Flare-Ups in the Conflict Zone

[Feanor]

Guys two long threads on the Russia-Georgia conflict have already been closed. Please lets try to keep this one on topic and leave political commentary out. A series of incidents have happened in the conflict zone recently, EU monitors came under fire. There is continuing artillery fire from allegedly both sides. Recently a group of allegedly Georgian diversants came under fire when they were attempting to cross the border into S. Ossetia from Georgia.

An allegedly Russian UAV with a bomb fell and exploded in a Georgian village killing two Georgian sappers (I'm not sure how to accurately translate it) and wounding 7 police officers and a local teenager.

http://newsru.com/world/17nov2008/plavi.html

At the same time Georgia is cutting off natural gas supplies to S. Ossetia allegedly due to the damage to the pipelines. However gas supply problems from Georgia to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia were constant before the war, and were forms of Georgian pressure. Gazprom is promising a Russia-S. Ossetia pipeline no sooner then mid-2009. A similar pipeline to Abkhazia had begun construction iirc earlier this year, and it's unclear if it finished construction.

http://newsru.com/russia/17nov2008/gaz_uo.html

The situation is looking really unstable. Is another conflict possible in the short term?

EDIT: EU monitors were present during the attempt of a Georgian team to cross the Abkhazian border. The team attempted to cross twice, and the second time it was first to open fire at Abkhazian border guards.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20081117/155328994.html

 

[eckherl]

Guys two long threads on the Russia-Georgia conflict have already been closed. Please lets try to keep this one on topic and leave political commentary out. A series of incidents have happened in the conflict zone recently, EU monitors came under fire. There is continuing artillery fire from allegedly both sides. Recently a group of allegedly Georgian diversants came under fire when they were attempting to cross the border into S. Ossetia from Georgia.

An allegedly Russian UAV with a bomb fell and exploded in a Georgian village killing two Georgian sappers (I'm not sure how to accurately translate it) and wounding 7 police officers and a local teenager.

http://newsru.com/world/17nov2008/plavi.html

At the same time Georgia is cutting off natural gas supplies to S. Ossetia allegedly due to the damage to the pipelines. However gas supply problems from Georgia to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia were constant before the war, and were forms of Georgian pressure. Gazprom is promising a Russia-S. Ossetia pipeline no sooner then mid-2009. A similar pipeline to Abkhazia had begun construction iirc earlier this year, and it's unclear if it finished construction.

http://newsru.com/russia/17nov2008/gaz_uo.html

The situation is looking really unstable. Is another conflict possible in the short term?

EDIT: EU monitors were present during the attempt of a Georgian team to cross the Abkhazian border. The team attempted to cross twice, and the second time it was first to open fire at Abkhazian border guards.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20081117/155328994.html

If some of this information is true then the Georgian government better get control of its Army, Russia will not play this game if things continue to escalate, next time they go in they more than likely will not leave.

 

[nevidimka]

What I find hard to understand is, since when did Russia have UAV's? that too carrying bombs?

And I dont know what Georgia is trying to accomplish by provoking the lost provinces again. Perhaps they are trying to provoke a Russian attack and then turn around n say " see its the Russians this time that is attacking us", or they are plain dumb.

 

[Feanor]

Georgia is losing support fast. NATO is reopening cooperation with Russia soon, the EU-Russia agreement is set to resume. Most western media has started portraying Georgia as the aggressor. S. Ossetian and Abkhazian representatives were present at the talks in Geneva. It's starting to look unpleasant for the Georgians. I'm guessing they're trying to keep the issue alive in people's mind, to prevent the current status quo from simply becoming the norm.

Another incident, a gunfight broke out on the border between a car of Ossetian police and a Georgian police post. It's unclear whether either side actually crossed the border (it doesn't seem that way).

http://lenta.ru/news/2008/11/19/shooting/

 

[Firehorse]

Eurasia Insight:
IS THE BLOOM OFF THE ROSE IN GEORGIA?

And the recent shooting incident involving Polish president isn't going to help Misha either, no matter who perpetrated it!

Russia says US mercenaries, others fought for Georgia

Georgian row over origins of war

He still repeats old excuses-
Saakashvili ordered to start combat actions in South Ossetia

 

[Feanor]

In the Russian Republic of Northern Ossetia a series of violent incidents have occured since the end of the war. I remember some speculation from members here during the conflict about potential destabilization of the Russian Caucus territories. I dismissed it then as unlikely, but now it's starting to look like it might become a reality.

