Will latest F-35 problems push Norway towards a European solution?

[Falstaff]

Not spending too much time researching these days I was quite surprised about an article on defenseindustrydaily.com about the F-35 hitting serious design problems.

It is claiming :

He says that flying in 2012 with the JSF may be safe and the JSF can be used as a plane to fly around. But, the several software modules for weapons system integration will not be ready. Ground attack capability is the priority, so early-build F-35s will primarily be "bomb trucks" until the additional software modules can be tested and loaded. Air superiority capabilities will be restricted, and completed only after 2015. This means that full multi-role capability is possible by 2016 at the earliest, if and only if no major problems occur in development and testing of the weapon systems software.

So now I'm wondering if Norway might be pushed towards Gripen or Eurofighter a bit more as full air superiority/ interceptor capabilities are definitely required given the reappearance of the legendary bears...

 

[jaffo4011]

Not spending too much time researching these days I was quite surprised about an article on defenseindustrydaily.com about the F-35 hitting serious design problems.

It is claiming :

So now I'm wondering if Norway might be pushed towards Gripen or Eurofighter a bit more as full air superiority/ interceptor capabilities are definitely required given the reappearance of the legendary bears...

its certainly a possibility given the substantial links already made with both the eurofighter and gripen consortiums.
what is the main priority for Norway?..........if its air superiority then a decision could lean towards the eurofighter typhoon which is already fully capable in that regime.ground attack capability is also well advanced....

interesting thread.interesting to see how it all pans out....and not just in respect of norways interest

 

[Jezza]

its certainly time for all to seek backup aircraft types
(just in case of course)

maybe AUS should look at 100 super hornets and 10 growlers.
or new build single seat f 15f fighters.(60) and (50 supahornets)
and dont forget gripen, rafale or typhoon.
just a thought?nfloorl:

 

[metro]

With the daily news that I don't think can be spun as anything approaching "Here's more good F-35 News," IMHO, the writing is on the wall.

I'd get as many "extra-friendly" NATO countries and see if you can get the F-22 on the (relative) cheap. I'm guessing we're going to want more of those for ourselves, and the only way that's going to happen (within some kind of real budget) is if the cost per unit decreases... a lot. I'm in favor of making it available to our close allies. The F-35 just seems to have a shady future.
Perhaps, if we're able to sell (again... i.e. some countries that have bought into the F-35) the F22 to F35 members, the price could be right for Europe; and perhaps the Typhoon, Gripen, Rafale, all become even more competitive for export and in a perfect storm, EU countries will be able to buy "domestic" as replacement for the F35? Big IF! Especially knowing we like to hide our best fighter a keep control of our tech until it leaks (In my mind, it's like we're keeping the best players on the sideline... but I guess we really don't have much of a need for them now)?

Anyway, as always, JMHO. I know a lot of people are/have been waiting for the F-35 and believe in the program, I'm just skeptical.

cheers!

 

[slider]

The F-35 future is unclear for some European countries, these are tied in to cost, technology transfer, offsets and aircraft capability for the dollar paid.
A Dutch parliamentary report recently stated that the final cost of F-35 will not be known until the final aircraft comes off the production line and they were not happy with technology transfer issues, so what does the future holf for the F-35.
SAAB are making a great play to the Scandinavian countries with the next generation Grippen, and I personally think that is the way they will go.
F-35 seems a jack of all trades aircraft with what seems to be limited range and payload. It's plusses are stealth, AESA radar and whatever new technology is in place.
However some countries may want the accent to be on an aircraft which can do more and is better overall value, so for me it's Typhoon or Grippen for some countries, forget Rafale, no one seems to like it much.

 

[Falstaff]

For clarification: I didn't mean to start an F-35 bashing thread or a comparison, there are enough threads that deal with these things... However, first thing that comes to my mind when I think of the Norwegian Air Force is that the Russians have resumed their patrols over the North Atlantic. No big deal, really, business as usual really, but it could trigger a slight emphasis on the need to have a capable interceptor/ air superiority fighter. IMHO they need a multi-role fighter, but if it's true that the F-35 will be available for A2A missions by 2016, then this could be too late. And a true multi-role Typhoon will definitely be ready much earlier, a AESA variant perhaps as early as 2012.

its certainly a possibility given the substantial links already made with both the eurofighter and gripen consortiums.
what is the main priority for Norway?..........if its air superiority then a decision could lean towards the eurofighter typhoon which is already fully capable in that regime.ground attack capability is also well advanced....

