Russia no longer a reliable supplier?

[spikehades]

With the cancellation of the S-300 contract to Iran, the recent announcement of delaying indefinitely weapons shipments to Syria and the refusal to sell jet engines and other weapons to china, added to the growth of alternative good value alternative weapons suppliers does this mean the end of the Russian arms industry?
Many Russian projects cannot be completed without outside financial assistance (PAK-FA) and others cannot be implemented without guaranteed export customers. Can the Russians afford to damage their MIC in return for short term political expediency. It is disconcerting to see that the Russians are no longer good to their word and are likely to dishonour their contracts. This is certainly a win scenario for China et al and bad news for poorer countries who rely on Russian arms in order to ward off foreign aggression.

 

[PhysicsMan]

With the cancellation of the S-300 contract to Iran, the recent announcement of delaying indefinitely weapons shipments to Syria and the refusal to sell jet engines and other weapons to china, added to the growth of alternative good value alternative weapons suppliers does this mean the end of the Russian arms industry?
Many Russian projects cannot be completed without outside financial assistance (PAK-FA) and others cannot be implemented without guaranteed export customers. Can the Russians afford to damage their MIC in return for short term political expediency. It is disconcerting to see that the Russians are no longer good to their word and are likely to dishonour their contracts. This is certainly a win scenario for China et al and bad news for poorer countries who rely on Russian arms in order to ward off foreign aggression.

The Iranian contract was cancelled under international pressure, mainly from Israel and US. There were no delays of any Syrian contracts, they fulfilled all existing ones (including maintenance services). They announced that they would not move forward with any new contracts while the civil war is ongoing (in spirit with UN and other international agreements being reached right now, despite their support for the current government). And, finally, they are more than happy to sell to China, as long as China buys sufficient quantities (in light of their copyright violations practices).
Refusing to sell to international outcasts and/or dictatorships in times of war or near war hardly qualifies as reputation-damaging. Even the Chinese probably wouldn't sell such weaponry as S-300 knock-offs to Iran at this time (nor anything to Syria for that matter).

 

[Lcf]

The Iranian contract was cancelled under international pressure, mainly from Israel and US. There were no delays of any Syrian contracts, they fulfilled all existing ones (including maintenance services). They announced that they would not move forward with any new contracts while the civil war is ongoing (in spirit with UN and other international agreements being reached right now, despite their support for the current government). And, finally, they are more than happy to sell to China, as long as China buys sufficient quantities (in light of their copyright violations practices).
Refusing to sell to international outcasts and/or dictatorships in times of war or near war hardly qualifies as reputation-damaging. Even the Chinese probably wouldn't sell such weaponry as S-300 knock-offs to Iran at this time (nor anything to Syria for that matter).

I agree, even under US and Israeli pressure they're fulfilling all the existing contracts with Syria. We can only assume what's going on "under the radar".
As for the PAK FA, sure it's being developed in cooperation with India but nevertheless, it's still a Russian project and the Indians will get only the export version.
And as we can see, even the US is developing its fifth generation aircraft in cooperation with its partners from NATO and yet it's not something that could damage its reputation of reliable arms exporter.

 

[surpreme]

With the cancellation of the S-300 contract to Iran, the recent announcement of delaying indefinitely weapons shipments to Syria and the refusal to sell jet engines and other weapons to china, added to the growth of alternative good value alternative weapons suppliers does this mean the end of the Russian arms industry?
Many Russian projects cannot be completed without outside financial assistance (PAK-FA) and others cannot be implemented without guaranteed export customers. Can the Russians afford to damage their MIC in return for short term political expediency. It is disconcerting to see that the Russians are no longer good to their word and are likely to dishonour their contracts. This is certainly a win scenario for China et al and bad news for poorer countries who rely on Russian arms in order to ward off foreign aggression.

I agree, once you signed a contact you should keep your obligation. In the business world people take the time to finally a deal before it a go and that sometimes it take weeks or years. A company that can't keep it deals are not reliable bottom line. I don't know why all sudden Russia want to bow down to the west I guess it don't have a choice now. The world is totally different today than 50 years ago so It must be great to be the only superpower in the world the great United States of America. I still don't understand why they didn't forfield the deal with Iran. I know everyone said outside pressure is what cause Russia to cancel the deal. Overall as they said in the streets that being soft to bow to other countryor pressure from other countries. Overall I agree that they should have kept it contract obligation. Believe it or not other countries are watching what Russia do.

