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Poland considering new F16 or F35

This is a discussion on Poland considering new F16 or F35 within the Air Force & Aviation forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; original cut and paste deleted - CREF Mod ngatimozart's advice http://www.defensenews.com/articles/...rs-acquisition...


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Old March 24th, 2017   #1
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Poland considering new F16 or F35

original cut and paste deleted - CREF Mod ngatimozart's advice

http://www.defensenews.com/articles/...rs-acquisition

Last edited by gf0012-aust; March 25th, 2017 at 01:02 AM.
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Old March 24th, 2017   #2
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Being able to network with F-35s from Norway, the UK, Denmark, Italy, the US and likely other allies with your own F-35s may be reason enough to give serious consideration to the F-35 over the F-16. There are of course other significant advantages. Cost will be a disadvantage but x dollars spent on F-35s versus F-16s will mean a smaller fleet but the capabilities of this smaller fleet will be better. The shelf life will be much longer with the F-35 as well. Politics will likely be the more important consideration as is the case here. I suspect much more critical evaluation will be undertaken in Poland given their environment.
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Old March 25th, 2017   #3
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Originally Posted by A4kscooter View Post
Although one of NATOs poorer members its GDP spent on defence (probably because of a fear of the Russians because of their history) is greater than 2% unlike many of the wealthier members.
Please cite the source of the article and don't cut and paste the article in full. Also some comment is required as well. That protects both you and the forum from allegations of plagiarism.
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Old March 25th, 2017   #4
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Although one of NATOs poorer members its GDP spent on defence (probably because of a fear of the Russians because of their history) is greater than 2% unlike many of the wealthier members.
Poorer NATO member?

Actually Poland is not a 'poor' nation (despite only being 'released' from the shackles of Communism less than 30 years ago).

Couple of stats:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._GDP_(nominal)

Poland ranks 11th in largest GDP, out of 42 Euro nations.

As far as NATO defence spending (both GDP and actual $ spend), Poland also ranks rather highly:

http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl20...pr2016-116.pdf

F-16s or F-35's for Poland?

Either way, Poland is continuing to modernise it's defence forces at a fairly reasonable rate, in my opinion anyway.
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Old March 25th, 2017   #5
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Thanks scooter. The original Polish plan was to acquire 50 - 100 used F-16 A/B aircraft and upgrade them to I think Block 52 standard. However after a study and the costs of the Romanian upgrade of ex Portuguese F--16 A/B aircraft, the Poles said that the cost was excessive for small gains and it would be cheaper acquiring new F-16 aircraft.

Poland shoots down used F-16A/B acquisition
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Old March 25th, 2017   #6
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Poorer NATO member?

Actually Poland is not a 'poor' nation (despite only being 'released' from the shackles of Communism less than 30 years ago).

Couple of stats:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._GDP_(nominal)

Poland ranks 11th in largest GDP, out of 42 Euro nations.....
He didn't say 'poor'. He said 'one of NATO's poorer members'. That's accurate. Out of 28 NATO members, two are pretty much equal to Poland in GDP per head (the usual way of measuring relative wealth & poverty of nations) & six are poorer. That makes Poland 20th out of 28, at best.
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Old March 25th, 2017   #7
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No brainer ... if you can afford the F-35 then take the F-35.

Actually I am surprised the F-16 is even being considered.

If money is an issue I would probably consider the Gripen before the F-16.
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Old March 25th, 2017   #8
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He didn't say 'poor'. He said 'one of NATO's poorer members'. That's accurate. Out of 28 NATO members, two are pretty much equal to Poland in GDP per head (the usual way of measuring relative wealth & poverty of nations) & six are poorer. That makes Poland 20th out of 28, at best.
That's partly true if we're talking about how "poor" the country is. But if we're looking at whether they can afford an F-35 buy or not, we should look at total defense spending, and the associated trends. Not the per-capita. Poland might have a smaller per-capita then Luxemburg but this hardly reflects which of the two is better able to operate a fleet of 5th gen fighter jets.
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Old March 26th, 2017   #9
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It depends on a number of factors, GDP per a capita and total GDP are part of it, It's also military budget, size of the armed forces (Could be a reasonable sized budget [2%+] but if it's spread out over a large military then less fancy equipment can be purchased) and the minimum required number of assets.

With a $9.6b budget between 140,000 men and women and only $14.5 billion being allocated extra to fund the modernization of the Polish armed forces there is very little room for a large F-35 purchase.

Do I reckon Poland will get the F-35? A good chance of it. Do I reckon it will happen in this planned order? Unlikely without a cash injection or deferment of other just as needed items.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #10
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It depends on a number of factors, GDP per a capita and total GDP are part of it, It's also military budget, size of the armed forces (Could be a reasonable sized budget [2%+] but if it's spread out over a large military then less fancy equipment can be purchased) and the minimum required number of assets.

