploitation will start, best case scenario, in 2016, but mass production and serial deliveries (real ones) will probably come in 2017-18.

Mokrushin actually participated in Kara Summer 2014, which is a Rosneft expedition to the Arctic. His posts on the subject can be read here, with the tag экспедиция. They are, of course, in Russia but even the photos are worth looking at.

http://twower.livejournal.com/tag/%D...86%D0%B8%D1%8F
Feanor is offline  
Old September 27th, 2014   #18
Defense Aficionado
Major General
John Fedup's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Vancouver and Toronto
Posts: 2,342
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2007yellow430 View Post
Laurelle's books are quite pricey. Any suggestions about where to get them at a reasonable price, tried Amazon, but didn't have her book, new or used.

I have been checking pricing on these books as well and prices seem to very but in Canada both are in the $25-40 range. Might try the local library.
John Fedup is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #19
Senior Member
Lieutenant Colonel
No Avatar
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,104
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humming Drone View Post
Here's some food for thought:

Exxon, Rosneft Find Oil at Arctic Well - WSJ

I don't think anyone would argue that Russia has its eye on the Arctic because of economic incentives. And of course that's where politics come into play as well.
In the Kara Sea off Franz Josef Land. Exploration has been ongoing for over a decade. The real question is 'Can it be developed?'
  • Deep water
  • Lousy climate limits access, so a short drilling season and limited surface export.
  • All subsea with tieback to an undeveloped piece of land with limited access. At least it is a gas play, which they can export by pipeline.
Its going to be a cast iron b***h, if doable at all.
My2Cents is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #20
Defense Enthusiast
Captain
No Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 741
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
the norwegians have withdrawn technical support to russian offshore platforms. over 50% of the tech on offshore rigs is "western" - and most of that is norwegian.

the russians have been progressively banning various types of norwegian fish over the last 6 months.
Only if the platforms are oil, gas projects are still firmly on the table and Norwegian companies are still selling services with Foreign Ministry approvals.

The fish is interesting, Kirill a colleague of mine told me the other day Norwegian salmon now comes into Russia via Belarus, it's a little bit more expensive but you can still get it.
KiwiRob is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #21
Super Moderator
General
Feanor's Avatar
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Under your bed. No seriously, take a look.
Posts: 14,998
Threads:
OSC North is getting the project 21180 icebreakers, as well as unspecified patrol ships and support vessels, designed for operating in those waters.

ОСК уже создает корабли и суда для командования "Север"
http://admship.ru/wp-content/uploads.../adm_08_14.pdf

It looks like these plans were in the works for a while.
Feanor is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #22
Grumpy Old Man
General
gf0012-aust's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 17,997
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiwiRob View Post
Only if the platforms are oil, gas projects are still firmly on the table and Norwegian companies are still selling services with Foreign Ministry approvals.
deep sea projects are all on the embargo table - the majority of tech support, technology etc is western - and the estimates are that up to half of the tech and expertise is norwegian.

Quote:
The fish is interesting, Kirill a colleague of mine told me the other day Norwegian salmon now comes into Russia via Belarus, it's a little bit more expensive but you can still get it.
it's also helped that russian industry has bitterly complained as some of the targeted species seriously impact on basic food supply and processing, so Putin has "exempted" some species from bans as they are now covered under a "national interest" clause.

A number of Norwegian think tanks (equiv to ISS and ASPI) are detailing the impacts
________________
A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
http://cofda.wordpress.com/

gf a.k.a. ROBOPIMP T5C
gf0012-aust is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #23
Defense Enthusiast
Captain
No Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 741
Threads:
gf0012 the EU and Norway only sanctioned oil not gas, which is why the Yamal LNG project is still on the table. This is being worked on by Technip and JGC, orders are being placed and delivered. I have an email from the Norwegian Foreign Office spelling out very clearly what projects can and can't be delivered to. Oil off the table, gas good to go, which makes no sense at all.

I believe more Norwegian companies are impacted by the Norwegian govt sanctions then the Russian sanctions. A lot of companies I know with significant exposure to Russia are suffering.
KiwiRob is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #24
Grumpy Old Man
General
gf0012-aust's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 17,997
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiwiRob View Post
gf0012 the EU and Norway only sanctioned oil not gas, which is why the Yamal LNG project is still on the table. This is being worked on by Technip and JGC, orders are being placed and delivered. I have an email from the Norwegian Foreign Office spelling out very clearly what projects can and can't be delivered to. Oil off the table, gas good to go, which makes no sense at all.

