In its annual analysis “The Market for Light Tracked Vehicles,” the Forecast International Weapons Group reports that it expects the light tracked vehicles market to produce nearly 10,200 units, worth more than $20.9 billion, through 2020. This international market remains a highly competitive and dynamic environment.
Dean Lockwood, Weapons Systems Analyst at Forecast International, notes that new production of the top high-end vehicle – the Igel/Puma – will account for only 10.09 percent of unit production through the forecast period. Yet, Lockwood states, “We estimate this program will own 57.57 percent of the total value of the light tracked vehicle market through 2020.” Lockwood adds, “For most nations, the expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end light tracked vehicles pales in comparison with the prospect of new procurement.”
The U.S. Army plans to spend over $2.77 billion on Bradley Fighting Vehicle upgrades through FY16. Indeed, the U.S. Army intends to maintain the Bradley Fighting Vehicle system in active service for another 45 years. The ongoing U.S. Army investment in the maintenance and upgrade of the existing Bradley fleet through FY16 is now equivalent to 13.5 percent of the value of all new-production light tracked vehicles scheduled to roll out worldwide through 2020. “While transparent to this market analysis, maintenance of the existing Bradley Fighting Vehicle fleet in U.S. Army service is effectively the second most valuable light tracked vehicle program on the international market,” Lockwood said.
In terms of sheer numbers, the Type 90 armored personnel carrier (APC) and the Type 90 mechanized infantry combat vehicle (MICV) of the People’s Republic of China represent the most significant light tracked vehicle production runs of the forecast period. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) standardizes its mechanized forces around the Type 90 APC and MICV, Forecast International expects that combined production of these two vehicles will account for some 42 percent of all new light tracked vehicle production worldwide, worth 9.2 percent of the market, through 2020.
Although the light tracked vehicles in service today are all products of the Cold War, they are far from relics destined for the scrap heap. Since the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) executed its “Thunder Run” to Baghdad in 2003, the light tracked vehicle has soldiered on as a significant force multiplier on the modern asymmetric battlefield.
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.
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