U.S. Missile-Defence Shield Test Fails;Interceptor Fails to Launch.

Red aRRow

Forum Bouncer
Boeing Missile-Defense Interceptor Fails to Launch

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- A Boeing Co. interceptor missile failed to launch during a test of the U.S. ground-based missile-defense system today because of an ``unknown anomaly,'' the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said.

The interceptor, designed to stop missiles headed to the U.S., was scheduled to launch from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean 16 minutes after a target missile carrying a mock warhead was launched from Kodiak, Alaska, at 12:45 a.m. New York time, the agency said in a statement.

Boeing Chief Executive Harry Stonecipher is depending on development of the U.S. ground-based missile-defense system to boost sales. President George W. Bush wants initial operations of the system to be ready by next year. The system must pass two flight tests within three months before it is deemed reliable, Thomas Christie, the Pentagon's director of operational testing, said on Nov. 2.

``I would call that a pretty gross test failure,'' said Loren Thompson, a defense industry consultant and chief operating officer at Arlington, Virginia-based Lexington Institute. ``It has a long way to go before we can count on the protection that it's supposed to provide.''

Shares of Boeing, the second-biggest U.S. defense contractor, fell 24 cents to $52.40 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They have risen 34 percent over the past year.

Legislators still will have patience with the program because of the amount of money the U.S. government has invested in it, Thompson said. Congress approved a $10 billion budget for missile defense in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

Defense Shield

Last year, about 10 percent of Chicago-based Boeing's $27.4 billion in military sales came from the missile-defense shield program. Boeing spokeswoman Kerry Gildea didn't return a call for comment today.

On Monday, Boeing won a $928 million contract to continue work on its part of the defense shield, intended to destroy a long-range missile, such as a nuclear warhead, at high altitude from locations such as North Korea.

Other parts of the shield include systems that attempt to shoot down a missile soon after launch and while it is falling to Earth. Lockheed Martin Corp., the biggest U.S. defense company, and Northrop Grumman Corp. also have missile-defense contracts.

The test is the first in two years in which the Missile Defense Agency attempted to launch the interceptor missile against a target missile. The previous December 2002 test also failed because the warhead didn't separate from its booster rocket. Four previous tests were successful.

Six interceptor missiles have been installed in Fort Greely, Alaska, this year and on Monday the agency installed the first one at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Today's test was intended to evaluate the interceptor missile's flight path and communications system, not necessarily to intercept the missile, the agency has said. The booster rocket of the interceptor is made by Orbital Sciences Corp. and Raytheon Co. makes the warhead.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Darrell Hassler in Chicago at [email protected].

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aCMmqxw2Dnd4&refer=top_world_news

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10 billion dollar budge :O like WTF!

Its quite a blow to Bush since he promised a "working sample" by the end of this year.

By the way how many Missile centers would be required to cover the whole of the United States??
 

highsea

New Member
Red aRRow said:
By the way how many Missile centers would be required to cover the whole of the United States??
This particular part is the ground based interceptor. It is designed to hit an incoming missile in the mid-course phase (outside the earth's atmosphere).

Only two bases are required to cover the US, one at Ft. Greely, Alaska, and one at Vandenberg AFB in California. I think the total number of missiles is supposed to be something like 90.

There have been successful tests, but the last one was a failure, as the article mentioned. This test was scheduled for earlier in the year, but a software glitch caused it to be postponed. It sounds like they haven't got it sorted out yet.

BTW, the $10 bn. is for the whole program's budget, not just the GBI part. It includes the airborne laser, ship based assets, radar and early warning, space based assets, and TBM defence development. It's obviously a very ambitious program.
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
He hasn't mentioned the name of the system.
It is GBI or THAAD or MEADS.
If its GBI,then it will be truly an excellent system.
While normal ABM systems are designed to intercept in earths atmosphere while GBI itself is a small Ballistic Missile to intercept warheads outside the atmosphere that is in the Midcourse phase.

I think the total number of missiles is supposed to be something like 90.
90 might be a costly ins't it?

The most interesting part of GBI is EKV(Exoatmosphere kill vehicle) which can discrminate decoys and the actual warhead.
It was a big problem for Grund based RADAR's to differentiate the warhead and decoys during the mid-course phase.
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/gbi.htm
The EKV has a sensitive, long-range electro-optical infrared seeker which allows the EKV to acquire and track targets, and to discriminate between the intended target reentry vehicle and other objects, such as tank fragments or decoys. This enables the GBI to be launched against a cluster of objects and subsequently identify and intercept the targeted reentry vehicle. The EKV would also receive one or more in-flight target updates from other ground and space-based sensors, enhance the probability of intercepting the target. Based on this received data and its own sensors, the kill vehicle uses small on-board rockets to maneuvers so as to collide with the target, with both demolished in the high-speed collision
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doggychow14

New Member
I was wondering. Does the missile defence system protect the US from all types of ballistic missiles be it from north korea, or Russia? Or does it only stop ballistic missiles from third world countries?
 

highsea

New Member
It's not designed to defend the US from Russia. Russia still has thousands of warheads, which could overwhelm any missile defence system.

