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The Problem with Afghanistan

This is a discussion on The Problem with Afghanistan within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Well it depends; if the Hellfires and Brimestones also end up killing civilians then IS gets more recruits. A possibility ...


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Old August 8th, 2016   #31
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Well it depends; if the Hellfires and Brimestones also end up killing civilians then IS gets more recruits. A possibility off course is working with the Taliban to target IS - benefits the West, the Kabul government and theTaliban. Sounds far fetch no doubt but there have been talks with the Taliban, in the realisation that the Taliban has not been defeated and is here to stay. This is a far cry from the days when we were told how there is no place for the Taliban in Afghanistan and that the Talibs would be defeated.
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Old August 8th, 2016   #32
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Well it depends; if the Hellfires and Brimestones also end up killing civilians then IS gets more recruits. A possibility off course is working with the Taliban to target IS - benefits the West, the Kabul government and theTaliban. Sounds far fetch no doubt but there have been talks with the Taliban, in the realisation that the Taliban has not been defeated and is here to stay. This is a far cry from the days when we were told how there is no place for the Taliban in Afghanistan and that the Talibs would be defeated.
Agreed. I guess it now boils down to the lesser of two evils for Afghanistan.
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Old October 3rd, 2016   #33
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Taliban launches major assault on Kunduz, Afghanistan - CNN.com

What a failed state. Does anyone else think that the government there is barely being propped up and things could snowball very quickly out of control?

I believe USA will be forced to ramp up their military involvement with more boots on the ground. It will be another proof that their policies have failed and they have been trapped in another quagmire.
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Old October 4th, 2016   #34
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Taliban launches major assault on Kunduz, Afghanistan - CNN.com

What a failed state. Does anyone else think that the government there is barely being propped up and things could snowball very quickly out of control?

I believe USA will be forced to ramp up their military involvement with more boots on the ground. It will be another proof that their policies have failed and they have been trapped in another quagmire.
I don't know if leaving behind 8500 troops would entail a quagmire, more of a stabilizing force to back up the Afghan Army They mainly are in a supporting role and enable CAS, Intel, etc. can also perform raids on high value targets as needed
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Old October 4th, 2016   #35
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I believe USA will be forced to ramp up their military involvement with more boots on the ground.
''Boots on the ground'' will still not lead to the defeat of the Taliban. If it did, the Taliban would have been defeated years ago. The Talibs are here to stay and some form of political sharing agreement must be reached with them. Military means have clearly failed. The Talibs know that despite their widespread support [mostly in rural areas where the government has traditionally been weak] that they can never hope to gain control of the whole country. What the U.S. can do - what it should have done alongside coalition partners years ago - is to pressure the government in Kabul to undertake rural wide reforms intended to win more local support

Afghanistan: Taliban pushes into Uruzgan's Tarinkot - News from Al Jazeera

[Ahmed Rashid On Afghanistan's Challenges In 2016]
http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/ahmed...enges-in-2016/

[Afghanistan Taliban: Can Talks Succeed?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35663214
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Old October 4th, 2016   #36
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Hahaha, you didn't understand me. The defeat of the Taliban would not be the goal of more boots on the ground, but propping up the failed government.
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Old October 4th, 2016   #37
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Hahaha, you didn't understand me. The defeat of the Taliban would not be the goal of more boots on the ground, but propping up the failed government.
How long do you think the ''boots on the ground'' will remain there? Another 15 years or 25 perhaps? What will it achieve?

[15 Years In The Afghan Crucible]
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/op...ible.html?_r=0
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Old October 8th, 2016   #38
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Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a warlord who during the Soviet occupation spent more time fighting fellow Afghans and who was the favourite of IS when it came to receiving military aid provided courtesy of the U.S. and Saudi, is now one of the good chaps, having signed an agreement with the government of Afghanistan. Whilst serving as the Prime Minister of Afghanistan he shelled his own capital during operations conducted against Ahmad Shah Massud's Jamiat Islami and his Hezb-i-Islami fighters were just as radical as the Talibs; committing several well documented atrocities. I wonder how Afghans who lost family members or friends at the hands of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar feel about this agreement. No doubt it's intended to isolate the Taliban but will any good come out of it?

Afghanistan: Hezb-i-Islami armed group signs peace deal - News from Al Jazeera

The invasion of Afghanistan 15 years ago was an arrogant, wretched adventure that caused a migrant crisis | The Independent
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Old October 8th, 2016   #39
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Good to see these moderate power brokers leading their country towards peace. You cannot argue with the stabilising results of the USA's partner building strategy.

https://i.imgur.com/CRaBPOx.jpg
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Old October 8th, 2016   #40
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Yes. Next we'll probably see the Taliban and Haqqani's people rushing to Kabul to sign peace agreements ......
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Old March 17th, 2017   #41
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Soon it will be summer in Afghanistan and so the per-usual Taliban offensive.

I have some friends that side (South African). Some of them took leave recently so they can rest before their return, before the coming “season”. Most of them work for contractors. The pay is damn good and you can’t really spend that side.

I have been told that no amount of investment will subdue the tribal areas. Certain tribes will fight Whoever enters Their valley.

Culture and terrain make this country not only ungovernable but unconquerable. Inter-tribal multifarious conflict makes for a situation so complex that victory in the common sense of the term seems near impossible.
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Old March 17th, 2017   #42
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Soon it will be summer in Afghanistan and so the per-usual Taliban offensive.

I have some friends that side (South African). Some of them took leave recently so they can rest before their return, before the coming “season”. Most of them work for contractors. The pay is damn good and you can’t really spend that side.

I have been told that no amount of investment will subdue the tribal areas. Certain tribes will fight Whoever enters Their valley.

Culture and terrain make this country not only ungovernable but unconquerable. Inter-tribal multifarious conflict makes for a situation so complex that victory in the common sense of the term seems near impossible.
been discussed on here numerous times before.

the identity is towards family, then clan, then historical ties to region - they don't regard themselves as afghanis, there is no national identity per se except in govt

and they will fight anyone who comes into their tribal regions.. its very similar to pakistan and the nw frontier. more to the point they will befriend out of convenience to any power that can neutralise old enemies and then turn on their new found friends once their traditional enemies have been neutralised
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Old March 17th, 2017   #43
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No trust. Yet the US and others have spent millions trying to secure it. Nuts. Cooperation? They seem helpful at first, are helpful at first, only until Sunday... Cold hard cash for securing a valley, and one month later they demand more. Even when we pay it, it only lasts as long as their greed fulfilment – which is an endless pit. Constant deliberations and negotiations, more money.. I believe the American technical term is called a Cluster F.
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Old March 17th, 2017   #44
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No trust. Yet the US and others have spent millions trying to secure it. Nuts. Cooperation? They seem helpful at first, are helpful at first, only until Sunday... Cold hard cash for securing a valley, and one month later they demand more. Even when we pay it, it only lasts as long as their greed fulfilment – which is an endless pit. Constant deliberations and negotiations, more money.. I believe the American technical term is called a Cluster F.
more than a western or modern conceptual issue of "trust"

its a cultural disconnect. nation states will struggle to manage non state actors and where the NSActors have different drivers.

thinking that money can change cultural behaviour doesn't work
thinking that overwhelming traditional force can change cultural behaviour doesn't work
thinking that alliances can change cultural behaviour doesn't work
thinking that long term nation state relationships can change cultural behaviour doesn't work

you're talking about a country when the UN recognised entity is not even recognised by parts of its own population (tribe and clan driven)
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Old March 17th, 2017   #45
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I am talking about current Afghanistan, current practices.
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