SAAB are making a great play to the Scandinavian countries with the next generation Grippen, and I personally think that is the way they will go.

Exactly. Both are good options, I think. Remains to be seen what the Norwegians do now. Would be interesting to hear what the Norwegians themselves think about that matter.

Perhaps they even think about going the Aussi way and buy or lease an interim fighter to reduce risks and buy the F-35 when it's ready.

 

[martitrmartitr]

There will not be an interim fighter. Its between the JSF, Eurofighter and Gripen. I feel that the JSF and Eurofighter has an edge over the Gripen.

We require more of an A2A platform than an A2G platform.
That will favour the Eurofighter, wich is the way i hope we will go.
It was mention in a newspaper debate that if we choose the JSF, russian fighters and probably the backfires as well, can choose not to be intercepted by outclimbing and outrunning it. During peace an intercept is the normal alongside "smile and wave".

The Eurofighter representative also admitted that the JSF was the best aircraft if you wanted to bomb downtown Teheran, but we dont...

When it comes to the rising cost of the JSF, thats always been a problem.
We`ll get the final cost long after the contract is signed. LM also gave us an estimate that sounds just stupid (to low, maybe theres a new one i havent heard about), and we are afraid to run into another BAZAN guess the price cost overrun nightmare.

Just my five cents (please give me a Eurofighter for christmas)

 

[Bearcat]

Not spending too much time researching these days I was quite surprised about an article on defenseindustrydaily.com about the

It is claiming :

So now I'm wondering if Norway might be pushed towards Gripen or Eurofighter a bit more as full air superiority/ interceptor capabilities are definitely required given the reappearance of the legendary bears...

First off I'd like to say hello to everybody. I'm a newby here and this is my first post

I'm not sure if this has been in the norwegian media. They're not so eager to report on defence matters, so they might be slow to catch on...
However, I don't think this alone will move Norway in another direction. Norway is very close to the US when it comes to "major" investments.

In that respect, the only thing that will push Norway away from the F-35 are it's operational shortcommings, compared to the Typhoon or Gripen. Recent events have shown that a supersonic interceptor is still in demand. From what I have read, the F-35 will not be able to intercept the supersonic russian TU-160 Blackjack and TU-22 Backfire. This will be a serious shortcomming to the RNoAF.

I do not belive stealth is as important for Norway as it is for the US or UK. I can not see the norwegians flying bombing raids over the Kola peninsula. However, the norwegian strategic concept of the cold war is not out of date. It calls for air superiority in a crisis, so that NATO forces (air/navy/land) may be deployed.

I'm not an expert, but if an air superiority fighter can not catch up with it's targets, then we may have a problem

I belive this alone will move Norway towards a european solution.

 

[Ryttare]

Timing

I think the critical issue here is timing. The JSF project is already delayed and with the only available prototype grounded since the beginning of May it's been even more delayed. Cutting down on prototypes to save money makes the project sensitive to more delays.

The question is when Norway has to get a replacement before their existing F-16's will require costly investments to keep them in the air.

And I think if Norway decides to not wait for F-35 Gripen is the most likely choice.

 

[martitrmartitr]

And I think if Norway decides to not wait for F-35 Gripen is the most likely choice.

I belive we rather buy the Eurofighter than the Gripen. The Eurofighter is a more capable aircraft and has achieved considerable export order.
The only thing the Gripen has going for it is cheap, swedish surplus aircraft and possibly a collaboration with sweden (and Denmark) on repair/maintainance,

 

[Ryttare]

I belive we rather buy the Eurofighter than the Gripen. The Eurofighter is a more capable aircraft and has achieved considerable export order.
The only thing the Gripen has going for it is cheap, swedish surplus aircraft and possibly a collaboration with sweden (and Denmark) on repair/maintainance,

In the long run Norways vital interests are to protect their oil and fishing rights, and for that you want to perform maritime patrol with abilities of anti shipping and reconnaisance. Those are areas there Gripen has quite clear advantages against Typhoon. Also remember that the version Norway is offered are the Gripen N which will have quite a lot of general capability, especially considered value for money.

But I think what will be very important for Norways decision is industrial cooperation and I think Saab can offer more than the Eurofighter consortium there.

Eurofighter has at the present export orders for more planes than Gripen, but only from two countries. Gripen has been ordered by at leats three countries, probably four and is seen as the favourite in several tenders.