 

[Twain]

I agree, once you signed a contact you should keep your obligation. In the business world people take the time to finally a deal before it a go and that sometimes it take weeks or years. A company that can't keep it deals are not reliable bottom line. I don't know why all sudden Russia want to bow down to the west I guess it don't have a choice now. The world is totally different today than 50 years ago so It must be great to be the only superpower in the world the great United States of America. I still don't understand why they didn't forfield the deal with Iran. I know everyone said outside pressure is what cause Russia to cancel the deal. Overall as they said in the streets that being soft to bow to other countryor pressure from other countries. Overall I agree that they should have kept it contract obligation. Believe it or not other countries are watching what Russia do.

I am sure political pressure is playing a role but Russia may also be hedging it's bets. If Assad loses, Russia could find itself in the same position China is now finding itself in with Libya. China had a some oil development contracts with the Gadhafi gov't that are now very much in jeopardy due to their backing of Gadhafi.

 

[spikehades]

I don't think Russia is doing herself any favours. Every country abandoned equals less influence in the geopolitical arena. When Russia eventually runs out of strategic levers and can no longer play the quid pro quo game with NATO - no one will take notice. Libya, Syria, then Iran who's next? Ukraine? Belarus?

 

[zmoreira]

Many Russian projects cannot be completed without outside financial assistance (PAK-FA).

How many rubles have the Indians contributed so far?

 

[Supermoves]

I think Russia's problem is that they have spread themselves too thin and with the wrong crowd in a rush to challenge America's supremacy.

Also, todays global economy means that the Russian economy is tied to economic cooperation of the very country they are trying to compete with. And ours with them. Recently the US normalized trade relations with Russia since the first time since the cold war. I would almost guarantee that was the cause for their "reversal" on missiles to Iran. And as another poster stated, it was international pressure that led to the Syrian reversal. It took two public massacres and international pressure before they even talked about not sending things to Syria. And it has been all but proven that they are sending supplies anyway.

 

[spikehades]

I think Russia's problem is that they have spread themselves too thin and with the wrong crowd in a rush to challenge America's supremacy.

Also, todays global economy means that the Russian economy is tied to economic cooperation of the very country they are trying to compete with. And ours with them. Recently the US normalized trade relations with Russia since the first time since the cold war. I would almost guarantee that was the cause for their "reversal" on missiles to Iran. And as another poster stated, it was international pressure that led to the Syrian reversal. It took two public massacres and international pressure before they even talked about not sending things to Syria. And it has been all but proven that they are sending supplies anyway.

I think Russia has a moral obligation to assist a long time ally like Assad to help defeat the western sponsored terrorists that are destroying the country. Additionally, if Assad falls, Russia loses its military base, regional influence, and world wide respect.

 

[Marc 1]

I agree, once you signed a contact you should keep your obligation. In the business world people take the time to finally a deal before it a go and that sometimes it take weeks or years. A company that can't keep it deals are not reliable bottom line. .

Before standing too straight on that soap box, I wonder how many contracts US companies broke after the Shah of Iran was deposed? The US has done everything possible to ensure the US equipment in Iran were deprived of spare parts etc too.

 

[Twain]

I think Russia has a moral obligation to assist a long time ally like Assad to help defeat the western sponsored terrorists that are destroying the country.

I'm not sure many if any countries ever act out of a moral obligation, particularly when it comes to military intervention or supplying weapons, they act in what they see as their best interests, morality usually comes in a distant second at best.

Additionally, if Assad falls, Russia loses its military base, regional influence, and world wide respect.

The base at Tartus has been described as little more than a dock, a supply ship and a warehouse. Take a look at some satellite photos, the base isn't the issue. At most it is a refueling port that would be quickly put out of action if the shooting ever started. It is however about Russian influence in the middle east, Syria is their last remaining ally in the region.

Now a question for everyone here, does anyone have any good information about the situation in Syria? Press reports are very contradictory. It looks like the Syrian army is stuck playing whack-a-mole with the FSA and the moles are popping up quicker then the Syrian army can respond?

 

[surpreme]

Before standing too straight on that soap box, I wonder how many contracts US companies broke after the Shah of Iran was deposed? The US has done everything possible to ensure the US equipment in Iran were deprived of spare parts etc too.

Look what happen you had Iranian holding US citizens I can understand why that was broken.

 

[STURM]

The US has done everything possible to ensure the US equipment in Iran were deprived of spare parts etc too.

There were large stockpiles in place but American advisers, before leaving, took the codes and inventories with them. Through trial and error, and lots of patience, the Iranians eventually found out what they had and gained access to their large stocks of spares - this played a huge part in the Iranian Air Force being able to continue its operations against Iraq. Ironically enough, it was the Shah who saved the F-14 programme. When funds were withheld by Congress, the Shah provide Grumman with a huge loan to continue development. Details are in Iran/Iraq War In The Air by Tom Cooper and Farzad Bishop.