I believe more Norwegian companies are impacted by the Norwegian govt sanctions then the Russian sanctions. A lot of companies I know with significant exposure to Russia are suffering.
the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path. they are more than curious that after decades of fish exports that all of a sudden norwegian fish have been failing health checks and were starting to be progressively banned

the issue of banning tech support to the russians has been flagged and identified for at least the last 6 months of various briefs and reports that cross my desk. NG is also willing to change the mix as there is a view that the russians are using trade as a variation of the "finlandisation" of baltic neighbours.
________________
A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
http://cofda.wordpress.com/

gf a.k.a. ROBOPIMP T5C
gf0012-aust is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #25
Super Moderator
General
Feanor's Avatar
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Under your bed. No seriously, take a look.
Posts: 14,998
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path. they are more than curious that after decades of fish exports that all of a sudden norwegian fish have been failing health checks and were starting to be progressively banned
There is nothing curious about this. Anybody who follows Russian government actions should know that Rospotrebnadzor is an agency that, in addition to legitimate consumer safety, acts as an instrument of Russian political pressure on neighboring countries by banning products under the guise of "safety". It's a clear, blatantly obvious, message being sent to Norway.

Quote:
the issue of banning tech support to the russians has been flagged and identified for at least the last 6 months of various briefs and reports that cross my desk. NG is also willing to change the mix as there is a view that the russians are using trade as a variation of the "finlandisation" of baltic neighbours.
Can you elaborate on that last sentence? What do you mean by finlandisation?
Feanor is offline  
Old September 28th, 2014   #26
Grumpy Old Man
General
gf0012-aust's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 17,997
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor View Post
Can you elaborate on that last sentence? What do you mean by finlandisation?
________________
A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
http://cofda.wordpress.com/

gf a.k.a. ROBOPIMP T5C
gf0012-aust is offline  
Old September 29th, 2014   #27
Super Moderator
General
Feanor's Avatar
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Under your bed. No seriously, take a look.
Posts: 14,998
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
Interesting. I think they're right about Russia wanting to do this to the Baltics.
Feanor is offline  
Old September 29th, 2014   #28
Defense Enthusiast
Captain
No Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 741
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path.
So is this your round about way of agreeing with me that gas projects are not covered by the sanctions. The EU have also not sanctioned the gas sector, it's only the US who have sanctioned both.

I am really looking forward to seeing the outcome of Exxon defying the US sanctions and forging ahead with it's drilling program in Sakhalin. Sanctions will cost them, Exxon, billions.

Exxon Riles U.S., EU by Using Sanctions Loophole - Bloomberg

This article from Time is also well worth a read, it's wrapped the whole conflict up nicely and if you read the last paragraph makes you wonder what all the fuss is about, all those people killed for nothing IMO, especially since the EU has given Russia what it wanted in the first place, as seat at the table.

How Putin Got His Way In Ukraine
KiwiRob is offline  
Old September 29th, 2014   #29
Defense Enthusiast
Captain
No Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 741
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor View Post
Interesting. I think they're right about Russia wanting to do this to the Baltics.
Which is what the US has been doing in Central and South America since forever, there is no difference between Russian policy and the Monroe Doctrine IMO, even though Kerry has said it's dead (yeah right).
KiwiRob is offline  
Old September 29th, 2014   #30
Grumpy Old Man
General
gf0012-aust's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 17,997
Threads:
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiwiRob View Post
So is this your round about way of agreeing with me that gas projects are not covered by the sanctions. The EU have also not sanctioned the gas sector, it's only the US who have sanctioned both.
I hope you're not trolling here - I've been quite clear that I'm citing material on what I see on regular alerts and briefs. I'm not in the mood for snarky commentary

I note you're happy to defend russian interests a number of times, and if thats based on your own vested interests so be it

it doesn't alter what I see and what has been appearing about russian behaviour in the last 3 years and what comes out of analysts shops like NUPI. Russia is highly dependant on western tech to get some of their deep sea resource mgt working - and there has been increasing persistent discussions that Norway should withdraw people and tech support

there's even data which states how long it would take for russian rigs to fail if baltic specialists are withdrawn

quite frankly there are some in NG who are fed up with russian blackmail of norwegian transnational trade.
________________
A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
http://cofda.wordpress.com/

gf a.k.a. ROBOPIMP T5C
gf0012-aust is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:16 PM.