 

[Grand Danois]

According to the Norwegian Air Force site, Norway needs a F-16 replacement from 2020 onwards.

http://www.mil.no/luft/start/omlf/fremtiden/article.jhtml?articleID=90007

or 2015-2020

http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/fd/aktuelt/nyheter/2006/Nye-kampfly-til-Forsvaret.html?id=439975

(Norwegian)

I've uploaded some presentations (PDF) from the Norwegian fighter competition. Thought you'd find them of interest. Quite large files: 6-12 Mb.

Eurofighter_Capability.pdf
Gripen_Capability.pdf
JSF_Capability.pdf

The Norway specific content is in the end of the presentations.

 

[martitrmartitr]

In the long run Norways vital interests are to protect their oil and fishing rights, and for that you want to perform maritime patrol with abilities of anti shipping and reconnaisance. Those are areas there Gripen has quite clear advantages against Typhoon. Also remember that the version Norway is offered are the Gripen N which will have quite a lot of general capability, especially considered value for money.

But I think what will be very important for Norways decision is industrial cooperation and I think Saab can offer more than the Eurofighter consortium there.

Eurofighter has at the present export orders for more planes than Gripen, but only from two countries. Gripen has been ordered by at leats three countries, probably four and is seen as the favourite in several tenders.

Protecting fishing rights is done with our P-3, and hopefully a new MPA in the future. Fighters have short range and short time on station.
Protecting oil instalations is most likely against a terrorist threat, and not major surface combatants. Small boat would be the jobs for navy helicopters and FSK/MJK. In an all out war, air to air will have priority and anti ship will be second priority. I also think we can get the NSM integrated into the Eurofighter, like we do with JSF. The same thing with Gripen. Norway is not going to by RBS15 or any other swedish ASM.

So i actually dont think Gripen have any clear advantages, and are at a disadvantage in air to air.
And if we get refurbished, surplus swedish Gripens, how much industry involvement can you get?

 

[Maskirovka]

Protecting fishing rights is done with our P-3, and hopefully a new MPA in the future. Fighters have short range and short time on station.

I also think we can get the NSM integrated into the Eurofighter, like we do with JSF. The same thing with Gripen. Norway is not going to by RBS15 or any other swedish ASM.

So i actually dont think Gripen have any clear advantages, and are at a disadvantage in air to air.
And if we get refurbished, surplus swedish Gripens, how much industry involvement can you get?

You sometimes need fighters to intercept foreign ships (as well as foreign aircraft) because of their higher speed. And yes, fighters have shorter range and loitering time then a large sea surveillance prop-aircraft but I would´nt be concerned about the range in the Gripen NG. The numbers I´ve seen is that is at least as good as Eurofighter and in a interception mission over sea even better.

NSM will be integrated in the Gripen NG, as you have seen in pictures and read from SAAB. Norway perhaps does´nt have a need for RBS 15, but that´s off topic.

Why would Gripen NG have a disadvantage in A2A compared to the EF?

And why in the world would Norway buy "refurbished, surplus swedish Gripens" when they have not asked for it? South Africa, Chzeck Republic and Hungary all bought brand new Gripen C/Ds customized to their needs, Norway is a bit richer then those countries and could certainly afford new planes too...

 

[Aussie Digger]

Not spending too much time researching these days I was quite surprised about an article on defenseindustrydaily.com about the F-35 hitting serious design problems.

It is claiming :

So now I'm wondering if Norway might be pushed towards Gripen or Eurofighter a bit more as full air superiority/ interceptor capabilities are definitely required given the reappearance of the legendary bears...

The "limited" capability the JSF will provide as it's initial operating capability will be the ability to carry 2x AMRAAM and 2x air to ground munitions (up to 2000lbs class) internally or 4x AMRAAM or 2x AMRAAM and 2x WVR AAM of the users choice internally.

On top of this is the external weapons capacity, which is not going to present any RCS issues for intercepting Bears!

How can this be considered limited when no other fighter in the world can do this?

Further studies and development will improve the ability of the JSF to carry internal ordnance and speculation seems to show that the F-35A/C will be capable of carrying 4x AMRAAM and 2x WVR missiles without too much drama, however that capability is not a priority. Getting the aircraft to it's baseline requirement is...

