There has also been a lot of discussion on our sister forum as to whether the first indigenous Chinese carrier will be STOBAR or CATOBAR, some thinking the PLAN will move ahead and employ emals, others opting for the cautious approach stating that it will likely be a STOBAR ship. It has also been noted that the Shenyang F-60/J31 techno demonstrator? or whatever, may be a next gen stealthy carrier fighter. For now the J-15, which is a naval Flanker derivative is the definitive bird on the Liaoling or CV-16.
Personally, I think they will use the experience they get from Liaoling and develop a roughly equivalent tonnage carrier in STOBAR but with most if not all aspects incrementally better and more suited to Chinas needs. The Chinese aren't stupid + sure as hell aren't going to jump from one STOBAR trainer to a full on CATOBAR in one leap as it'd be very risky + expensive as hell.
IIRC J-15 is STOBAR and Wiki (from an AviationWeek article I can't view due to no subscription) puts the ISD at 2016. So if China are already building a second carrier - according to Reuters - (or at least beginning fairly soon) then the J-15 would be the prime naval aircraft to carry for a while now.
My guess it'll probably be what, 15 - 20 years for the J-31 to go from a non-flying potential prototype to something commercially viable? (Generally pretty shite at these estimates) so if they were looking to use the J-31 on a future carrier it'd be possibly a 3rd/4th depending on how many they build. Either way, it won't be for their next carrier IMO, who knows - might even be STOBAR to try keep 1 common class of carrier.
Of course, this all depends on if China is lying about not building a second carrier in Shanghai, something which - due to the lack of photos - could be true.