It's intended to protect against rogue states like North Korea.
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
I was wondering. Does the missile defence system protect the US from all types of ballistic missiles be it from north korea, or Russia? Or does it only stop ballistic missiles from third world countries?
I am sure it will be sucessful against any SRBM ,MRBM or IRBM when deployed completely like from Iran,N.korea etc.

But I doubt against Chinese ICBM's (A probability of 0.7 in my opinion)

Highly unlikely against Russian ICBM's like SS-X-27(A probability of 0.3 i think)
 

highsea

New Member
Ajay, I'm curious. What do you base your estimates on?

It's not really the type of missile that counts, it's how many there are. When the system is fully up, it could theoretically take out any current ICBM in mid-course.

A Topol-M is tougher to target in boost phase, because it's road mobile, and you don't know where the launch will come from. So you can't pre-target the silo. Once it's in terminal phase, if it has MIRVS (right now it doesn't, but future versions may), it's tougher because there are more targets, and presumably decoys to discriminate also. But in mid-course, it presents one target that is predictable, so it's possible to take out.

The reason I say it's not designed to defend against Russia is because of the number of warheads that Russia has. Way, way, more than China. So Russia could overwhelm the system with sheer numbers. Of course the US would retaliate in kind.

NMD is not designed to save the world. If Russia launches a nuclear attack against the US, it's all over, missile defence or no missile defence.
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
Ajay, I'm curious. What do you base your estimates on?
Its just my opinion yaar,my assumption.
I have given probability of 0.7 for Chinese Missiles becoz even though they are not effective as Russian ICBM,they are ICBM never to be under estimated.

My probability of 0.3 for Russian ICBM becoz if Russia Launches Massive Missile attacks then I think US will be able to intercept atleast some of them.
Systems like GBI,SBL,ABL,SM-3,THAAD will manage to intercept some Russian Ballistic Missiles (exclude SS-X-27M topol)

NMD is not designed to save the world. If Russia launches a nuclear attack against the US, it's all over, missile defence or no missile defence.
I agree with u ,Nothing can stop Russian ICBM's.
But the real problem would be with china.
The Million dollar question would be "Is the NMD effective against Chinese ICBM's"

It would be sucessful against Any SRBM,MRBM and IRBM.
 

highsea

New Member
ajay_ijn said:
The Million dollar question would be "Is the NMD effective against Chinese ICBM's"

It would be sucessful against Any SRBM,MRBM and IRBM.
SRBM, MRBM, and IRBM are not a threat to CONUS. There is nowhere within range to launch from. (with the theoretical exception of Cuba, which we would know about)

NMD is designed to defend against ICBM's. Theater defence systems like PAC-3 or Arrow are part of terminal phase defence, but the whole point of NMD is about defending from ICBM's.

If the system were fully in place today, I would say that China would not be much of a threat. China doesn't have very many missiles that can hit CONUS (<25), and none of them are MIRV's. Also, in China's case, they know that retaliation would be inevitable.
 

ajay_ijn

New Member
SRBM, MRBM, and IRBM are not a threat to CONUS. There is nowhere within range to launch from. (with the theoretical exception of Cuba, which we would know about)
Hey I thought NMD program also includes the ballistic Missile Defence for US armed forces in the forward bases.
If the system were fully in place today, I would say that China would not be much of a threat. China doesn't have very many missiles that can hit CONUS (<25), and none of them are MIRV's. Also, in China's case, they know that retaliation would be inevitable.
But the system is not fully deployed yet.
I am sure China will not sit calmly when US will be deploys NMD.
They will surely try to build much capable ICBM to penetrate US defences.
Again arms race will start.
The most Shocking news is China trying to license produce SS-27 Topol Missile as DF-41.
NMD is designed to defend against ICBM's. Theater defence systems like PAC-3 or Arrow are part of terminal phase defence, but the whole point of NMD is about defending from ICBM's.
The major chance of defending ICBM's would be in Boost Phase.
Which means the important Weapon for NMD will be Space Based LASER and AirBorne LASER.
Can SM-3 intercept Ballistic Missiles in boost phase from coast of the enemy country.
Then would come GBI which intercepts Missile in mid-course phase that outside the space
Then would come THAAD,Arrow-2 which are the final defence.
 

highsea

New Member
It's true that it's not deployed yet, and realistically it's many years before it can be considered very functional.

As I mentioned, systems like THAAD and PAC-3 are a component, but that is not really their primary role, as they are first and formost a theater defence system.

I'm sure China will not just sit back and watch too. The biggest threat from China is the 094 Class SSBN, because it's mobile and able to hide. It's a couple years before they can get it in service though, and they have yet to do a successful SLBM launch.

There is also a sea launched interceptor component for going after missiles in the boost phase. The SM-3 can target medium and long range BM's. Ships can be anywhere there is a threat, so that's one of the best ways to target the boost phase. Space based lasers are no good for boost phase interception, because the atmosphere gets in the way. But a space based laser for mid-course interception is potentially viable.

I doubt Russia will give China the Topol. That's their newest missile, and they are just like the US that way, they save their best tech for themselves, especially in missiles. Only recently did they give China the KH-31, and they sold them to us back in the '90's. They wouldn't sell China Moskits unless they bought the Sovremenny Class DDG to go with them. So I think the Topol's are safe with Russia for a while, anyway.
 
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