With a $9.6b budget between 140,000 men and women and only $14.5 billion being allocated extra to fund the modernization of the Polish armed forces there is very little room for a large F-35 purchase.

Do I reckon Poland will get the F-35? A good chance of it. Do I reckon it will happen in this planned order? Unlikely without a cash injection or deferment of other just as needed items.
The plan is to have the F-35A price down to US$80 - 85 million flyaway cost by 2020. The current flyaway cost for a new F-16V is around US$70 million, maybe $75 million. So there is not really that great a difference in cost between the two, but capability wise the gap is huge. If they have a budget of US$x billion for new combat aircraft acquisition then if the F-35 is selected, they will obviously acquire y number less aircraft than if the F-16V was selected. However the number of F-35 aircraft capability wise, will outweigh the number of F-16V aircraft that the equivalent budget could procure.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #11
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The plan is to have the F-35A price down to US$80 - 85 million flyaway cost by 2020. The current flyaway cost for a new F-16V is around US$70 million, maybe $75 million. So there is not really that great a difference in cost between the two, but capability wise the gap is huge. If they have a budget of US$x billion for new combat aircraft acquisition then if the F-35 is selected, they will obviously acquire y number less aircraft than if the F-16V was selected. However the number of F-35 aircraft capability wise, will outweigh the number of F-16V aircraft that the equivalent budget could procure.
Fair point on that but that assumes they are looking at the F-16V variant, There are a few options available to them that are cheaper variants.

If the impending UAE order for extra F-16E/F's block 60 is anything to go by with spares and all the other required componants they could get there F-16's for a total price of $70m a unit with all the required spares and support.

Dont get me wrong, the F-35 is a major leap over the F-16 but where they already have experience with the F-16 and personnel and procedures in place to deal with such an aircraft they dont have that with the F-35 and that will play into it because that is exrta expenditure on an already tight budget.

My best guess is that the mig 29's and Su-22's will be replaced with F-16's within next few years while the older C/D model F-16's will be replaced with F-35's mid 2020's. The Polish def min has stated that he thinks now would be the wrong time to purchase them, had they joined the program 5 years ago and Polish companies got a slice of the pie they would have but now he believes that it's best to wait until FRP with higher availability and lower unit costs.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #12
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Fair point on that but that assumes they are looking at the F-16V variant, There are a few options available to them that are cheaper variants.

If the impending UAE order for extra F-16E/F's block 60 is anything to go by with spares and all the other required componants they could get there F-16's for a total price of $70m a unit with all the required spares and support.

Dont get me wrong, the F-35 is a major leap over the F-16 but where they already have experience with the F-16 and personnel and procedures in place to deal with such an aircraft they dont have that with the F-35 and that will play into it because that is exrta expenditure on an already tight budget.

My best guess is that the mig 29's and Su-22's will be replaced with F-16's within next few years while the older C/D model F-16's will be replaced with F-35's mid 2020's. The Polish def min has stated that he thinks now would be the wrong time to purchase them, had they joined the program 5 years ago and Polish companies got a slice of the pie they would have but now he believes that it's best to wait until FRP with higher availability and lower unit costs.
The V variant is the latest new build and that's what the USAF is upgrading their Block 52 C / D too when they get their collective ass into gear. Basically the V is a Block 60 / Block 70 aircraft. The Block 70 was originally pitched to the Indians for the original MMRCA competition, and is a Block 60 with a couple of refinements.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #13
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First you build a nice and modern F-16V fleet with new purchases and upgrades of your existing Falcons. Then a decade later, as you get rid of anything russian-made, you acquire some F-35 (which by then will be over any teething problems, upgraded and cheaper) and use them as a force multiplier.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #14
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First you build a nice and modern F-16V fleet with new purchases and upgrades of your existing Falcons. Then a decade later, as you get rid of anything russian-made, you acquire some F-35 (which by then will be over any teething problems, upgraded and cheaper) and use them as a force multiplier.
No you dont.

The current crop of F-16's where delivered from 2006 making them far younger then the Su 22's and Mig 29's thus much more useful life in them. You do not replace your youngest asset that is proven and retain your oldest asset whose age is leading to cost increases while also tying you in with a nation that you wouldn't trust as far as you can throw.

That being said I do have to make some corrections on my own part, I may have been off on my own costings for the F-16 with other new's articles quoting the UAE deal for 30 extra aircraft at $4-$5 billion compared to the $2 billion I had seen in another article. Apparently there are meant to be extra weapons/systems included in this but I cant speak to the value of it compared to the direct aircraft/spare's component of the deal.

What may give the F-35 an advantage outside of any cost/capability argument is Polish past experience with the F-16 where they ended up with the nickname nielot - A flightless bird.
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Old March 27th, 2017   #15
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Well since their F-16s are new, then don't spend money upgrading those. No need to object to my whole idea

Where did that nickname come from?
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