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This is a discussion on North Korean Military. within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by supercomrade On a side note, how would one would a win a war against NK? What I ...


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Old September 7th, 2017   #586
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On a side note, how would one would a win a war against NK?

What I mean by this is, if a coalition invaded them, at what point do they stop fighting?

I do not see any scenarios where NK waves a white flag like a normal country that is getting beat, and does not want to take anymore losses.

Even if coalition forces kill the leader Kim, would NK give up?

Sorta curious how you get them to surrender as an entire country.
What would happen if the NK government was decapitated is a huge unknown. Is the NK population so brainwashed they would follow Kim into oblivion, who knows? Realistically and unfortunately, any conflict would likely go nuclear and render this question moot, there won't be anyone left to fight on.
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Old September 7th, 2017   #587
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Worst case scenarios would typically mean systems like BMD have minimal impact, if they are even functional.

While having BMD systems (providing they are at least partially effective) is certainly better than not having them, it also comes down to whether they are positioned where needed, and if they can be overwhelmed. If N Korean ICBM's can be limited to single digit numbers, with a single warhead, then BMD systems could be effective.

OTOH if it turns out N Korea has (or can steal/develop) MIRV capabilities, and/or it able to manufacture more ICBM's than the rest of the world expects... a perfectly functioning BMD system might only be able to limit or reduce the damage.
Well it's an interesting question. At 2 interceptors per missile, a system like the A135 should be able to handle ~10-15 ICBMs, with future systems having greater capabilities. Are we thinking the DPRK has dozens of ICBMs ready any time soon? Even China has a relatively small number of ICBMs.
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Old September 7th, 2017   #588
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Well it's an interesting question. At 2 interceptors per missile, a system like the A135 should be able to handle ~10-15 ICBMs, with future systems having greater capabilities. Are we thinking the DPRK has dozens of ICBMs ready any time soon? Even China has a relatively small number of ICBMs.
There is also the very real possibility that all eyes are on the skies for inbound missiles when some could be approaching on completely different vectors...
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Old September 7th, 2017   #589
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Another question is, in a scenario where NK does launch an ICBM, does Russia attempt to shoot it down along with the US?

Or would they sit back and watch?
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Old September 8th, 2017   #590
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The problem is also that no system is 100 % reliable or perfect. Getting a 5-10% failure rate to intercept missile in a conventional scenario is quite good. But NK firing 10 nuclear tipped SRBM/MRBM/ICBM each at Seoul, Tokyo and LA just one 150kt warhead coming through is a huge blow.

Thus a credible nuclear deterrence is a must have. And we should hope that SK and Japan feel safe under the US umbrella as especially Japan with it's tech level, warehouse full of fission material and space program could advance from no nukes to MIRVs with H-bombs tipped ICBMs in record time.

The Chinese would freak out and the world wouldn't get any safer.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #591
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I hope you understand that this is just a idea but one way you cold potentially defuse this peacefully is for South Korea and the United States to do a deal with China to station a small contingent of soldiers on the North/South border on the South side. I know this sounds crazy but with that if North Korea tried to attack it would have to do so with the knowledge that it is attacking China.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #592
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I hope you understand that this is just a idea but one way you cold potentially defuse this peacefully is for South Korea and the United States to do a deal with China to station a small contingent of soldiers on the North/South border on the South side. I know this sounds crazy but with that if North Korea tried to attack it would have to do so with the knowledge that it is attacking China.
So you think that they should be part of the UN Command Military Armistice Commission (UNCMAC) which monitors the border? Or do you want them as a strictly PLA force separate to the UNCMAC? I think that the former may be more acceptable politically to the South Koreans, US and other nations who make up the force.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #593
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How would that address the issue of NK having ICBMs with nukes? That's what triggered this latest frenzy.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #594
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... And we should hope that SK and Japan feel safe under the US umbrella as especially Japan with it's tech level, warehouse full of fission material and space program could advance from no nukes to MIRVs with H-bombs tipped ICBMs in record time.

The Chinese would freak out and the world wouldn't get any safer.
Ignoring the big liquid-fuelled rockets . . .
.
SS-520 sounding rocket: 140 kg to 1000 km altitude. How much range does that give? Enough to hit North Korea? That's a fairly small (2.6 ton) rocket. Mobile single warhead missile?

Epsilon satellite launcher: up to 1.2 tons in orbit. Three stage solid rocket. Just the first stage plus a warhead would do, I think.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #595
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How would that address the issue of NK having ICBMs with nukes? That's what triggered this latest frenzy.
Well NK having nukes and ICBMs is fact now so are moot. No point throwing a massive hissy fit or starting a war that will generate horrendous casualties. The tasks now would be to reach a peaceful diplomatic arrangement.
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Old September 8th, 2017   #596
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Well NK having nukes and ICBMs is fact now so are moot. No point throwing a massive hissy fit or starting a war that will generate horrendous casualties. The tasks now would be to reach a peaceful diplomatic arrangement.
Hissy fit is right. If only Trump can accept reality. James Clapper says the US should acknowledge the NK capability as a prelude to talks.
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Old September 11th, 2017   #597
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As expected.... Just a little bit more new sanctions... https://nos.nl/artikel/2192537-nieuw...ord-korea.html
And after the 7th and 8th nuclear tests...again a couple of new weak sanctions...

Maybe South-Korea will perform a military exercise with not four or five but even six F-15s dropping free fall bombs!!
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Old September 12th, 2017   #598
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As expected.... Just a little bit more new sanctions... https://nos.nl/artikel/2192537-nieuw...ord-korea.html
And after the 7th and 8th nuclear tests...again a couple of new weak sanctions...

Maybe South-Korea will perform a military exercise with not four or five but even six F-15s dropping free fall bombs!!
How will Kim Jong Un react to this? Methinks his ego will require him to make a bold statement in reply. He's wearing out the patience of the PRC and how they enforce the sanctions will be a gauge of their patience. The overlying factor is that sanctions are really the only option short of war, which would be catastrophic, not just for the Korean Peninsula, but China, Russia, Japan and other nations within the region. It will also drag, the US, Australia, New Zealand and any other currently active members of the UNC (UN Command in Korea) into the conflict whether they like it or not. Technically the UNC is still at war with North Korea and any currently active member of the UNC that refuses to honour its obligation will become an international pariah.
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Old September 14th, 2017   #599
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It has been reported the NK have launched another missile. It was launched at 2157 Zulu* 14Sep17 and overflew northern Hokkaido, Japan. NK also threatens to 'sink' Japan, reduce US to 'ashes and darkness'. On the threat methinks far too much booze, caffeine and sugar consumption by the NK hierarchy; fuels their ADHD

*GMT / UTC
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Old September 14th, 2017   #600
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NK has a Hydrogen bomb as far as the war planners are concerned. Check out the cool video showing the ground above the detonation site subsiding after the test.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9...-hydrogen-bomb
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