Some of the effects of this war in Russia include now the laying off of workers , this article also includes the claims the G.D.P is now back to 2014 levels
Russia - General Discussion.
- Thread starter Feanor
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It says the nominal (not real) GDP expressed in US dollars is back to about 2013 levels, but that's the exchange rate slumping.
GDP per capita in 2022, the first year of the war, was only about 5% higher than in 2013 (& about 2.5-3% lower than in 2021), but total GDP was roughly 7% higher (population had grown slightly), & GDP increased in 2023 & 2024, what with weapons production & the government flooding the economy with money to make people feel good.
Reckoned to be pretty stagnant this year, but real GDP is still higher than in 2013. Fallen further behind the USA, though, & a lot further behind China.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
IMF Cuts Russia’s 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.6%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 to 0.6%, down from 0.9%, and below the official government forecast of 1%. Russia’s economy, heavily sanctioned by the West, is expected to slow sharply from 4.3% growth in 2024...
tradingeconomics.com
The economy definitely larger then 2014, but the growth practically stagnated this year. The high interest rate actually already happening after Covid and War. This put pressure on consumers and private consumption, while the government spending for War activities that drive most of 4%+ growth in 23 and 24.
This indicate that the the war relate production and MIC capacities build up already reach the target, or Russia administration feel the war coming to end and Russia will consolidate their gain soon. Both can slown down war and defense industry growth.
This actually already shown in Russia Rosoboron increase activities on opening new export market. Shown Russia MIC now begin to have excess capacities to reenter export market again.
The inflation pressure still there but the interest rate already down to 17% from high 21% Russia Interest Rate. The Central Bank need to work back interest rate to bellow 12%, as that the rate Russian businesses believe sufficient enough to jack up consumers and private business consumption.
I'll spell it out again I'm saying shooting down a plane is indeed poking the bear,by that i mean a massive overreaction that is more likely to cause a much bigger problem then what is either intended, wanted or relative to the issue that preceded it.
I'm not saying don't defend your own airspace I never said that I said Infact there is many ways to do so the most common being radioing them and sending fighters to escort them out. Beyond that there is several layers of options like locking on then if needed a shot across the bow that would be rational escalations designed to calm tensions incase a shoot down is necessary
I also tried to explain the various reasons this is indeed the normal and in almost all cases correct approach. Even more so in the case of a very small countries shooting down the plane of a vastly larger and more powerful country that it has a border with.. you know common sense for non suicidal states. As to the bear is not in hibernation point that is true it's more cornered and possibly wounded still not a good time to be poking it unless your intentions are for a potentially even probably violent response.
I get your position is anything bad for Russia is good, but if Estonia had shot down Russian jets there is a good chance alot of Estonians would be dead right now. I was definitely saying that it's not in Estonias national interest to start a shooting war with Russia and again I remind you there a part of n.a.t.o and n.a.t.o is a DEFENSIVE allince.
Articsl 5 is not activated if you shoot first. At least not unless the allince is looking to go-to war and in this case they could just send troops to Ukraine same as the n.k do to Russia. Something that if your Estonia and care about the welfare of your country should be a very loud voice in your head screaming for cautious response in what is honestly a bit of a nothing burger.
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I'm sure the Estonians have talked to other NATO countries about appropriate responses to Russian intrusions, & won't do anything silly. And note that the aircraft patrolling the skies of Estonia (& Latvia & Lithuania) are temporarily assigned from other NATO countries. Defending their airspace is a NATO matter, not a national one. They have some ground based air defence, but so far nothing longer-range than IRIS-T SLM.
Shooting down threatening intruders is a defensive action, BTW. Sending threatening intruders into another country's airspace is an offensive action.
Article 5 certainly can be invoked if you fire first, in the right circumstances. If, for example, Russia sent tanks into Estonia, with strict instructions not to shoot unless shot at, & Estonia invoked Article 5, other NATO governments would respond with help.
Shooting down threatening intruders is a defensive action, BTW. Sending threatening intruders into another country's airspace is an offensive action.
Article 5 certainly can be invoked if you fire first, in the right circumstances. If, for example, Russia sent tanks into Estonia, with strict instructions not to shoot unless shot at, & Estonia invoked Article 5, other NATO governments would respond with help.