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

As i understand it at IOC F35 will be cleared to drop over 20 weapons systems. Thats plenty at IOC, however this could be a problem as far as dates are concerned, thats alot of drop work to do on a few testbet airframes that are needed for plenty of other purposes. AFAIK AD is on the money, a ejector system is being worked on to allow 6 AAM's to be carried internally which will be in the works very shortly, however its a mile down the list of stuff to get done at the moment. But the space is there so the is no reason whatsoever why you will not see F35's with 6 AAM's internally carried in about the 2015~20 timeframe.

@ slider.....

F35A/C has a much higher range and payload than any of its contemporaries.

 

[slider]

Norway and F-35

Is the F-35 the aircraft that Norway needs in light of it's geographical position? Way back when the SU-27 came on the scene the Norwegians had plenty of interesting encounters with the Flanker as the Russians tried out their new hardware against the Viper. F-35's based at Bødo will attract an awful lot of interest from their Russian neighbours and they will attempt to test the F-35 capability as much as possible in a peacetime situation.
The ideal role for the F-35 seems to be first into the battlefield, drop it's bombs and leave, possibly escorted by other F-35's in the Air Dominance role.
I think it would be wasted in a Quick Reaction Alert role, escorting Russian aircraft round the North Cape etc. It is for sure that the UK will not be using it in that way, the Typhoon/Tornado F-3 will keep that task as they are far better suited to it.
Norway is unique in NATO in that it gets far closer to Russian air operations than most of it's allies, they deem it as just routine operations, keeping an eye on their neighbour, seeing what is going on. Do they really want to use a super stealth fighter for those kind of ops? I don't think so but money talks and economics will rule the decision of RNoAF.
My own choice would be Typhoon for the RNoAF, I don't think they need F-35considering their role within NATO which would be defending their airspace and land if invaded until NATO reinforcements arrive.
However, politics, and money will sway the decision and Norway might well end up as an all F-35 fleet, as will the Netherlands and probably Denmark unless the Swedes persuade them to go into a Scandinavian alliance with Advanced Grippen.
Norway is a small country with limited ambitions in being a player on the world stage, their concerns are much closer to home so they will want the aircraft that provides best value for money and is best suited to their national and NATO task.
F-35 at the moment is envisaged as a first strike jet, but it's role and capability will expand and multiply over the next 20 years. All modern military fighters have to be multi role, purely to save money so perhaps Norway will go the F-35 route, but there again maybe not. As the Norwegians say: 'Time will tell and the eyes will see'! Best wishes to all for Christmas and New Year and Typhoon forever!

 

[jaffo4011]

i think the point that falstaff is making,is not one of criticism of the f35 itself,but of the delays in the programme which potentially leave a capability gap,in the air to air role for the Norwegians.

and the point im making is that if the over riding priority if air defence then the gripen and certainly typhoon may offer a better solution, in a shorter time frame.

the uk will be utilising the f35 primarily in a attack orientated role (although the royal navy have a slightly different requirement) and that would appear to be its major strength which may not be norways primary objective.:unknown

 

[slider]

As i understand it at IOC F35 will be cleared to drop over 20 weapons systems. Thats plenty at IOC, however this could be a problem as far as dates are concerned, thats alot of drop work to do on a few testbet airframes that are needed for plenty of other purposes. AFAIK AD is on the money, a ejector system is being worked on to allow 6 AAM's to be carried internally which will be in the works very shortly, however its a mile down the list of stuff to get done at the moment. But the space is there so the is no reason whatsoever why you will not see F35's with 6 AAM's internally carried in about the 2015~20 timeframe.

@ slider.....

F35A/C has a much higher range and payload than any of its contemporaries.

If you are talking Typhoon v F-35, I'll give you range, but not payload.

 

[Falstaff]

The "limited" capability the JSF will provide as it's initial operating capability will be the ability to carry 2x AMRAAM and 2x air to ground munitions (up to 2000lbs class) internally or 4x AMRAAM or 2x AMRAAM and 2x WVR AAM of the users choice internally.

If I understand the article correctly and presume it's right then the problem will be it can't use the AMRAAMs as it doesn't have the software capabilities for full A2A before 2015... And if the Americans are by any chance human somehow there will be more delays.

think the point that falstaff is making,is not one of criticism of the f35 itself,but of the delays in the programme which potentially leave a capability gap,in the air to air role for the Norwegians.

Exactly. Apart from the known and well discussed capability issues time could now be a strong argument for the Typhoon and Gripen.