Sep. 9th there was an attack on a ranking police officer.
Oct. 1st there was an attack on a Northern Ossetia police colonel that left the colonel and his 20 year old son dead.
Oct. 21st there was a fatal attack on a relative of a major politician, with ties to political figures.
Oct. 22nd a bomb exploded under the BMW of the deputy mayor of Vladikavkaz. The deputy mayor was injured but not killed.
Oct. 30th A man attacked police officers with a pistol, injured one, but was killed by return fire.
Nov. 6th in the center of Vladikavkaz a female suicide bomber blew up a bus killing 12 and injuring 41 others.
Nov. 26th the mayor of Vladikavkaz is killed by a sniper.

http://www.newsru.com/russia/27nov2008/vladik_obstrel.html
http://www.newsru.com/russia/26nov2008/karaev.html

EDIT: This is compounded by major instability in Ingushetiya and Dagestan, where major counter-terrorist operations have been conducted recently. While Chechnya is looking fairly stable at the moment, with a large federal forces presence, other republics are starting to see more and more violent attacks.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20081127/155949514.html

 

[Todjaeger]

In the Russian Republic of Northern Ossetia a series of violent incidents have occured since the end of the war. I remember some speculation from members here during the conflict about potential destabilization of the Russian Caucus territories. I dismissed it then as unlikely, but now it's starting to look like it might become a reality.

Sep. 9th there was an attack on a ranking police officer.
Oct. 1st there was an attack on a Northern Ossetia police colonel that left the colonel and his 20 year old son dead.
Oct. 21st there was a fatal attack on a relative of a major politician, with ties to political figures.
Oct. 22nd a bomb exploded under the BMW of the deputy mayor of Vladikavkaz. The deputy mayor was injured but not killed.
Oct. 30th A man attacked police officers with a pistol, injured one, but was killed by return fire.
Nov. 6th in the center of Vladikavkaz a female suicide bomber blew up a bus killing 12 and injuring 41 others.
Nov. 26th the mayor of Vladikavkaz is killed by a sniper.

http://www.newsru.com/russia/27nov2008/vladik_obstrel.html
http://www.newsru.com/russia/26nov2008/karaev.html

EDIT: This is compounded by major instability in Ingushetiya and Dagestan, where major counter-terrorist operations have been conducted recently. While Chechnya is looking fairly stable at the moment, with a large federal forces presence, other republics are starting to see more and more violent attacks.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20081127/155949514.html

I just read a horribly translated version of the first link... What I could glean from it was that there were (or seemed to be) no real suspects, or even groups suspected responsible. The other seemed to be the idea was that the violence was not accidental or random, but part of a campaign towards something, presumably greater instability in the region. Is this a correct undestanding of the situation?

Assuming there were to be greater instability, who would benefit? Would Georgia benefit, as Russia would have to put greater resources into maintaining control of its current territories? Would ethnic Ossentians (North & South) gain, particularly greater autonomy, as Russia again looked to be getting distracted (or preoccupied) in the area? Or would criminal elements gain ground, as Russia had to deal with instability within its borders?

Given what seems to a coming global economic crisis (if it has not already arrived :shudder) is it also possible that the events are related to that. Either due to one of the above mentioned groups (or others unmentioned) trying to exploit a potentially vulnerable period, or just the populace taking action against the government?

-Cheers

 

[nevidimka]

I wonder, did these type of attacks happened during Soviet times? or did the Soviets had a more firm Iron grip of this troubled region?

 

[Feanor]

I just read a horribly translated version of the first link... What I could glean from it was that there were (or seemed to be) no real suspects, or even groups suspected responsible. The other seemed to be the idea was that the violence was not accidental or random, but part of a campaign towards something, presumably greater instability in the region. Is this a correct undestanding of the situation?

More or less.

Assuming there were to be greater instability, who would benefit? Would Georgia benefit, as Russia would have to put greater resources into maintaining control of its current territories? Would ethnic Ossentians (North & South) gain, particularly greater autonomy, as Russia again looked to be getting distracted (or preoccupied) in the area? Or would criminal elements gain ground, as Russia had to deal with instability within its borders?

It is unlikely that Georgia will benefit in the short term, as Russia still has overall dominance. Their ability to challenge that dominance has been destroyed by the recent conflict. Perhaps 5 or 10 years from now they can exploit the situation, but at the moment it seems unlikely. Then again I've been wrong before. Criminal elements would gain ground, not to mention that they already have a lot of it. Ethnic Ossetians would need a meaningful democratic government to represent them, for Ossetian autonomy to have any meaning. As long as governors are centrally appointed, they are a compromise between the Kremlin and local interest groups. The general population is left out.

Given what seems to a coming global economic crisis (if it has not already arrived :shudder) is it also possible that the events are related to that. Either due to one of the above mentioned groups (or others unmentioned) trying to exploit a potentially vulnerable period, or just the populace taking action against the government?

-Cheers

It's not likely to be a popular revolt. The nature of the violence, a series of isolated incidents, all very violent, but brief, rather then general protests and clashes between the police and locals.

EDIT: And yes during the Soviet period control over the region was much tighter. The idea of weapons being on the loose in enough numbers to arm an insurgency was unthinkable.

 

[Feanor]

Sorry for a double post but there are some unpleasant signals being sent across diplomatic channels. Condoleeza Rice recently swept aside concerns about the readyness of Ukraine and Georgia for the NATO candidacy, by saying that they could be admitted without that step, essentially bypassing it. Tomorrow in Brussels NATO will discuss the readyness of those countries to join. Ukraine has moved numbers of troops from the western borders towards Russia and has signed an agreement allowing NATO forces to move through it's territory. Meanwhile the USA has decided to add special risk insurance to all ships delivering cargo to Georgia in case of a second war. Finally artillery fire from the Georgian side into S. Ossetia is continuing.