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I'm sure Estonia won't be nearly as adventurous as Turkey in their engagement with Russia. Iirc the shoot down in Turkey was followed by a meeting of NATO members' defense ministers. The outcome was that other NATO nations stated they wouldn't step in to protect Turkey if they got into a shooting war with Russia over that situation. Estonia isn't Turkey and there are reasons why it played it out the way it did. But it's a tricky subject. Shooting down an aircraft from another country for an airspace violation tends to be on the extreme side of responses. It's not how these situations are normally handled.
Well yeah of course it's a defensive action. It's also a extrema escalation. that's the point I'm sure they have had those discussions I'm also sure they haven't got the green light to start shooting down Russian jets and asking questions later. I'm also betting even with a greenlight there unlikely to do just that. Not unless they are very very sure n.a.t.o will be there be there in time and force to stop Russia. But again the point if that's what n.a.t.o wanted they could do just that right now and send troops to Ukraine....
The point wasn't is it a defensive action or Estonians right to make the choice it was that it's a stupid choice with no real upside for anyone but people who want to see a Russian jet go down without any thought for the fact the entire country of Estonia perhaps the entire e.u would pay the price for said decision.
As for a offensive action yes it was, as as I said in another post earlier also a msg something done regularly. Offensive as in the opposite of defensive doesnt mean anything in this context as it's the equivalent of a big guy giving a small guy the eyeball for whatever. Your suggesting that he respond with a haymaker and hope his friends show up. Even tho they have been basically avoiding a fight with.
I wouldn't call this a offensive military action by Russia against n.a.t.o even tho that is technically true but you can if you want. But then again I wouldn't call sending aid to Ukraine that needs specifically trained personal and militarily grade intelligence aswell as clearance to operate a act of war tho technically it is.... There are grey areas I don't say that to be coy or deceptive but because the reality is grey areas exit specifically because LIVES are on the line here and war is not a joke for those involved in it. And suggesting things like Estonia should shoot down Russian jets over basically nothing because they have the right to technically is foolish and honestly inhumane. Same would be true if issue Russia should sink American ships carrying aid to Ukraine because there legitimate military targets, they are but the cost for the Russia and the world is high enough that common sense prevailes. I'm also saying America knows this and loads those ships just as Russia is sure that Estonia isn't going to shot down the jets and that is a huge factor into why they were there in the first place and even more reason as to why shooting them down is bad awfull stupid foolish idea. As it will be taken for what it is a declaration of war from Estonia to Russia perhaps more if and that's if n.a.t.o decides to respond
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If you're referring to the Korean Air flight 007, you'll note that it flew over Kamchatka, entering Soviet airspace, and even restricted military air space, and then left again, and only upon re-entering Soviet airspace over Sakhalin was it shot down. Soviet jets repeatedly tried to get visual contact to confirm whether it's a civilian aircraft or not, and warning shots were fired, though likely not seen by the airliner. To the best of my knowledge Soviet command at the time thought they were engaging some sort of western reconnaissance plane. But it's a good example of how even at the height of the Cold War, the notoriously paranoid Soviet Union took many steps before opting to bring down the aircraft. With modern communications and much more sophisticated sensors, it's far easier to take steps below the threshold of a shoot down. And the difference between this and the Turkey incident are interesting as well. In that case the alleged violation was iirc 17 seconds long? I wouldn't regard Turkish behavior there as an example to follow.
For Russia, I'm assuming you're referring to the downing of MH17? Iirc that was brought down by DNR rebel forces who were operating a BUK TELAR without the battery radar. It was almost certainly a mistake, as their own public statements initially claimed they downed an Su-25, then a Ukrainian military transport plane, and then (once luggage started turning up) that they didn't down anything at all and it was all Ukraine. Certainly it's possible Estonia, or someone else, accidentally downs a Russian jet violating their airspace, but it seems unlikely.
You don't seem to understand what I'm saying.
I'm saying that Estonia would only shoot first in circumstances where the Russians had already effectively begun a war, & that someone can start a war without shooting. BTW, it isn't possible for Estonia to send aircraft to shoot down Russian aircraft: any fighters going up to look at them aren't Estonian, & they're under NATO command. Air to air war would be Russia against NATO from the start. Read what you reply to.
And I'm pretty sure the USA isn't sending shiploads of military aid to Ukraine. It's going overland via Poland.
You seem to getting very worked up over very little.