These could be a series of unpleasant coincidences, or it could be a preparation for a rematch.

http://newsru.com/world/02dec2008/suda.html

Meanwhile a bomb went off in Ingushetiya, fortunately no one was injured.
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/12/01/karabulak/
A bomb also went off in a church in Moscow.
http://lenta.ru/articles/2008/12/01/blast/
Finally the president of Ingushetiya decided to retire after attacks on his family and relatives. A short timeline of events in Ingushetiya.

Oct. 18th a column of Russian Army troops is fired on, leaving 3 dead and 9 injured. In the same day a local cafe was fired on but nobody was hurt.
Oct. 19th in the evening a police post was fired on out of a sniper rifle, nobody was injured. However perpetrators of both incidents were not found.
Oct 20th in the middle of the night a house of a police officer was fired on with a grenade launcher.
Oct. 24th a local casino is attacked, 15 people are abducted from it, and a police officer is disarmed. A little later the wife of the vice-leader of the administration of the town was killed.
Oct 25th in the morning a high ranking police official is killed. Shortly before that another police officer was hospitalized after being fired on.
Oct 26th the car of a high ranking government official of the republic and a relative of the president is blown up. The official is injured along with several others.
Oct 27th a bomb is disarmed in the same town as the casino attack. Slightly later a car is blown up. Later that day an attempt on the life of another of the presidents relatives, the local road-police inspector, left him injured and hospitalized.

http://lenta.ru/articles/2008/10/28/unrest/

The Ingushetian president has been temporarily replace by colonel of the VDV Yunus-Bek Evkurov, a heroic figure from the 1999 Prishtina landing of the VDV which he commanded, and a hero of the Second Chechen War where he received the Hero of Russia order. He is most likely meant to restore order to a republic that is starting to resemble a war zone.
http://lenta.ru/articles/2008/10/31/quit/

I'll post more updates of events and more timelines of terrorist activities and general instability as well as any political developments hinting at a potential of additional flare ups. The entire region, from Georgia and Ossetia, to Russian N. Caucus is starting to look like a powderkeg.

EDIT: And the EU mission in Georgia decided to relocate closer directly to the border zones due to increasing tension and the unstable situation.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20081201/156233746.html

 

[Todjaeger]

Sorry for a double post but there are some unpleasant signals being sent across diplomatic channels. Condoleeza Rice recently swept aside concerns about the readyness of Ukraine and Georgia for the NATO candidacy, by saying that they could be admitted without that step, essentially bypassing it. Tomorrow in Brussels NATO will discuss the readyness of those countries to join. Ukraine has moved numbers of troops from the western borders towards Russia and has signed an agreement allowing NATO forces to move through it's territory. Meanwhile the USA has decided to add special risk insurance to all ships delivering cargo to Georgia in case of a second war. Finally artillery fire from the Georgian side into S. Ossetia is continuing.

These could be a series of unpleasant coincidences, or it could be a preparation for a rematch.

Hopefully it is a coincedence, and that the current US administration will not support (and thus commit) the US to further 'adventures' in the region, particularly as President-elect Obama is to take office January 20th.

As for some of the events occuring within Russia, I remember reading yesterday that an Islamic group claimed responsibility for at least one of the attacks. Unfortunately I now cannot locate the source of the article. IMO there seem to be too many attacks occurring within a relatively small area, against governmental leaders and personnel for it to be random. Who is actually responsible and why... That does seem to still be in question at present.

-Cheers

 

[Feanor]

I hope that Mr. Bush doesn't use his last little time in office to try to tie America into a position where it would have to either back down or support Georgia.

As for the area, it's generally highly unstable. I suspect that at this rate, the entire N. Caucus may become destabilized. I'm not sure if we can link the violence in Russian N. Caucus with the continuing incidents in and around the conflict zone with any validity but the overall conontations of this instability in terms of weapon traffic and fighters traveling between the regions, as well as generally highthened tensions are unpleasant.

EDIT: And a few more news updates. The EU will send a 300-member mission to the conflict zone.
http://www.arms-expo.ru/site.xp/050055049057124052050052056.html
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially accused Georgia of creating tensions along the border alleging that they were digging in observation posts manned not only by Georgian police but by the Georgian military. ( )
http://www.arms-expo.ru/site.xp/050055049057124053053053053.html
Finally Russian representatives met with the EU mission members in the conflict zone. Russia presented a potential memorandum of cooperation on controlling the border in the conflict zone.
http://www.arms-expo.ru/site.xp/050049054050124053053053056.html
Finally the EU has begun an independent investigation of the conflict in Georgia.
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/12/02/probe/

EDIT2: In Northern Ossetia a ranking police officer was attacked and heavily injured.
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/12/03/alagir/